大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理·芒格和指数基金之父约翰·博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的 理念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 巴菲特的价值投资理念 这一期螺丝钉带你读书，咱们介绍的，是一本2025年底，新出的投资书籍，《投资的护城河》。 这本书是晨星公司，围绕巴菲特的护城河投资理念，做的相应讲解。 这本书，可以跟上一期，螺丝钉介绍的《 柏基投资之道 》做一个对比。 他们分别代表了，投资中的两种不同投资风格，以及投资企业的不同生命周期。 价值投资很少投资早期企业 之前咱们介绍过企业的生命周期。 企业从上市开始，会经历： 高速增长。 增长速度快。 缓，但可以通过裁员降薪、提高效率的方式，盈利高速增长。 估值、高分红的特征。 · 深度成长：IPO成功，企业获得大笔资金，收入开始 · 成长：企业拥有 ...

蒋光祥 可见，巴菲特的退休冲击远超商业范畴。"股神"隐退后，"奥马哈先知"的理性能否永存，是一个值得我 们深思的话题。因为先知闪耀60年的同时，我们见过太多看不上其20%左右长期年化收益率的A股"大 神"，甚至可以预见将来也会有很多对"价值投资"嗤之以鼻的声音。好在历史会证明一切，更会无情戳 穿某些"二把刀"行为范式的装神弄鬼。投资从来不靠脸皮厚度取胜，对自己在A股的投资还没玩明白， 就以各种开课、收徒的方式开割的"宵小"之辈，中小投资者需擦亮眼睛。 格雷格·阿贝尔接替巴菲特，实际上是巴菲特社会影响力的代际迁移。真正的考验不在明天，而在未来 五年甚至更久。当市场再次陷入狂热或恐慌、当股东高呼"做点什么"时，格雷格·阿贝尔能否信守那句 最朴素的信条——"别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪"？如果能，不仅巴菲特心安，投资者也会觉 得"英雄"还在。 本报专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点，特此说明。 （文章来源：证券时报） 2025年的最后一天，沃伦·巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，这位95岁的投资大师 用60年时间创造了61000倍的投资回报神话，其价值投资理念深刻重塑了全球资本市场的认知范式。其 卸任标志 ...

可见，巴菲特的退休冲击远超商业范畴。"股神"隐退后，"奥马哈先知"的理性能否永存，是一个值得我们深思的话 题。因为先知闪耀60年的同时，我们见过太多看不上其20%左右长期年化收益率的A股"大神"，甚至可以预见将来 也会有很多对"价值投资"嗤之以鼻的声音。好在历史会证明一切，更会无情戳穿某些"二把刀"行为范式的装神弄 鬼。投资从来不靠脸皮厚度取胜，对自己在A股的投资还没玩明白，就以各种开课、收徒的方式开割的"宵小"之 辈，中小投资者需擦亮眼睛。 格雷格·阿贝尔接替巴菲特，实际上是巴菲特社会影响力的代际迁移。真正的考验不在明天，而在未来五年甚至更 久。当市场再次陷入狂热或恐慌、当股东高呼"做点什么"时，格雷格·阿贝尔能否信守那句最朴素的信条——"别人 贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪"？如果能，不仅巴菲特心安，投资者也会觉得"英雄"还在。 本报专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点，特此说明。 当然，巴菲特的退休并非彻底的隐退，他保留了董事会主席职务，并继续持有约30%的投票权，维持日常到访奥 马哈总部的习惯。这一细节至关重要，它意味着巴菲特要将继任者格雷格·阿贝尔"扶上马、送一程"。 这些年来，不论哪一个国家的股市，但凡买过股票 ...

2025年12月31日，沃伦·巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，这位95岁的投资大师用 60年时间创造了61000倍的投资回报神话，将伯克希尔塑造成为价值投资的图腾，其价值投资理念深刻 重塑了全球资本市场的认知范式。巴菲特的卸任标志着全球投资界一个传奇时代的终结，以及"后巴菲 特时代"的正式开启。这不仅仅是一位商业巨擘的退休，更是一种投资哲学、一种公司治理模式乃至一 种商业文化符号的交接与传承。 巴菲特对投资如此，对人也是如此，在2025年11月的谢幕信中，巴菲特用大量篇幅温情回忆了在奥马哈 的成长岁月、与查理·芒格64年的友谊，以及众多来自奥马哈或与之结缘的伙伴。这并非闲笔，而是对 其成功密码的一种揭示：对社区、对朋友、对简单而核心价值的坚守，构成了他庞大商业帝国的人文基 石。 巴菲特的慈善事业同样恢弘，自2010年与盖茨夫妇发起"捐赠誓言"以来，已累计捐出超过600亿美元， 并承诺将几乎全部财富用于慈善。他对遗产的豁达处理同样引发了中外富豪的效仿。 格雷格·阿贝尔接替巴菲特，实际上是巴菲特社会影响力的代际迁移。真正的考验不在明天，而在未来 五年甚至更久。当市场再次陷入狂热或恐慌、当股东高呼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on Warren Buffett's investment philosophy and legacy, emphasizing the importance of his investment principles and the implications of his retirement for investors and the market [1][9][20]. Group 1: Buffett's Investment Principles - Principle One: Avoid blindly copying Buffett's stock-picking strategy; instead, invest 90% in S&P 500 index funds and 10% in short-term government bonds for stability [11][14]. - Principle Two: If choosing stocks independently, focus on a few high-quality companies rather than diversifying too much; Buffett's portfolio is heavily weighted in a few key stocks [15]. - Principle Three: Maintain a long-term perspective and be prepared to endure market fluctuations; successful investors often hold stocks through downturns [16]. Group 2: The Concept of "Economic Moat" - Principle Four: Invest in companies with a "moat," meaning they possess a sustainable competitive advantage that can withstand market changes [17]. - Principle Five: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," highlighting the need for courage in investment decisions during market volatility [18]. Group 3: Legacy and Future of Berkshire Hathaway - Buffett's retirement raises questions about the future of Berkshire Hathaway and whether the company's success can continue without his direct influence [20][21]. - The article suggests that Buffett's investment philosophy will remain relevant, but the challenge lies in whether successors can uphold these principles effectively [20].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the distinction between investing and speculating, highlighting that investing requires understanding and knowledge of the underlying assets, while speculation often leads to higher risks and potential losses [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment should focus on areas where one has genuine understanding and knowledge, as this leads to better decision-making and potential profitability [2][4] - The intrinsic value of a company is determined by the present value of its future cash flows, and stocks should be purchased when they are priced below this intrinsic value [4][12] - A strong corporate culture is considered a crucial component of a company's competitive advantage, or "moat," which helps in assessing its intrinsic value [6][27] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that successful investing often involves a concentrated portfolio, where a few well-understood companies are held for the long term, rather than diversifying too broadly [10][11] - It is advised to avoid investments that require complex calculations for valuation, as simpler assessments are often more effective [7][20] - The importance of patience and waiting for the right investment opportunities is emphasized, as well as the need to reassess investments regularly based on changing circumstances [11][34] Group 3: Risk Management - The article warns against using leverage in investments, as it can lead to significant risks and potential losses [24][25] - Investors should be cautious of market trends and focus on the intrinsic value of companies rather than external market perceptions [18][19] - The concept of "margin of safety" is highlighted, suggesting that investments should be made with a significant buffer between the purchase price and the intrinsic value to mitigate risks [12][24] Group 4: Learning and Experience - The article stresses that understanding investment principles often comes from experience and learning from past mistakes rather than formal education [2][3] - It is noted that successful investors often have a deep understanding of their chosen industries, which allows them to identify opportunities that others may overlook [21][22] - Continuous learning and adapting to new information is crucial for long-term investment success [28][29]

Core Argument - The article argues that the "moat" theory, which has dominated business strategy for the past three decades, is becoming obsolete as the world transitions to a new strategic paradigm called the "consensus plain" [2][3][5]. Group 1: The Decline of the Moat Theory - The moat theory, introduced by Warren Buffett in 1993, emphasized the importance of having a strong competitive advantage to protect investment returns from competitors [2]. - Historical examples illustrate how established companies like Coca-Cola, Kodak, and Walmart have seen their competitive advantages eroded by new entrants that leverage changing consumer preferences and technological advancements [3][5]. - The moat's effectiveness is diminishing as the business landscape shifts from a closed castle model to an open value network model, leading to a strategic paradigm shift [5]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Moat - The moat consists of three essential elements: scarcity, control, and isolation, which were relevant during the industrial era characterized by limited resources [9]. - Brand moats rely on monopolizing consumer perception through significant advertising investments [9]. - Patent moats utilize legal protections to create exclusive advantages based on technological scarcity [9]. - Scale moats achieve cost advantages through high production volumes, allowing companies to dominate pricing [9]. Group 3: Forces Eroding the Moat - Three converging forces are dismantling the moat: the abundance of resources, the networked nature of value creation, and the fluidity of consumer consensus [12][10]. - The abundance of resources, facilitated by cloud computing and open-source movements, has transformed previously scarce resources into accessible infrastructures [12]. - Value is increasingly generated within interconnected ecosystems rather than solely within individual companies, diminishing the relevance of traditional moats [12]. - Consumer loyalty is shifting from static brand recognition to dynamic engagement with values and narratives, making traditional brand moats vulnerable [12]. Group 4: The Consensus Plain Strategy - The "consensus plain" strategy emerges as a new approach when moat logic fails, characterized by an open value creation and exchange environment [13]. - The consensus plain is defined by a shared vision and collaborative rules, attracting participants who contribute to its value [15]. - A strong consensus plain consists of three layers: narrative consensus (the overarching story), rule consensus (operational guidelines), and value consensus (how value is shared) [16]. Group 5: Constructing the Consensus Plain - Building a consensus plain involves a four-step foundational method: identifying value vacuums, crafting a compelling narrative, designing initial rules, and initiating a "cold start flywheel" [22][23]. - Identifying areas with unmet needs is crucial for establishing a consensus plain, as demonstrated by Pinduoduo's focus on price-sensitive consumers [24]. - A powerful narrative serves as the gravitational force for the consensus plain, as seen in Huawei's vision for a unified operating system [29]. - Initial rules must be simple and transparent, facilitating participation and collaboration, as exemplified by BYD's open supply chain model [30]. Group 6: The Evolution of Rules in the Consensus Plain - The power lies in the continuous definition and evolution of rules within the consensus plain, requiring companies to transition from product managers to civilization architects [36]. - Rule definition grants significant commercial power, as illustrated by NVIDIA's dominance through its CUDA ecosystem [37]. - Rules must evolve to maintain vitality and balance, necessitating gradual experimentation and community governance [40]. Group 7: Interactions Between Consensus Plains - As multiple consensus plains coexist, competition and cooperation create a complex landscape, leading to various relationships such as absorption, bridging, and confrontation [50][51]. - The collaboration between national-level and regional plains exemplifies how different levels can resonate and enhance overall value creation [55].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett announced he will no longer write Berkshire Hathaway's annual report or give long speeches at the annual shareholder meeting, indicating a transition to a quieter phase in his career [2][3]. Group 1: Transition of Leadership - Buffett will step down as CEO at the end of the year, with Greg Abel set to take over, while Buffett will remain as chairman and retain a significant number of shares [3]. - At 95 years old, Buffett acknowledges his declining physical abilities but continues to work five days a week at the office [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Achievements - Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved from the "cigar butt" approach, focusing on undervalued companies, to a "moat" strategy, emphasizing companies with sustainable competitive advantages [10][11][14]. - Berkshire Hathaway's annualized return from 1965 to 2024 is 19.9%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10.4% during the same period, showcasing Buffett's successful investment strategies [5][16]. Group 3: Notable Investments - Buffett's investment in PetroChina during the SARS outbreak in 2003 yielded approximately 7 times the return, demonstrating his ability to identify undervalued opportunities [6]. - His investment in BYD, initiated during the 2008 financial crisis, resulted in a return of over 600 billion HKD from an initial investment of 1.8 billion HKD [6]. Group 4: Business Structure of Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway's business model is characterized by a foundation in insurance, stable cash flow from various businesses, and stock investments for capital appreciation [18][19]. - The insurance segment, including GEICO and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, provides low-cost float capital for investments [18]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The investment landscape has changed, making it difficult to replicate Buffett's past successes due to market efficiency and the evolution of investment opportunities [22][24]. - Buffett predicts that in the next decade, many companies may outperform Berkshire Hathaway, indicating the challenges of maintaining growth at scale [30]. Group 6: Comparison with Chinese Investors - The article discusses the absence of a "Chinese Buffett," attributing it to the relatively short history of the Chinese capital market and the lack of long-term investment culture [38][40]. - However, it notes that as the Chinese market matures and improves in governance, there may emerge unique investment legends in the future [42][43].

Group 1 - Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement in the annual shareholder letter of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of an era for the legendary investor [2][4] - Buffett will pass the CEO position to Greg Abel by the end of the year while remaining as chairman, indicating a strategic transition for the company [2][4] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash and equivalents reached a record high of $358 billion at the end of the third quarter, providing ample resources for future acquisitions under Abel's leadership [4] Group 2 - Buffett's investment philosophy, heavily influenced by Benjamin Graham, emphasizes investing in companies with a strong "moat" and predictable cash flows, particularly in consumer goods, finance, and insurance sectors [5][7] - Despite his initial reluctance, Buffett gradually embraced technology investments, viewing successful tech companies through the lens of consumer brands with strong customer loyalty [15][20] - Buffett's significant investments in Apple and Amazon reflect a shift in his strategy, recognizing their strong market positions and brand loyalty, leading to substantial returns [20][23] Group 3 - Buffett's cautious approach to technology stocks, including missed opportunities with companies like IBM and Microsoft, highlights his preference for understanding the business model before investing [10][19] - The investment in BYD, a leading electric vehicle manufacturer, showcases Buffett's willingness to invest in innovative technologies when backed by strong fundamentals [25][27] - Despite the current AI boom, Buffett remains skeptical and cautious, emphasizing the importance of value investing principles and the need for regulatory oversight in the AI sector [30]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett's retirement marks a significant turning point in the era of value investing, ending an iconic chapter in investment history [4][9]. Group 1: Retirement Announcement - Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement in the annual shareholder letter of Berkshire Hathaway, symbolizing the end of his legendary investment career [6]. - Buffett will pass the CEO position to Greg Abel by the end of the year while remaining as chairman [6][7]. - The iconic Berkshire shareholder meetings will conclude without Buffett's presence, raising questions about future attendance [6][7]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's investment philosophy, influenced by Benjamin Graham, emphasizes "margin of safety" and investing in companies with a strong "moat" [9][10]. - He has historically avoided technology stocks due to their unpredictable nature and rapid changes, preferring stable consumer goods and financial companies [10][12]. - Buffett's cautious approach led him to miss significant tech investment opportunities, such as IBM and Microsoft, which he deemed outside his understanding [12][13][14]. Group 3: Technology Investments - Over the years, Buffett gradually shifted his perspective on technology, beginning to view certain tech companies as consumer brands with strong customer loyalty [17][20]. - His investment in Apple, which became Berkshire's largest single investment, was based on viewing it as a consumer products company rather than a tech firm [20][21]. - Buffett's investment in Amazon was also driven by its strong market position and customer loyalty, despite initially being pushed by his deputies [22]. Group 4: Notable Investments - Berkshire's investment in BYD in 2008 yielded over 40 times returns, showcasing Buffett's successful foray into the tech sector [26][27]. - Despite investing in BYD, Buffett has consistently avoided Tesla, citing a lack of predictability and a belief that the automotive industry lacks a strong moat [27][28]. - Buffett remains cautious about the AI sector, likening its potential impact to "nuclear weapon-level influence" and emphasizing the need for government regulation [29].