Imperial Oil (NYSEAM:IMO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker3Good day and welcome to the Imperial Oil third-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Peter Shaw, Vice President of Investor Relations.Speaker6Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third-quarter earnings conference call. I am joined this morning by Imperial Oil's senior management team, including John Whelan, Chairman, President, and CEO; ...

Imperial Oil (IMO) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.57 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.71 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +9.03%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas and petroleum products company would post earnings of $1.22 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.34, delivering a surprise of +9.84%.Over the l ...

Q3 News Release Calgary, October 31, 2025 Exhibit 99.1 Imperial announces third quarter 2025 financial and operating results | | | Third quarter | | | Nine months | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | millions of Canadian dollars, unless noted | 2025 | 2024 | ∆I | 2025 | 2024 | ∆I | | Net income (loss) (U.S. GAAP) | 539 | 1,237 | (698) | 2,776 | 3,565 | (789) | | 1 Net income (loss) excluding identified items | 1,094 | 1,237 | (143) | 3,331 | 3,565 | (234) | | Net income (loss) per common share, ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Imperial Oil despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Imperial Oil is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 22.8%, while revenues are projected to be $11.98 billion, an increase of 23.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 6.81% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +12.12% for Imperial Oil, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - Imperial Oil has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates, achieving this in the last four quarters, including a surprise of +9.84% in the most recent quarter [13][14]. Investment Considerations - While a positive earnings surprise is likely, other factors may influence stock performance, making it essential to consider the broader context beyond just earnings results [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of exceeding expectations [1]. Earnings Performance - The company has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 12.48% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, Imperial Oil reported earnings of $1.34 per share, exceeding the expected $1.22 per share by 9.84%. In the previous quarter, it reported $1.75 per share against an estimate of $1.52 per share, resulting in a surprise of 15.13% [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Imperial Oil have been revised upward, indicating growing analyst confidence in its near-term earnings potential. The Zacks Earnings ESP for the company is currently positive at +12.12% [6][9]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data indicating that nearly 70% of stocks with this combination exceed consensus estimates [7][9]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may provide a more accurate prediction of earnings [8].

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil Limited will host its 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call on October 31, 2025, at 9 a.m. MT, following the release of its third quarter earnings that morning [1][2]. Earnings Call Details - John Whelan, chairman, president, and CEO, will provide brief remarks before addressing questions from analysts [2]. - The earnings call will be accessible via a live webcast, which will also be available for one year on the company's investor relations website [2]. Company Overview - Imperial Oil is recognized as Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major crude oil producer, committed to high standards in technology and innovation for responsible energy resource development [3]. - The company has a long-standing history of growth and financial stability in Canada, focusing on increasing cash flow and delivering industry-leading shareholder returns [5][7]. Dividend Announcement - Imperial declared a quarterly dividend of 72 cents per share for the third quarter of 2025, payable on October 1, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - This dividend remains unchanged from the second quarter of 2025, indicating consistent shareholder returns [7]. Board of Directors Update - The company announced the appointment of Tanya Bryja to its board of directors, effective September 16, 2025 [6].

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.09% as of the report [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.05%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.11%, France's CAC40 down 0.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.07% [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil is down 0.88% at $62.89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.83% at $66.53 per barrel [2] Economic Outlook - The potential U.S. government shutdown could lead to a "data fog" affecting economic outlook, with key economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, likely to be delayed [2] - The delay in economic data could impact critical policy decisions, such as whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates again in the upcoming meeting [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the looming government shutdown, investor sentiment remains optimistic, focusing on strong U.S. economic performance and corporate earnings rather than the shutdown risk [3] - UBS suggests that investors should not be overly concerned about the shutdown but should focus on other market drivers like continued Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expresses an open attitude towards future rate cuts but emphasizes the need for caution due to current inflation rates being above the 2% target [4] - Bullard highlights the importance of resisting inflation rates slightly above the target, regardless of the causes [4] Copper Market - Several investment banks have raised their copper price forecasts due to expected supply shortages, with JPMorgan increasing its Q4 LME copper price forecast from $9,350 per ton to $11,000 per ton [5] - Bank of America has also raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 11% to $11,313 per ton, while Goldman Sachs has revised its annual supply-demand balance from a surplus to a shortage of 5.5 million tons [5] Company News - Boeing is planning to develop a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX, aiming to regain market share lost due to safety and quality issues [7] - Ford and General Motors have extended the $7,500 electric vehicle lease tax credit, allowing dealers to offer this incentive to customers [8] - CenterPoint Energy plans to invest $65 billion over the next decade to expand its electric grid capacity, anticipating a significant increase in electricity demand [9] - ExxonMobil is planning to cut approximately 2,000 jobs globally as part of its long-term restructuring plan, which represents about 3% to 4% of its total workforce [9]

Core Insights - Imperial Oil (IMO.US) plans to cut approximately 20% of its workforce by the end of 2027 due to potential oversupply in the global oil market [1] - The company aims to consolidate operations and focus on core activities, expecting a one-time pre-tax restructuring charge of approximately CAD 330 million (USD 237 million) in Q3 2025 [1] - By the end of 2024, Imperial Oil's total employee count is projected to be around 5,100, with annual savings of CAD 150 million expected by 2028 [1] - The company’s Kearl oil sands and Cold Lake projects are reported to be performing at or above standards [1] - Smead Capital Management Inc. CEO Cole Smead expressed support for the company's current initiatives, highlighting efficiency as a key metric for investors in the sector [1] Financial Performance - Imperial Oil's CEO John Whelan stated the company is working towards a resilient business model to adapt to various commodity market conditions [2] - The company reduced upstream unit costs by CAD 3 per barrel last year and plans further cost reductions this year [2] - Despite industry challenges, Imperial Oil's stock price has increased by approximately 35% over the past year, outperforming four other major oil sands producers [2]

Core Viewpoint - Canada's Imperial Oil plans to reduce employee roles by approximately 20% by the end of 2027 as part of its restructuring plan [1] Company Summary - Imperial Oil anticipates a significant workforce reduction, targeting a 20% decrease in employee roles [1]

Core Insights - Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) shares closed at $92.96, near its 52-week high of $93.09, reflecting a 38.6% gain over the past year, outperforming the sub-industry and broader oil and energy sector [1][9] - The company has demonstrated strong performance compared to peers such as Gibson Energy Inc., Suncor Energy Inc., and Cenovus Energy Inc., which gained 14.3%, 15%, and 4.4% respectively [2][3] Company Performance - Imperial Oil is recognized as one of Canada's most resilient energy companies, with a diversified portfolio that includes upstream, downstream, and chemicals [4] - The company achieved record upstream production averaging 427,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), the highest second-quarter level in over 30 years, with Kearl reaching 275,000 gross barrels per day [6][9] - The Strathcona renewable diesel facility, the largest in Canada, is expected to enhance the company's clean energy profile and long-term growth [7][10] Financial Strength - Imperial Oil has returned over C$20 billion to shareholders since 2020, including C$15 billion in buybacks, and has a strong track record of dividend growth, with a quarterly dividend of 72 Canadian cents per share [11] - The company ended the second quarter with C$2.4 billion in cash and modest debt of C$4 billion, indicating a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility [12] Growth Prospects - Future growth initiatives, such as the Leming SAGD redevelopment expected to bring first oil by late 2025, further enhance the company's medium-term outlook [12] - The backing from ExxonMobil provides Imperial Oil with unmatched financial strength and access to low-cost capital, positioning it well for long-term value creation [4][13]