Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the restructuring of investment risks and opportunities has become a global phenomenon, with investors reassessing these factors more urgently than ever before [1] - The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is redefining the essence of finance and investment, with Asia-Pacific companies investing a higher percentage of their annual revenue in digital technology and generative AI compared to their North American and European counterparts [1] - Generative AI and other advanced technologies are expanding investment areas that previously attracted only a few investors, such as the private equity market, with MSCI predicting that by 2030, approximately one-sixth of global investable funds will flow into private equity [1] - Private equity assets are becoming mainstream, with a significant increase in allocation plans among wealth management institutions in the Asia-Pacific region, where 55% plan to increase private equity asset allocation in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Globalization is being rebooted rather than reversed, which holds extraordinary significance for the Asia-Pacific region [2] - According to McKinsey Global Institute data, 18 out of the 20 fastest-growing trade corridors globally are located in Asia, and 13 out of the 20 largest trade corridors are also situated there [2] - The current trend is not de-globalization but re-globalization, with trade volumes continuing to rise while trade patterns are being restructured, influenced by geopolitical competition and the reorganization of global supply chains [2]

格隆汇1月26日｜由于明晟公司（MSCI）即将调整其指数编制方法，市场风险偏好降温，导致印尼股市 上周录得自去年10月以来的首次资金外流。根据机构汇编的数据，海外投资者上周抛售了价值1.92亿美 元的本地股票，这是16周以来首次出现资金外流。此次撤资发生在印尼基准股指于1月20日创下历史新 高之后。"上周外资的抛售，部分是出于在明晟宣布自由流通股相关决定前的减持，部分是获利了 结，"Aletheia Capital分析师尼尔古南·蒂鲁切尔瓦姆表示，"甚至一些本地资金也已撤出。"高盛集团策 略师阿尔文·苏等人在周五的一份报告中写道，明晟对印尼自由流通股的重新计算，可能导致被动型基 金在未来几个月从印尼股市撤出约23亿美元资金。 ...

Core Insights - MSCI is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.61 per share, reflecting a 10.3% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $821.98 million, a 10.6% increase from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.4% in the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial estimates [2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Operating Revenues- Sustainability and Climate' to be $92.36 million, an 8.4% increase from the prior year [5] - 'Operating Revenues- Asset-based fees - Total' is expected to reach $209.75 million, indicating a 19.6% year-over-year change [5] - 'Operating Revenues- Analytics' is estimated at $185.31 million, reflecting a 7.3% increase [6] - 'Operating Revenues- All Other - Private Assets' is projected at $71.68 million, a 9.7% increase from the previous year [6] Run Rate Estimates - The estimated 'Index Run Rate - Recurring subscriptions' is $1.02 billion, up from $934.25 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'All Other - Private Assets Run Rate' is forecasted to reach $288.40 million, compared to $266.72 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The 'Sustainability and Climate Run Rate' is expected to be $376.43 million, up from $343.74 million in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Total Run Rate - Total recurring subscriptions' is projected at $2.44 billion, compared to $2.24 billion a year ago [9] Retention Rates - Analysts predict the 'Analytics Retention Rate' will be 93.9%, up from 93.3% year-over-year [6] - The 'Index Retention Rate' is expected to reach 95.4%, compared to 95.0% in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Sustainability and Climate Retention Rate' is projected at 93.7%, an increase from 93.1% year-over-year [9] - The consensus estimate for 'All Other - Private Assets Retention Rate' stands at 88.1%, compared to 86.4% in the previous year [9] Market Performance - Over the past month, MSCI shares have returned +1.6%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [10]

Core Insights - The iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (EUFN) provides exposure to developed European financials by tracking the MSCI Europe Financials Index, which includes constituents classified in GICS Financials [1] - The MSCI Europe Index targets approximately 85% of free-float market capitalization in developed European markets, focusing on large- and mid-cap segments [1] - The index employs a methodology that includes free-float adjustments, foreign ownership limits, and minimum liquidity requirements, with no caps on issuers, countries, or industries [1] Index Construction Methodology - The MSCI Europe Financials Index is constructed using a free-float market-cap-weighted approach, ensuring that weights reflect the market value within the financial sector [1] - Regular reviews of the index occur quarterly in February and August, and semi-annually in May and November, during which size/liquidity buffers and GICS classifications are reassessed [1] - Additions and deletions to the index are implemented in a single pass during these review cycles [1]

Low free float has already become a flash point in Indonesia, where many of the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index’s biggest members are thinly traded stocks controlled by a handful of wealthy individuals. Investors argue these volatile stocks distort the index, which masks true market performance and heightens the risk of manipulation.In the big business of index compilations, free float is a relatively obscure but crucial metric. Benchmark providers like MSCI and FTSE Russell rely on it to measure how easi ...

MSCI正考虑收紧流通股定义，这一指数编制方法的调整可能引发超过20亿美元资金从印尼股市撤出。 这家指数编制商将在1月底前决定是否实施新规，任何获批的变更将在5月审核中生效，对这个市值9710 亿美元的东南亚最大股市产生深远影响。 据彭博社20日报道，印尼股市已面临亚太地区最低的平均流通股比例问题。如果MSCI发现印尼公司实 际可交易股票数量低于报告数据，被动投资者将被迫抛售现有持仓。这一决定将成为印尼股市多年来最 重大的事件之一，直接影响资金流向和投资者信心。 受冲击最大的将是该国及地区的龙头企业，包括亿万富翁Prajogo Pangestu持股84%的PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi，以及其持股71%的PT Barito Pacific等公司。Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Gary Tan表 示，这项审核是对印尼资本市场改革议程的关键考验，凸显了吸引更多国际资金所需的公司治理改进。 尽管面临流出压力，部分投资者认为印尼市场的长期增长潜力仍具吸引力。PT Sucorinvest Asset Management首席投资官Dimas Yusuf表示："考虑到 ...

Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF (FREL US) – Portfolio Construction MethodologyThe underlying MSCI USA IMI Real Estate 25/25 Index offers full-market-cap coverage of US real estate equities by selecting all GICS Real Estate constituents across large, mid, and small caps from the MSCI USA IMI. Eligibility follows MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes rules, including free-float adjustment, foreign ownership limits, and liquidity/investability thresholds; size segmentation targets ~99% of US free-float mar ...

Core Thesis - MSCI Inc. is viewed positively due to its strong fundamentals and consistent revenue growth, despite recent stock underperformance [1][3]. Company Overview - MSCI Inc. provides essential decision support tools and solutions for the investment community, including indexes for various financial products like ETFs and mutual funds [2]. Recent Performance - MSCI shares have decreased approximately 14.5% over the past year and only increased about 8% over the last three years, underperforming the S&P 500 [3]. - The company's revenue growth has outpaced share price performance, indicating improved valuation despite limited stock appreciation [3]. Financial Growth - Revenue grew from approximately $1.7 billion in 2020 to an estimated $2.86 billion by the end of 2024, reflecting nearly two decades of steady expansion [4]. - Annual revenue growth has typically ranged between 8% and 12% since around 2015, supported by a diversified platform and high client retention rates near 95% [4]. Market Dynamics - Recent stock weakness is attributed to a slowdown in growth rather than business deterioration, with revenue growth slowing to about 7% over the trailing twelve months [5]. - MSCI's trailing P/E is around 34, which is below historical levels that often reached the 40s or higher [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts project approximately 12% annual earnings growth through 2029, indicating attractive long-term return potential [5]. - Recent positive developments include a modest increase in 2025 free cash flow guidance and several product launches across various sectors [5].

Core Insights - JPMorgan analysts observed a stabilizing flow pressure in spot crypto ETFs in early January, following a period of de-risking in late 2025 that was characterized by ETF redemptions rather than a liquidity freeze [1][2] - Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,428, down 2.50%, while Ethereum is at $3,100, down 4.54% [1] Group 1: ETF Flow Dynamics - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $697.25 million in net inflows on January 5, which shifted to $243 million in net outflows by January 7, indicating a transition from "forced reduction" to "tactical rotation" [2] - This change in flow dynamics is expected to tighten intraday ranges and enhance bid support in Bitcoin perpetual funding regimes [2] Group 2: Market Positioning and Sentiment - JPMorgan's analysis aligns with previous insights from Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou's team, which differentiated between October's perpetual deleveraging and November's ETF-led selling by non-crypto investors, primarily retail ETF users [3] - This distinction helps maintain the correction narrative focused on positioning rather than systemic market issues [3] Group 3: Traditional Allocators and Risk Sentiment - Traditional allocators received a positive signal when MSCI announced it would not remove digital-asset treasury companies (DATCO) from indexes, which alleviated near-term forced-selling risks for passive index products holding crypto-related equities [4] - The shares of Strategy's (MSTR) increased following this update, indicating a reduction in selling pressure [4] Group 4: Trade Setup Changes - The current trading environment is characterized by alternating creation and redemption days, allowing desks to hedge more effectively through basis and options [5] - If MSCI retains the "DATCO" category in benchmarks during the February review, it could prevent systematic equity reallocations from acting as a hidden sell program for crypto beta, thereby supporting tighter correlations among Bitcoin spot, CME basis, and ETF flow momentum [6]

Company Overview - MSCI Inc. has a market capitalization of $42.5 billion and provides decision-support tools and solutions for the investment community, aiding in managing and optimizing investment processes across public and private markets [1] Financial Performance - Analysts expect MSCI to report an adjusted EPS of $4.59 for fiscal Q4 2025, reflecting a 9.8% increase from $4.18 in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, the anticipated adjusted EPS is $17.22, which represents a 13.3% rise from $15.20 in fiscal 2024 [3] - MSCI's Q3 2025 results showed a 9.5% increase in operating revenues to $793.4 million and a 15.8% rise in net income to $325.4 million, driven by record recurring sales and a 17% growth in asset-based fees [5] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, MSCI's shares have declined by 1.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's gain of 16.2% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's increase of 16.4% [4] - Following the strong Q3 2025 results, MSCI's shares climbed 8.6% on October 28 [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for MSCI stock is "Moderate Buy," with 19 analysts providing coverage, including 11 "Strong Buys," three "Moderate Buys," four "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [6] - The average analyst price target for MSCI is $649.47, indicating a potential upside of 10.6% from current levels [7]