美国降息下地产链受益标的梳理及深度复盘 20250825 摘要 美国二手房成交量处于历史低位，仅约 400 万套，与高利率环境相关， 接近金融危机时期水平，但底部盘旋时间更长，预示着潜在的需求积压。 尽管加息，2023-2025 年美国房价持续创新高，较五年前上涨 50%， 显示地产周期健康，被压制的需求可能带来影响，类似于 2008 年，但 底部盘旋更久。 嘉德宝（Home Depot）股价自 2008 年以来上涨 15 倍，近期财报显 示收入增长 2.8%，同店销售增长 1%，净利润小幅下滑，经营状况稳定， 小型住宅施工缓慢提升，但整体翻修量未恢复。 嘉德宝预计未来十年受益于持续降息，小型住宅施工缓慢提升，但整体 翻修量仍低于平均水平，大型施工项目需等待降息，对未来发展持乐观 态度。 嘉德宝作为美国家居建材零售龙头，市占率超 30%，且持续提升，未来 有望突破 40%，受益于市场规模扩大，劳氏、Wayfair 等公司也将受益。 美股已开始炒作地产复苏标的，如嘉德宝、劳氏、Open Door 等， Open Door 在鲍威尔降息表态后股价大涨，史丹利百得、Wayfair 等 公司也表现出色。 中国及港股中 ...

Core Insights - Investors are encouraged to consider dividend-paying stocks for steady returns amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Top Wall Street analysts provide recommendations to help identify attractive dividend-paying stocks [2] MPLX LP - MPLX LP is a diversified master limited partnership (MLP) focused on midstream energy infrastructure and logistics, recently acquiring Northwind Delaware Holdings LLC for approximately $2.38 billion [3] - The company reported distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1.4 billion for Q2, allowing for a capital return of $1.1 billion, with a current dividend yield of 7.5% [4] - Analyst Selman Akyol from Stifel reaffirmed a buy rating on MPLX, raising the price forecast to $60 from $57, citing growth potential from the Northwind acquisition [5][6] - Akyol expects MPLX to grow its distribution at 12.5% over the next several years, with a historical EBITDA and DCF growth rate of 7% over the past four years [6][7] EOG Resources - EOG Resources, an oil and gas exploration and production company, paid $528 million in dividends and repurchased $600 million in shares during Q2, with a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, yielding 3.4% [8] - Analyst Scott Hanold from RBC Capital reiterated a buy rating on EOG, setting a price target of $140, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a price target of $133 [9] - EOG is expanding its position in the Utica shale through the acquisition of Encino Acquisition Partners, with expectations of significant operational improvements [11] - Hanold anticipates EOG's natural gas exposure to exceed 3 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2025, supported by its Dorado development and opportunities in the Utica [12][13] - EOG's strong balance sheet allows for high shareholder returns, with a commitment to increasing dividends despite macro uncertainties [14][15] Home Depot - Home Depot's Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue fell short of expectations, but the company maintained its full-year guidance, with a quarterly dividend of $2.30, yielding 2.2% [16] - Analyst Scot Ciccarelli from Truist reiterated a buy rating on Home Depot, raising the price forecast to $454 from $433, citing improving trends in core business categories [17][18] - Home Depot experienced broad sales growth across categories and geographies, with a 2.6% increase in big-ticket transactions over $1,000 in Q2 [19] - The company is less affected by tariff volatility compared to peers, attributed to its buying power and diversified sourcing model [20]

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 08 月 24 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 软体龙头 Q2 略超预期，包装纸价延续小幅回暖 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】本周顾家家居、喜临门发布中报，均略好于市场预期，市场情 绪底部关注家居估值修复；玖龙纸业 FY25 业绩预告高增，8 月以来包装 纸价持续小幅回升，金九银十旺季在即，看好废纸系需求回暖；思摩尔国 际发布中报，电子烟 ODM 及自有品牌业务受益美国监管执法趋严、欧洲 换弹式恢复表现亮眼，营收及盈利企稳向上。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：7 月个护电商改善，中美 关税暂缓关注出口链——2025.08.17 2、轻工 ...

2025年08月24日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 资金流向：整体流入接近停滞，行业间分化较大 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+1.7（亿美元，下同），上周为+75.8，近4周为-75.0，近13周为+209.2。 18个行业资金流入，6个行业资金流出。资金流入的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+11.0）、综合金融（+4.6）、银行（+3.8）、资本品（+3.3）、医疗保健设备 与服务（+3.3）；资金流出的行业主要有：软件与服务（-29.9）、半导体产品与设备（-7.7）、食品与主要用品零售（-4.7）、技术硬件与设备（-2.3）、媒 体与娱乐（-1.1）。 盈 ...

Group 1: Home Depot - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, known for its high sales and popularity among consumers and contractors [4] - Recent sluggish sales are attributed to homeowners delaying major projects due to high interest rates and inflation affecting spending power [4][5] - In the fiscal second quarter, same-store sales increased by 1%, with foreign currency translations negatively impacting results by 0.4 percentage points [5] - The company has consistently prioritized dividend payments, with a history of increasing payouts annually since 2010, even during economic downturns [6][7] - Home Depot generated $7.2 billion in free cash flow in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding the $4.6 billion in dividends paid [8] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.3%, which is over 1 percentage point higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.2% [8] Group 2: Target - Target has been a popular shopping destination for basic and exclusive merchandise, but sales have been affected by high prices and recent boycotts related to management decisions [9][10] - The fiscal second-quarter same-store sales dropped by 1.9%, with lower traffic accounting for a 1.3 percentage point decline [11] - Target announced a 1.8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.14, maintaining a commitment to dividend growth since 1967, making it a Dividend King [12] - The company has a payout ratio of 52%, indicating it can comfortably sustain the increased dividend payments [12] - At the new dividend rate, Target's stock yields approximately 4.6% [12]

Company Overview - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, operating over 2,300 stores across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico [1][4] - The company has faced challenges in expanding outside North America, resulting in fewer than one new location opened per month [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Home Depot reported revenue of $85 billion, reflecting a 7% growth compared to the same period in 2024 [9] - Operating income grew by only 0.6% due to costs of sales and operating expenses rising faster than revenue [10] - Net income for the first two quarters of 2025 was $8 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-over-year [10] Dividend and Valuation - Home Depot's current annual dividend payout is $9.20 per share, yielding 2.25%, which is above the S&P 500 average of 1.2% [12] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just over 27, below the S&P 500 average of 30, but may be perceived as pricey given the slow growth [14] Future Outlook - Over the next five years, Home Depot is expected to provide rising dividends and higher returns, but not sufficient to outperform the S&P 500 [15] - The company is likely to benefit from slow, steady returns, but lacks meaningful growth prospects beyond inflation and population increases [16] - The rising dividend is expected to continue benefiting shareholders, but underperformance may lead investors to seek opportunities elsewhere [17]

Cruise through market volatility with these high-yielding stocks.Dividend investing allows you to have the best businesses in the world automatically send cash to your account on a regular basis. Investors looking to boost their passive income can find attractive dividend yields right now in the consumer goods sector.To give you some ideas, read why three Motley Fool contributors recently selected Home Depot (HD 3.84%), JD.com (JD 2.17%), and Target (TGT 1.98%) as strong buys right now. A clear industry lea ...

The company maintains its reputation as a not-bad dividend stock in the retail sector.Shareholders in Home Depot (HD 3.84%) are getting more coins in their pockets, and they reacted happily to this news on Friday. As a group, they pushed the DIY retailer's stock up by almost 4% during that trading session, a lift that was more than good enough to beat the S&P 500 index's rather frothy 1.5% increase.Extending the long history of the dividendJust after market close on Thursday, Home Depot announced that its b ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole indicate a shift towards an easing stance, surprising many investors who anticipated a more cautious approach [5][6][9] - The labor market's actual job growth was revealed to be significantly weaker than previously thought, with only 35,000 jobs added per month instead of the expected 150,000 [5][6] - Markets are now pricing in a full easing cycle, with speculation about multiple rate cuts in 2025 and beyond [10][11] Retail Sector Performance - Walmart reported a revenue beat driven by a 25% increase in e-commerce sales but missed on earnings due to tariff-related costs, leading to a 4% decline in stock price [12][13] - Home Depot also missed earnings expectations and indicated plans to raise prices due to tariffs, despite a slight increase in stock price following its earnings report [14][15] - The retail sector is facing margin pressures from increased tariffs, prompting strategic price adjustments [13][15] Technology Sector Insights - NVIDIA is set to report earnings next week, with ongoing debates about its valuation versus long-term growth prospects in the AI sector [16][18] - The stock has experienced significant appreciation over the past few years, raising concerns about its ability to maintain growth rates [16][18] - Other AI-related stocks, such as Palantir, Oracle, and AMD, have seen recent declines, indicating potential skepticism about the sustainability of their growth [23][24][25] Upcoming Earnings and Market Reactions - A number of high-profile retailers are expected to report earnings next week, including Dollar General and Abercrombie and Fitch, which will provide further insights into the retail landscape [26] - The bond market is anticipated to react strongly to Powell's upcoming speech, which may influence interest rates and investor sentiment [22]

Core Insights - Retailers are facing rising tariff costs but have managed to avoid significant price hikes for consumers so far [2][3][5] - Consumer spending remains steady, with some retailers reporting healthy sales of discretionary items [8][11][12] - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including diversifying sourcing and adjusting pricing carefully [16][20][28] Group 1: Retail Performance - Walmart and Tapestry have raised their sales outlooks for the year, indicating strong consumer demand for discretionary items [8][12] - Sales of fashion items at Walmart accelerated, with specific high-demand products selling out quickly [9][29] - Lower-income shoppers are more sensitive to price changes, affecting their purchasing behavior [11][12] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Mitigation - Retailers have absorbed some tariff costs while passing others onto consumers, but the overall impact has been less severe than anticipated [5][21][30] - Companies like Home Depot and Lowe's are focusing on home professionals to stabilize traffic amid uncertain consumer spending [25][26] - Walmart has benefited from diversified revenue streams, including a 46% growth in global advertising [26][28] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Retailers are importing goods from a wider range of countries and stocking up on high-frequency purchases to mitigate tariff impacts [16][20] - Some brands, like Birkenstock and Coach, have successfully increased prices without losing customer demand [29][30] - Companies are adjusting inventory strategies, with Crocs reducing orders and swapping out older inventory for fresher styles [32]