[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月11日 [table_invest] 超配 周 报 机 械 设 备 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -11% 3% 17% 32% 46% 60% 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-11 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.挖掘机1月内外销大增，龙头公司 业绩预增——机械设备行业简评 [Table_NewTitle 海外财报回顾： ] AI领域资本支出有望加 码，相关设备订单表现向好 ——机械设备行业周报（20260202-20260208） [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1.1. 特灵科技财报回顾：商用 HVAC 订单饱满 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 江森自控：美洲订单表现强劲 | 5 | | 1.3. 谷歌：云业务 ...

我们1月6日开始独家挖掘，近期获得市场逐步认可上涨接近40%，但科瑞技术作为全市场唯二光耦合设备供应 商，估值与市值较罗博特科仍有较大空间，公司26年3.5亿利润，对应当前市值仅36倍PE，估值水平仍低，逢低继 续关注，有同学关心科瑞技术和罗博特科在光模块设备的异同，昨天我们已发过文件整理，核心有3点： 1、二者供应的设备种类类似，包括耦合、共晶、光纤打磨、AOI检测等，价值量占到光模块整线投资的60%以 上。 2、目前罗博特科在CPO和OCS等新技术设备的进度可能领先于科瑞，Ficontech作为老牌光模块设备厂商，布局新 技术更早，但是科瑞与HW在光模块领域的合作接近10年，积累了大量的技术，随着光模块的放量，科瑞凭借过去 十年的经验迅速进入海外龙头客户如Lumentum及Finisar，现在是800G和1.6T设备放量初期。 科瑞技术看好逻辑再更新： 昨晚美股光通信概念股延续强势，光模块巨头Lumentum再创历史新高，得益于OCS和CPO的强劲需求，Lumentum 不仅交出了一份营收利润双超预期的成绩单，Q2营收同比暴增65%，AI业务订单积压超4亿美元，更给出了高达 85%同比增长的下季度指引，光 ...

Key Takeaways LITE shares surged 24% after fiscal Q2 results delivered 65.5% revenue growth and an 18.7% EPS beat.The Zacks Consensus Estimate pegs LITE's fiscal Q3 EPS at $2.24, up 47.4% in the past 30 days.LITE expects fiscal Q3 revenues of $780-$830M, with operating margin projected to expand further to 30-31%.Lumentum Holdings (LITE) shares have surged 24% following the release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 4, 2026. The uptick can be attributed to a remarkable 65.5% top-line growth, ...

Core Insights - By 2026, global computing infrastructure will enter a "connection is king" era, driven by the limitations of traditional copper cables and the necessity for optical solutions to meet the demands of AI clusters [3][5][6] - Companies like LITE, COHR, and AAOI are leveraging vertical integration and strategic focus to transition from component pricing to system premium, aiming to eliminate energy consumption and latency [3][6][20] - Unlike the supply bubble of 2000, the 2026 infrastructure is driven by demand, with a shift in investment logic focusing on connection efficiency rather than raw computing power [3][28] Group 1: Physical Limits and Optical Solutions - The physical limitations of copper cables become apparent as signal rates reach 1.6T, leading to significant energy loss and heat accumulation in large AI clusters [9][10] - Optical technology is no longer an option but a necessity, with AI architects prioritizing connection density over raw computing power [11][12] - The share of connection components in total capital expenditure for data centers has surged from 15% to over 30% in three years [12] Group 2: Key Technologies and Innovations - Silicon photonics has crossed the 50% market share threshold in optical transceivers, becoming a critical weapon for cost reduction and production efficiency [14][15] - CPO technology aims to reduce energy demands by integrating optical engines directly with GPU or switch chips, potentially lowering energy needs by 50%-65% [16][17] - LPO technology offers a transitional solution for companies seeking cost-effective options without immediately switching to expensive CPO systems [18][19] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - LITE has transformed from a component supplier to a system provider, with 60% of its revenue linked to AI infrastructure and a revenue growth rate of 65% [23] - COHR is focusing on dual development in AI communication and power semiconductors, having divested non-core assets to concentrate on AI data centers [24] - AAOI, benefiting from deep ties with Microsoft and a flexible LPO approach, is positioned as a strong competitor in the mid-market segment [25] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics differ fundamentally from the 2000 bubble, as the 2026 scenario is characterized by demand-driven infrastructure rather than supply chasing demand [28] - Investment focus is shifting from who has the strongest computing power to who can connect the most computing power with the least energy consumption [30]

"谷歌TPU AI算力链"的最核心参与者，同时也是"英伟达AI GPU系AI算力链"不可或缺光模块组件供应商的Lumentum(LITE.US)自从公布强劲 季度业绩与未来展望之后，看涨该公司股价强劲延续2025年牛市轨迹的金融机构可谓越来越多。 Lumentum全年股价涨幅高达340%——乃全 球股市毋庸置疑的AI算力主题"超级大牛股"，今年以来股价已经涨超56%。 这家总部位于美国的光模块技术领军者，堪称是"谷歌TPU vs 英伟达GPU"这场可能持续多年交锋的"最强受益主题之一"，两者强强抗衡或者 某一方进入绝对领先优势，对于光模块主题而言都是长期利好。 这家总部位于美国的光模块技术领军者，堪称是"谷歌TPU vs 英伟达GPU"这场可能持续多年交锋的"最强受益主题之一"。 Lumentum vs Coherent Lumentum 更像是光通信关键部件的制造者(激光器、光器件供应商)，它也出货一些光模块产品和子系统， 但其核心技术优势在于能独家构建 最基础光源与高速器件平台，这些组件被大量集成进大型AI数据中心各种光模块和光通信系统中。 来自GF Securities的资深分析师Jeff Pu在最新发 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American CSP (Cloud Service Provider) capital expenditure, which is experiencing strong growth. The report emphasizes the importance of the CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) and fiber optic industries [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Acceleration of CPO Development** - Lumentum has announced that it has secured several hundred million dollars in orders related to CPO. - Expected revenue from CPO is projected to be approximately $50 million in Q4 2026, with a significant surge anticipated in the first half of 2027. - The report suggests paying attention to the CPO supply chain, including components such as optical engines, FAU, laser ELS, MPO, shuffle boxes, and polarization-maintaining fibers. - Relevant companies in this space include Tianfu Communication, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photonics, Taicheng Light, Changfei Fiber, Changying Tong, and Robotek [1][2]. 2. **Fiber Optic Industry Transition** - The fiber optic cable industry has shifted from recovery to a phase characterized by "tight supply and simultaneous increase in volume and price." - As a capital-intensive industry, it is expected that new capacity will be difficult to add in the short term, leading to continued price increases. - Companies with optical fiber rod production capacity, such as Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Fenghuo Communication, are recommended for focus. - Additionally, companies with significant fiber optic capacity or specialized fiber optics, such as Tefa Information and Changying Tong, are also highlighted [2]. 3. **Strong Capital Expenditure Growth Among CSPs** - Four major North American CSPs are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure growth through Q4 2025, with optimistic guidance for future capital expenditures. - All companies expressed a consensus on the "strong demand for AI and tight supply of computing power." - The overseas AI computing power supply chain is viewed positively, while the domestic AI competition is ongoing, with issues such as traffic congestion during Alibaba's Qianwen event noted. - Attention is also recommended for the domestic computing power supply chain [2]. Additional Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment consideration: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Yuanjie Technology [3].

智通财经APP获悉，"谷歌TPU AI算力链"的最核心参与者，同时也是"英伟达AI GPU系AI算力链"不可 或缺光模块组件供应商的Lumentum(LITE.US)自从公布强劲季度业绩与未来展望之后，看涨该公司股价 强劲延续2025年牛市轨迹的金融机构可谓越来越多。Lumentum全年股价涨幅高达340%——乃全球股 市毋庸置疑的AI算力主题"超级大牛股"，今年以来股价已经涨超56%。 这家总部位于美国的光模块技术领军者，堪称是"谷歌TPU vs 英伟达GPU"这场可能持续多年交锋的"最 强受益主题之一"，两者强强抗衡或者某一方进入绝对领先优势，对于光模块主题而言都是长期利好。 来自GF Securities的资深分析师Jeff Pu在最新发布的研报中表示，Lumentum将能够从"AI芯片超级霸 主"英伟达(NVDA.US)加速使用共封装光学技术(即CPO)大趋势中持续受益。 据中心各种光模块和光通信系统中。 上周Lumentum公布的最新业绩报告显示，得益于光路交换机(OCS)和CPO领域的持续强劲需求， Lumentum不仅交出了一份营收与实际利润双超预期的成绩单，更给出了高达85%同比增长的下季度指 ...

随着人工智能和数据中心建设的加速推进，2025年光通信行业迎来了前所未有的高速增长。市场研究机 构Cignal AI报告显示，2025年光器件市场营收将创历史新高，数通板块的营收预计超过180亿美元，光 模块营收则达到近60亿美元。从2024年到2029年，数通光模块市场营收预计将以超过20%的复合年增长 率持续增长，2029年末将达到近290亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，光通讯概念股延续强势，Credo Technology(CRDO.US)涨近8%， Lumentum(LITE.US)涨6%再创历史新高，康宁(GLW.US)涨逾5%，Ciena(CIEN.US)涨4%。 ...

AI Stocks Turn Choppy. Hyperscaler Capex Explodes, Buybacks Fade. Software Hammered. | Investor's Business DailyBREAKING: [Hims & Hers Halts Wegovy Knockoff]---Volatility has increased for artificial intelligence stocks in early 2026 as investors scrutinize capital spending hikes by hyperscalers Amazon.com (AMZN), Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). While software stocks have been hammered, even Palantir Technologies (PLTR), optical networking plays Lumentum (LITE) and Ciena (CIEN) rem ...

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom continues, with Lumentum experiencing significant growth in revenue and profitability, driven by its essential role in AI and cloud computing systems [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lumentum's revenue increased by 65.5% year over year, reaching $665.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 [3]. - The company's adjusted net income surged by 380% to $143.9 million, translating to $1.67 per share, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $1.41 per share [5]. - The adjusted operating margin improved by 17 percentage points to 25.2% [5]. Group 2: Future Projections - For the fiscal third quarter, Lumentum anticipates revenue growth of approximately 85%, projecting between $780 million and $830 million [6]. - Management expects adjusted operating margins to be between 30% and 31%, with earnings per share forecasted at $2.15 to $2.35 [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Technology - Lumentum is recognized as a foundational engine of the AI revolution, with its technologies powering virtually every AI network through partnerships and as a critical component supplier [4]. - The company's optical and photonic technologies are essential for enabling faster and more efficient data transfer in AI and cloud computing systems [3].