Company Performance - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) closed at $391.12, reflecting a -1.14% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.74% [1] - Over the past month, KNSL shares have increased by 5.28%, while the Finance sector gained 2.1% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.79% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. to report earnings of $5.24 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 13.42% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $471.37 million, which represents a 14.38% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $18.9 per share and revenue of $1.86 billion, reflecting changes of +17.68% and +17.25% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. are important as they often reflect shifting business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS projection having moved 0.09% higher in the past 30 days [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 20.93, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.51 [7] PEG Ratio - KNSL has a PEG ratio of 1.42, which is lower than the average PEG ratio of 1.67 for the Insurance - Property and Casualty industry [8] Industry Overview - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 45, placing it in the top 19% of over 250 industries [9]

Group 1 - The Conservative Income Portfolio focuses on value stocks with high margins of safety and utilizes well-priced options to reduce volatility [1] - The Enhanced Equity Income Solutions Portfolio aims to generate yields of 7-9% while minimizing volatility [1] - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. specializes in property and casualty insurance for hard-to-place small business and personal lines risks [2] Group 2 - Trapping Value is a team with over 40 years of combined experience in generating options income and capital preservation [2] - The Conservative Income Portfolio is managed in partnership with Preferred Stock Trader, featuring two income-generating portfolios and a bond ladder [2] - The Covered Calls Portfolio is designed for lower volatility income investing with a focus on capital preservation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Investors interested in Property and Casualty insurance stocks may find Axis Capital (AXS) to be a more attractive option compared to Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) due to its better valuation metrics and improving earnings outlook [1]. Valuation Metrics - Axis Capital has a forward P/E ratio of 8.62, significantly lower than Kinsale Capital's forward P/E of 21.00 [5]. - The PEG ratio for AXS is 1.06, while KNSL has a PEG ratio of 1.42, indicating AXS may offer better value relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - AXS has a P/B ratio of 1.45 compared to KNSL's P/B of 4.95, further suggesting that AXS is undervalued [6]. Earnings Outlook - AXS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while KNSL has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The improving earnings outlook for AXS makes it a standout option in the Zacks Rank model [7]. Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, AXS holds a Value grade of B, whereas KNSL has a Value grade of C, reinforcing AXS's position as the superior value option [6].

Core Insights - A group of five growth stocks is highlighted as potential multibaggers for long-term investors, despite recent declines of 22% to 55% from their 52-week highs [1][2] Group 1: Rocket Lab USA - Rocket Lab USA has seen its sales increase nearly tenfold since its IPO in 2021, positioning it as the No. 3 player in the launch services industry [4][5] - The company is expected to launch its Neutron rocket in Q1 next year, which could enhance its competitive stance against larger peers like SpaceX [4] - The space industry is projected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035, indicating significant growth potential for Rocket Lab, which has a current market cap of $28 billion [7] - Rocket Lab's gross margin stands at 28.93%, and shares are currently 20% below their high, making it an attractive investment opportunity [9] Group 2: Kinsale Capital - Kinsale Capital Group has delivered a 39% total return since its 2016 IPO, with a combined ratio of 77%, outperforming peers with an average of 92% [10][11] - The company focuses on small, hard-to-assess risks, which has allowed it to carve out a profitable niche, although its revenue growth slowed to 19% in the latest quarter due to increased pricing competition [12] - Kinsale's stock is down 24% due to this growth slowdown, presenting a potential buying opportunity [13] Group 3: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has transformed from $85 million in sales at its 2007 IPO to $26 billion today, making it a 70-bagger [14] - The company operates in a market where online buying penetration in Latin America is only half that of the U.S., indicating further growth potential [15] - MercadoLibre's logistics network supports its e-commerce and fintech operations, and the stock has dipped 23% from its July 2025 highs, making it a favorable buy [16] Group 4: SPS Commerce - SPS Commerce has delivered 18% annualized returns since 2010, with sales growing 26 times in value during that period [17] - The company has achieved 99 consecutive quarters of positive sales growth, although its growth rate has decelerated, leading to a 55% drop in stock price over the last year [18] Group 5: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros has seen a 14% annual stock price increase since 2021 and aims to expand from 1,089 locations to 2,029 by 2029 [20] - The company plans to buy back shares using at least half of its free cash flow, marking a shift from previous reliance on issuing new shares [21][22] - Despite trading at 40 times cash from operations, the growth potential could make it a multibagger if expansion goals are met [23]

Core Thesis - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is positioned as a strong player in the U.S. Excess and Surplus (E&S) insurance market, leveraging its regulatory flexibility and proprietary technology to achieve superior profitability and efficiency [1][2][6] Company Overview - Kinsale Capital Group is a specialty insurer focused exclusively on the U.S. E&S market, which is valued at $115 billion, catering to high-risk businesses that are hard to insure [2] - The company does not have an investment or ventures arm, differentiating itself from competitors like Markel [2] Business Model and Strategy - Kinsale charges higher premiums and manages exclusions effectively, maintaining an exceptional loss ratio with a modest policy retention rate of around 60% [3] - The company’s portfolio includes unconventional risks such as firearm retailers, medical malpractice, disaster-exposed properties, and cybersecurity liabilities [3] Competitive Landscape - Operating in a competitive E&S market with over 75 rivals, Kinsale holds less than 2% market share but is expanding rapidly [4] - The company’s competitive advantage stems from a proprietary technology platform developed over seven years, enabling efficient processing of large volumes of low-premium submissions [4] Leadership and Governance - Leadership by founder and CEO Michael Kehoe and COO Brian Haney emphasizes disciplined underwriting and profitability-driven growth, supported by strong insider ownership [5] - Kinsale has established a fully integrated underwriting and claims process, contributing to its status as the most efficient and profitable pure-play insurer in the U.S. E&S market [5]

In my article covering The Progressive Corporation ( PGR ), where I compared it against its property & casualty insurer peers, Kinsale stood out as a specialty insurer that has been growing more rapidlyI am a corporate lawyer with an MBA and a long-standing interest in value investing. After spending 7 years practicing at several prestigious Wall Street and Silicon Valley law firms as a corporate transactional lawyer, I founded and have been operating my own boutique law firm for the last 10 years, focusing ...

Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares have decreased by 17.1% over the past year, underperforming the industry growth of 6.8% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $9.07 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - Kinsale Capital shares are currently trading at a price-to-book value of 4.86X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.5X, indicating overvaluation [2] - Comparatively, American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) trades at a premium of 2.45, while Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) trade below the industry average at 1.5 and 1.1, respectively [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 17.8% year-over-year increase in Kinsale Capital's earnings per share for 2025, with revenues expected to reach $1.86 billion, reflecting a 17.1% improvement [4] - For 2026, earnings per share and revenues are estimated to grow by 9.2% and 7.8%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [4] - Earnings have grown by 44.3% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 21.6%, with a long-term growth rate expected at 14.8% compared to the industry average of 7.3% [5] Earnings Performance - Kinsale Capital has consistently exceeded earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.35% [6] Return Metrics - The company boasts a return on equity (ROE) of 25.6%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds [10] - Kinsale Capital's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 22.4%, compared to the industry's 6.1%, reflecting strong capital efficiency [11] Analyst Sentiment - Among analysts covering Kinsale Capital, eight out of nine have raised their 2025 earnings estimates, while five have lowered their 2026 estimates, resulting in a 2.6% increase in the 2025 consensus estimate and a 0.2% decrease for 2026 [12] Price Target - The average price target for Kinsale Capital, based on short-term estimates from nine analysts, is $479.89 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 23% from the last closing price [13] Market Positioning - Kinsale Capital is well-positioned in the excess and surplus (E&S) market, benefiting from high retention rates and improved underwriting results compared to the broader property and casualty (P&C) industry [14] - The company targets small and medium-sized accounts, aiming for low double-digit rate increases across its business [15] Operational Efficiency - Kinsale Capital leverages proprietary technology to enhance its expense ratio and operational efficiency, maintaining a free cash flow conversion rate of over 85% [16][18] - The company has a strong dividend history, with a seven-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.1% from 2017 to 2024, and has authorized a $100 million share repurchase program [20] Investment Appeal - Kinsale Capital's combination of high growth potential and low combined ratio positions it as an attractive investment option, despite its current overvaluation [21]

Group 1: Rubrik - Rubrik achieved a sales growth of 55% in the last quarter and is currently trading at 79 times free cash flow (FCF) [1] - The company is recognized as the No. 1 player in its niche, holding a "leader" designation from Gartner and has an impressive +80 Net Promoter Score, ranking it among the top 1% of enterprise software companies [1] Group 2: Rocket Lab - Rocket Lab's sales grew by 48% in the last quarter, and its next-generation Neutron rocket is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The company holds a market cap of approximately $25 billion and is positioned as the No. 2 player in a space industry projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros reported a 25% sales growth in the last quarter, but its stock has dropped by 33% from its all-time high due to decelerating revenue growth [7] - The company aims to expand to 2,029 total shops by 2029, doubling its current total, and is now funding store construction through its own cash flow [8] Group 4: Halozyme Therapeutics - Halozyme Therapeutics holds a near monopoly on subcutaneous drug deliveries, significantly reducing the time required for drug administration [9] - The company has increased sales by 38% annually over the last decade and is trading at 15 times FCF, indicating strong growth potential [10] Group 5: Global-e Online - Global-e Online facilitates international sales for brands, with its technology being utilized by major e-commerce platforms like Shopify [11] - Despite a 28% sales growth in the last quarter and a 40% drop in share price from its peak, the company remains a dominant player in its niche, trading at 42 times FCF [12] Group 6: Wingstop - Wingstop has experienced a decline in same-store sales for two consecutive quarters, leading to a 37% drop in its stock price [13] - Management believes the company can quadruple its store count, indicating potential for future growth despite recent challenges [15] Group 7: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen by 69%, but it still managed a 26% sales growth over the past year [16] - The company is trading at 25 times forward earnings, with improving adoption rates for its new AI-powered platform, Kokai [17] Group 8: Kinsale Capital - Kinsale Capital specializes in excess and surplus insurance lines, achieving 45% annualized net income growth over the last decade [18] - The company is currently trading at its lowest-ever P/E ratio of 19, making it an attractive investment opportunity [20] Group 9: SPS Commerce - SPS Commerce has delivered 99 consecutive quarters of sales growth but has guided for only 8% growth in 2026, resulting in a 59% drop in stock price [21] - The company trades at 21 times free cash flow, significantly below its five-year average, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [22] Group 10: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has shown a 39% sales increase in its last quarter and has become a core player in the Latin American economy with 77 million active e-commerce buyers [23] - The company is trading at 52 times forward earnings, which is considered reasonable given its strong growth trajectory [24]

Core Viewpoint - Investors interested in Property and Casualty insurance stocks may find Axis Capital (AXS) to be a more attractive option compared to Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) due to its undervaluation based on various financial metrics [1]. Valuation Metrics - AXS has a forward P/E ratio of 8.04, significantly lower than KNSL's forward P/E of 20.98, indicating that AXS may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for AXS is 1.07, while KNSL's PEG ratio stands at 1.42, suggesting AXS offers better value relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - AXS has a P/B ratio of 1.35 compared to KNSL's P/B of 4.95, further supporting the notion that AXS is undervalued [6]. Earnings Outlook - AXS is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which is a positive indicator in the Zacks Rank model, suggesting it may be a superior value option at this time [7].

Group 1: Turtle Creek Asset Management Overview - Turtle Creek Asset Management released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter, indicating a compelling portfolio opportunity in a highly valued market environment [1] - The net asset value of the Turtle Creek Equity Fund increased by 0.4% in Q3 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P MidCap 400 index's 7.7% increase and the S&P/TSX Completion index's 16.3% gain [1] - Performance of other funds included a 1.4% increase in Turtle Creek Synthetic PE Fund, a 1.0% decrease in Turtle Creek United States Equity Fund, and a 7.8% increase in Turtle Creek Canadian Equity Fund during the same period [1] Group 2: Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Analysis - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) is highlighted as a specialty insurance company with a 2% market share in the U.S. excess and surplus market, growing rapidly despite being smaller than industry leader Lloyds of London [3] - The company has a strong underwriting approach and a technology-driven model that provides a sustainable cost advantage over competitors [3] - Kinsale Capital Group's stock experienced a one-month return of -9.48% and a 52-week loss of 16.22%, closing at $396.94 per share with a market capitalization of $9.234 billion on November 12, 2025 [2] Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - Kinsale Capital Group is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 31 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 33 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging Kinsale's potential, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4] - Jim Cramer expressed a positive sentiment towards Kinsale Capital Group, stating it is a "Very Good Group, Very Good Stock" [4]