Company Overview - Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $0.39, reflecting an 18.2% increase [3] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $61.53 million, marking a significant increase of 182.1% from the previous year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for January 22, 2025, and the actual results will be crucial in determining the stock's near-term price movement [2] - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss may result in a decline [2] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Horizon Bancorp is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +4.24% [10] Historical Performance - Horizon Bancorp has a strong track record, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a +10.81% surprise in the most recent quarter [12][13] Industry Context - In the broader Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, Pathward Financial (CASH) is also expected to report earnings, with an EPS estimate of $1.14, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.6% [17] - Pathward's revenue is projected to be $172.98 million, up 6.3% from the previous year, but it currently has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.88% [18]

Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 11.5% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.How to Determine if a Stock is OversoldWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillato ...

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Bancorp, Inc. will host a conference call on January 23, 2025, to discuss its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, with the news release published on January 22, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The live conference call will take place at 7:30 a.m. CT (8:30 a.m. ET) on January 23, 2025, with access numbers provided for participants from the U.S., Canada, and international locations [2]. - A telephone replay of the call will be available approximately one hour after the conference call ends, accessible until January 31, 2025, with specific dialing instructions for different regions [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Horizon Bancorp, Inc. is a commercial bank holding company with $7.9 billion in assets, serving customers in the Midwest through digital tools and physical branches in Indiana and Michigan [4]. - The company offers a range of retail banking services, including secured consumer lending, personal banking, and wealth management solutions, with commercial lending making up over half of its total loans [4].

Earnings Performance and Predictions - Horizon Bancorp has a history of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 7.02% over the last two quarters [5] - For the most recent quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.41 per share, surpassing the expected $0.37 per share, resulting in a 10.81% surprise [6] - In the previous quarter, Horizon Bancorp reported $0.32 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.31 per share, a surprise of 3.23% [6] Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - Horizon Bancorp currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +4.24%, indicating analysts' bullish outlook on the company's earnings prospects [7] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat [7] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 or better have a 70% chance of producing a positive earnings surprise [2] Analyst Estimates and Predictive Power - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [3] - A positive Earnings ESP increases the odds of an earnings beat, while a negative value reduces predictive power but does not necessarily indicate a miss [7] - Utilizing the Earnings ESP Filter can help identify stocks with high potential for earnings surprises before quarterly reports [4]

Net Income and Earnings - Net income increased by $2.0 million to $18.2 million, or $0.42 per share, for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $16.2 million, or $0.37 per share, for the same period in 2023[173] - Net income declined by $6.9 million to $46.3 million, or $1.06 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $53.2 million, or $1.22 per share, for the same period in 2023[174] - Net income (GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was $18.180 million, up from $14.140 million in June 2024 and $13.991 million in March 2024[221] Net Interest Income and Margin - Net interest income increased by $4.8 million, or 11.5%, for the three months ended September 30, 2024, driven by a 25 basis point increase in the net FTE interest margin to 2.66%[174] - The net FTE interest margin increased by 25 basis points to 2.66% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, due to a favorable mix shift in average interest-earning assets and funding mix[175] - Net interest income increased by $2.0 million to $135.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023[179] - Net FTE interest margin increased by 1 basis point to 2.60% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024[179] - Net FTE interest margin (Non-GAAP) was 2.66% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Net FTE interest margin (non-GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was 2.66%, compared to 2.64% in June 2024 and 2.50% in March 2024[219] - Net interest income (GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was $46.910 million, up from $45.279 million in June 2024 and $43.288 million in March 2024[219] Interest Rates and Sensitivity - A 100 basis points rise in interest rates would decrease net interest income by $7.9 million (3.5%), while a 100 basis points fall would increase net interest income by $2.8 million (1.3%)[226] - The company's net interest income is projected to decrease by $17.7 million (7.9%) with a 200 basis points rise in interest rates[226] - A 100 basis points rise in interest rates is expected to reduce net interest income by $7.9 million (3.5%)[226] - A 100 basis points fall in interest rates is projected to increase net interest income by $2.8 million (1.3%)[226] - A 200 basis points fall in interest rates is expected to decrease net interest income by $2.7 million (1.2%)[226] - The company uses earnings simulation models to assess net interest income sensitivity to interest rate changes over 12- and 24-month periods[225] - Deposit beta assumptions in the simulation model range from 12% to 80% based on underlying products[225] - The company's interest-bearing liabilities are projected to reprice faster than interest-earning assets for the next 100 basis points of declining interest rates[225] Non-Interest Income and Expense - Non-interest expense growth and a decline in non-interest income contributed to the decrease in net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024[174] - The increase in net interest income for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was partially offset by an increase in non-interest expense compared to the year-ago period[173] - Total non-interest income declined by $0.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023[186] - Total non-interest income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $31.9 million, down from $32.4 million in the same period in 2023[184] - Non-interest expense increased by $3.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $6.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, driven by higher salaries, outside services, and other expenses[191] - Salaries and employee benefits expense increased by $1.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $3.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, due to hiring efforts and legacy benefits program expenses[192][193] Loans and Deposits - Total loans HFI increased by $383.5 million, or 8.8%, to $4.8 billion as of September 30, 2024, led by organic commercial loan growth[205] - Total deposit balances increased by $62.1 million, or 1.1%, to $5.7 billion as of September 30, 2024, with a focus on core commercial and consumer deposits[206] - Total borrowings decreased by $87.9 million, or 6.5%, to $1.3 billion as of September 30, 2024, due to repayment of Federal Home Loan Bank advances[207] - Loans receivable averaged $4,775.8 million with an average rate of 6.32% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Interest-bearing deposits averaged $3,386.2 million with an average rate of 2.14% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] Credit Quality and Allowance for Credit Losses - The ACL balance increased to $52.9 million, or 1.10% of period-end loans HFI, up from $50.0 million at December 31, 2023[210] - Total non-accrual loans increased by $3.9 million, or 19.6%, to 0.49% of total loans HFI as of September 30, 2024[211] - Net charge-offs for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $0.4 million, or 3 basis points annualized of average loans[212] - Total non-performing assets increased by $3.8 million, or 17.4%, to 0.32% of total assets as of September 30, 2024[211] - Provision for credit losses on loans increased by $1.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $4.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, driven by loan growth and changes in economic forecasts[196][197] Investment Securities and Other Assets - Investment securities available for sale decreased by $6.1 million to $541.2 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to December 31, 2023[209] - Securities held to maturity decreased by $57.3 million to $1.9 billion as of September 30, 2024[209] - Federal Home Loan Bank stock averaged $53.8 million with an average rate of 11.88% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - The Bank had approximately $1.52 billion in unused credit lines with various money center banks as of September 30, 2024[215] Equity and Capital Ratios - Stockholders' equity totaled $754.8 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to $718.8 million at December 31, 2023[216] - Tangible common equity totaled $588.5 million at September 30, 2024, with a ratio of tangible common equity to tangible assets of 7.58%[216] - The dividend payout ratio was 45.3% for the first nine months of 2024, compared to 39.3% for the same period in 2023[216] - Total tangible common equity (non-GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was $588.544 million, up from $559.544 million in June 2024 and $553.285 million in March 2024[222] - Tangible common equity to tangible assets (non-GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was 7.58%, compared to 7.22% in June 2024 and 7.20% in March 2024[222] - Tangible book value per common share (non-GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was $13.46, up from $12.80 in June 2024 and $12.65 in March 2024[223] - Return on average tangible common equity (ROACE) (non-GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was 12.65%, compared to 10.18% in June 2024 and 10.11% in March 2024[221] Risks and Accounting Estimates - The company's critical accounting estimates include the allowance for credit losses, goodwill and intangible assets, mortgage servicing rights, hedge accounting, and valuation measurements[172] - The company identified risks such as changes in interest rates, inflation, and the impact of cryptocurrencies on deposit disintermediation and payment system income[169] - The company highlighted potential risks from cyber terrorism, data security breaches, and the rising costs of effective cybersecurity[170] - The company noted the risks of expansion through mergers and acquisitions, including unexpected credit quality problems and difficulty integrating acquired operations[170] Internal Controls and Reporting - The company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of September 30, 2024, ensuring timely and accurate reporting[228] - Horizon's disclosure controls and procedures were evaluated as effective as of September 30, 2024[228] - No material changes in internal control over financial reporting were identified during the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2024[229] Interest Income and Expense Details - Total interest earning assets averaged $7,330.3 million with an average rate of 5.04% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Total interest bearing liabilities averaged $5,961.9 million with an average rate of 2.93% for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Net FTE interest income (non-GAAP) was $48.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Net interest income was $46.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024[177] - Total interest income increased by $10.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, driven by higher loan interest income[183] - Net interest income rose by $4.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, despite a $3.2 million decrease due to rate changes[183] - Loans receivable interest income increased by $12.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, with a significant contribution from rate changes[183] - Interest-bearing deposits expense increased by $5.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to rate changes[183] - Federal Home Loan Bank stock interest income increased by $989,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023[183] - Interest income (GAAP) for September 30, 2024, was $90.888 million, showing an increase from $86.981 million in June 2024 and $85.264 million in March 2024[219] Service Charges and Fees - Service charges on deposit accounts increased to $9.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $9.1 million in the same period in 2023[184] - Service charges on deposit accounts increased by $0.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $0.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same periods in 2023[187] - Interchange fees increased by $0.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $0.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, driven by growth in qualified debit card volume[188] - Mortgage servicing income decreased by $0.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $0.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, due to higher amortization expense of mortgage servicing rights[189] - Cash value of bank-owned life insurance decreased by $0.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $2.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, due to policy surrenders in Q4 2023[190] Total Assets and Liabilities - Total average assets for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $7.82 billion, slightly lower than the $7.87 billion in the same period in 2023[181] - Net FTE interest margin (Non-GAAP) remained stable at 2.60% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 2.59% in the same period in 2023[181]

Group 1: Momentum Investing Overview - Momentum investing involves following a stock's recent trend, with the strategy of buying high and selling higher, capitalizing on established price movements [1] - The Zacks Momentum Style Score helps define momentum characteristics, with Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) currently holding a Momentum Style Score of A [2][3] Group 2: Performance Metrics of Horizon Bancorp - HBNC shares have increased by 1.47% over the past week, while the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry has decreased by 1.49% during the same period [5] - Over the last month, HBNC's price change is 6.56%, outperforming the industry's 0.87% [5] - In the last quarter, HBNC shares rose by 8.38%, and over the past year, they have increased by 70.53%, compared to the S&P 500's 7.91% and 40.48% respectively [6] Group 3: Trading Volume and Earnings Outlook - The average 20-day trading volume for HBNC is 147,733 shares, indicating a bullish sign if the stock is rising with above-average volume [7] - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for HBNC has increased, raising the consensus estimate from $1.38 to $1.41 [9] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards, with no downward revisions noted [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendation - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, HBNC is rated as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a potential pick for near-term investment [9]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Investor | | | | | | Presentation | | | | | | H o r i z o n B a n c o r p , I n c . ( N A S D A Q : H B N C ) | | | T h i r d Q u a r t e r E n d e d S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 2 4 O c t o b e r 2 4 , 2 0 2 4 | | Beyond ordinary banking Important Information Forward-Looking Statements This press release may contain forward–looking statements regarding ...

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:HBNC) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Thomas Prame - President and Chief Executive Officer Lynn Kerber - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Banking Officer John Stewart - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Brendan Nosal - Hovde Group Terry McEvoy - Stephens Nathan Race - Piper Sandler Damon DelMonte - KBW Brian Martin - Janney Montgomery Operator Good morning, everyone an ...

Financial Performance - Horizon Bancorp reported $58 42 million in revenue for Q3 2024, a YoY increase of 8 4% [1] - EPS for the quarter was $0 41, compared to $0 37 a year ago, representing a YoY growth [1] - Revenue surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $58 23 million by 0 32% [1] - EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0 37 by 10 81% [1] Key Metrics Analysis - Efficiency Ratio: 67 2%, higher than the three-analyst average estimate of 64 7% [2] - Net Interest Margin: 2 7%, in line with the three-analyst average estimate [2] - Net Charge-offs: 0%, below the two-analyst average estimate of 0 1% [2] - Average Balance of Total Interest Earning Assets: $7 33 billion, slightly above the $7 31 billion estimate [2] - Gain on Sale of Mortgage Loans: $1 62 million, exceeding the $1 10 million estimate [2] - Total Non-Interest Income: $11 51 million, higher than the $10 85 million estimate [2] - Net Interest Income: $46 91 million, slightly below the $47 31 million estimate [2] - Wire Transfer Fees: $0 12 million, above the $0 11 million estimate [2] - Mortgage Servicing Income Net of Impairment: $0 41 million, below the $0 48 million estimate [2] - Service Charges on Deposit Accounts: $3 32 million, above the $3 22 million estimate [2] - Other Income: $0 78 million, exceeding the $0 65 million estimate [2] - Fiduciary Activities: $1 39 million, slightly below the $1 41 million estimate [2] Stock Performance - Horizon Bancorp shares returned -2 6% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2 7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near term [3]

Company Performance - Horizon Bancorp reported quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.37 per share, and up from $0.37 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 10.81% [1] - The company posted revenues of $58.42 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.32%, and an increase from $53.92 million year-over-year [1] - Horizon Bancorp has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters [1] Market Outlook - Horizon Bancorp shares have increased by approximately 5.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 22.7% [2] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.37 on revenues of $58.73 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.38 on revenues of $226.3 million [4] Industry Context - The Banks - Northeast industry, to which Horizon Bancorp belongs, is currently ranked in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [5] - Another company in the same industry, First Mid Bancshares, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.84 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1%, with revenues projected at $79.5 million, up 8.2% from the previous year [5]