Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. shares are experiencing a downward trend following the company's earnings report, with traders eyeing a potential support level at $98.50, which was previously established in October [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Nebius Group's stock is currently trading lower, prompting traders to look for a bottom around $98.50, a level that previously acted as support [1]. - The stock had rallied after finding support at $98.50 in October, indicating a potential for a similar rebound if the price reaches this level again [1][4]. Group 2: Trader Behavior - Some traders who sold their shares are experiencing remorse and are considering repurchasing at the same price they sold, indicating a psychological aspect to trading decisions [3]. - If Nebius continues to trend lower and hits the $98.50 mark again, a significant number of buy orders could emerge, potentially creating support at that level [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Stocks often rally off support levels when buyers become anxious and start bidding against each other, which can lead to an upward price movement [5]. - Successful traders monitor how stocks behave after reaching important support levels, positioning themselves accordingly for potential reversals [6].

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [1][2] - The news team operates from key finance and investing hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] - Proactive focuses on medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [2][3] Group 2 - The team delivers news and insights across various sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4][5] - All content published by Proactive is edited and authored by humans, ensuring adherence to best practices in content production and search engine optimization [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has been identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with a public buy rating issued at $46 in early July, and shares have continued to rise since then [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Nebius Group N.V. is highlighted as a promising investment, with a focus on long-term growth potential [2]. - The investment team, Quad 7 Capital, consists of seven analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes both short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [2]. - The team aims to educate investors on market dynamics and trading strategies, providing in-depth research with clear entry and exit targets [2]. Group 3: Benefits of Membership - Membership in BAD BEAT Investing offers various benefits, including access to well-researched trade ideas, chat rooms, daily analyst summaries, and options trading education [2].

Core Insights - Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares increased by 5.8% to $103.53 despite a larger-than-expected net income loss and revenue miss for Q3, driven by a $3 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms [1] - The company recently secured a $19 billion deal with Microsoft in September, indicating strong partnerships in the AI sector [1] Stock Performance - NBIS shares have pulled back from an October 10 record high of $141.10 but are supported by a $100 floor and an ascending 50-day moving average [2] - The stock has surged 300% since January, reflecting significant growth [2] - Short interest has decreased by 5.2%, accounting for 10.9% of the stock's total available float, or 22.54 million shares, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] Volatility and Trading - Nebius Group stock tends to outperform options traders' volatility expectations, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 87 out of 100 [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Nasdaq down over 2%, S&P 500 down 0.2%, and Dow Jones up 0.16% [1] - AI cloud computing stocks collectively weakened, with CoreWeave dropping 11% post-earnings, Nebius $NBIS down over 3%, and Oracle declining over 2% [1][2] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia fell over 2%, while Tesla and Meta approached a 1% decline [2] Group 2 - SoftBank sold 32.1 million shares of Nvidia for $5.83 billion, with no disclosed reason for the sale [3] - SoftBank committed to an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI, to be completed by December through Vision Fund 2 [3] - CoreWeave revised its annual revenue forecast downward due to delays in data center projects, with operating profit margin decreasing from 21% to 16% year-over-year [3] - Nebius reported third-quarter revenue below expectations and signed a $3 billion partnership with Meta to provide AI infrastructure services over five years [3]

Core Insights - Amsterdam-based Nebius Group (NBIS) has entered into a $3 billion agreement with Meta Platforms to provide AI infrastructure over the next five years, highlighting the competitive landscape in the AI sector [1] Company Summary - Nebius Group is positioned to enhance its capabilities and market presence through this significant partnership with Meta Platforms, which reflects the growing demand for AI infrastructure [1] - The agreement indicates a strategic move by Meta Platforms to bolster its AI capabilities, emphasizing the importance of securing robust AI infrastructure in the tech industry [1] Industry Summary - The deal underscores the intensifying global race among tech companies to secure advanced AI infrastructure, which is becoming increasingly critical for innovation and competitive advantage [1] - The partnership is indicative of broader trends in the technology sector, where collaboration and investment in AI are essential for maintaining leadership in the market [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 group revenue reached $146 million, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 355% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 39% [7] - Annualized run rate revenue for the core business at the end of September was $551 million, with the core infrastructure business growing 400% year-over-year and 40% sequentially [7] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the core infrastructure business expanded quarter-over-quarter to nearly 19% [7] - The company raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion, reflecting strong demand outlook [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core infrastructure business accounted for nearly 90% of total revenue, with significant growth attributed to capacity constraints limiting revenue growth [7] - The company sold out all available capacity in Q3, indicating strong demand for its services [2][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed a major deal with Meta valued at approximately $3 billion over the next five years, following a previous deal with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion [3][12] - The demand environment is described as overwhelming, with a 70% quarter-on-quarter expansion in pipeline generation [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building its core AI cloud business while also pursuing large long-term deals to support growth [3][4] - Plans to grow contracted power to 2.5 gigawatts by the end of 2026, up from 1 gigawatt previously discussed [4][10] - The launch of new enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0, called Aether, aims to expand the addressable market opportunity [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving an annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand and capacity expansion [6][17] - The company remains focused on maintaining healthy margins and a sustainable business model while navigating the AI revolution [42][63] Other Important Information - The company is actively evaluating financing options, including corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, to support aggressive growth plans [8][32] - The company plans to file a prospectus supplement for an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you tell us more about the new Meta deal? - The Meta deal is approximately $3 billion, limited by available capacity, indicating potential for larger deals if capacity were available [12][13] Question: What is included in the $7 billion-$9 billion ARR target? - The target includes contracted power and demand from AI startups and enterprises, with more than half already booked [15][17] Question: What is the timeline for infrastructure build-out? - The company is ramping up capacity in various regions, with new data centers expected to come online in 2026 [18][19] Question: How will the Microsoft and Meta deals impact revenue? - Revenue from Microsoft will ramp up in 2026, while Meta's deployments are expected to conclude in the next three months [21] Question: What does the demand environment look like? - Demand is accelerating, with a 70% increase in pipeline generation in Q3 [22] Question: What are the constraints to growing capacity? - The main bottleneck is securing power and supply chain issues, which the company is actively addressing [38] Question: How is the enterprise initiative progressing? - The company is making strides in becoming enterprise-ready, with new functionalities and compliance certifications [48][49] Question: What is the opportunity around the Token Factory? - The Token Factory aims to serve a broader set of customers, enabling enterprises to build AI applications at scale [50][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 group revenue reached $146 million, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 355% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 39% [7] - Annualized run rate revenue for the core business at the end of September was $551 million, with the core infrastructure business growing 400% year-over-year and 40% sequentially [7][9] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the core infrastructure business expanded to nearly 19% quarter-over-quarter [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core infrastructure business accounted for nearly 90% of total revenue, with significant growth attributed to capacity constraints limiting revenue growth [7][9] - The company sold out all available capacity in Q3, indicating strong demand and a bottleneck in revenue growth due to capacity limitations [2][4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed a major deal with Meta valued at approximately $3 billion over the next five years, following a previous deal with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion [3][12] - The demand environment is characterized by overwhelming interest in capacity, with a 70% quarter-on-quarter expansion in pipeline generation [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building its core AI cloud business while also pursuing large long-term deals to support growth [3][4] - Plans to grow contracted power to 2.5 gigawatts by the end of 2026, up from 1 gigawatt previously discussed, with significant investments in capacity and infrastructure [4][10] - The launch of new enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0, called Aether, and the inference platform Nebius Token Factory aims to expand the addressable market [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving an annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand and capacity growth [6][17] - The company remains focused on maintaining healthy margins and a sustainable business model while navigating the rapid growth in the AI sector [42][63] Other Important Information - The company is raising its 2025 CapEx guidance from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion to support aggressive growth plans [10] - The company is actively evaluating financing options, including corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, to support its growth strategy [8][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you tell us more about the new Meta deal? - The Meta deal is approximately $3 billion, limited by available capacity, indicating strong demand for larger contracts [12][13] Question: What is included in the $7 billion-$9 billion ARR target? - The target includes contracted power and existing capacity, with more than half already booked [15][17] Question: What is the timeline for infrastructure build-out? - The company is ramping up capacity in various regions, with new data centers expected to come online in 2026 [18][19] Question: How will Microsoft and Meta revenue contribute in 2025? - Microsoft revenue will ramp up in 2026, while Meta is expected to reach full revenue run rate in 2026 [21] Question: What does the demand environment look like? - Demand is accelerating, with a 70% increase in pipeline generation in Q3 [22] Question: Why is incremental ARR down? - Incremental ARR decreased due to capacity constraints, but is expected to increase significantly in Q4 [24] Question: How is the U.K. facility progressing? - The U.K. facility is progressing well, with strong demand leading to pre-sold capacity [35][36] Question: What is the company's approach to financing? - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined capital structure while exploring various financing options [32][34] Question: How is the enterprise initiative ramping up? - The company is making strides in becoming enterprise-ready with new product launches and compliance certifications [48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 group revenue reached $146 million, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 355% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 39% [9] - Annualized run rate revenue for the core business at the end of September was $551 million, with the core infrastructure business accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue and growing 400% year-over-year [9] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the core infrastructure business expanded quarter-over-quarter to nearly 19% [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core infrastructure business was the primary driver of revenue growth, with significant contributions from mega deals with Microsoft and Meta [4][9] - The company sold out all available capacity, indicating that revenue growth was limited only by the capacity brought online [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand environment in Q3 was described as very strong, with a 70% quarter-on-quarter expansion in pipeline generation [24] - The company expects to achieve a contracted power of 2.5 gigawatts by the end of 2026, up from 1 gigawatt discussed in the previous earnings call [5][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building its core AI cloud business while also pursuing large long-term deals with major clients [4][6] - Investments are being made to secure critical infrastructure, including hardware and power, with a CapEx guidance increase from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion for 2025 [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving an annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand and accelerated capacity growth [6][19] - The company remains focused on maintaining healthy margins and a sustainable business model while navigating the rapidly growing AI market [44] Other Important Information - The company launched its new enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0, called Aether, and a new inference platform called Nebius Token Factory, aimed at expanding its addressable market [6] - The company is actively evaluating financing options, including corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, to support its growth plans [10][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you tell us more about the new Meta deal? - The new deal with Meta is approximately $3 billion, limited by the capacity available. The company is optimistic about signing more large deals in the future [14] Question: What exactly is in the $7 billion-$9 billion ARR target? - The target includes contracted power and demand from AI startups and enterprises, with more than half already booked [17][19] Question: What gives you confidence that you can reach your 2.5 gigawatts goal of contracted capacity? - The company is ramping up capacity in various regions, including the U.K. and Israel, and has secured a roadmap for 2.5 gigawatts of power [20][21] Question: How should we think about revenue contribution from Microsoft and Meta deals for this year and going forward? - Revenue from Microsoft will ramp up in 2026, while Meta's deployments are expected to conclude in the next three months, with full revenue run rate anticipated in 2026 [22] Question: What does the overall demand environment look like in Q4 and into the next year? - The demand profile is accelerating, with a significant increase in pipeline generation and strong confidence in future growth [24] Question: How are you thinking about CapEx and what is your philosophy on CapEx spending? - The company plans to secure as much capacity as possible, with a focus on building infrastructure in line with visible demand [27][29] Question: Is there any chance that GPUs are oversupplied in the coming year? - The company believes the market will remain supply constrained at least until 2026, with a conservative approach to capital spending [65]

Core Insights - Nebius, a Dutch AI cloud service provider, reported a revenue surge of 355% year-over-year for Q3, reaching $146.1 million, although this fell short of analyst expectations of $157 million [1] - The company announced a significant five-year partnership with Meta valued at approximately $3 billion to provide AI infrastructure services [1] - Despite the revenue growth, Nebius experienced a substantial increase in capital expenditures, leading to a quarterly loss exceeding $100 million, compared to a loss of $39.7 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - For Q3, Nebius's revenue was $146.1 million, a 355% increase year-over-year, but below the expected $157 million [1] - The company's quarterly loss expanded to over $100 million due to increased capital expenditures, which rose from $172.1 million in the previous year to $955.5 million [3] - As of the latest closing, Nebius's market capitalization has tripled to $27.61 billion this year [1] Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with Meta is the second major contract Nebius has secured with a large-scale cloud service provider, following a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft in September [1] - Nebius plans to deploy the necessary computing resources for the Meta contract within the next three months, indicating a strong demand for AI computing power [1] Market Outlook - Nebius's CEO, Arkady Volozh, forecasts that the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) could reach between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026, with the current ARR at approximately $551 million [2] - The demand for AI computing power remains robust, with Nebius's entire cloud service capacity sold out for Q3 and nearly sold out for the current quarter [2] Investment Strategy - To secure GPU procurement, land, and power supply, Nebius is increasing its investment, with capital expenditures significantly rising in Q3 [3] - The company plans to pursue "aggressive expansion" through corporate bonds, asset-backed financing, and equity financing in the coming year [3]