Mergers and Acquisitions - Jumia Technologies, 非洲最大的电商公司，已引起电信公司 Axian 的收购兴趣 [1]

Market Overview - Africa's social commerce market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 26.7%, reaching USD 4.45 billion by 2025, following a robust CAGR of 38.4% from 2021 to 2024 [2][3] - The market is expected to expand from USD 3.51 billion in 2024 to approximately USD 9.43 billion by 2030, indicating sustained growth [2] Key Drivers - The rapid evolution of Africa's social commerce landscape is driven by mobile-first internet adoption, fintech integration, and the increasing role of social media platforms in online shopping [4] - A young, tech-savvy population and rising smartphone penetration create an ideal environment for businesses to engage with consumers through social channels [4] Platform Engagement - Platforms such as Facebook Marketplace, Instagram Shopping, and WhatsApp Business are essential for SMEs to access the digital economy [5] - Over 40% of internet users in key African markets have made purchases via social commerce platforms, highlighting the growing engagement [9] Fintech Integration - Mobile money and fintech innovations are breaking down barriers to digital transactions, making social commerce more accessible [6] - The introduction of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) solutions and digital wallets enhances consumer participation in e-commerce [6][10] Competitive Landscape - The social commerce sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with local and international players striving for market share [13] - Jumia's strategic exit from South Africa and Tunisia aims to focus on high-growth markets in West and East Africa [16] - Takealot is expanding into underserved markets by hiring personal shoppers to increase e-commerce penetration [16] Influencer Marketing - Influencer marketing, particularly through micro-influencers, is driving social commerce growth, with brands increasing spending on partnerships [12][16] - The rise of live shopping and short-form video content on platforms like TikTok is reshaping consumer interactions with brands [12][16] Regulatory Developments - South African authorities are exploring regulatory "sandboxes" to foster innovation in social commerce, particularly in digital lending and AI-driven customer support [16]

Group 1 - Jumia Technologies reported a 7.9% gap down at the open after Q1 earnings, reminiscent of previous earnings reactions despite better news last time [1] - The company provided full-year guidance, indicating expectations for future performance [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in financial markets, including the dot-com bubble, financial crisis, and coronavirus pandemic, emphasizing the importance of understanding market extremes [1] - The author's blog offers unique perspectives on trading and investing, covering various financial instruments and leveraging both technical and fundamental analysis [1]

Core Insights - Jumia Technologies' shares surged by 24% following the announcement of solid growth in orders despite a 26% decline in revenue, indicating a potential inflection point for the company as it provided profitability guidance for 2027 [1][3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 26% to $36.3 million, with a constant currency decline of 18%, influenced by the exit from Tunisia and South Africa [3] - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) fell by 11% to $161.7 million, or 2% in constant currency [3] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was reported at $15.7 million, continuing the trend of losses for the company [4] Growth Metrics - Orders for physical goods increased by 21%, marking the fastest growth rate in two years, while active customers ordering physical goods rose by 15% [3] - In Nigeria, orders grew by 22% and GMV increased by 20%, showcasing strong performance in that market [3] Future Outlook - For 2025, Jumia anticipates physical goods orders to grow by 20%-25%, an increase from the previous estimate of 15%-20%, with GMV projected to rise by 10%-15% to between $795 million and $830 million [5] - The company is focusing on conventional e-commerce, particularly in shipping physical goods, after exploring various business models [5][6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $36.3 million, down 26% year over year and down 18% in constant currency, primarily due to lower corporate sales in Egypt and currency devaluation [19][36]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million, compared to a loss of $4.3 million in Q1 2024, while loss before income tax improved to $16.5 million from $39.6 million year over year [19][41]. - Cash burn for the quarter was $23.2 million, including $8 million in working capital, with expectations to significantly reduce cash burn in upcoming quarters [14][41]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical Goods orders grew 21% year over year, with quarterly active customers ordering Physical Goods increasing by 15% year over year, marking the highest growth rates in two years [15][16]. - GMV declined 11% year over year, primarily due to currency headwinds and lower corporate sales, but excluding corporate sales, GMV would have grown 10% year over year [16][19]. - Fulfillment expense per order decreased to $2.07, down 14% year over year, reflecting improved efficiency [39][11]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt represented approximately 26%, 22%, 15%, and 10% of company GMV respectively, with other markets contributing 27% [22]. - Nigeria saw Physical Goods orders grow by 22% and GMV increase by 18% year over year, while Kenya experienced a 36% growth in Physical Goods orders [23][24]. - Egypt's Physical Goods orders were down 15% year over year, with GMV decreasing 69% in USD and 54% in constant currency due to a decline in corporate sales [25][26]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce losses, drive efficiency, and deliver measurable financial improvements, with a focus on margin expansion and financial discipline [6][7]. - Jumia is expanding its logistics platform to monetize its infrastructure beyond the core marketplace, targeting third-party sellers and social commerce merchants [28][62]. - The company is also focused on cost management and operational discipline, with structural cost savings and margin expansion as core priorities for 2025 [43]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while currency headwinds have impacted profitability, they expect to see improved supply availability from Asian manufacturers, which could benefit the business [32][56]. - The company is on track to achieve profitability on a loss before income tax basis in Q4 2026, with full-year profitability targeted for 2027 [9][45]. - Management expressed confidence in the strategy direction and the path towards profitability, emphasizing the importance of operational discipline and cost management [33][43]. Other Important Information - The company has implemented a highly restrictive hiring policy and reduced total headcount by about 3% since the beginning of the year [11]. - Jumia remains debt-free, with liquidity at $110.7 million, including cash and cash equivalents [42][43]. - The company is seeing strong demand in key categories such as electronics, fashion, and home goods, indicating robust consumer engagement [15][16]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you explain the relationship between orders and GMV, particularly regarding corporate sales? - Management clarified that corporate sales are typically high-value orders that significantly impact GMV, leading to a disconnect between healthy order trends and declining GMV due to corporate sales weakness [49][50]. Question: How should we think about cash use from inventory levels necessary to fulfill growth? - Management indicated that a significant part of cash burn was due to increased working capital for inventory buildup ahead of major campaigns, but they expect lower working capital impact in the coming quarters [54]. Question: Have you seen an uptick in supply from Asia, and is that related to the raised physical order guidance? - Management confirmed an uptick in international vendor sales, particularly from China, contributing to the raised guidance for physical orders [55][56]. Question: What is the monetization strategy for the Jumia delivery business? - The delivery business is designed to be higher margin and lower volume compared to marketplace revenue, with profitability from day one due to well-known variable costs [90][92]. Question: What is the current status of customer growth and profitability in key markets? - Management reported a 15% year-over-year growth in active customers, with Nigeria and Ivory Coast showing strong acceleration, while profitability varies across markets [95].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $36.3 million, down 26% year over year and down 18% in constant currency, primarily due to lower corporate sales in Egypt and currency devaluation [19][36]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of $4.3 million in Q1 2024 [19][41]. - Loss before income tax was $16.5 million, a significant improvement from $39.6 million in the same period last year [19][41]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Marketplace revenue for Q1 was $18.1 million, down 30% year over year [36]. - Revenue from first-party sales was $17.8 million, down 21% year over year [36]. - Fulfillment expense per order decreased to $2.07, down 14% year over year, indicating improved efficiency [39][11]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - GMV declined 11% year over year, primarily due to currency headwinds and lower corporate sales, particularly in Egypt [16][19]. - Excluding corporate sales, GMV would have grown 10% year over year, highlighting strengths in the consumer business [16][19]. - Physical Goods orders grew 21% year over year, driven by strong demand [15][19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce losses, drive efficiency, and deliver measurable financial improvements, with a focus on margin expansion and financial discipline [6][7]. - Jumia is expanding its logistics network to monetize its infrastructure beyond the core marketplace, which is expected to enhance cost efficiency [28][62]. - The company is targeting profitability by 2027, with a loss before income tax forecasted to improve significantly in 2026 [9][45]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while currency headwinds have impacted profitability, they expect to see improved growth trends moving forward as these effects have lapped [18][32]. - The company remains confident in its strategy and believes it is well-positioned to capture supply from Asia as global trade dynamics shift [32][56]. - Management emphasized the importance of operational discipline and cost management in achieving sustainable growth [43][33]. Other Important Information - The company has reduced its total headcount by about 3% as part of its cost control measures [11]. - Jumia's liquidity position at the end of Q1 was $110.7 million, including cash and cash equivalents [42]. - The company remains debt-free, with borrowing related solely to lease liabilities [43]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you explain the relationship between orders and GMV? - Corporate sales are typically high-value orders that generate significant GMV with few orders, leading to a disconnect when corporate sales decrease [49]. Question: How should we think about cash use from inventory levels? - A significant part of cash burn is due to increased working capital for inventory ahead of major campaigns, but lower impacts are expected in the coming quarters [54]. Question: Have you seen an uptick in supply from Asia? - There has been a strong trend in item sales from international vendors, particularly from China, with a 61% increase in gross items sold [55]. Question: What is the monetization strategy for the Jumia delivery business? - The delivery business is designed to be higher margin and lower volume compared to marketplace revenue, with profitability from day one [90]. Question: How significant is the deliveries business to revenue for Ivory Coast? - The deliveries business is profitable but lower than marketplace revenues, with potential for further scaling [93].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $36.3 million, down 26% year over year and down 18% in constant currency, primarily due to lower corporate sales in Egypt and currency devaluation [33][34] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million in Q1 2025 compared to a loss of $4.3 million in Q1 2024, while loss before income tax improved to $16.5 million from $39.6 million year over year [17][39] - Cash burn for the quarter was $23.2 million, including $8 million in working capital, with expectations to significantly reduce cash burn in upcoming quarters [13][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical Goods orders grew 21% year over year, with quarterly active customers ordering Physical Goods increasing by 15% year over year, marking the highest growth rates in two years [14][15] - GMV declined 11% year over year, primarily due to currency headwinds and lower corporate sales, but would have grown 10% year over year excluding corporate sales [15][16] - Fulfillment expense per order decreased to $2.07, down 14% year over year, reflecting improved efficiency [10][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt represented approximately 26%, 22%, 15%, and 10% of company GMV respectively, with other markets contributing 27% [20] - Nigeria saw Physical Goods orders grow by 22% and GMV increase by 18% year over year, while Kenya experienced a 36% growth in Physical Goods orders [21][22] - Egypt's Physical Goods orders were down 15% year over year, with GMV decreasing 69% in USD, primarily due to a decline in corporate sales [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce losses, drive efficiency, and deliver measurable financial improvements, with a focus on margin expansion and financial discipline [5][6] - A comprehensive restructuring plan was launched in early 2024 to address operational challenges, particularly in Egypt [23] - The company is expanding its logistics platform to monetize its infrastructure beyond the core marketplace, targeting third-party sellers and social commerce merchants [25][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while currency headwinds have impacted profitability, they expect a cleaner year-over-year comparison moving forward as these effects have lapped [16][34] - The company anticipates continued momentum in Q2 2025, with expectations for Physical Goods orders growth in the range of 20% to 25% [43][44] - Management remains confident in achieving profitability by Q4 2026 and full-year profitability in 2027, driven by cost management and volume increases [44][72] Other Important Information - The company has renegotiated or terminated several key software and hosting contracts, expecting significant cost savings starting in the second half of 2025 [11][38] - The liquidity position at the end of Q1 2025 was $110.7 million, with no financial debt, reflecting a strong cash position [40][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you explain the relationship between orders and GMV? - Management clarified that corporate sales, which are high-value orders, significantly impact GMV, leading to a disconnect between orders and GMV [47][48] Question: How should we think about cash use from inventory levels? - Management indicated that increased working capital was primarily used to build up inventories ahead of significant commercial events, and they anticipate lower impacts from working capital in the coming quarters [51][52] Question: Have you seen an uptick in supply from Asia? - Management confirmed an uptick in international vendor sales, particularly from China, and expects this trend to continue as access to supply improves [53][54] Question: How do you plan to approach marketing as fundamentals improve? - Management stated that they are now in a position to be more aggressive with marketing in markets where fundamentals are strong, such as Nigeria [55][56] Question: What is the timeline for the logistics expansion? - Management explained that the logistics network is now stable enough to monetize outside the marketplace, with no negative impact on margins expected [60][62] Question: What is the visibility on 2026 guidance? - Management indicated that they expect to reach breakeven by Q4 2026, driven by growth and cost management efforts [72]

Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 26% year-over-year to $36.3 million[10], or 18% on a constant currency basis[10] - GMV decreased by 11% year-over-year to $161.7 million[10], or 2% on a constant currency basis[10] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million[10], compared to a $4.3 million loss in Q1 2024[10] - Net loss before income tax improved from $39.6 million in Q1 2024 to $16.5 million in Q1 2025[9] Usage Metrics - Physical goods Orders grew by 21% year-over-year[9] - Quarterly Active Customers grew by 14% year-over-year[18] - Gross items sold by International sellers grew 61% year-over-year[9] Guidance - FY2025 loss before income tax is projected to be between negative $50 million and negative $55 million[9], with physical goods order growth of 20-25%[9] - GMV is projected to be between $795 million and $830 million, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 15%, respectively, excluding foreign exchange impacts[55] - FY2026 loss before income tax is projected to be between negative $25 million and negative $30 million[9]; breakeven loss before income tax is expected in Q4 2026[9] Other Key Points - Liquidity position was $110.7 million, comprised of $61.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $49.1 million in term deposits[11] - Net cash flow used in operating activities was $21.2 million[10] - Share of PUS (Pick-up stations) in shipped packages decreased by 7 percentage points[13]

Supervisory Board Structure and Responsibilities - The supervisory board currently consists of five members, with a requirement for at least 40.0% female representation by December 31, 2024[601]. - The company must obtain supervisory board approval for material modifications to its business fields, including entering new fields of business[602]. - The supervisory board is responsible for monitoring the management board and must receive regular reports on current operations and future planning[590]. - The supervisory board has established a requirement for a quorum of at least half of its members to be present for voting[600]. - The supervisory board has the authority to initiate or terminate court cases involving amounts greater than €1.0 million[608]. - The company is subject to German legislation on stock corporations, specifically the German Stock Corporation Act[585]. - The supervisory board members are entitled to reimbursement of reasonable out-of-pocket expenses incurred in the performance of their duties[624]. - The company does not pay fees for attendance at supervisory board or committee meetings[624]. Management Board Composition and Compensation - The management board consists of two members, Francis Dufay (CEO) and Antoine Maillet-Mezeray (Executive Vice President, Finance & Operations), with terms ending on November 4, 2025[616]. - The supervisory board compensation system includes $125,000 per annum for ordinary members and $250,000 for the chairperson, with additional compensation for committee chairs[624]. - The chairperson of the audit committee receives an additional $90,000 per annum, while other audit committee members receive $75,000[624]. - The company reported a total compensation of $268,000 for Jonathan D. Klein, the chairperson, in 2024, reflecting a 93% increase from the previous year[625]. - Blaise Judja-Sato and Angela Kaya Mwanza received total compensations of $243,000 and $188,000 respectively in 2024, with increases of 52% and 67% from 2023[625]. - The target compensation for CEO Francis Dufay in 2024 is $1,094,000, which represents a 8.6% increase from $1,007,000 in 2023[633]. - The total target compensation for EVP Finance and Operations Antoine Maillet-Mezeray in 2024 is $1,093,000, up from $1,014,000 in 2023, indicating a 7.8% increase[633]. - The fixed compensation for Francis Dufay includes a base salary of $473,000, which is 43% of his total target compensation for 2024[633]. - The variable compensation for both management board members consists of short-term incentives of $279,000 and long-term incentives of $342,000 each[633]. - The management board members are required to acquire shares worth 100% of their annual gross base salary and hold them until the end of their appointment[646]. - The maximum compensation for each management board member is capped at €15 million per fiscal year[630]. - The company has implemented malus and clawback provisions in the service agreements, allowing for reduction or reclamation of compensation under certain conditions[644]. - No malus or clawback provisions were applied in fiscal year 2024[645]. - The total fixed compensation for Francis Dufay in 2024 is $473,000, which is 62% of his total compensation awarded[636]. - The total variable compensation awarded to Antoine Maillet-Mezeray in 2024 is $285,000, which is 38% of his total compensation awarded[636]. Employee Statistics and Compensation - As of December 31, 2024, the company employed a total of 2,163 employees, a decrease from 4,318 employees in 2022[677]. - The average remuneration per employee in 2024 increased to €19.7 thousand ($21.3 thousand) from €15.0 thousand ($16.2 thousand) in 2023[679]. - As of December 31, 2024, 52.9% of the workforce consisted of marketplace operations and management employees, followed by logistics employees at 40.4%[678]. - The company’s employee distribution by geography shows a significant decline in West Africa from 1,686 in 2022 to 892 in 2024[678]. - The company’s employee count in North Africa decreased from 1,498 in 2022 to 645 in 2024[678]. - The company’s employee count in East and South Africa decreased from 622 in 2022 to 320 in 2024[678]. - The company’s employee count in other regions decreased from 512 in 2022 to 306 in 2024[678]. Shareholding and Ownership - The company’s shareholding requirements were exceeded by Mr. Maillet-Mezeray and Mr. Dufay as of February 1, 2025[647]. - The company’s audit committee includes at least three members, with Anne Eriksson serving as the audit committee financial expert[668]. - Baillie Gifford & Co. holds 18,131,782 shares, representing 7.4% of the outstanding ordinary shares as of February 1, 2025[686]. - Pernod Ricard Deutschland GmbH owns 15,393,840 shares, accounting for 6.3% of the total shares[686]. - The total number of ADRs outstanding is 116,037,240, with underlying ordinary shares representing 94.8% of the total[687]. - Total beneficial ownership by all members of the supervisory and management boards is 1,079,532 shares, or 0.4% of the total[686]. Management Compensation Projections - Key management compensation for 2023 is projected at USD 5.3 million, increasing to USD 5.6 million in 2024[690]. - Short-term employee benefits for key management are expected to rise from USD 3.3 million in 2023 to USD 3.5 million in 2024[690]. - Share-based compensation for key management is anticipated to increase from USD 1.9 million in 2023 to USD 2.1 million in 2024[690]. Corporate Governance - The company does not have any arrangements that may result in a change of control[687]. - All shareholders have equal voting rights, with no different classes of shares[687]. - The company cannot determine the identity of its shareholders due to the bearer form of ordinary shares[687]. - The company issued its most recent annual compliance declaration on December 18, 2024, following its listing on the New York Stock Exchange in April 2019[674].

Company Information - Jumia Technologies AG filed its Annual Report 2024 on Form 20-F on March 7, 2025[4] - Francis Dufay serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Antoine Maillet-Mezeray as the Executive Vice President, Finance & Operations[9] Report Details - The report includes a press release as Exhibit 99.1, detailing the company's performance and future outlook[6]