Robinhood (HOOD) stock popped over 10% on Wednesday as the trading platform said it would expand its fastest-growing product line, prediction markets. Shares of the online broker jumped after the company announced the launch of a futures and derivatives exchange with market maker Susquehanna International in order to expand its prediction-market offerings, a service where users can bet on outcomes ranging from sports results to Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Robinhood began offering prediction ...

Core Insights - Robinhood stock (NASDAQ: HOOD) surged nearly 8% following the announcement of a partnership with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, marking a significant move into regulated prediction-markets and derivatives trading [2][3][7] Deal Details - The acquisition of LedgerX, previously owned by FTX and now regulated by the CFTC, is set to close in early 2026 and is expected to enhance Robinhood's product offerings [5][8] - The deal resulted in a notable increase in trading volume, with retail investors leading the initial surge [6][9] Revenue Potential - Analysts suggest that if Robinhood successfully launches a futures and derivatives exchange, it could unlock new fee revenue and diversify its product mix, potentially reshaping the company's revenue outlook [4][10] - Piper Sandler estimates that the LedgerX rollout could yield mid-eight-figure incremental revenue if successful [13] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood faces competition from established derivatives venues like CME Group and newer regulated exchanges, but its unique retail user base and mobile distribution may provide a strategic advantage [11][12] Market Reaction - The market responded positively to the news, adding over $1 billion to Robinhood's market cap, with options traders adjusting for new upside scenarios [9]

Core Insights - The online brokerage is set to launch a futures and derivatives exchange in collaboration with Susquehanna International Group [1] Company Developments - The new exchange aims to enhance the brokerage's offerings in the futures and derivatives market [1] Industry Impact - This initiative reflects a growing trend among online brokerages to diversify their product offerings and compete more effectively in the financial markets [1]

Group 1 - Robinhood's stock price increased by over 6.5%, reaching $123.17 [1] - The company is launching a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse to deepen its investment in prediction markets [1] - Robinhood is partnering with Susquehanna to establish a new, independently operated joint venture, where it will act as the controlling partner [1] Group 2 - Susquehanna International Group will serve as a key partner and initial liquidity provider for the joint venture, with plans to introduce additional liquidity providers in the future [1] - The joint venture aims to accelerate service delivery by acquiring MIAXdx, a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization licensed by the CFTC [1] - MIAX will retain a 10% strategic equity stake in the exchange, which is expected to provide futures and derivatives products, including Robinhood's prediction markets, starting in 2026 [1]

消息面上，Robinhood与Susquehanna国际集团达成协议，将收购由迈阿密国际控股公司运营的一家受监 管交易所。此次收购将大幅助力两家公司在预测市场建立据点的推进计划。两家公司将收购LedgerX交 易所90%的股权。LedgerX曾是现已倒闭的加密货币交易所FTX的一部分。交易完成后，公司将与 Susquehanna成立合资企业，推出一家期货与衍生品交易所及清算所。(格隆汇) Robinhood(HOOD.US)盘初一度涨近9%，最高触及125.97美元。 ...

Business Development - Robinhood will establish a futures and derivatives exchange through a joint venture with Susquehanna [1] - The new exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026 [1] Strategic Focus - The joint venture aims to expand Robinhood's prediction markets offerings [1]

来源：格隆汇APP Robinhood(HOOD.US)盘初一度涨近9%，最高触及125.97美元。 消息面上，Robinhood与Susquehanna国际集团达成协议，将收购由迈阿密国际控股公司运营的一家受监 管交易所。此次收购将大幅助力两家公司在预测市场建立据点的推进计划。两家公司将收购LedgerX交 易所90%的股权。LedgerX曾是现已倒闭的加密货币交易所FTX的一部分。交易完成后，公司将与 Susquehanna成立合资企业，推出一家期货与衍生品交易所及清算所。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood is launching a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, enhancing its investment in predictive markets, which has led to a stock price increase of over 6.5% to $123.17 [1] Group 1: Business Development - Robinhood is establishing a new joint venture with Susquehanna, where Robinhood will act as the controlling partner, providing retail demand and distribution channels [1] - The joint venture will leverage Susquehanna International Group as a key partner and initial liquidity provider, with plans to introduce additional liquidity providers in the future [1] Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - The joint venture aims to accelerate service delivery by acquiring MIAXdx, a designated contract market, derivatives clearing organization, and swap execution facility licensed by the CFTC [1] - MIAX will retain a 10% strategic equity stake in the exchange, ensuring continued involvement in the venture [1] Group 3: Future Operations - The independent joint venture is set to provide futures and derivative products through a futures commission merchant platform, including Robinhood's predictive markets, with operations expected to commence in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is leveraging the prediction market boom to create a structural growth engine through the acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange in partnership with Susquehanna International Group [1][10] - The company plans to launch a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse by 2026, positioning prediction markets as a long-term core business [3][12] Company Developments - MIAX Derivatives Exchange is a CFTC-licensed entity, and Miami International Holdings retains a 10% stake, providing regulatory credibility and a robust infrastructure [2] - Robinhood's prediction markets have become its fastest-growing product line, with approximately 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in the first year, generating over $100 million in annualized revenues [4][12] - Management anticipates a potential run rate of $300 million over time, driven by strong customer demand and engagement [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of an independent futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse will allow Robinhood to manage clearing and execution internally, improving economics and product flexibility [5][6][10] - This move is expected to enhance the company's ability to innovate and respond to market demands, particularly in political, macroeconomic, and sports markets [6] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood faces competition from other firms in the prediction market space, notably Kalshi, which is expanding its regulated event-contract offerings [7] - Traditional derivatives market players like Cboe Global Markets and CME Group are also entering the prediction market arena, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance of prediction markets [8][11] - Cboe Global plans to launch event-based contracts tied to economic data, while CME Group is partnering with FanDuel to introduce a consumer-focused platform for trading event contracts [9] Market Outlook - The growing participation in prediction markets signals their transition into a mainstream asset class, characterized by increasing competition, deeper liquidity, and innovation [11] - Robinhood's prediction market business is expected to drive significant growth, appealing to younger traders and diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional models [12]

Core Insights - Robinhood (HOOD) has agreed to acquire 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange, aiming to enhance its presence in the prediction markets sector, which is rapidly growing [1][2] - Following the announcement, HOOD shares increased by 8.3% [1] - MIAX operates the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange LedgerX, which it purchased from FTX for $50 million in 2023 [1] Company Developments - MIAX CEO Thomas Gallagher stated that the transaction will expedite MIAX's access to the growing prediction markets [2] - Robinhood currently accounts for over 50% of Kalshi's trading volume, generating more than $300 million in annual recurring revenue from prediction markets, with nine billion contracts traded by over one million users [4] - Analysts suggest that by adding its own liquidity, Robinhood can diversify its product offerings, increase trading volumes, and enhance its take-rate while continuing to distribute Kalshi contracts [4] Industry Trends - Bernstein highlighted that Robinhood's entry into prediction markets through a joint venture with Susquehanna underscores the importance of this business to Robinhood's growth narrative [3] - The prediction markets landscape is evolving into a two-tier structure, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket needing access to larger retail audiences through brokers and crypto exchanges [6] - Robinhood's 14 million active traders provide a significant demographic advantage, allowing the company to capture a larger share of the sector's revenue pool [6] Market Reactions - Bernstein has reaffirmed its outperform rating on Robinhood shares with a price target of $160 [7] - The report also anticipates that Coinbase (COIN) will introduce its prediction-markets product at an upcoming event, although its strategy remains uncertain [5]