Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.48 per share, a decline of 10.3% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 21.9% to $11.11 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 7.2% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project 'Gross Oil-Equivalent Production' to reach 436.72 KBBL, up from 421 KBBL a year ago [5]. - 'Gross Natural Gas Production' is estimated at 29.86 Mcf, slightly down from 30 Mcf in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Gross Total Crude Oil Production' is forecasted to be 427.13 KBBL, compared to 416 KBBL a year ago [5]. Daily Production Estimates - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Conventional' is expected to be 4.77 KBBL, down from 5 KBBL in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Net Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Kearl' is projected at 180.17 KBBL, down from 183 KBBL a year ago [6]. - 'Net Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Cold Lake' is estimated at 108.58 KBBL, consistent with last year's figure of 108 KBBL [7]. Additional Production Insights - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Syncrude' is expected to reach 76.01 KBBL, up from 73 KBBL a year ago [8]. - 'Gross Crude Oil and NGL Production per day - Cold Lake' is projected at 154.07 KBBL, compared to 142 KBBL last year [8]. - 'Total Refinery throughput' is expected to be 417.56 KBBL, up from 407 KBBL in the same quarter last year [9]. Sales Projections - 'Net Petroleum Products Sales' is estimated at 469.33 KBBL, compared to 450 KBBL a year ago [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Imperial Oil despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Imperial Oil is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.48 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 10.3%, while revenues are projected to be $11.11 billion, an increase of 21.9% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, which historically leads to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Imperial Oil exceeded the expected earnings of $1.42 per share by delivering $1.69, resulting in a surprise of +19.01% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. - Although Imperial Oil does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [16].

Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Estimates - Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta revised ratings and estimates for several major American oil companies, reflecting average Brent oil prices of $75/b in 2025 and 2026, consistent with the updated oil range of $65-$80/b [1] - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with a price forecast increase from $18 to $19, indicating strong upside potential from the Retail and Logistics segment and margin recovery expectations in Singapore [1][2] - Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell, with a price forecast maintained at C$90.00, despite strong operational performance at key assets [3][4] - Phillips 66 (PSX) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, with a price forecast of $132 maintained, as the analyst monitors operational improvements amid a weaker Chemicals margin environment [5] Group 2: Earnings Estimates - For 2025-2026, PARR's EPS estimates were adjusted to $0.67 (from $0.79) and $2.97 (from $2.73), reflecting updates on commodity prices and operational metrics [3] - Imperial Oil's EPS estimates for 2025-2026 were revised to C$8.35 (from C$8.04) and C$9.06 (from C$9.65), compared to consensus estimates of C$8.23 and C$8.94, respectively [5] - Overall, Mehta's estimates for EPS in 2025 were adjusted to $7.39 (from $7.69) and $13.17 (from $12.75) for the following year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and outlook of Imperial Oil, highlighting the expectation of continued strong cash flow from operations due to limited expansion options and debt repayment needs [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Imperial Oil is anticipated to generate significant cash flow from its operations, which is a positive indicator for the company's financial health [1]. - The company has limited options for expansion, suggesting that the cash generated may be primarily used for shareholder returns or debt repayment rather than growth initiatives [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The author expresses a long position in Imperial Oil shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance and potential for returns [2]. - The article reflects a personal opinion on the investment potential of Imperial Oil, emphasizing the importance of cash flow in evaluating the company's prospects [2].

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is a significant player in Canada's energy sector, involved in the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, and is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation [1][2] Group 1: Strengths and Opportunities - Record-breaking production in Q4, averaging 460,000 barrels per day, contributed to a full-year production of 433,000 barrels per day, ensuring revenue stability [4] - Strong operational performance at Kearl, achieving an annual production of 281,000 barrels per day, supports long-term stability and allows capitalizing on favorable crude pricing [5] - Increased quarterly dividend by 20% to 72 Canadian cents per share, reflecting management's confidence in cash flow and long-term profitability, with C$16 billion returned to shareholders over the past three years [6] - Low natural decline rates in oil sands operations at Kearl and Cold Lake ensure long-term revenue stability and reduce capital expenditure needs [7] - Vertical integration across the oil value chain reduces reliance on external suppliers and protects against price shocks, making IMO a lower-risk investment [8] - Investment in advanced recovery techniques like solvent-assisted SAGD at Cold Lake could unlock additional reserves and improve cost structure [10] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Declining net income in Q4 2024 to C$1.2 billion from C$1.4 billion the previous year raises concerns about growth, with full-year revenues also declining slightly [11] - Weakened refining margins due to increased market supply, with synthetic crude oil realizations falling C$6.27 per barrel, could impact downstream earnings [12] - Dependence on volatile oil prices linked to geopolitical risks and global economic conditions adds uncertainty to profitability [13] - Slower growth compared to U.S. shale producers, which can ramp up production quickly, makes IMO less attractive for growth-focused investors [14] - Current EV/EBITDA ratio of 5.81 is higher than the Canadian Oil and Gas sub-industry average of 3.65, indicating potential overvaluation concerns [15]

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which reflects EPS estimates from sell-side analysts for the current and following years, indicating a company's earnings outlook [1][2]. - A strong correlation exists between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, influenced by institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [4][6]. Recent Developments for Imperial Oil - Analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Imperial Oil, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 15.5% over the past three months [8]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Imperial Oil is expected to earn $5.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -11.7% [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Imperial Oil to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for near-term price increases due to favorable earnings estimate revisions [10].

Core Viewpoint - Imperial Oil (IMO) is currently outperforming the Oils-Energy sector, with a year-to-date gain of 6.6% compared to the sector's average return of -1.8% [4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Imperial Oil is ranked 2 (Buy) in the Zacks Rank, indicating a positive earnings outlook [3]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Imperial Oil's full-year earnings has increased by 15.5% over the past three months, reflecting improving analyst sentiment [3]. - The company belongs to the Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry, which is currently ranked 88 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with its stocks losing about 8.3% year-to-date [5]. Group 2: Sector Comparison - The Oils-Energy group, which includes 247 companies, is currently ranked 8 within the Zacks Sector Rank [2]. - NextDecade (NEXT), another Oils-Energy stock, has returned 0.7% year-to-date, indicating it has also outperformed the sector [4][6]. - The Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry, to which NextDecade belongs, is ranked 4 and has moved -0.9% year-to-date [6].

Operational Efficiency and Technology - The company completed its multiyear program to convert 81 haul trucks to autonomous operation at the Kearl site, enhancing productivity and reducing costs [175]. - The company's operational efficiency is crucial for competitive performance, requiring continuous management focus on cost control and productivity enhancements [171]. - The company relies on research and development from both its own organization and ExxonMobil to maintain competitive positioning and adapt to technological changes [172]. Economic and Market Factors - Current inflationary pressures have persisted, impacting operating costs such as energy, transportation, and materials, which could adversely affect financial results [168]. - The company’s future business results depend on its ability to manage both external economic factors and internal capital allocation effectively [169]. - Low commodity prices could adversely affect reserves development and overall financial performance [185]. Future Production and Reserves - Future production and cash flows are highly dependent on the company's ability to replace produced reserves through exploration, appraisal, and acquisitions [184]. - Economically recoverable oil and natural gas reserves estimates involve significant uncertainties, including geological and engineering factors [185]. - Future net cash flows are subject to variances that could be material, affecting production, revenues, and operating costs [186]. - Actual production and operating expenditures may differ substantially from initial estimates, leading to financial implications [186]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - Regulatory changes, including environmental regulations, may impose significant compliance costs and impact project viability [185]. - The company’s capital investment guidance in lower-emission investments is contingent on the availability of opportunities and public policy support [16]. Competition and Market Position - The company faces competition from alternative energy sources and established competitors as it pursues lower-emission business opportunities [182]. - The company’s reputation is a critical asset, influenced by operational incidents, consumer perceptions, and progress in energy transition efforts [183]. Cybersecurity Concerns - Cybersecurity threats are a significant concern, with the company experiencing several cyber-attacks on suppliers and partners in 2024, none of which had a material impact [180]. Financial Implications of Abandonment - Abandonment and reclamation costs, including mining operations, are critical factors in estimating future cash flows [185].

Group 1 - Imperial Oil (IMO) is outperforming the Oils-Energy sector with a year-to-date return of 8.4%, compared to the sector average of 4.5% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Imperial Oil is 2 (Buy), indicating strong analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook, with a consensus estimate for full-year earnings increasing by 2.4% over the past quarter [3] - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry, which includes Imperial Oil, is ranked 86 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average return of 3.7% this year [5] Group 2 - Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) is another Oils-Energy stock that has outperformed the sector, with a year-to-date increase of 41.2% [4] - The consensus estimate for Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s current year EPS has risen by 28.3% over the past three months, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - The Alternative Energy - Other industry, to which Kolibri Global Energy belongs, is ranked 60 and has gained 13.3% this year [6]

Core Insights - Imperial Oil reported revenue of $9.01 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, a decrease of 6.4% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.69, down from $1.81 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.2 billion by 19.54%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.42 by 19.01% [1] Financial Performance - Total refinery throughput was 411 KBBL, slightly above the average estimate of 405.67 KBBL [4] - Gross crude oil and NGL production per day from Kearl was 212 KBBL, exceeding the average estimate of 209.9 KBBL [4] - Net petroleum products sales were 458 KBBL, below the average estimate of 485.08 KBBL [4] - Refinery capacity utilization was 95%, higher than the average estimate of 93.8% [4] - Gross oil-equivalent production reached 460 KBBL, surpassing the average estimate of 449.15 KBBL [4] - Gross natural gas production was 29 Mcf, slightly below the average estimate of 30.28 Mcf [4] - Total petrochemical sales were 174 KTon, significantly above the average estimate of 128.35 KTon [4] - Net crude oil and NGL production per day from conventional sources was 5 KBBL, exceeding the average estimate of 4.66 KBBL [4] - Net crude oil and NGL production per day from Cold Lake was 118 KBBL, above the average estimate of 111.99 KBBL [4] - Gross crude oil and NGL production per day from Cold Lake was 157 KBBL, exceeding the average estimate of 149.79 KBBL [4] - Gross crude oil and NGL production per day from Syncrude matched the average estimate of 81 KBBL [4] - Gross crude oil and NGL production per day from conventional sources was 5 KBBL, above the average estimate of 3.42 KBBL [4] Market Performance - Shares of Imperial Oil have returned +6.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]