Core Insights - Jumia Technologies AG reported an EPS of -$0.10, missing the estimated EPS of -$0.06, while exceeding revenue expectations with $61.4 million against an estimated $46.9 million [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a notable revenue growth of 34.4% year-over-year, reaching $61.4 million, and reported a 36% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) to $279.5 million, indicating strong platform activity [3]. - Despite the revenue beat, Jumia's stock price fell by 15.8% in a single trading day, contrasting with smaller declines in broader market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which fell by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively [2][5]. - Jumia's financial health is characterized by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, indicating conservative debt usage, but it faces challenges with a negative enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of -7.75 [4]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, the significant stock price drop of 15.8% reflects investor concerns despite the positive revenue growth [2][5]. - The current ratio of 1.20 suggests that the company has a reasonable level of liquidity to cover short-term liabilities, but improvements in profit margins are necessary to sustain stock performance [4].

Core Insights - Jumia's stock experienced a significant decline of 15.8% in a single trading day, despite being up 159% over the past year [1][5] - The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $61.4 million, which exceeded Wall Street's expectations, but also posted a larger-than-expected loss of $0.08 per share [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Jumia was 34.4% year over year, surpassing the average analyst estimate of approximately $60.66 million [3] - The loss per share of $0.08 was higher than the anticipated loss of $0.05 per share [3] Market Position - Jumia's current market capitalization stands at approximately $1.27 billion, with a valuation of about 5.2 times this year's expected sales [5] - The company's gross margin is reported at 48.15% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jumia Technologies AG reported disappointing fourth-quarter EPS results, leading to a significant decline in share price despite revenue exceeding expectations [1][6]. Group 1: Earnings Report - The company reported a fourth-quarter EPS loss of 8 cents, which was worse than Wall Street's expectation of a 5 cent loss [2]. - Revenue for the fourth quarter was $61.395 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of $60.657 million, marking a year-over-year increase from $45.7 million, representing a 34% growth [2]. Group 2: Operational Performance - Jumia experienced a 36% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV), reaching $279.5 million, indicating improved platform activity [3]. - The operating loss improved to $10.6 million, and the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million, reflecting progress in profitability metrics [3]. Group 3: Liquidity Position - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $77.8 million, and net cash used in operating activities decreased to $1.7 million from $26.5 million a year ago, indicating reduced cash burn [4]. Group 4: Future Guidance - For 2026, Jumia projected GMV growth of 27% to 32% and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25 to $30 million, with a goal of achieving adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2026 and full-year profitability in 2027 [5]. - The company plans to exit the Algerian market, which accounted for about 2% of 2025 GMV, to focus on higher-potential markets [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue reached $61.4 million, up 34% year-over-year, or up 24% on a constant currency basis [21] - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.3 million in the prior year quarter [10] - Loss before income tax was $9.7 million, a 45% decrease year-over-year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year, adjusted for perimeter effects [6] - Adjusted for perimeter effects, physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year [8] - First-party sales represented 49% of total revenue, supported by international partnerships [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nigeria's physical goods GMV increased 50% year-over-year, while physical goods orders grew 33% [14] - Kenya's physical goods orders were up 50% year-over-year, with GMV increasing 48% [15] - Ghana delivered exceptional growth, with physical goods orders up 82% year-over-year and GMV increasing 124% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA break-even and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, with full-year profitability in 2027 [6][30] - Focus on expanding product assortment and improving availability and affordability to drive higher conversion rates [19] - Plans to strengthen marketing efforts, particularly in online channels, to support growth [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic stability in Africa, with stable currencies aiding business operations [51] - Egypt is expected to catch up in growth rates, with significant room for expansion [53] - The competitive environment remains rational, with less aggressive behavior from international entrants [17] Other Important Information - The company announced its decision to cease operations in Algeria, simplifying its footprint and improving operational focus [31] - The company has opened a new office in Yiwu, China, to enhance sourcing capabilities [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers for acceleration in 2026? - Management identified assortment improvement, market coverage expansion, and increased marketing investments as key drivers [33][34] Question: How does the company view capacity for future growth? - Management believes current fulfillment capacity is sufficient until at least the end of 2026, with no major capital expenditures expected [36][37] Question: What is the outlook for advertising revenue? - Management aims to increase advertising revenue from 1% of GMV to closer to 2% over the medium term, with ongoing improvements in monetization strategies [70][72] Question: How does the company assess the competitive landscape? - Management noted a softening from international competitors and emphasized the company's advantages in scale and sourcing infrastructure [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $61.4 million, up 34% year-over-year, or up 24% on a constant currency basis [21] - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.3 million in the prior year quarter [10] - Loss before income tax was $9.7 million, a 45% decrease year-over-year [11] - Quarterly cash burn declined to $4.7 million in Q4 2025 compared to $15.8 million in Q3 2025 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year, adjusted for perimeter effects [6] - Adjusted for perimeter effects, physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year [8] - First-party sales represented 49% of total revenue, supported by international partnerships [9] - Average order value for physical goods increased to $37 from $35 in Q4 2024 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nigeria's physical goods GMV increased 50% year-over-year, while physical goods orders grew 33% [14] - Kenya's physical goods orders were up 50% year-over-year, with GMV increasing 48% [15] - Ghana delivered exceptional growth, with physical goods orders up 82% year-over-year and GMV increasing 124% [16] - Egypt's physical goods orders increased 23% year-over-year, while GMV grew 2% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA break-even and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, with full-year profitability in 2027 [30] - Focus on expanding product assortment and improving availability and affordability to drive higher conversion rates [19] - Plans to enhance marketing efforts, particularly in under-penetrated online channels [19] - The company will exit Algeria to simplify operations and focus on markets with stronger growth potential [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic stability in Africa, with stable currencies aiding business operations [51] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, driven by improved assortment and market coverage [33] - Regulatory scrutiny on non-resident platforms is increasing, contributing to a more level playing field [18] Other Important Information - The company opened a new office in Yiwu, China, to enhance sourcing capabilities [12] - Headcount declined by 7% in 2025, indicating a more efficient organization [10] - Fulfillment cost per order improved to $1.97, a 12% year-over-year reduction [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers for acceleration in 2026? - Management identified assortment, market coverage, and improved marketing investments as key drivers for growth in 2026 [33][35] Question: How does the company view capacity for future growth? - Management believes current fulfillment capacity is sufficient until at least the end of 2026, with no major capital expenditures expected [36][37] Question: What is the outlook for advertising revenue? - Management aims to increase advertising revenue from 1% of GMV to closer to 2% over the medium term, with ongoing improvements in monetization strategies [70][72] Question: How does the company assess competition? - Management noted a rational competitive environment, with some softening from international competitors and a strong position against local platforms [76][77]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $61.4 million, up 34% year-over-year, or up 24% on a constant currency basis [19] - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.3 million in the prior year quarter [8][24] - Loss before income tax was $9.7 million, a 45% decrease year-over-year [9][24] - Quarterly cash burn declined to $4.7 million in Q4 2025 compared to $15.8 million in Q3 2025 [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year, adjusted for perimeter effects [5][7] - Adjusted for perimeter effects, physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year [6] - First-party sales represented 49% of total revenue, supported by international partnerships [7] - Average order value for physical goods increased to $37 from $35 in Q4 2024 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nigeria's physical goods GMV increased 50% year-over-year, while physical goods orders grew 33% [11] - Kenya's physical goods orders were up 50% year-over-year, with GMV increasing 48% [12] - Ghana delivered exceptional growth, with physical goods orders up 82% year-over-year and GMV increasing 124% [14] - Egypt's physical goods orders increased 23% year-over-year, while GMV grew 2% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA break-even and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, with full-year profitability in 2027 [5][29] - Focus on expanding product assortment and improving availability and affordability to drive higher conversion rates [16][17] - Plans to enhance marketing efforts, particularly in under-penetrated online channels [17] - The company will exit Algeria to simplify operations and focus on markets with stronger growth potential [15][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic stability in Africa, with improving currency conditions [50] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, with GMV projected to grow between 27%-32% year-over-year [29] - Management highlighted the importance of operational efficiency and cost discipline to support sustainable growth [25] Other Important Information - The company opened a new office in Yiwu, China, to enhance sourcing capabilities and diversify product offerings [10] - Fulfillment cost per order improved to $1.97, a 12% year-over-year reduction [8] - The competitive environment remains rational, with less aggressive behavior from global entrants [15][77] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main drivers for acceleration in 2026? - Management identified assortment improvement, market coverage expansion, and increased marketing investments as key drivers [32][33] Question: How should we think about capacity expansion? - Management believes current fulfillment capacity is sufficient until the end of 2026, with no major CapEx expected [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for advertising revenue? - Management expects advertising revenue to gradually improve, targeting closer to 2% of GMV in the medium term [70][72] Question: Are there other countries considered for exit? - Management stated no other exits are planned at this stage, focusing on optimizing the current market footprint [41][42] Question: Will the company need to raise capital? - Management expressed confidence in achieving profitability without raising additional capital, although more liquidity could enable further investments [43][44]

Presentation IMPORTANT NOTICE This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial position, industry dynamics, business strategy and plans and our objectives for future operations, are forward-looking statements. These statements represent our opinions, expectations, beliefs, intentions, estimates or strategies regarding the future, which m ...

Core Thesis - Jumia Technologies AG is experiencing a significant turnaround, with a bullish outlook supported by recent operational improvements and market conditions [1][5]. Company Overview - Jumia operates an e-commerce platform across multiple regions, including West Africa, North Africa, East and South Africa, Europe, and the UAE [2]. - The company has faced challenges in the past, including a stock collapse of over 95% from its peak due to losses and a failed Western e-commerce model [3]. Strategic Changes - A major overhaul initiated in 2022 under CEO Francis Dufay has focused on local strategies, including shutting down Dubai operations and eliminating unprofitable segments like Jumia Food [3]. - The company has restructured its platform to emphasize affordability, trust, and a network of over 1,500 pickup points, which serve as both a logistics engine and a trust factor in markets hesitant about prepayment [4]. Financial Performance - Jumia has seen a reduction in cost per order and marketing expenses, contributing to improved unit economics [4]. - The company is now valued at approximately $1.3 billion and projects profitability by 2027, aiming to become a regional champion similar to Mercado Libre [5]. Market Position - Jumia is successfully competing against Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein, which face challenges in payments, returns, and delivery speed [4]. - The recent Black Friday sales event has demonstrated the effectiveness of Jumia's turnaround strategy, indicating a resurgence in order growth and gross merchandise volume (GMV) [5][7].

Group 1 - Jumia Technologies is often referred to as the Amazon of Africa, appealing to investors due to its potential in the high-growth e-commerce sector, with a share price of $14.17 and a market capitalization of $1.07 billion as of January 6 [1] - Super Group, a sportsbook operator, has seen a remarkable increase of over 94% in its stock price over the past year, making it one of the best-performing betting stocks [3] - Super Group's revenue from Africa has tripled since 2021, now accounting for 40% of the company's total revenue, primarily driven by South Africa, the continent's largest economy [4] Group 2 - Super Group ranks among the top three internet casino and sportsbook operators in the eight African nations where it operates, indicating its strong presence in the region [5] - The company has shifted its focus away from the U.S. market, abandoning its sports wagering and iGaming operations there, which aligns with its strategy to avoid complex profitability pathways in the U.S. [6] - In the third quarter, Super Group's internet casino revenue in Africa surged by 37%, with a promising long-term outlook for its sportsbook operations due to the increasing interest in sports betting among young, upwardly mobile Africans [7]

Group 1 - The company Jumia (JMIA) has experienced significant volatility but is currently on a path toward sustained growth and profitability, indicating potential for stock price appreciation [2] - The investment group, The Data Driven Investor, focuses on uncovering alpha in the AI sector while managing risks associated with market volatility, offering various strategies including options ideas and quantitative stock strategies [2] - The Long Term Growth Portfolio of The Data Driven Investor has achieved a nearly 194% increase since 2018, emphasizing a disciplined and risk-aware investment approach [1]