Core Themes - 2026 is expected to be shaped by significant market themes, with rotation being a major focus due to sharp valuation disparities [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1]

Core Themes for 2026 - Investors should focus on core themes that will shape the markets in 2026, with rotation being a significant factor due to sharp valuation disparities [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts, Inc. is a leading global mountain resort operator with premier ski destinations in the U.S., Canada, and Australia, competing with other leisure and hospitality businesses [1] Financial Performance - Vail Resorts has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.19%, which is below its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 6.06%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of 0.86, indicating a need for improved capital efficiency [2][6] - Comparative analysis shows that Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) has a ROIC of 53.59%, significantly outperforming Vail Resorts in capital utilization [6] Peer Comparison - Masimo Corporation has a negative ROIC of -11.49% and a WACC of 9.14%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of -1.26, indicating struggles in generating returns above its cost of capital [3] - Hyatt Hotels Corporation has a ROIC of -20.09% and a WACC of 8.41%, with a ROIC to WACC ratio of -2.39, highlighting inefficiencies in capital utilization [3] - IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. has a ROIC of 38.09% and a WACC of 11.47%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of 3.32, indicating efficient capital utilization [4] - The Toro Company has a ROIC of 13.58% and a WACC of 7.28%, with a ROIC to WACC ratio of 1.87, also demonstrating effective capital utilization [4] - FICO stands out with a ROIC to WACC ratio of 5.72, indicating strong capital efficiency and value creation for shareholders [5]

Core Viewpoint - Vail Resorts' stock presents an attractive dividend yield of approximately 6.7%, which is significantly higher than short-term Treasury rates, making it a potential investment opportunity despite recent performance challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - Vail's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 was $271 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of only 4.1% [5]. - North American pass sales decreased by 2% in units and increased by just 3% in dollar sales year over year, indicating a lack of strong demand [5]. - A 7% price increase contributed to the revenue growth, but the overall sales performance remains unimpressive [6]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company's trailing-12-month free cash flow stands at $352.2 million, which comfortably covers its trailing-12-month dividend payments of $324.8 million, suggesting financial stability to maintain the dividend [8][9]. - Management has indicated that maintaining the current dividend levels is a priority for fiscal 2026, alongside share repurchases totaling $25 million in fiscal Q1 [9]. Valuation and Risks - Despite a 29% decline in stock price over the past year, Vail's shares are not considered cheap, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 and a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 13.5 [10]. - The company has a net debt of approximately $2.6 billion, which raises concerns given its free cash flow generation of around $350 million [11]. - There is a potential risk of dividend reduction or suspension in the future, although management has committed to the dividend for the current fiscal year [12]. Market Outlook - CEO Rob Katz noted early momentum in initiatives aimed at increasing visitation for the 2025/2026 ski season, but adverse weather conditions at key resorts may dampen this optimism [7]. - Positive changes in weather and effective marketing strategies could enhance business performance and reduce the perceived risk associated with the dividend [13]. - Overall, the current risk-reward profile for Vail stock is viewed as unattractive, with a suggestion that a further decline in stock price could prompt a reevaluation of investment decisions [14].

Incident Overview - A deadly fire at Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana has resulted in 40 fatalities and 115 serious injuries, with many victims in critical condition [2][3] - The fire broke out around 1:30 a.m. during New Year celebrations, highlighting the scale of the tragedy [2] Investigation and Response - Swiss officials are investigating the incident, which is believed to be accidental, with evidence suggesting sparklers ignited a fire in the bar's ceiling [3][6] - Authorities dispatched 13 helicopters and 42 ambulances to transport victims to hospitals and specialist burn centers [6] - Investigators are examining safety procedures and emergency exits at the venue [8] Victim Identification and Support - Efforts are underway to identify victims, with many foreign nationals among those affected, including 12 to 15 Italians hospitalized and 16 missing, as well as 9 French citizens injured and 8 missing [5][8] - A helpline has been established for families seeking information about their loved ones [8] Company and Industry Impact - Crans-Montana is a prominent ski and hiking destination, recently acquired by Vail Resorts Inc. as part of its European expansion, although the company does not own the bar [9][10] - Vail Resorts expressed condolences and offered support to the victims and their families [10]

Core Points - A major fire at a bar in Crans-Montana ski resort resulted in at least 40 fatalities and over 110 injuries, marking it as one of Switzerland's worst tragedies according to President Guy Parmelin [1][2][4] - The incident occurred around 1:30 am, with smoke first spotted at Le Constellation bar, leading to a rapid response from the fire department [3][4] - Witness accounts suggest that sparklers used during a celebratory event may have ignited the fire, as they were reportedly too close to the ceiling [5][6] Summary by Sections Incident Overview - The fire broke out at a bar in Crans-Montana, resulting in significant casualties, with over 30 victims requiring specialized burn treatment in hospitals across Zurich, Lausanne, and Geneva [1][4] - A large-scale emergency response was initiated, including the establishment of a no-fly zone over the area [6] Victim Information - Reports indicate that around 15 Italians were injured, with a similar number still unaccounted for, while nine French citizens were among the injured [6] Location Context - Crans-Montana is a well-known ski and hiking destination, operated by Vail Resorts Inc., and is a venue for World Cup races [7]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts is enhancing food and beverage experiences across its Colorado mountain destinations, introducing innovative dining concepts and partnerships to reflect local culture and character [1][2][3] Group 1: New Dining Experiences - Breckenridge Ski Resort will launch a variety of new dining experiences across all Five Peaks and Main Street, focusing on memorable moments that enhance the ski experience [2][5] - The Maggie Waffle Shop will offer sweet and savory stuffed waffles, while the rebranded Maggie Kitchen & Taphouse will feature Southern-inspired comfort food and a selection of 14 beers on draft [6] - Peak 9 will introduce new twists on familiar venues, including ramen at Overlook and shareable BBQ flavors at TenMile Station [7] Group 2: Partnerships and Local Flavor - Vail Resorts has partnered with Outer Range Brewing Co., a local brewery known for its hop-forward beers, to bring Colorado's craft beer culture to its resorts [3][4] - Custom beer cans with unique designs inspired by each resort will be available, enhancing the local experience for guests [4] Group 3: Unique Offerings Across Resorts - Vail Mountain will feature nostalgic dining experiences with a European flair, including a Martini Lunch for Two and an Alpine Duet at Two Elk Biergarten [12][13] - Beaver Creek Resort will host The Alpine Table, a culinary event featuring a multi-course tasting menu crafted by renowned chefs, enhancing the dining experience for food enthusiasts [14][15] - Keystone Resort will introduce Dog Cat, a mobile dining option serving hot dogs and drinks, aligning with its family-friendly atmosphere [17][18]

Core Insights - Heavenly Mountain Resort is celebrating its 70th anniversary this winter with a series of events and activities, starting with a headlining DJ set by Foster the People on December 20 [1][3] Group 1: Anniversary Celebrations - The 70th Anniversary Party will feature vintage vibes, food and beverage specials, and music from various decades since the resort's opening in 1955 [3] - Additional events include DJ sets from artists such as Vandelux, Dombresky, Forester, and SkiiTour throughout the season [3] - The Toyota Air and Après event, scheduled for February 27 to March 1, will showcase skilled athletes performing stunts on a 45-foot jump, accompanied by DJ sets and a festival village [3] Group 2: Special Events - The Gunbarrel 25 event on March 28 invites participants to complete 25 laps on challenging mogul terrain, with registration details to be announced later [3] - The Heavenly Pond Skim event on April 11 will challenge participants to ski across a man-made pond, with registration details to follow [3] Group 3: Visitor Information - Visitors can save up to $90 on lift tickets by purchasing online at least four weeks in advance [4] - The resort is positioned as a must-see, must-ski destination in Lake Tahoe, emphasizing its appeal to both skiers and riders [4] Group 4: Company Overview - Vail Resorts operates a network of premier ski resorts across North America and internationally, including notable locations such as Vail Mountain and Whistler Blackcomb [5] - The company is committed to sustainability with a goal of achieving a zero net operating footprint by 2030 [5]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high of 48,685, gaining 1.3% on Thursday, following a 1.1% increase the previous day, marking the best two-day rally since May [1] - Small caps continued to rise, with the Russell 2000 up 1% at 2,590, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% due to declines in chipmakers [2] - Major US indices showed varied performance, with the Nasdaq 100 at 25,595.45 (-0.7%), S&P 500 at 6,884.86 (0.0%), Dow Jones at 48,653.82 (+1.2%), and Russell 2000 at 2,585.75 (+1.0%) [7] Sector Performance - Technology sector was the only S&P 500 sector trading in the red, with notable declines in shares of Nvidia Corp. (-2.5%), Broadcom Inc. (-2.3%), and Intel Corp. (-3%) [3] - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) lagged, down 1.1%, while the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) outperformed, up 2.0% [8] Company-Specific News - Oracle Corp. shares dropped 12% after disappointing earnings and guidance [2] - Vail Resorts, Inc. saw an increase of 8.60%, while The Mosaic Company and Rocket Lab USA, Inc. also posted gains of 8.13% and 7.73% respectively [9] - In contrast, Oracle Corporation experienced a significant decline of 13.28%, alongside other companies like Robinhood Markets, Inc. (-7.87%) and Medical Properties Trust Inc. (-6.62%) [9] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, indicating early signs of cooling in labor-market conditions, surpassing the consensus of 220,000 [4] - Despite the jobless claims data, traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its late-January meeting, with an 82% probability of no change [4] Commodity and Crypto Markets - The dollar fell to a two-month low, while gold rose 1.1% to $4,280 an ounce, copper increased nearly 2%, and silver surged 3.7% to a record $64, marking a 121% year-to-date increase [5] - Crypto markets faced pressure, with Bitcoin dropping 2.5% below $90,000 and Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano also experiencing declines [6]

Group 1 - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones increasing by over 600 points on Thursday [1] - Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc's shares surged 45.3% to $170.74 after First Eagle announced an acquisition for $175 per share in a $473 million all-cash deal [1] Group 2 - Planet Labs PBC's stock rose 29.7% to $16.79 following better-than-expected third-quarter sales results and an optimistic fourth-quarter sales guidance [2] - Nextdoor Holdings Inc experienced a gain of 22.9% to $3.11 [2] - Gemini Space Station Inc's shares jumped 19.2% to $13.54 after regulatory approval for its subsidiary to offer prediction markets to U.S. customers [2] - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc's stock increased by 13.5% to $119.00 after announcing preliminary results from a Phase 2 trial for setmelanotide in Prader-Willi syndrome patients [2] - Candel Therapeutics Inc gained 12.4% to $6.52 [2] - VersaBank's shares rose 12.34% to $14.52 [2] - Perpetua Resources Corp's stock increased by 10.4% to $28.37 [2] - iHeartMedia Inc jumped 10.1% to $5.19 [2] - NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc gained 9.5% to $2.65 [2] - Idaho Strategic Resources Inc's shares rose 9.3% to $43.62 [2] - Immunovant Inc's stock increased by 8.5% to $25.57 after pricing a $550 million common stock offering [2] - Vail Resorts Inc gained 8.3% to $153.30 following first-quarter results [2] - Mosaic Co's shares surged 7.2% to $25.47 amid higher fertilizer stock prices after reports of Ukraine attacking Russian fertilizer plants [2] - Wayfair Inc's stock rose 6.9% to $99.76 [2] - Centene Corp gained 5.3% to $40.72 [2]