Core Insights - Humana Inc. reported a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of $3.96 per share, which was narrower than the consensus estimate of a loss of $4.01 per share but wider than the prior year's loss of $2.16 per share [1] - Adjusted revenues increased by 11.8% year over year to $32.6 billion, surpassing the consensus mark by 2.4% [1] Financial Performance - Premiums totaled $30.9 billion, up 11.3% year over year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $30.2 billion [3] - Services revenues rose 28.6% year over year to $1.5 billion, also higher than the consensus mark of $1.4 billion [3] - Investment income fell sharply by 55.6% year over year to $132 million, missing the consensus estimate of $273 million [3] - Total operating expenses increased by 12% year over year to $33.3 billion, exceeding the estimate of $31.8 billion [4] - The benefit ratio was reported at 93%, deteriorating by 150 basis points year over year [4] Segment Performance - The Insurance segment's adjusted revenues rose 11.3% year over year to $31.3 billion, driven by improved per-member premiums [5] - The segment incurred an adjusted operating loss of $923 million, wider than the prior year's loss of $575 million [6] - CenterWell recorded revenues of $6 billion, improving 16.2% year over year and surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.5 billion [7] Future Outlook - Humana forecasts at least $160 billion in revenues for 2026, indicating a 23.4% increase from 2025 [9] - Adjusted EPS is projected to decline to at least $9.00, a 47.5% decrease from the 2025 figure [14] - Management anticipates growth in Individual Medicare Advantage membership by around 25% in 2026 [15]

Group 1 - Humana reported a narrower-than-expected loss in the fourth quarter, but the stock fell due to a full-year outlook that was below expectations [1] - The company and its insurance peers are facing challenges related to proposed Medicare Advantage payment rates [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [17] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [18] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a stars headwind [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced approximately 1 million member growth, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [8] - Retention rate improved by over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [9] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [9] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy, focusing on maximizing customer lifetime value and member retention [6] - Plans are designed to be priced for sustainable margins, moving away from loss leader strategies [8] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and maintain quality care for members [10] - The company is adapting to the funding environment and expects to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [15] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the Advance Rate Notice but emphasized a commitment to protect consumers [15] Other Important Information - The company is focused on capital efficiency and plans to fund membership growth and strategic acquisitions while maintaining credit ratings [24] - A new President of Medicare Advantage, Aaron Martin, joined the company, bringing extensive healthcare experience [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [30] Question: How is the typical progress of margins for new members over time? - Management noted that margins typically improve significantly from year one to year two, with ongoing improvements expected in subsequent years [35] Question: What are the expectations for 2026 compared to Investor Day? - Management highlighted that the biggest difference is the embedded conservatism in their numbers, leading to a broader haircut in guidance [45] Question: How did the D-SNP membership growth compare to expectations? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [48] Question: What is the impact of the stars headwind on margins? - Management explained that the stars headwind affects both new and existing members, with similar margins expected for both cohorts [32] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated that they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [17] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [18] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a $3.5 billion headwind from Stars [19][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew by approximately 1 million members, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [8] - Retention rate improved by over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [9] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [9] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy and aims to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [5][6] - Focus areas include product and experience, clinical excellence, operational efficiency, and capital allocation [6] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and emphasized the importance of maintaining quality care for members [10] - The company is aware of the fiscal pressures on Medicare Advantage and is prepared to adapt to the funding environment [15] - Management remains optimistic about achieving top quartile Stars results by 2028 [12] Other Important Information - The company plans to announce a strategic acquisition in the primary care space [14] - Aaron Martin joined the company as President of Medicare Advantage, bringing extensive healthcare experience [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [30] Question: How do you estimate the progress of new members' margins over time? - Management expects substantial margin improvement in the first year due to reduced marketing load and improved medical benefit ratios [35] Question: What are the expectations for D-SNP membership growth? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [48] Question: How did expectations for 2026 change since Investor Day? - The primary difference is the embedded conservatism in the guidance, reflecting known headwinds and tailwinds [45] Question: What is the impact of the Stars headwind on margins? - The Stars headwind for 2026 is approximately $3.5 billion, affecting both individual and group MA margins [21] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [16] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [17] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a stars headwind [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew by approximately 1 million members, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [6] - Retention rate improved over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [6][8] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [7] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy that adapts to the funding environment to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [4] - Focus areas include maximizing customer lifetime value, clinical excellence, operational efficiency, and capital allocation [5] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and emphasized the importance of maintaining quality care for members [9] - The company is aware of the fiscal pressures on Medicare Advantage and is committed to protecting consumers while adapting to the funding environment [13] - Management expects to continue making progress on stars performance and adapting to the final rate notice [13] Other Important Information - The company announced the appointment of Aaron Martin as President of Medicare Advantage, who will elevate to the president of insurance role upon George's retirement [14] - The company is focused on maintaining a stable and compelling MA margin while unlocking earnings potential by 2028 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [27] Question: How do you estimate the margin progression for new members? - Management expects substantial margin improvement in the first year due to lower marketing loads and improved medical benefit ratios over time [33] Question: What are the expectations for D-SNP membership growth? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [46] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated that they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels for members [56] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding membership growth versus margin? - The focus is on achieving the right long-term margin profile while retaining as many members as possible, rather than solely pursuing new member growth [87]

医疗保险公司哈门那(HUM.US)盘前跌5.7%，报170.99美元。消息面上，哈门那去年第四季度营收为 326.4亿美元，超过分析师预期的320.8亿美元；调整后每股亏损3.96美元，去年同期每股亏损2.16美元， 分析师预期每股亏损4.01美元。展望2026年，公司给出保守的业绩指引，预计调整后每股收益至少为9 美元，低于分析师预期的11.87美元。(格隆汇) ...

Humana Inc. (HUM), headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, provides medical and specialty insurance products. With a market cap of $22.8 billion, the company offers coordinated health care through health maintenance organizations, point-of-service plans, and administrative services products. Shares of medicare giant have considerably underperformed the broader market over the past year. HUM has declined 32.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 14.4%. In 2026, H ...

Financial Performance - Humana reported a 4Q25 net loss per share of $6.61 on a GAAP basis and an adjusted net loss per share of $3.96, with FY 2025 EPS of $9.84 on a GAAP basis and $17.14 on an adjusted basis[4]. - FY 2025 consolidated revenues were $129.664 billion, up from $117.761 billion in FY 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 10.2%[10]. - Humana Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $32,515 million for Q4 2025, a 11.8% increase from $29,213 million in Q4 2024[61]. - The adjusted consolidated revenues for FY 2025 were $129,789 million, up 10.7% from $117,210 million in FY 2024[61]. - The net loss per share for Q4 2025 was $6.61, compared to a loss of $5.76 per share in Q4 2024[63]. - Operating cash flows for FY 2025 were $921 million, significantly lower than $2,966 million in FY 2024[65]. - The company reported a net income of $1,203 million for FY 2025, slightly down from $1,214 million in FY 2024[65]. - For the year ended December 31, 2025, total revenues were $129,664 million, compared to $117,761 million in 2024, marking a growth of 10.1%[68][69]. - The income from operations for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $2,704 million, compared to $2,562 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 5.5%[68][69]. Membership Growth - The company expects approximately 25% growth in individual Medicare Advantage membership for FY 2026, driven by new sales and improved retention strategies[4]. - CenterWell Senior Primary Care grew by 100,600 patients, or over 25%, in 2025, including approximately 32,000 patients from the acquisition of The Villages Health[4]. - The individual Medicare Advantage membership increased by 20% to approximately 6,280,000 in January 2026, reflecting net membership gains during the 2026 Annual Election period[31]. - Group Medicare Advantage membership rose by 28% to approximately 730,000 in January 2026, driven by net membership additions from the 2026 selling season[32]. - As of December 31, 2025, Humana's total Medicare Advantage membership reached 5,817.7 thousand, a decrease of 6.3% from 6,207.5 thousand in 2024[70]. - The Individual Medicare Advantage membership included 760,500 Dual Eligible Special Need Plans (D-SNP) members, reflecting a net decrease of 176,600 members or 19% from 937,100 in 2024[71]. - The company anticipates a growth of approximately 25% in year-end medical membership and an increase of about 150,000 in Group Medicare Advantage membership for FY 2026[57]. Cost and Efficiency - The GAAP operating cost ratio improved to 13.7% in 4Q25 from 14.4% in 4Q24, driven by higher premiums and membership growth in state-based contracts[10]. - The operating cost ratio for the insurance segment improved slightly to 10.8% in 4Q25 from 11.0% in 4Q24, while FY 2025 was 9.1%, down from 9.2% in FY 2024[21]. - The operating cost ratio for the year ended December 31, 2025, was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% in 2024, indicating a slight increase[68][69]. - The company anticipates continued administrative cost efficiencies and operating leverage from increased revenues due to the impact of the IRA[22]. - The consolidated operating cost ratio is expected to be 10.0% +/- 25 basis points for FY 2026[57]. Insurance Segment Performance - The 4Q25 Insurance segment GAAP benefit ratio was 93.1%, while the FY 2025 benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than the guidance range of 90.1% to 90.5%[4]. - Insurance segment revenues for 4Q25 reached $31,343 million, a 11.5% increase from $28,170 million in 4Q24, and FY 2025 revenues were $124,563 million, up 9.5% from $113,764 million in FY 2024[21]. - The benefit ratio for the insurance segment was 93.1% in 4Q25, compared to 92.1% in 4Q24, and remained stable at 90.4% for both FY 2025 and FY 2024[21]. - Insurance segment reported a GAAP loss from operations of $927 million in 4Q25, compared to a loss of $646 million in 4Q24, while adjusted (non-GAAP) loss was $923 million[48]. - The benefit ratio for the insurance segment is projected at 92.75% +/- 25 basis points for FY 2026[57]. Debt and Capitalization - Humana's debt-to-total capitalization increased to 41.1% at December 31, 2025, up from 40.3% at September 30, 2025, primarily due to the net loss in 4Q25[18]. - The debt-to-total capitalization ratio improved to 41.1% in FY 2025 from 41.9% in FY 2024[64]. Future Projections - Humana anticipates FY 2026 GAAP EPS guidance of at least $8.89 and at least $9.00 on an adjusted basis, reflecting a year-over-year decline due to Star Ratings headwinds[8]. - For FY 2026, the company projects total revenues of at least $160 billion, with the insurance segment expected to generate at least $155 billion[57]. - The effective tax rate for FY 2026 is projected to be approximately 25.5%[57]. - Cash flows from operations are expected to be between $2.5 billion and $2.9 billion for FY 2026[57]. CenterWell Segment Performance - CenterWell segment revenues for 4Q25 were $5,962 million, a 16.2% increase from $5,130 million in 4Q24, and FY 2025 revenues were $22,473 million, up 12.7% from $19,936 million in FY 2024[34]. - CenterWell segment's GAAP income from operations for FY 2025 was $1.339 billion, slightly up from $1.329 billion in FY 2024, with adjusted (non-GAAP) income at $1.558 billion[50]. - The operating cost ratio for the CenterWell segment increased to 94.2% in 4Q25 from 92.5% in 4Q24, while FY 2025 was 93.1%, up from 92.2% in FY 2024[34]. Operational Metrics - Days in claims payable (DCP) decreased to 31.9 days at December 31, 2025, down from 37.8 days at December 31, 2024[18]. - Total assets increased to $48,909 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $46,479 million a year earlier[64]. - The total primary care patients served increased to 491,100 as of December 31, 2025, a year-over-year growth of 25.8% from 390,500 in 2024[75]. - The total admissions for same-store home solutions grew by 2.3% year-over-year, reaching 428,342 for the year ended December 31, 2025[77]. - The generic dispense rate for Medicare was 90.5% for the year ended December 31, 2025, slightly down from 91.0% in 2024[74]. - The CenterWell segment's pharmacy solutions generated $12,959 million in revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, up from $11,628 million in 2024, marking a 11.4% increase[74].

Corporate Earnings and Strategic Shifts - Ford is expecting a reduction in tariff costs of approximately $1.0 billion in 2026 while reporting Q4 charges of about $13.8 billion related to its evolving electric vehicle (EV) strategy and the anticipated disposition of its BOSK investment [2][9] - Humana reported an adjusted loss per share of -$3.96 for Q425, which was better than the estimated -$4.01, but its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9 fell short of the analyst consensus of $11.87 [3][9] - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. achieved a net income of $298 million in Q4, with diluted EPS at $1.27 and adjusted EPS of $2.08, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.02, while revenue reached $3,087 million [4][9] Market Dynamics and M&A Activity - QXO is set to acquire Kodiak Building Partners for approximately $2.25 billion, which is expected to significantly expand QXO's addressable market to over $200 billion and be highly accretive to its 2026 earnings [5][9] Commodity Markets - Spot Silver experienced a notable intraday surge of 6.00%, trading at $85.57/oz, indicating ongoing volatility and investor interest in precious metals [6][9]

Core Insights - Humana reported a wider fourth-quarter loss due to rising medical costs impacting margins in its core Medicare Advantage business [1] Company Summary - The increase in medical costs has been a significant factor contributing to the company's financial performance challenges [1]