Core Thesis - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is positioned as a strong player in the U.S. Excess and Surplus (E&S) insurance market, leveraging its regulatory flexibility and proprietary technology to achieve superior profitability and efficiency [1][2][6] Company Overview - Kinsale Capital Group is a specialty insurer focused exclusively on the U.S. E&S market, which is valued at $115 billion, catering to high-risk businesses that are hard to insure [2] - The company does not have an investment or ventures arm, differentiating itself from competitors like Markel [2] Business Model and Strategy - Kinsale charges higher premiums and manages exclusions effectively, maintaining an exceptional loss ratio with a modest policy retention rate of around 60% [3] - The company’s portfolio includes unconventional risks such as firearm retailers, medical malpractice, disaster-exposed properties, and cybersecurity liabilities [3] Competitive Landscape - Operating in a competitive E&S market with over 75 rivals, Kinsale holds less than 2% market share but is expanding rapidly [4] - The company’s competitive advantage stems from a proprietary technology platform developed over seven years, enabling efficient processing of large volumes of low-premium submissions [4] Leadership and Governance - Leadership by founder and CEO Michael Kehoe and COO Brian Haney emphasizes disciplined underwriting and profitability-driven growth, supported by strong insider ownership [5] - Kinsale has established a fully integrated underwriting and claims process, contributing to its status as the most efficient and profitable pure-play insurer in the U.S. E&S market [5]

Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is compared against its property and casualty insurer peers, highlighting Kinsale as a rapidly growing specialty insurer [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Kinsale has demonstrated significant growth compared to its peers in the property and casualty insurance sector [1] - The focus is on identifying reasonably priced companies with steady long-term growth prospects, as well as small- and mid-cap companies with potential for exponential growth [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The author has extensive experience in corporate law and investment transactions, which informs their analysis of investment opportunities [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of education and understanding of financial principles for outperforming the market [1]

Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares have decreased by 17.1% over the past year, underperforming the industry growth of 6.8% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $9.07 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - Kinsale Capital shares are currently trading at a price-to-book value of 4.86X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.5X, indicating overvaluation [2] - Comparatively, American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) trades at a premium of 2.45, while Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) trade below the industry average at 1.5 and 1.1, respectively [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 17.8% year-over-year increase in Kinsale Capital's earnings per share for 2025, with revenues expected to reach $1.86 billion, reflecting a 17.1% improvement [4] - For 2026, earnings per share and revenues are estimated to grow by 9.2% and 7.8%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [4] - Earnings have grown by 44.3% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 21.6%, with a long-term growth rate expected at 14.8% compared to the industry average of 7.3% [5] Earnings Performance - Kinsale Capital has consistently exceeded earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.35% [6] Return Metrics - The company boasts a return on equity (ROE) of 25.6%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds [10] - Kinsale Capital's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 22.4%, compared to the industry's 6.1%, reflecting strong capital efficiency [11] Analyst Sentiment - Among analysts covering Kinsale Capital, eight out of nine have raised their 2025 earnings estimates, while five have lowered their 2026 estimates, resulting in a 2.6% increase in the 2025 consensus estimate and a 0.2% decrease for 2026 [12] Price Target - The average price target for Kinsale Capital, based on short-term estimates from nine analysts, is $479.89 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 23% from the last closing price [13] Market Positioning - Kinsale Capital is well-positioned in the excess and surplus (E&S) market, benefiting from high retention rates and improved underwriting results compared to the broader property and casualty (P&C) industry [14] - The company targets small and medium-sized accounts, aiming for low double-digit rate increases across its business [15] Operational Efficiency - Kinsale Capital leverages proprietary technology to enhance its expense ratio and operational efficiency, maintaining a free cash flow conversion rate of over 85% [16][18] - The company has a strong dividend history, with a seven-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.1% from 2017 to 2024, and has authorized a $100 million share repurchase program [20] Investment Appeal - Kinsale Capital's combination of high growth potential and low combined ratio positions it as an attractive investment option, despite its current overvaluation [21]

Group 1: Rubrik - Rubrik achieved a sales growth of 55% in the last quarter and is currently trading at 79 times free cash flow (FCF) [1] - The company is recognized as the No. 1 player in its niche, holding a "leader" designation from Gartner and has an impressive +80 Net Promoter Score, ranking it among the top 1% of enterprise software companies [1] Group 2: Rocket Lab - Rocket Lab's sales grew by 48% in the last quarter, and its next-generation Neutron rocket is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The company holds a market cap of approximately $25 billion and is positioned as the No. 2 player in a space industry projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros reported a 25% sales growth in the last quarter, but its stock has dropped by 33% from its all-time high due to decelerating revenue growth [7] - The company aims to expand to 2,029 total shops by 2029, doubling its current total, and is now funding store construction through its own cash flow [8] Group 4: Halozyme Therapeutics - Halozyme Therapeutics holds a near monopoly on subcutaneous drug deliveries, significantly reducing the time required for drug administration [9] - The company has increased sales by 38% annually over the last decade and is trading at 15 times FCF, indicating strong growth potential [10] Group 5: Global-e Online - Global-e Online facilitates international sales for brands, with its technology being utilized by major e-commerce platforms like Shopify [11] - Despite a 28% sales growth in the last quarter and a 40% drop in share price from its peak, the company remains a dominant player in its niche, trading at 42 times FCF [12] Group 6: Wingstop - Wingstop has experienced a decline in same-store sales for two consecutive quarters, leading to a 37% drop in its stock price [13] - Management believes the company can quadruple its store count, indicating potential for future growth despite recent challenges [15] Group 7: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen by 69%, but it still managed a 26% sales growth over the past year [16] - The company is trading at 25 times forward earnings, with improving adoption rates for its new AI-powered platform, Kokai [17] Group 8: Kinsale Capital - Kinsale Capital specializes in excess and surplus insurance lines, achieving 45% annualized net income growth over the last decade [18] - The company is currently trading at its lowest-ever P/E ratio of 19, making it an attractive investment opportunity [20] Group 9: SPS Commerce - SPS Commerce has delivered 99 consecutive quarters of sales growth but has guided for only 8% growth in 2026, resulting in a 59% drop in stock price [21] - The company trades at 21 times free cash flow, significantly below its five-year average, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [22] Group 10: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has shown a 39% sales increase in its last quarter and has become a core player in the Latin American economy with 77 million active e-commerce buyers [23] - The company is trading at 52 times forward earnings, which is considered reasonable given its strong growth trajectory [24]

Core Viewpoint - Investors interested in Property and Casualty insurance stocks may find Axis Capital (AXS) to be a more attractive option compared to Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) due to its undervaluation based on various financial metrics [1]. Valuation Metrics - AXS has a forward P/E ratio of 8.04, significantly lower than KNSL's forward P/E of 20.98, indicating that AXS may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for AXS is 1.07, while KNSL's PEG ratio stands at 1.42, suggesting AXS offers better value relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - AXS has a P/B ratio of 1.35 compared to KNSL's P/B of 4.95, further supporting the notion that AXS is undervalued [6]. Earnings Outlook - AXS is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which is a positive indicator in the Zacks Rank model, suggesting it may be a superior value option at this time [7].

Group 1: Turtle Creek Asset Management Overview - Turtle Creek Asset Management released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter, indicating a compelling portfolio opportunity in a highly valued market environment [1] - The net asset value of the Turtle Creek Equity Fund increased by 0.4% in Q3 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P MidCap 400 index's 7.7% increase and the S&P/TSX Completion index's 16.3% gain [1] - Performance of other funds included a 1.4% increase in Turtle Creek Synthetic PE Fund, a 1.0% decrease in Turtle Creek United States Equity Fund, and a 7.8% increase in Turtle Creek Canadian Equity Fund during the same period [1] Group 2: Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Analysis - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) is highlighted as a specialty insurance company with a 2% market share in the U.S. excess and surplus market, growing rapidly despite being smaller than industry leader Lloyds of London [3] - The company has a strong underwriting approach and a technology-driven model that provides a sustainable cost advantage over competitors [3] - Kinsale Capital Group's stock experienced a one-month return of -9.48% and a 52-week loss of 16.22%, closing at $396.94 per share with a market capitalization of $9.234 billion on November 12, 2025 [2] Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - Kinsale Capital Group is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 31 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 33 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging Kinsale's potential, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4] - Jim Cramer expressed a positive sentiment towards Kinsale Capital Group, stating it is a "Very Good Group, Very Good Stock" [4]

Core Insights - Pelican Bay Capital Management's Concentrated Value Strategy achieved a return of 7.8% in Q3 2025, outperforming the Russell 1000 Value Index which returned 5.3% during the same period [1] - Year-to-date, the fund's return stands at 11.2%, slightly below the index's return of 11.6% [1] Company Analysis: Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. experienced a one-month return of -17.48% and a 52-week decline of 12.31%, with its stock closing at $393.10 and a market capitalization of $9.145 billion on November 6, 2025 [2] - The decline in Kinsale Capital Group's shares by 10% in Q3 2025 was attributed to challenges in the Excess and Surplus (E&S) insurance market, characterized by increased competition and lower insurance premiums [3] - The rapid policy growth that Kinsale Capital Group has experienced over the past four years is expected to slow down in the upcoming quarters due to these market challenges [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. was held by 31 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, a decrease from 33 in the previous quarter, indicating a slight decline in hedge fund interest [4] - Despite acknowledging Kinsale Capital Group's potential, there is a belief that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a shift in investment strategies among local investors, moving towards a more diversified portfolio [1] - The entry into the US market has provided additional avenues for investment, particularly in banks, hotels, and logistics companies, reflecting a broader trend of globalization in investment strategies [1] Investment Strategies - Initial investments were focused on blue-chip companies, but there has been a diversification into various industries and market cap sizes, indicating a more balanced investment approach [1] - The strategy includes holding certain stocks for retirement while engaging in trading for profit, showcasing a dual approach to investment [1] - The use of platforms like Seeking Alpha has facilitated knowledge sharing and comparative analysis between different markets, enhancing investment decision-making [1]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a shift in investment strategies among local investors, moving towards a more diversified portfolio [1] - The trend of investing in blue-chip companies has evolved, with investors now holding a mix of stocks for retirement and trading profits, reflecting a more strategic approach to investment [1] Industry Focus - The banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotel sectors are identified as key areas of investment interest, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets [1] - The entry into the US market has been facilitated by platforms like Seeking Alpha, which provide valuable analyses for comparison with local markets [1] - The logistics and shipping industries are highlighted as sectors with significant investment potential, aligning with global trends in e-commerce and supply chain management [1]

Core Insights - DHL Group anticipates a typical increase in e-commerce deliveries during the fourth quarter, aligning with the year-end peak season [1] Company Summary - DHL Group is preparing for the expected surge in e-commerce deliveries as the year-end peak season approaches [1]