There’s only one king of predictions markets and it’s PolymarketTheir opposition is not for the people.CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap):LATEST: ⚡ Robinhood announced it will establish a futures and derivatives exchange via a joint venture with Susquehanna to expand its prediction markets offerings, with the new exchange expected to begin operations in 2026. https://t.co/4tZXuIfJE1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets is making a strategic move into prediction markets by acquiring a controlling stake in LedgerX, aiming to capitalize on the growing popularity of trading contracts that predict future events [1][3]. Company Summary - Robinhood's shares rose by 10.7% to $12.81, reflecting positive market sentiment as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also gained [1][2]. - The company has a market capitalization of $104 billion, with a gross margin of 89.78% [2]. - The deal with Miami International Holdings will result in Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group owning a combined 90% stake in LedgerX, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 [2][3]. Industry Summary - Prediction markets, where investors trade contracts predicting measurable future events, have gained significant traction and investment from traditional market players [3]. - The recent investment of $2 billion by Intercontinental Exchange in Polymarket highlights the increasing interest and potential in this sector [3].

Core Insights - Robinhood is expanding its prediction markets business by launching a new futures and derivatives exchange in partnership with Susquehanna International Group, which has led to a 10% increase in its stock price, making it one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 [2][7]. Group 1: Business Expansion - The new exchange aims to enhance Robinhood's offerings in prediction markets, which have seen significant growth, with the company doubling its volume every quarter since launch, reaching 2.3 billion contracts in the third quarter [9]. - Robinhood has acquired a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed derivatives clearing house, with the deal expected to close in the first quarter of next year [5]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Robinhood is positioning itself as a one-stop shop for trading in stocks, crypto, and event contracts, as well as banking and mortgage services, aiming to attract larger customers [3][4]. - The company faces competition from other players in the prediction markets space, such as Polymarket, which recently received regulatory approval to resume U.S. operations [4].

Market Overview - U.S. equities continued to rise, with major indexes extending a multi-day winning streak, driven by optimism for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and dovish economic data releases [1][8] - The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, climbing 1%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% each, marking their fourth consecutive day of gains [2][3] Economic Indicators - Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are high, with probabilities around 80-85%, supported by weaker-than-expected economic data [3][6] - Recent economic data included a decline in September retail sales, a softer Producer Price Index (PPI), decreased consumer confidence, and a drop in private payrolls [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks were the primary drivers of the market rally, with the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks significantly contributing to the overall market performance [4] - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR and Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR also performed well, gaining 2.3% and 2.1% respectively, while the housing sector benefited from a decline in Treasury yields [4] Corporate News and Stock Highlights - Apple shares rose about 1% as it is expected to surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years [7] - Dell Technologies surged 6-6.4% after announcing record orders for its AI servers, indicating strong demand in the AI infrastructure space [11] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose approximately 3.5%, while Broadcom gained about 3% [11] - Nvidia experienced a significant drop of 2.6-3.9% on Tuesday but rebounded slightly on Wednesday, facing increased competition in the AI chip market [11] - Urban Outfitters soared between 10% and 12.1% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results, while Workday sank 9% despite positive earnings [11] - Petco surged 19.8% after raising its fiscal year earnings outlook, and Robinhood Markets jumped 10.7% following plans to launch a futures and derivatives exchange [11]

Core Insights - Robinhood stock is currently trading approximately 17% below its all-time high of 153.86, yet it remains a favored choice among option traders, indicating potential buying support [1][7] - A long-term bull put spread strategy is being considered, which allows for defined risk and potential profit if the stock trades sideways or slightly lower [2][3] Stock Performance and Options Strategy - As of Wednesday, Robinhood stock is priced around 127, with a proposed bull put spread involving selling a 100-strike put and buying a 95-strike put, trading at approximately $1.35 per contract [3] - The potential return on this spread could be around 37% over four months if the stock remains above 100 at expiration, with an 80% chance of the 100-strike put expiring worthless [4][5] Risk Management - The maximum loss for this trade would occur if Robinhood stock closes below 95, resulting in a loss of $365, while the break-even point is calculated at 98.65 [5][6] - It is advisable to set a stop loss if the stock drops below 110, limiting potential losses to the premium received of $135 [6] Company Overview - Robinhood is recognized for its commission-free trading platform and has received high ratings, including a Composite Rating of 95 out of 99 from Investor's Business Daily [7] - The company has disrupted traditional brokerage models since its founding in 2013, attracting millions of retail investors through mobile access and fractional share investing [7]

Core Insights - Robinhood is acquiring a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX to launch its own prediction market platform, leading to an 8% increase in its stock price to $125 [1][6] - The company is responding to strong customer demand for prediction markets and aims to enhance its product offerings [2] - Bernstein analysts suggest that Robinhood's acquisition will allow it to launch its own event contracts, leveraging its existing market share [3][4] Company Developments - Robinhood's investment in LedgerX is part of a strategy to build a dedicated prediction market platform, enhancing its infrastructure for better customer experience [2][4] - The acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, with Miami International Holdings retaining a 10% stake [4][6] - The partnership with Susquehanna International Group facilitated the acquisition, indicating a strategic alignment for entering the prediction markets [4][6] Market Context - Robinhood has already captured over 50% of Kalshi market volumes, indicating a strong position in the prediction market space [3] - The acquisition of LedgerX is seen as a move to increase revenue potential through innovative product offerings and increased market share [4] - MIAX, the operating name for LedgerX, has regulatory approval from the CFTC to list and clear futures and options, positioning it for growth in prediction markets [5][6]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Wednesday due to the announcement of an expansion in its prediction markets offerings [1] - The brokerage is adding a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse to enhance its prediction-markets platform, which includes trades on sports, the economy, and other events [1] - Robinhood is collaborating with market maker Susquehanna International to support this expansion [1] Group 2 - The stock market is currently at a key level, with futures wavering [2] - Nvidia's stock declined following news related to Google AI chips [2] - Alibaba's stock experienced an increase amidst the market fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood is expanding its offerings by launching a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, enhancing its investment in predictive markets [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Robinhood's stock price increased by over 6.5%, reaching $123.17 [1] - The company is forming a new joint venture with Susquehanna, where Robinhood will act as the controlling partner and provide retail demand and distribution channels [1] - The joint venture will accelerate service delivery by acquiring MIAXdx, a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Susquehanna International Group will serve as a key partner and initial liquidity provider for the new venture, with plans to introduce additional liquidity providers in the future [1] - MIAX, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Miami International Holdings, will retain a 10% strategic equity stake in the new exchange [1] Group 3: Future Operations - The independent joint venture is expected to provide futures and derivatives for futures commission merchants (FCM) platforms, including Robinhood's predictive markets, with operations anticipated to begin in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets, Inc. is launching a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, enhancing its investment in the prediction-market sector [1][2]. Group 1: New Ventures - The new initiative is a joint venture where Robinhood will be the controlling partner [2]. - The venture aims to improve Robinhood's ability to scale and monetize prediction markets [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - HOOD shares increased by 8.55%, reaching $125.50 [7]. - Susquehanna International Group has been named as a day-one liquidity provider, with more firms expected to join [3]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro maintains a Buy rating on Robinhood, with a price target of $175 [4]. - Yaro highlighted that the joint venture could enhance liquidity in prediction markets compared to Robinhood's current offerings [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Rationale - The joint venture is based on the premise that prediction markets are still developing, which complicates securing consistent liquidity [5]. - Existing licenses and products from MIAXdx are expected to keep the venture's investment needs manageable [5].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets, Inc. is launching a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, enhancing its investment in the prediction-market sector, which is expected to positively impact its stock performance [1][2]. Group 1: New Ventures - The new initiative is a joint venture where Robinhood will be the controlling partner, aimed at boosting its presence in prediction markets [2]. - The venture will allow Robinhood to design and list customized contracts for clients, enhancing its offerings in the prediction market space [8]. Group 2: Market Impact - HOOD shares have seen an increase of 8.55%, trading at $125.50 following the announcement [7]. - Susquehanna International Group has been named as a day-one liquidity provider, with more firms expected to join, which could enhance liquidity in the new market [3][8]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro has reiterated a Buy rating on HOOD, projecting a price target of $175, citing the potential for improved scalability and monetization of prediction markets through the new venture [4]. - Yaro emphasized that the joint venture could lead to better liquidity in more markets compared to Robinhood's current offerings [4]. Group 4: Financial Considerations - The joint venture is expected to allow Robinhood to earn revenue through both its brokerage and futures commission merchant (FCM) operations [5]. - Yaro noted that the existing licenses and products from MIAXdx should help manage the incremental investment needs of the venture [5].