Core Insights - Robinhood Markets, Inc. reported its monthly operating data for February 2026, highlighting both growth and declines in various metrics compared to previous months and year-over-year [1][4]. Customer and Asset Growth - Funded customers reached 27.4 million in February 2026, a 1% increase from January 2026 and a 7% increase year-over-year [2][4]. - Total platform assets were $314.2 billion, down 3% from January 2026 but up 68% year-over-year [2][4]. - Net deposits in February were $5.6 billion, reflecting a significant annualized growth rate of 21% compared to January 2026 [4]. Trading Activity - Total trading volumes showed mixed results: - Equity notional trading volumes were $194.4 billion, down 14% from January 2026 but up 36% year-over-year [5]. - Options contracts traded totaled 180.3 million, down 10% from January 2026 but up 9% year-over-year [5]. - Crypto notional trading volumes increased to $25.0 billion, up 9% from January 2026 and up 74% year-over-year [5]. Average Daily Volumes (ADVs) - Average daily volumes for equities were $10.2 billion, down 11% from January 2026 but up 36% year-over-year [5]. - For options, ADVs were 9.5 million contracts, down 5% from January 2026 but up 9% year-over-year [5]. - Crypto ADVs were $893 million, up 21% from January 2026 and up 74% year-over-year [5]. Interest Earning Assets - Margin balances at the end of February were $17.2 billion, down 7% from January 2026 but up 98% year-over-year [4]. - Cash and deposit balances increased to $16.5 billion, up 41% from January 2026 and up 67% year-over-year [4]. - Total securities lending revenue in February was $25 million, down 26% from January 2026 but up 14% year-over-year [4].

I'm not sure that it's the time to buy the dip right now. And I I haven't felt like that. I think this I'm not a geopolitical expert, but this war is sort of a proxy for a number of things.Our differences with China, our reliance on petro dollars. So, you know, I regardless of that, the thing I've been more worried about heading into this was the credit cycle that seems to be coming to a head now. I mean, it it has been going on since 2010, like this build.um and it didn't matter until rates started going h ...

Group 1 - The current geopolitical situation, particularly the war, is viewed as a proxy for broader issues, including tensions with China and reliance on petro dollars [1] - Concerns are raised about an impending credit cycle that has been building since 2010, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1] - Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are influencing investment strategies, leading to a reduction in equity exposure over the past month [2] Group 2 - The company is not completely divesting from equities but is taking measures to protect capital in the current market environment [2] - There is an expectation of significant investment opportunities on a single stock basis despite the overall cautious approach [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies in the virtual asset sector, including Robinhood, Coinbase, Futu Holdings, UP Fintech Holding, and HashKey Holdings, with target prices set at 154.00, 288.00, 233.00, 17.20, and 8.80 respectively [1]. Core Insights - The virtual asset sector is expected to experience short-term volatility due to fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices and performance pressures, but the long-term growth logic remains clear. Regulatory easing is anticipated to open up business opportunities, and companies within the sector are diversifying their revenue structures, which could lead to improved gross margins [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality targets with strong compliance barriers and diversified revenue streams, while dynamically optimizing positions based on market volatility and regulatory developments [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoin Industry Chain - The stablecoin industry can be divided into primary market issuance and custody, secondary market circulation (involving licensed trading platforms, brokers, and liquidity providers), and application scenarios primarily focused on trading and payments [7][10]. - Issuers earn interest income from reserve assets, while distributors, including trading platforms and brokers, generate revenue through transaction commissions [10][17]. 2. Valuation and Recommendations - The report highlights the significant discount of Chinese internet brokers (Futu, Tiger Brokers) compared to their US counterparts, making them attractive investment options. Futu is noted for its leading position in the internet brokerage space and strong competitive advantages in digital asset layout [3]. - HashKey is recommended due to its expected revenue CAGR of 68% from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from regulatory easing and product expansion [3]. 3. Market Trends - The report identifies a trend towards the mainstream adoption of digital assets, with financial activities migrating to blockchain platforms. The regulatory framework for digital assets is becoming clearer, and trading activities are expected to increasingly shift towards licensed onshore platforms [6][19]. - The report anticipates that institutional players will dominate digital asset trading volumes, with Hong Kong expected to lead in growth due to regulatory advancements [6][19]. 4. Company Analysis - Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, derives 95% of its revenue from reserve asset income, highlighting the sensitivity of its business model to interest rates and the liquidity of USDC [29][32]. - The report outlines the revenue structure of Circle, noting concerns about its reliance on Coinbase for distribution and the impact of high distribution costs on profitability [29][35]. 5. Application Scenarios - The primary application scenarios for stablecoins are in cryptocurrency trading and cross-border payments, with trading accounting for 67% and remittances for 15% of stablecoin usage [19][22]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of B2B payments in the stablecoin payment landscape, with significant growth expected in this area [22][23].

Core Insights - Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have distinct strengths, with Robinhood focusing on retail investors and crypto-friendly trading, while Interactive Brokers provides broader tools and global access for both retail and institutional investors [1][2] Group 1: Robinhood's Position - Robinhood is rapidly expanding with new product launches and international growth, aiming to become a "financial super app" [3] - Key launches for 2025 include Robinhood Cortex (an AI market analysis assistant), the Legend platform (advanced trading tools), and Robinhood Social (a community for copy trading) [4] - The company is expanding globally by offering tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs in 31 EU/EEA countries and plans to diversify revenues through new offices and acquisitions in Asia-Pacific [5][6] - Despite its growth initiatives, Robinhood faces challenges with declining crypto trading activity and a need to shift its image away from being crypto-centric [7] Group 2: Interactive Brokers' Strengths - Interactive Brokers excels in providing deep, multi-asset global market access, allowing clients to trade across over 160 markets and various asset classes from a single platform [8] - The company maintains technological superiority, resulting in lower compensation expenses relative to net revenues, which supports revenue growth [9] - Recent strategic expansions include stablecoin funding, launching Coinbase Derivatives, and enabling global trading for Swedish clients [10][11] - The company's technological advancements and regulatory improvements are expected to bolster net revenues and client acquisitions [12] Group 3: Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 12.7% and 20.9% rise in Robinhood's earnings for 2026 and 2027, respectively, although estimates have been revised lower recently [13] - In contrast, Interactive Brokers is projected to see 7.3% and 6.7% growth in earnings for the same years, with estimates revised upward [16] - Over the past six months, Robinhood's shares have decreased by 31.5%, while Interactive Brokers' shares have increased by 9.8%, indicating stronger investor confidence in IBKR [18][20] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Robinhood is trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 8.40X, while Interactive Brokers is at 1.50X, suggesting that IBKR is undervalued compared to HOOD [20] - Interactive Brokers is viewed as a more stable investment amid crypto volatility due to its diversified business model and technological efficiency [22] - While Robinhood has long-term ambitions, its recent stock performance and premium valuation present a less compelling risk-reward scenario compared to Interactive Brokers [23][24]

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If the Pre-IPO Is In Your Inbox, It Probably Isn't the Deal You Think It Is - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# If the Pre-IPO Is In Your Inbox, It Probably Isn't the Deal You Think It IsByMarshall SandmanShareResize---ReprintsV ...

Investment in DraftKings - ARK added approximately 58,048 shares of DraftKings (DKNG) valued at around $1.48 million, with DraftKings holding 1.9% weightage in the ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF and 1.05% in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF [1] - DraftKings benefits from state-by-state legalization across the U.S., expanding its total addressable market, and is focusing on improving profitability through disciplined marketing spending and stronger customer retention metrics [1][5] - DraftKings receives a "Strong Buy" rating on Wall Street, with analysts seeing a potential upside of 45% from current levels if it hits its average price target of $36.41, and a high price target of $53 implies a potential surge of 110.7% over the next year [6] Investment in Robinhood - ARK purchased about 183,933 shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD) worth roughly $15.12 million, with Robinhood holding 4.3% weightage in the ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF and 4.8% in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF [3] - Robinhood is valued at $69.4 billion and is diversifying its offerings beyond meme-stock trading, including options, retirement accounts, and credit cards [2] - Robinhood receives a "Moderate Buy" rating on Wall Street, with analysts seeing a potential upside of 63% from current levels if it hits its average price target of $125.65, and a high price target of $180 implies a potential surge of 133.5% over the next year [2] Investment in Cerus Corp. - ARK purchased 612,501 shares of Cerus Corp. (CERS) worth about $1.37 million, with Cerus holding 1.2% weightage in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF and 0.30% in the ARK Innovation ETF [7] - Cerus specializes in pathogen reduction technology for blood safety, with its main product, the INTERCEPT Blood System, helping reduce harmful pathogens in blood components [8] - Cerus stock receives a "Moderate Buy" rating on Wall Street, with analysts seeing a potential upside of 159% from current levels if it hits its average and high price target of $5.00 [9] Investment in Compass Pathways - ARK bought roughly 100,264 shares of Compass Pathways (CMPS) valued at about $706,861, with Compass holding 1.88% in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF [10] - Compass focuses on creating innovative mental health treatments, particularly COMP360, an investigational psilocybin-based therapy for treatment-resistant depression and PTSD [11] - Compass stock receives a "Strong Buy" rating on Wall Street, with analysts seeing a potential upside of 233% from current levels if it hits its average price target of $21.92, and a high price target of $70 implies a potential surge of 963.8% over the next year [12] Investment in Canton Strategic Holdings - ARK purchased 93,900 shares of Canton Strategic Holdings (CNTN) worth about $439,452, with Canton holding 0.19% weightage in the ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF [13] - Canton Strategic Holdings has shifted its focus from a clinical-stage biotech company to managing a digital asset treasury centered on the Canton Network [14] - Small-cap companies like Canton can offer explosive upside if their business models scale successfully, aligning with ARK's strategy of identifying emerging disruptors [15]

Core Insights - Robinhood has demonstrated its ability to survive market volatility and achieved profitability in 2025, leading to its inclusion in the S&P 500 [1] - The focus now shifts to Robinhood's potential evolution by 2029, determining whether it becomes a sustainable fintech platform or remains a high-beta trading entity [1] Transition to Financial Platform - The ideal scenario involves Robinhood transitioning from a transaction-driven brokerage to a relationship-driven financial platform, with recurring revenue becoming the primary revenue source [4] - This shift would lead to increased operating margins during quieter market periods, as earnings volatility would decline with the scaling of recurring revenue [5] - A successful transformation would change Robinhood's identity from a momentum stock to a stable fintech platform, enhancing institutional ownership and focusing on lifetime customer value [6] Middle Path Scenario - A more realistic outcome suggests continued revenue growth and gradual margin improvement, with options and crypto trading still being significant revenue drivers [8] - While subscription growth and ecosystem expansion would enhance engagement, earnings would still fluctuate with market sentiment, resulting in a stronger but not fundamentally different company [9] Downside Risk - The downside scenario indicates stagnation rather than collapse, with moderating interest income, increasing regulatory complexity, and rising competitive pressure [11] - In this case, Robinhood would remain profitable but struggle to expand earnings power, leading to slower growth and a narrative of "cyclical fintech with innovation risk" [12] Key Metrics to Watch - Investors should monitor structural indicators over the next three years, focusing on non-transaction revenue as a percentage of total revenue [13] - Improvement in these trends would indicate a strengthening business model, emphasizing growth with predictability rather than just growth alone [14] Demographic Advantage - Robinhood's long-term asset is its younger user base, which has the potential for evolving financial needs over decades [15] - Retaining and deepening relationships with users could significantly increase lifetime value, while fading engagement during quiet markets could diminish this demographic edge [16] Investor Considerations - By 2029, the evaluation will center on whether Robinhood has built a durable economic engine, with a focus on recurring revenue expansion, reduced volatility, and strengthened ecosystem depth [17] - The execution of these strategies will ultimately determine the company's trajectory and its classification as a credible fintech compounder or a high-beta platform [17]