Core Viewpoint - Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) has underperformed in the past year, losing 14% of its value despite a strong equity market, primarily due to slow demand in a softer discretionary spending environment [1] Company Performance - The company's stock has seen a decline of 14% over the past year [1] - This decline occurred in the context of a generally strong equity market, indicating specific challenges faced by the company [1] Market Environment - The current market environment is characterized by slower demand and reduced discretionary spending, which has negatively impacted Vail Resorts [1]

Shares of Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing 14% of their value despite a strong equity market, as the company has struggled with slow demand amidst a softer discretionary spending environment. I last covered shares ofOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a question for an ...

Core Insights - Vail Resorts reported revenue of $271.29 million for the quarter ended July 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 2.2% but falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.21% [1] - The company experienced an EPS of -$5.08, which is a decline from -$4.67 a year ago, and the EPS surprise was -6.95% compared to the consensus estimate of -$4.75 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total skier visits were reported at 0.75 thousand, matching the average estimate [4] - Managed condominium RevPAR was $48.62, exceeding the average estimate of $46.15 [4] - Owned hotel RevPAR reached $185.37, surpassing the estimated $178.07 [4] - Mountain ETP was $63.20, above the average estimate of $59.70 [4] - Lodging net revenue was $90.27 million, exceeding the average estimate of $88.25 million, with a year-over-year change of +0.9% [4] - Mountain net revenue was $180.93 million, slightly above the average estimate of $179.08 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +2.9% [4] - Resort net revenue totaled $271.2 million, surpassing the average estimate of $267.74 million, with a year-over-year change of +2.2% [4] - Real estate revenue was $0.09 million, below the average estimate of $0.34 million, with no year-over-year change [4] - Mountain net revenue from other sources was $81.1 million, exceeding the average estimate of $71.77 million, representing a +6.9% year-over-year change [4] - Managed condominium rooms revenue was $10.11 million, slightly below the average estimate of $10.46 million, reflecting a -3.7% year-over-year change [4] - Retail/rental revenue from mountain operations was $24.09 million, below the average estimate of $26.29 million, with a year-over-year change of -0.9% [4] - Dining revenue was $18.39 million, below the average estimate of $20.51 million, showing a +2.4% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Vail Resorts' shares have returned -9.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Vail Resorts reported a quarterly loss of $5.08 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $4.75, and compared to a loss of $4.67 per share a year ago, indicating a negative earnings surprise of -6.95% [1] - The company generated revenues of $271.29 million for the quarter ended July 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.21%, but showing an increase from $265.39 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Vail Resorts has underperformed the market, with shares down approximately 21.2% year-to-date, contrasting with a 13% gain in the S&P 500 [3] Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook for Vail Resorts is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates for the upcoming quarter at -$5.14 and $7.63 for the current fiscal year, alongside projected revenues of $271.97 million and $3.06 billion respectively [7] - The trend of estimate revisions prior to the earnings release was unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, suggesting expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Vail Resorts belongs, is currently ranked in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a relatively strong position within the market [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Vail Resorts' stock performance [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $844 million of resort reported EBITDA in fiscal 2025, representing a 2% growth compared to the prior year despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts [19][20] - Fiscal 2026 guidance expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $201 million and $276 million, with resort reported EBITDA projected between $842 million and $898 million [20][21] - Season pass sales through September 19, 2025, decreased approximately 3% in units but increased approximately 1% in sales dollars compared to the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation, which is essential for revenue and long-term growth, and has introduced Epic Friend Tickets to drive lift ticket sales for new guests [11][12] - The pass price reset ahead of the 2021-2022 season has led to a projected increase of over 50% in pass units for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2021 [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates growth in fiscal 2026 to be driven by price increases, ancillary capture, and incremental efficiencies related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, partially offset by lower pass unit sales [22] - The company expects to exceed $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal year 2026 [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a multi-year strategy aimed at increasing guest visitation and optimizing product and pricing approaches across all resorts [10][11] - The focus is on leveraging strong competitive advantages, including owning and operating 42 resorts, to drive sustained and profitable growth [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that results from the past season were below expectations and emphasized the need to adapt marketing strategies to connect with guests more effectively [5][6] - The company is preparing for fiscal 2027 and is focused on long-term growth despite current challenges [36][37] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital before additional growth capital investments in European resorts [24] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share, reflecting strong cash flow generation [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expectation for visitation this upcoming season? - Management expects total visitation to be down slightly, primarily driven by the decline in pass sales, but anticipates some recovery through lift ticket sales [35] Question: How significant is the change in the Buddy Pass system? - The Buddy Pass historically contributes about 7% of total lift revenue and 20% of paid lift ticket revenue, and management expects it to positively impact lift ticket growth this year [60][62] Question: What are the trends for international guests? - Management noted that international visitation has decreased over the past several years but does not see it as a major issue for the upcoming season [82] Question: Where is the company seeing weakness in its consumer base? - Management indicated that the results are consistent across various guest demographics, with lower renewal rates for less tenured pass holders [88][92] Question: What needs to happen to hit the upper end of the guidance range? - Visitation is the key driver for achieving the upper end of the guidance range, and management is focused on strategies to enhance visitation [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $844 million of resort reported EBITDA in fiscal 2025, representing a 2% growth compared to the prior year despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts [19][20] - Fiscal 2026 guidance expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $201 million and $276 million, with resort reported EBITDA projected between $842 million and $898 million [20][21] - Season pass sales through September 19, 2025, decreased approximately 3% in units but increased approximately 1% in sales dollars compared to the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation, which is essential for revenue and long-term growth, and has introduced Epic Friend Tickets to drive lift ticket sales for new guests [11][12] - The pass price reset ahead of the 2021-2022 season has led to a projected increase of over 50% in pass units for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2021 [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates growth in fiscal 2026 to be driven by price increases, ancillary capture, and incremental efficiencies related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, partially offset by lower pass unit sales [22] - The company expects to exceed $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal year 2026 [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a multi-year strategy aimed at increasing guest visitation and optimizing product and pricing approaches across all resorts [10][11] - The focus is on leveraging strong competitive advantages, including owning and operating 42 resorts, to drive sustained and profitable growth [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that results from the past season were below expectations and emphasized the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences [5][6] - The company is confident in its ability to return to higher growth in fiscal year 2027 and beyond, despite current challenges [5][18] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital before additional growth capital investments in European resorts [24] - A quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share has been declared, reflecting strong cash flow generation [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expectation for visitation this upcoming season? - Management expects total visitation to be down slightly, primarily driven by the decline in pass sales, but anticipates some offset from lift ticket sales [35] Question: How significant is the change in the Buddy Pass system? - The Buddy Pass historically contributes about 7% of total lift revenue and 20% of paid lift ticket revenue, and management expects it to positively impact lift ticket growth this year [60][62] Question: What are the trends for international guests? - There has been no significant trend affecting overall results from international visitation, although it has declined over the past several years for various reasons [82] Question: Where is the company seeing weakness in its consumer base? - The company is experiencing lower renewal rates for less tenured pass holders, but overall performance is consistent across different guest demographics [88][92] Question: What needs to happen to hit the upper end of the guidance range? - The key driver for achieving the upper end of the guidance range is visitation, which impacts all ancillary revenue [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $844 million of resort reported EBITDA in fiscal 2025, representing a 2% growth compared to the prior year despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts [19][20] - Fiscal 2026 guidance expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $201 million and $276 million, with reported EBITDA projected between $842 million and $898 million [20][21] - Season pass sales through September 19, 2025, decreased approximately 3% in units but increased approximately 1% in sales dollars compared to the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation, which is essential for revenue and long-term growth, and has introduced Epic Friend Tickets to drive sales [11][12] - The pass price reset ahead of the 2021-2022 season has led to a projected increase of over 50% in pass units for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2021 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates growth in fiscal 2026 to be driven by price increases, ancillary capture, and normalized weather conditions in Australia, partially offset by lower pass unit sales [22] - The company has seen a broad-based result in performance across different guest demographics, indicating potential market maturity [91] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a multi-year strategy aimed at leveraging competitive advantages to drive sustained and profitable growth [10][17] - A new Chief Revenue Officer will be appointed to focus on driving all aspects of revenue for the company, reflecting a strategic shift in leadership [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that results from the past season were below expectations and emphasized the need to adapt marketing strategies to evolving consumer preferences [5][6] - The company is confident in its ability to return to higher growth in fiscal year 2027 and beyond, despite current challenges [5][18] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital for fiscal 2026, with additional investments in European resorts and real estate projects [24][25] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share, reflecting strong cash flow generation [29] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the expectation for visitation this upcoming season? - Management expects total visitation to be down slightly, primarily driven by the decline in pass sales, but anticipates some recovery through lift ticket sales [35] Question: How significant is the change in the pricing strategy for passes? - Management indicated that a more strategic approach to pricing will be taken, focusing on individual pass products rather than a blanket approach [41] Question: What is the expected impact of the Epic Friend Tickets on visitation? - Management expects the Epic Friend Tickets to contribute positively to visitation, although the full impact will take time to materialize [37][65] Question: How does the company view the impact of international guests on sales? - Management does not see any significant trends affecting international visitation that would materially impact overall results [84] Question: What are the trends in consumer behavior regarding renewals? - Management noted that while there is a lower renewal rate for less tenured passholders, overall trade-up and trade-down behaviors remain consistent [93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $844 million of resort reported EBITDA in fiscal 2025, representing a 2% growth compared to the prior year despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts [19][20] - Fiscal 2026 guidance expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $201 million and $276 million, with reported EBITDA projected between $842 million and $898 million [20][21] - Season pass sales through September 19, 2025, decreased approximately 3% in units but increased approximately 1% in sales dollars compared to the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation, which is essential for revenue and long-term growth, and has introduced Epic Friend Tickets to drive lift ticket sales for new guests [11][12] - The pass price reset ahead of the 2021-2022 season exceeded expectations, with pass units expected to be up over 50% in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2021 [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates growth in fiscal 2026 to be driven by price increases, ancillary capture, and normalized weather conditions in Australia, partially offset by lower pass unit sales [21][22] - The Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan is expected to exceed $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026 [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance guest engagement through modern marketing channels and increase media investment to drive awareness and visitation [13][14] - A new Chief Revenue Officer will be appointed to focus on driving all aspects of revenue for the company, reflecting a strategic shift in leadership [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that results from the past season were below expectations and emphasizes the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences [5][6] - The company is committed to a multi-year strategy to unlock its full potential, focusing on guest visitation and optimizing product and pricing approaches [10][11] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital for the year, with additional growth capital investments planned for European resorts [24][25] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share, reflecting strong cash flow generation [29] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the expectation for visitation this upcoming season? - The company expects total visitation to be down slightly, primarily driven by the decline in pass sales, but anticipates some offset from lift ticket sales [34] Question: How significant is the change in the pricing strategy for passes? - The company is considering a more strategic approach to pricing, focusing on individual pass products rather than a blanket approach [40][41] Question: What is the expected impact of the Epic Friend Tickets on visitation? - The company expects Epic Friend Tickets to positively impact visitation, although the full benefits will take time to materialize [64] Question: How does the company view the impact of Park City disruptions on visitation? - Management views the disruptions as a tailwind for the upcoming season, expecting improved guest experiences [70] Question: What are the trends in international guest visitation? - There has been no significant shift in international visitation trends that would materially affect overall results [84] Question: Where is the company seeing weaknesses in its consumer base? - The company notes a broad-based performance across different demographics, with lower renewal rates for less tenured passholders [90][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $844 million of resort reported EBITDA in fiscal 2025, representing a 2% growth compared to the prior year despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts [18] - Fiscal 2026 guidance expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $201 million and $276 million and reported EBITDA to be between $842 million and $898 million [19][20] - Season pass sales through September 19, 2025, decreased approximately 3% in units but increased approximately 1% in sales dollars compared to the prior year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation, which is essential for revenue and long-term growth, and is enhancing lift ticket offerings and pricing strategies [10][11] - The introduction of Epic Friend Tickets aims to drive lift ticket sales for new guests and convert them into future pass purchases [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates growth in fiscal 2026 to be driven by price increases, ancillary capture, and incremental efficiencies related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, partially offset by lower pass unit sales [20][21] - The Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan is expected to exceed $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a multi-year strategy to unlock its full potential, focusing on guest engagement, marketing channel adaptation, and enhancing the guest experience [8][10] - The company plans to evaluate all aspects of its pass portfolio, including product offerings and pricing, to optimize overall lift access revenue growth [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that results from the past season were below expectations and emphasized the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences [4][5] - The company is confident in its ability to return to higher growth in fiscal year 2027 and beyond, leveraging its competitive advantages and data infrastructure [16][17] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital before additional growth capital investments in European resorts [23] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share, reflecting strong cash flow generation [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expectation for visitation for the upcoming season? - Management expects total visitation to be down slightly, primarily driven by the decline in pass sales, but anticipates some offset from lift ticket sales [34] Question: How significant is the change in pricing strategy for passes? - Management indicated that a more strategic approach to pricing will be taken, focusing on individual pass products rather than a blanket approach [40][41] Question: What is the expected impact of the Epic Friend Tickets on visitation? - Management expects Epic Friend Tickets to positively impact visitation, although the full benefits will take time to materialize [35][60] Question: How does the company view the impact of international guests on pass sales? - Management noted that while international visitation has declined over the years, it does not see this as a major issue affecting overall results [72] Question: What are the trends in consumer behavior regarding pass renewals? - Management observed lower renewal rates for less tenured passholders but noted that overall trends are consistent across different guest demographics [76][78]

Shares of Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) were under pressure in late trading after missing fourth quarter profit and sales expectations, while pass product sales for the upcoming North American ski season also disappointed investors. “Our approach to engaging with guests has not ...