Group 1 - Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target on Lumentum to $225 from $150 while maintaining a Buy rating, reaffirming the stock as its top idea for 2025 [1] - The new valuation is based on 35x consensus FY27 EPS, supported by strong demand for 200G EML lasers used in 1.6T and certain 800G data center transceivers, as well as narrow linewidth tunable lasers used in telecom and coherent DCI modules [1] Group 2 - Mid-term demand drivers such as optical circuit switches and ultra-high-power lasers for co-packaged optics are building nine-figure order books and already shipping in smaller volumes, further strengthening the company's outlook [2]

Group 1 - Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) has recently experienced a surge in stock price after years of stagnation, prompting discussions on whether to hold or sell the stock [1] - The company produces optical and photonic products, including chips, components, and lasers, which are essential for cloud data centers, AI infrastructure, and various manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors, solar cells, and electric vehicle batteries [2] - Invesco Small Cap Value Fund highlighted that Lumentum reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings for its recent quarter, along with record orders for its data communications laser chips used in data center applications [2] Group 2 - Despite the positive outlook for Lumentum, some analysts believe that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [2]

Group 1 - Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) experienced a decline of 4.42% on Wednesday, closing at $163.34, amid overall pessimism in the semiconductor industry [1] - The Chinese government announced investigations into US semiconductor companies for alleged dumping practices, which reportedly led to margins exceeding 300% [2] - Although the probe targets specific chip types and does not directly affect Lumentum, portfolio rebalancing was conducted to mitigate risks from ongoing US-China trade tensions [3] Group 2 - Lumentum recently completed a $1.1 billion offering of senior convertible notes due in 2032, with an annual interest rate of 0.375%, payable semi-annually starting March 15, 2026 [4] - There is a belief that while Lumentum has potential as an investment, certain AI stocks may offer greater returns with limited downside risk [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [5]. Core Insights - The communication industry experienced steady revenue growth and accelerated profitability in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1,785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q2 2025, the industry continued to show robust growth, with revenue of 942.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.68 billion yuan, up 12.33% year-on-year [11]. - Key sectors such as optical modules, communication PCBs, network equipment manufacturers, and IoT modules demonstrated strong performance, ranking among the top five in revenue and net profit growth rates [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. H1 2025 Performance Overview - The communication industry achieved total revenue of 1,785 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. 2. AI Industry Chain Investment - Overseas cloud vendors are expected to maintain optimistic growth in capital expenditures, with a total of 95 billion USD in Q2 2025, marking an increase of 82.96% year-on-year [22]. - Major companies like Apple and Meta are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a robust outlook for the AI industry chain [22][24]. 3. Sector Performance Changes - The optical module and device sector reported revenue of 479.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 64.88%, and net profit of 108.76 billion yuan, up 111.99% year-on-year [31]. - The communication PCB sector achieved revenue of 572.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.66%, and net profit of 80.58 billion yuan, up 80.79% year-on-year [36]. - The network equipment sector generated revenue of 5,071.11 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, and net profit of 191.84 billion yuan, up 19.57% year-on-year [40]. 4. Telecom Operators' Performance - The basic telecom operators' sector reported revenue of 10,133.93 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, with net profit of 1,136.01 billion yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [54]. - China Mobile's total connections reached 3.815 billion, with a net increase of 145 million, and its digital transformation revenue grew by 6.6% year-on-year [55].

Core Insights - UBS identifies Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) as a critical path for AI infrastructure upgrades, driven by rising power consumption in AI data centers and limitations of copper cabling [1][4] Group 1: CPO Technology Trends - CPO technology is becoming increasingly clear in 2023, with industry experts predicting significant power optimization milestones by 2028 [1] - Broadcom's Tzu Hao Chow states that the energy consumption of CPO is currently above 10 picojoules per bit (pJ/bit), but it is expected to drop below this threshold by mid-2028 and reach 5 pJ/bit by 2029, enabling large-scale deployment [2][3] Group 2: AI Data Center Power Consumption - Ayar Labs highlights the exponential growth in AI training tasks, predicting that Meta's new Hyperion data center will consume 2 GW by 2030 and 5 GW by 2035, which is equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Louisiana [4] - The company aims to keep the power consumption of a 576 GPU system under 100 kW, even when expanded to 2048 GPUs by 2029 [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Lumentum emphasizes its expertise in compound semiconductor materials and high-power lasers, which are essential for the next-generation 3.2T optical interfaces [5][7] - Lumentum's latest PAM4 modulation lasers and distributed feedback modulators are foundational for the upcoming optical interfaces, while their VCSEL lasers have demonstrated high reliability and low cost for short-distance interconnects [7]

Core Viewpoint - Lumentum Holdings Inc. is expected to benefit from advancements in photonics intensity and the adoption of 200G/lane and 400G/lane optical links [1] Company Summary - Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates in the photonics industry, focusing on optical networking solutions [1] - The company is positioned to leverage new technologies that enhance data transmission capabilities [1] Industry Summary - The photonics industry is experiencing growth driven by the demand for higher bandwidth solutions, particularly in optical links [1] - The transition to 200G and 400G optical links indicates a trend towards increased data capacity and efficiency in telecommunications [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment industry [15]. Core Insights - Major cloud vendors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta reported better-than-expected financial results, driven by strong demand for cloud services and advertising, with significant capital expenditure increases [4][7]. - AI applications are deeply penetrating various sectors, leading to accelerated investments in computing power and infrastructure [7][13]. - The overall trend indicates a robust growth trajectory for AI and computing power, with companies ramping up their capital expenditures to support this growth [13]. Summary by Sections Cloud Vendors: Strong Financial Performance and Demand - Google reported Q2 2025 revenues of $96.43 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of $28.20 billion, up 19.4% [24][26]. - Amazon achieved Q2 2025 revenues of $167.70 billion, a 13.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $18.16 billion, up 34.7% [34][36]. - Microsoft recorded Q4 FY25 revenues of $76.44 billion, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $27.23 billion, up 23.6% [43][45]. - Meta's Q2 2025 revenues reached $47.52 billion, a 21.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $18.34 billion, up 36.2% [51][54]. CPU/GPU: Product Iteration and Ecosystem Upgrade - AMD's Q2 2025 revenues were $7.69 billion, a 31.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $0.87 billion, up 229.1% [60][62]. - The client and gaming segments saw record growth, while the data center business faced challenges due to export restrictions [62]. Switches: High-End Volume and Stable Profitability - Arista's revenue growth was driven by its AI Center strategy, with significant increases in AI network revenue [9]. - Celestica's communication market growth was primarily driven by high-performance switches, with revenue and performance outlooks adjusted upwards [9]. Optical Communication & Fiber Optics: Strong Shipments and Scale-Up Acceleration - Lumentum's optical module shipments surged, and coherent optical communication business saw rapid growth [10]. - Corning's optical communication business thrived, driven by enterprise networks, with expectations for significant future growth from scale-up scenarios [10]. Cables: Strong Orders and Active Capacity Expansion - Amphenol reported strong AI-related orders and exceeded expectations in IT data communication business growth [11]. Cooling: High Demand and Accelerated Liquid Cooling Adoption - Vertiv's revenue and profits saw significant growth, with a strong order backlog and upward guidance for the year [12]. Investment Recommendations: Accelerating Business Flywheel and Computing Power - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including optical modules, liquid cooling, fiber optics, and AI applications, highlighting their potential for growth [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology allows for routing and forwarding of optical signals without optical-electrical conversion, offering ultra-high transmission speeds, low latency, low power consumption, and high stability compared to traditional switches. This technology is expected to significantly enhance the value of the industry chain in the long term [2][10]. - Google has integrated OCS technology into its TPU v4 generation, which is now in large-scale deployment. Major overseas optical communication leaders are actively promoting OCS products, with significant revenue contributions expected by 2026 [2][10]. Summary by Sections OCS Technology Overview - OCS operates on the principle of direct optical signal switching, eliminating the need for optical-electrical conversion, thus providing advantages such as ultra-high transmission speed and low power consumption. It is seen as a potential long-term replacement for electrical switches [10]. - LightCounting predicts that OCS shipments will experience explosive growth, reaching 10,000 units in 2023 and exceeding 50,000 units by 2029 [10]. Competitive Landscape - There are three main approaches to OCS technology: MEMS, Digital Liquid Crystal (DLC), and Direct Laser Beam Steering (DLBS). Google and Lumentum primarily use the MEMS approach, while Coherent employs the non-mechanical DLC method [10]. - The report highlights that Lumentum and Coherent have begun generating revenue from their OCS businesses, with expectations for continued revenue growth in upcoming quarters [4][10]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that OCS technology will replace electrical switches in the spine layer first, with potential penetration into the leaf/ToR layer in the future. The market for OCS is projected to expand significantly, with an estimated market space of around $2 billion [10]. - Key players to watch include optical system manufacturers with first-mover advantages, as well as manufacturers of passive optical components and laser sources [10].

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 10-K (Mark One) ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15 (d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended June 28, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number 001-36861 Lumentum Holdings Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 47-3108385 (State or othe ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical communication sector, focusing on two companies: Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) [1][2]. Key Points from Lumentum (LITE) - **Revenue Growth**: LITE reported a 55.9% year-over-year increase in revenue to USD 480.7 million for 4QFY25, with a turnaround to a GAAP net income of USD 213.3 million from a net loss of USD 252.5 million a year prior [2][4]. - **Future Guidance**: Management provided guidance for 1QFY26E revenue between USD 510 million and USD 540 million, indicating a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6% to 12% and a year-over-year growth of 51% to 60% [2][4]. - **Product Demand**: Strong demand from hyperscale cloud customers is driving growth, particularly in the Cloud and Networking segment, which saw a 67% year-over-year increase [2][4]. - **EML Chip Shipments**: Achieved an all-time high in EML chip shipments, nearly doubling revenue compared to the previous year. Transitioning from 3-inch to 4-inch wafers to increase capacity, with potential future moves to 6-inch wafers [4]. - **Major Orders**: Received a substantial order for 200G EML chips, expected to be fulfilled in the December quarter, with 2026 anticipated as a breakout year for 100G and 200G laser chip shipments [4]. - **OCS Expansion**: Expanding Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) capacity in Thailand, with leadership in optical performance expected to capture demand ahead of competitors [5]. Key Points from Coherent (COHR) - **Revenue Performance**: COHR recorded a 16.4% year-over-year revenue growth in 4QFY25, reaching USD 942 million in the data center and communications segment, which contributed 62% of total revenue [6][7]. - **Guidance Shortfall**: Management's guidance for 1QFY26 revenue between USD 1.46 billion and USD 1.60 billion indicates an 8% to 18.6% year-over-year growth, but this fell short of market expectations [6][7]. - **Transceiver Development**: The company began shipments of its 1.6T transceiver in 4QFY25, with expectations for meaningful revenue contributions in FY26. Development of 3.2T transceiver products is ongoing [7]. - **Divestiture Strategy**: The divestiture of the Aerospace & Defense business for USD 400 million is a strategic move to streamline COHR's portfolio, expected to close in 1QFY26 [7]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The strong demand for AI infrastructure from global hyperscale AI and cloud players is expected to support sequential growth for optical transceiver players in China [1]. - **Supply Chain Considerations**: Continued supply tightness of key components, particularly optical chips, may benefit optical chip manufacturers [1]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategic outlook of Lumentum and Coherent within the optical communication industry.