纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 SP主力合约收盘价： 4804.00 | 日期 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/09/30 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4804.00 | 4834.00 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | 5060.00 | | 折美元价 | 592.24 | 592.24 | 597.56 | 613.50 | 619.75 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.62060% | -0.90201% | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | 0.31721% | | 山东银星基差 | 731 | 731 | 687 | 594 | 550 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 756 | 726 | 682 | 609 | 565 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/09 SP主力合约收盘价： 4834.00 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6200 | -145.57 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5355 | -588.29 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5565 | -136.92 | 注：上一日汇率 - 7.12 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/09/24 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 477 ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【部分#造纸企业2月内涨价10次##纸箱涨价#】近日，多家包装纸企业发布了新一轮调价函，据不完全 统计，这已经是8月以来的第10次涨价。记者了解到，双节来临带来的需求增长，叠加上游原材料废纸 价格的上涨，共同推高了原纸价格。纸企涨价推高下游纸箱成本。有纸企负责人告诉记者，在纸箱的成 本中，所用原纸的成本占比达到了70%到80%，从今年7月底开始，工厂制作纸箱所用的瓦楞纸和牛卡 纸原纸价格就一直上涨，直接推高了成品纸箱的价格。而废纸是制作纸箱原纸的重要原料，采访中记者 了解到，近期废纸需求增加，多地降雨影响了废纸供应，导致废纸的价格也出现了不同程度的上涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The packaging paper prices are steadily increasing, supported by strong seasonal demand and effective price transmission from leading companies like Nine Dragons and Shanying [4] - The price of pulp is stabilizing, with domestic bleached softwood pulp priced at 5725 CNY/ton and bleached hardwood pulp slightly increasing to 4232.5 CNY/ton, indicating a trend towards a balanced supply-demand relationship [4] - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards high-end, green, and intensive development, as evidenced by significant projects like the 280,000-ton specialty paper project by Jindong Paper [4][26] - The valuation of the paper sector remains low historically, with strong cash flow and high certainty in mid-term performance, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - The recent price increases in raw paper are a response to rising costs, with many paperboard manufacturers issuing price hikes of 3%-4% [6] - Leading companies in the packaging paper sector have initiated multiple price increases since August, driven by high raw material costs [7] High-Frequency Data - The average pulp futures inventory has decreased to 239,900 tons, indicating a tightening supply [8] - The average closing price for pulp futures is 4999.2 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [9] Company Events and Announcements - Nine Dragons Paper reported a 135.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 1.767 billion CNY, with significant growth in sales volume and revenue [27] - Jindong Paper's specialty paper project has reached a construction milestone, emphasizing the company's commitment to market transformation and green development [26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the packaging paper sector that are benefiting from seasonal demand and price increases, while also considering companies with clear growth paths and resilience to economic cycles in specialty and consumer paper segments [29]

晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益 数据点评 固定收益研究 初看 REITs 的投资机会（系列四）：收益视角——固定收益专题报告 基金研究 主动偏股基金经理市场状态"能力圈"研究——基金专题报告 金融工程研究 证 支持向量机在量化金融中的应用——金融工程专题报告 券 公司研究 研 内修主业稳健发展，优质资产注入可期——中国稀土（000831）深度报告 究 行业研究 报 包装纸提价向下游扩散，美国关税政策再生变化——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩 ...

纸浆早报 | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指数 | 双铜指数 | 白卡指数 | | 生活指数 | | 2025/09/23 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/24 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/25 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/26 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | 双胶利润率估算 双铜利润率估算 | | 白卡利润率估算 | | 生活利润率估算 | | 2025/09/23 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.6876% | | 2025/09/24 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.7258% | | 2025/09/25 | 1.9958% | 15.6563% | -12. ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 25, 2025, was 5060.00 [3] - The closing prices on September 24, 23, 22, and 19 were 5044.00, 5008.00, 5008.00, and 5018.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding converted US dollar prices were 619.75, 618.06, 614.33, 614.20, and 615.64 [3] - The price changes from the previous day were 0.31721%, 0.71885%, 0.00000%, -0.19928%, and 0.07978% [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 550, 566, 602, 602, and 607 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 565, 581, 617, 617, and 632 respectively [3] Group 2: Import Profit Calculation - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was -154.38, for Canadian Lion pulp was -541.54, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was -99.83 [4] - The port US dollar prices were 780, 730, and 700 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5425, and 5610 [4] Group 3: National and Regional Pulp Price Averages - From September 19 - 25, 2025, the national average prices for softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices for the same types of pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 22 - 25, 2025, the cultural paper (offset paper index, copperplate paper index), packaging paper (white card index), and tissue paper (tissue index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 839 respectively [4] - The profit margins for offset paper, copperplate paper, white card, and tissue paper on September 25 were 1.9958%, 15.6563%, -12.3681%, and 6.6876% respectively [4] - The changes in profit margins were 0.0316, 0.0391, 0.2454, and -0.0382 respectively [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - On September 25, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1370.00, the softwood - natural price spread was 210, the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1810, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4034 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited reported a significant increase in annual performance metrics, yet the stock price declined over 3% following the announcement, indicating market skepticism about future growth potential [1] Financial Performance - Sales volume increased by 9.6% to approximately 21.5 million tons [1] - Revenue rose by approximately 6.3% to 63.241 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit increased by approximately 26.9% to 7.245 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders surged by approximately 135.4% to 1.767 billion yuan [1] Future Capacity Expansion - The company plans to add 2.5 million tons of cultural paper and packaging paper capacity, along with 1.35 million tons of pulp capacity in the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Initial contributions from the increased capacity may be limited and could be offset by lower average pulp prices [1] Profitability Outlook - Citigroup's report suggests that as long as monthly profits remain above 200 million yuan, there is potential for further upward adjustments in profit forecasts for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited reported a significant increase in sales and profits for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, but the stock price fell over 3% following the earnings announcement [1] Financial Performance - Sales volume increased by 9.6% to approximately 21.5 million tons [1] - Revenue rose by approximately 6.3% to 63.241 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit increased by approximately 26.9% to 7.245 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders surged by approximately 135.4% to 1.767 billion yuan [1] Future Capacity Expansion - The company plans to add 2.5 million tons of cultural and packaging paper capacity and 1.35 million tons of pulp capacity in fiscal year 2026 [1] - Initial contributions from the increased capacity may be limited and could be offset by lower average pulp prices [1] Profitability Outlook - Citigroup's report suggests that as long as monthly profits remain above 200 million yuan, there is potential for further upward adjustments in the profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings' net profit for the fiscal year ending June 2025 surged 135% year-on-year to 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with earlier guidance of 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank raised its earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 by 12% to 16% due to better-than-expected performance [1] - The conservative estimate for the fiscal year ending June 2026 is a 43% year-on-year increase in profit to 2.529 billion HKD [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 6.2 HKD to 8 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - The group plans to add 2.5 million tons of cultural and packaging paper capacity and 1.35 million tons of pulp capacity in the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Initial contributions from the increased capacity may be limited and could be offset by lower average pulp prices [1] Group 3: Profitability and Sales Forecast - As long as monthly profits remain above 200 million HKD, there is potential for further upward adjustments in the profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Sales volume for fiscal year 2026 is expected to grow approximately 9% to 23.5 million tons, with a projected net profit per ton of 108 HKD, down from 129 HKD in fiscal year 2025 [1]