Core Insights - Maple Tree Capital's Q3 2025 performance was mixed, with the Jonagold portfolio experiencing a 13.12% loss due to a decline in Upstart, while the Heartwood portfolio gained 40.2% [1] - Heartwood's return since its inception in 2023 has exceeded 100%, outperforming the S&P 500's 82% return during the same period [1] Portfolio Highlights - Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) was highlighted as a significant stock, with a one-month return of -11.70% but a remarkable 207.47% increase over the last 52 weeks [2] - As of December 30, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. closed at $85.17 per share, with a market capitalization of $21.446 billion [2] Investment Strategy - Heartwood sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT) at a 72.4% loss in Q2 2025, reallocating the remaining capital into Nebius Group N.V. at a cost basis of $31.35, resulting in a 288% gain that offset the DNUT loss and contributed to fund outperformance [3] - Nebius Group N.V. was held by 65 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3, an increase from 45 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest [4]

Core Insights - The AI infrastructure market is projected to grow from $60.23 billion in 2025 to $499.33 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 26.6% [2] - Companies like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) are positioned as key players in the AI infrastructure space, focusing on GPU-based cloud services [1][3] CoreWeave (CRWV) - CRWV has experienced a 134% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by strong demand for its AI cloud platform and a robust backlog of $55.6 billion [5][7] - The company has secured significant contracts, including a multi-year deal with Meta worth up to $14.2 billion and an expanded partnership with OpenAI totaling approximately $22.4 billion [9] - Despite supply chain challenges affecting revenue guidance, CRWV remains confident in its operational agility and ability to scale infrastructure [4][10] Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - NBIS has raised its capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to around $5 billion to expand its power capacity, but has faced delays that have lowered its 2025 revenue outlook to $500–$550 million [7][12][13] - The company has secured major contracts with Meta and Microsoft, valued between $3 billion and $19.4 billion, enhancing its revenue visibility [15] - NBIS is focused on expanding its data center capacity and enhancing its enterprise portfolio, with ambitious annual recurring revenue (ARR) goals of $900 million–$1.1 billion by the end of 2025 [13][15] Market Performance - In the past month, CRWV's stock has declined by 0.9%, while NBIS has seen a more significant drop of 12.6% [17] - Valuation metrics indicate that NBIS may be overvalued with a Price/Book ratio of 4.59X compared to CRWV's 9.63X, suggesting CRWV may be a more attractive investment option [18] Investment Outlook - Both companies are experiencing rapid growth, but CRWV currently leads in revenue generation and customer backlog, while NBIS is in a phase of aggressive expansion [22] - CRWV is viewed as a better investment option based on its stronger market position and growth potential, reflected in its Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) compared to NBIS's 4 (Sell) [23]

Core Insights - The SEC requires companies with over $100 million in stock holdings to report these to the SEC quarterly, with public disclosures made 45 days after the quarter ends [1] - Investors often use this information to inform their own investment decisions, gaining insights into what leading investors are buying and selling [2] Company Focus: Nvidia - Nvidia is currently the world's largest company, known for its leading graphics processing units (GPUs), which provide significant insights into the AI industry [3] - Due to its substantial profits, Nvidia has begun investing in other companies with growth potential, which could present opportunities for investors [4] Investment Highlights - At the end of Q3, Nvidia held shares in six publicly traded companies, with Applied Digital and Nebius Group being particularly noteworthy for potential investments in 2026 [5] - Nvidia owns approximately 7.7 million shares of Applied Digital, representing about 2.8% of the company, which is involved in the data center construction boom [6][7] - Applied Digital's stock price increased by 238% in 2025, driven by 15-year leases with AI companies, indicating strong future potential despite current unprofitability [8]

Core Insights - Nebius is positioned to become a significant AI infrastructure provider over the next decade, driven by rapid revenue growth and strategic enterprise partnerships [1] - The company is expanding its supercomputer capacity and real-world AI applications, which could lead to substantial long-term upside if executed efficiently [1] Company Overview - Nebius is experiencing explosive revenue growth, indicating strong demand for its AI infrastructure services [1] - The company is actively forming major partnerships with enterprises, enhancing its market position and potential for future growth [1] Market Trends - The demand for AI infrastructure is accelerating, suggesting a favorable market environment for companies like Nebius [1] - The expansion of supercomputer capacity is a critical factor in meeting the increasing needs of AI applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group's stock has experienced significant growth in 2025, with a price increase of approximately 225%, despite a 33% decline from its all-time highs in October [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Nebius was spun out from Yandex, the Russian equivalent of Google, and is now headquartered in Amsterdam, focusing on AI infrastructure [4] - The company provides full-stack capabilities with high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) and has major clients like Meta Platforms and Microsoft, with multi-year contracts [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Nebius reported a remarkable revenue growth of 355% year-over-year, reaching $146 million in Q3, although it remains unprofitable with a net income loss of $120 million [7][10] - For the full year, Nebius expects revenue between $500 million to $550 million, with a projected annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $900 million to $1.1 billion, indicating strong growth potential [8] - Management anticipates achieving an ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, which would be seven times its current ARR [9] Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Nebius stock is currently valued at nearly 60 times sales, which is considered expensive, especially given its unprofitability [11] - The company's market capitalization stands at $22 billion [12] - The future performance of Nebius stock in 2026 will largely depend on market sentiment towards AI, with potential for significant price movement based on investor confidence [14]

Core Insights - The next wave of AI investment may favor smaller infrastructure companies rather than large mega-cap stocks as demand shifts towards cloud capacity, compute power, and AI-ready data centers [1] Company Overview - Nebius (NBIS), based in Amsterdam, offers full-stack cloud and GPU-accelerated AI infrastructure across Europe and North America, focusing on sustainable data centers and AI-optimized compute clusters [4] - The company emerged from the restructuring of the former Yandex infrastructure business and has expanded into autonomous vehicles and education technology [4] Market Performance - Nebius is valued at approximately $23 billion and has seen a significant stock performance, gaining around 225% year-to-date, with shares peaking above $140 in October [5] - The stock's rally was partly driven by Nvidia's disclosed stake in the company and new contracts with major tech firms like Microsoft and Meta [5] Valuation Metrics - Nebius currently trades at a trailing price-to-sales multiple in the mid-50s, significantly higher than the sector median of around 4x and its own historical average of 24x [6] - The market is pricing Nebius as a potential cornerstone of AI infrastructure, indicating high expectations for future growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nebius is currently viewed as a risky investment due to its high debt levels and the significant capital required for its aggressive data center expansion plans [1][8]. Financial Position - At the end of the previous quarter, Nebius had $4.8 billion in cash and $4.6 billion in debt, indicating a tight financial position as it plans to construct a 1 GW data center, which is estimated to cost $10 billion, plus an additional $20 billion to $30 billion for chips [1]. - The company is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 64, significantly higher than the Nasdaq Composite's ratio of 5.5, suggesting that the stock is expensive relative to its sales [2]. Growth Potential - Nebius has a backlog exceeding $20 billion, which is expected to convert into revenue next year and beyond, supporting its growth trajectory [3]. - The company plans to increase its connected data center power capacity from 220 MW to a range of 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of next year, indicating a substantial expansion in capacity [4]. Stock Performance - Despite a remarkable revenue growth of 437% to $302 million in the first nine months of 2025, Nebius has lost about one-third of its value since reaching a 52-week high on October 10 [5]. - The stock has experienced significant volatility, with analysts suggesting that while there may be upside potential, the stock's recent pullback raises concerns [6][9]. Funding Strategy - To finance its data center construction, Nebius will need to take on more debt and sell additional shares, utilizing corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity as sources of funding [8]. - Investors should anticipate share dilution and increased interest expenses due to the higher debt load [8]. Market Context - The demand for AI data center infrastructure is rapidly growing, with Nebius being one of the key players in this space, although concerns about debt-fueled financing are emerging [9]. - In contrast, Dell Technologies is highlighted as a more stable investment in the AI infrastructure sector, with a significant market share and anticipated revenue growth in its AI server business [10][11].

Group 1 - The article promotes BAD BEAT Investing, highlighting a significant discount on their trial price from $199 to $59 for a limited time [1] - BAD BEAT Investing has a proven track record, including a public Buy rating on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) in the mid-$40s, which led to a major increase in share prices [1] - The investment team consists of 7 analysts with diverse expertise, focusing on both long and short trades, and has maintained an average of 95% long and 5% short positions since May 2020 [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes teaching investors to become proficient traders through a comprehensive playbook, providing in-depth research and clear entry and exit targets [1] - Benefits of BAD BEAT Investing include access to well-researched trade ideas, chat rooms, daily analyst summaries, and options trading education [1] - The company aims to save time for investors by delivering high-quality research and actionable insights [1]

Group 1: Investment Performance - Crossroads Capital Investment Partners, LP achieved a net appreciation of 6.4% in Q3 2025, resulting in a year-to-date return of 34.1% net through Q3 2025 [1] - The fund has compounded at a gross rate of 21.4% and a net rate of 17.3% since its inception [1] Group 2: Nebius Group N.V. Overview - Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) is a technology company based in Amsterdam, with a one-month return of 4.89% and a remarkable 230.08% increase in share value over the last 52 weeks [2] - As of December 22, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. shares closed at $93.23, with a market capitalization of $23.476 billion [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Nebius Group N.V. experienced a significant stock price increase following the announcement of a multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, valued at over $19 billion, which surpassed Nebius' pre-announcement market capitalization [3] - The revenue from this agreement is expected to provide substantial visibility into Nebius' future earnings potential [3] Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - At the end of Q3 2025, 65 hedge fund portfolios held shares of Nebius Group N.V., an increase from 45 in the previous quarter [4] - While Nebius Group N.V. shows potential as an investment, the company is not listed among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, and other AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has established itself as a significant player in the AI cloud and infrastructure market, driven by high demand for GPU capacity and long-term contracts with major tech companies [1][8] - The company signed two major contracts: one with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, and another with Meta worth approximately $3 billion over five years [1][8] Demand and Capacity - Demand for Nebius' services continues to exceed supply, with all available capacity sold out each quarter [2] - New capacity is immediately absorbed by customers, indicating strong market demand [2] - Nebius aims to expand to 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power and up to 1 gigawatt of connected capacity by the end of 2026 [2] Revenue Projections - The company expects to achieve an annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, with over half of this target already booked [2] - However, Nebius has revised its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $500 million to $550 million, down from a previous estimate of $450 million to $630 million [3] Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - Nebius has increased its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion [4] - The elevated capital expenditure levels present a risk if revenue growth does not keep pace with capital intensity [4] Customer Concentration Risk - The contracts with Microsoft and Meta increase customer concentration risk, as a significant portion of future revenue growth is expected from these two clients starting in 2026 [5] - The reliance on a small number of large customers could significantly impact Nebius' financial results [5] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) reported a revenue backlog of $55.6 billion, up 271% year over year, driven by long-term agreements with major customers [6] - Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is expanding its cloud infrastructure and partnerships, benefiting from collaborations with NVIDIA [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Nebius shares have increased by 212.3% over the past year, outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry, which grew by 30.7% [9] - The company's valuation appears overvalued, with a Price/Book ratio of 4.68X compared to the industry average of 3.83X [10]