Financial Performance - Operating revenues for Q3 2025 were $793.4 million, an increase of 9.5% compared to Q3 2024[3] - Net income for Q3 2025 reached $325.4 million, up 15.8% year-over-year[11] - Diluted EPS for Q3 2025 was $4.25, reflecting a 19.0% increase from Q3 2024[5] - Recurring subscription revenues grew by 7.9%, while asset-based fees increased by 17.1% in Q3 2025[5] - The Index segment reported operating revenues of $451.2 million, up 11.4% year-over-year[14] - The Analytics segment's operating revenues were $182.2 million, an increase of 5.7% compared to Q3 2024[18] - Sustainability and Climate segment operating revenues reached $90.1 million, up 7.7% year-over-year[20] - Total operating revenues for All Other – Private Assets were $70.0 million, an increase of 9.7% year-over-year, primarily driven by recurring subscriptions growth of 10.4%[22] - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2025 was $19.3 million, reflecting an 18.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.6%[22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $350,263, an increase of 11.5% compared to $314,148 in Q3 2024[72] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 2025 remained stable at 77.6% compared to the same quarter last year[72] - Organic operating revenue growth for Q3 2025 was 11.4%, with subscription revenue growing by 8.3% and asset-based fees increasing by 17.1%[84] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased $1,248.9 million worth of shares at an average price of $559.95 through October 27, 2025[5] - A new $3.0 billion share repurchase program was authorized by the MSCI Board on October 25, 2025[5] - Approximately $137.4 million in dividends were paid to shareholders in the third quarter of 2025, with a declared cash dividend of $1.80 per share for the fourth quarter[31] - The company authorized a new stock repurchase program for up to $3.0 billion of its common stock on October 25, 2025[30] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Free cash flow for the third quarter of 2025 was $423.3 million, up 7.4% year-over-year[29] - Capital expenditures (Capex) for the third quarter were $26.1 million, with net cash provided by operating activities increasing by 6.6% to $449.4 million[29] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $400.1 million as of September 30, 2025, while total debt outstanding was $5.6 billion, resulting in a total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.0x[25][26] - The company issued $1.25 billion of 5.25% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2035 on August 8, 2025, and amended its credit agreement to increase revolving loan commitments to $1.6 billion[27][28] Debt and Assets - Long-term debt increased to $5,507,771,000 as of September 30, 2025, up from $4,510,816,000 at December 31, 2024[69] - Total current assets decreased to $1,308,721,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $1,344,021,000 at December 31, 2024[69] - Deferred revenue decreased to $974,662,000 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,123,423,000 at December 31, 2024, indicating a reduction in future revenue obligations[69] Subscription Metrics - New recurring subscription sales increased by 16.5% to $29,443,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $25,271,000 in the same period of 2024[74] - Subscription cancellations decreased by 0.5% to $9,911,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $9,862,000 in the same period of 2024[74] - Net new recurring subscription sales rose by 26.8% to $19,532,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $15,409,000 in the same period of 2024[74] - The total retention rate improved to 94.7% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 94.2% in the same period of 2024[78] Guidance and Future Outlook - Full-Year 2025 guidance includes operating expenses of $1,415 to $1,445 million and free cash flow of $1,410 to $1,470 million[33] - The company anticipates free cash flow for the full year to be between $1,410,000,000 and $1,470,000,000[83] - The nine-month operating revenue growth for 2025 was 11.2%, with subscription revenue growth at 8.8%[85]

Core Insights - MSCI reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with record recurring sales in its Index and Analytics product lines, and a significant increase in asset-based fees driven by growth in assets under management (AUM) [3][4][6] Financial Highlights - Operating revenues reached $793.4 million, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, with organic operating revenue growth of 9.0% [4][6] - Operating income was $447.7 million, up 11.6%, resulting in an operating margin of 56.4% [4][9] - Net income increased by 15.8% to $325.4 million, with diluted EPS rising 19.0% to $4.25 [4][11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $494.4 million, reflecting a 9.7% increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 62.3% [4][12] Revenue Breakdown - Recurring subscription revenues grew by 7.9%, while asset-based fees surged by 17.1% [4][6] - The Index segment saw operating revenues of $451.2 million, an 11.4% increase, driven by higher asset-based fees and recurring subscription revenues [14][15] - The Analytics segment reported operating revenues of $182.2 million, up 5.7%, primarily from recurring subscriptions [17][18] - Sustainability and Climate segment revenues increased by 7.7% to $90.1 million, driven by growth in recurring subscriptions [20][21] Client Metrics - The total Run Rate as of September 30, 2025, was $3,186.5 million, up 10.1%, with a retention rate of 94.7% [7][4] - Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth was 7.4% [7] Capital Allocation - MSCI repurchased $1,248.9 million worth of shares, with an average repurchase price of $559.95 [4][28] - Approximately $137.4 million in dividends were paid to shareholders, with a cash dividend of $1.80 per share declared for Q4 2025 [4][29] Guidance - MSCI provided guidance for Full-Year 2025, projecting operating expenses between $1,415 million and $1,445 million, and net cash provided by operating activities between $1,540 million and $1,590 million [31][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market experienced its largest drop in over six months, primarily due to concerns regarding potential adjustments to the weight of Indonesian stocks in the MSCI index, as indicated by a report from MSCI [1][3]. Market Performance - On Monday, the Indonesian Composite Index fell significantly, with a maximum decline of 3.8%, while the MSCI Indonesia Index decreased by 2.52% [2]. - Major companies saw declines in their stock prices, including PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) down 14.99%, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) down 0.91%, and PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) down 12.12% [2]. MSCI Report Insights - The primary cause of the market drop was a consultation report from MSCI, which is considering changes to how the free float of Indonesian stocks is calculated [3]. - MSCI proposed using monthly shareholder registration data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) to determine the free float of listed companies, although this plan is not finalized and feedback from market participants is being sought until December 31, 2025 [4]. Data Utilization and Methodology - The consideration to use KSEI data stems from its detailed classification of shareholders into corporate and individual categories, although KSEI data will not be directly used for calculating free float [5]. - MSCI is also exploring a more comprehensive approach to assess Indonesian stocks, which may involve excluding scrip-based shares from the free float calculation [6]. Potential Adjustments and Impact - As an alternative, MSCI is considering excluding scrip shareholders and corporate shareholders from the free float calculation. If the index is adjusted according to the new rules, the expected adjustment range is between 5% and 13%, which may require fund managers tracking the MSCI Indonesia Index to adjust their portfolio holdings by approximately 5% to 13% [7]. - There are currently five ETFs tracking the MSCI Indonesia Index, although specific sizes have not been disclosed [7][8]. MSCI Overview - MSCI is a global provider of indices and related financial products, widely referenced by investment professionals, including portfolio managers and financial media. As of December 31, 2024, assets under management based on MSCI indices are approximately $16.9 trillion, covering equity and multi-asset class funds [8].

Core Insights - MSCI is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.37 per share, reflecting a 13.2% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $799.21 million, a 10.3% increase from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts forecast 'Operating Revenues- ESG and Climate' to reach $93.75 million, indicating a 12.1% year-over-year increase [4] - The consensus estimate for 'Operating Revenues- Analytics' is $184.18 million, reflecting a 6.9% year-over-year change [4] - 'Operating Revenues- Index' is expected to be $450.99 million, showing an 11.4% increase year-over-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - 'Operating Revenues- Asset-based fees - Total' is projected at $195.89 million, a 16.2% increase year-over-year [5] - Analysts estimate 'Period-End AUM in ETFs linked to MSCI equity indexes' at $2.12 billion, up from $1.76 billion in the same quarter last year [5] Subscription Metrics - The 'Index Run Rate - Recurring subscriptions' is expected to reach $984.65 million, compared to $906.80 million in the same quarter last year [6] - The average prediction for 'Total Run Rate - Total recurring subscriptions' is $2.38 billion, up from $2.21 billion in the previous year [6] Retention Rates and Run Rates - The estimated 'Total Retention Rate' is 94.8%, up from 94.2% a year ago [7] - 'Analytics Run Rate' is projected at $741.96 million, compared to $691.33 million last year [7] - 'All Other - Private Assets Run Rate' is expected to reach $285.02 million, up from $268.58 million in the same quarter last year [7] ESG and Climate Metrics - The 'ESG and Climate Run Rate' is estimated at $372.98 million, compared to $344.02 million in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Index Retention Rate' is projected to be 96.1%, up from 95.4% in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - MSCI shares have shown a return of -5.1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change, indicating a potential alignment with overall market performance [9]

Group 1 - MSCI Inc.'s share price has returned to levels seen in 2021, with a dividend yield of 1.3%, indicating limited growth potential as a compounder [1] Group 2 - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's "fair" value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation, each with its own strengths and weaknesses [2] - The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what truly belongs to shareholders, focusing on earnings, amortization, and investments while ignoring working capital and debt changes [2] - Forecasts employ the H-model for a 10-year two-stage growth fade, with terminal growth aligned to the risk-free rate, and all cash flows discounted by the cost of equity [2]

Core Insights - MSCI Inc. is valued at a market cap of $41.3 billion and provides various financial services including benchmark indices, portfolio risk analytics, ESG research, and climate finance solutions [1] - The company is set to announce its fiscal Q3 earnings for 2025 on October 28, 2023, with analysts expecting a profit of $4.37 per share, reflecting a 13.2% increase from the previous year [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, MSCI is projected to report a profit of $17.10 per share, which is a 12.5% increase from $15.20 per share in fiscal 2024 [3] - The company's EPS is expected to grow by 12.6% year-over-year to $19.25 in fiscal 2026 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, MSCI's shares have declined by 12.2%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's return of 13.5% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund's rise of 9% [4] - Following a mixed Q2 earnings release, MSCI's shares dropped by 8.9%, despite total operating revenue increasing by 9.1% year-over-year to $772.7 million [5] Analyst Ratings - Wall Street analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for MSCI, with 13 out of 21 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," three suggesting "Moderate Buy," four indicating "Hold," and one advising "Strong Sell" [6] - The mean price target for MSCI is set at $632.12, suggesting an 18.5% potential upside from current levels [6]

Core Insights - MSCI has underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past year, with a decline of 8% compared to the index's increase of 15% [1] Company Performance - The stock's performance has led to a "Hold" rating, which has been validated by its underperformance relative to the market [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has a long position in MSCI shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - MSCI has underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past year, with a decline of 8% compared to a 15% increase in the index, indicating a challenging period for the company [1]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The stock performance of MSCI has been notably poor, with a year-over-year decline of 8% [1]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 Index has shown a robust performance, increasing by 15% during the same period [1]. Group 2: Analyst Perspective - The previous "Hold" rating on MSCI was validated by its underperformance relative to the market [1].

Core Insights - The MSCI gold equities index has surged approximately 135% this year, significantly outperforming the semiconductor firms index, which has risen 40% [1][9] - The gap in performance highlights a market dynamic where investors are drawn to both AI-related gains and the ongoing rally in gold due to central bank accumulation [2][9] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 45% this year, reaching new all-time highs and on track for the best year since 1979, driven by central bank purchases, Federal Reserve rate cuts, de-dollarisation trends, and rising gold-backed ETF holdings [3][9] - Gold and gold miners are viewed as strong medium-term investment themes, with gold's safe haven appeal and potential for margin expansion and valuation re-rating for miners [3][9] Company Performance - Major companies in the MSCI gold miners index, such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines, have seen their New York-listed stocks more than double in 2025, while Zijin Mining Group's shares have increased over 130% in Hong Kong [6][9] - Fresnillo, a London-listed gold and silver miner, has nearly quadrupled in value, making it the top performer in the FTSE 100 Index [6][9] Valuation Comparisons - The MSCI gold miner index trades at 13 times forward earnings estimates, which is below its five-year average, indicating less concern over valuations compared to the tech sector, where the chip gauge trades at 29 times [7][9] - Despite significant gains in gold prices, miners' earnings growth has outpaced price increases, suggesting that their multiples remain attractive [7][9]

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of critical decision support tools and services for the global investment community, announced today that it will release its results for the third quarter 2025 on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, before the market opens. A copy of the earnings release, as well as an earnings presentation and a quarterly update, will be made available on MSCI's Investor Relations website. MSCI's senior management will review the third quarter 2025. ...