Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of gaining out-of-consensus information to achieve investment alpha, highlighting the strategic insights provided by Novo Capital in the context of Central Asian banking [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Novo Capital was established to deliver strategic insights and analysis for clients in the private banking sector, leveraging the author's experience in corporate valuation and due diligence [1]. - The company aims to guide long-term investment strategies through accurate forecasting amidst global market volatility [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The article suggests that the current investment landscape requires a resilient methodology to navigate market fluctuations, which is a focus area for Novo Capital [1]. - The emphasis on discussing investment ideas reflects a broader trend in the industry towards collaborative analysis and sharing of unique insights among professionals [1].

James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market ...

Core Insights - The race for artificial intelligence supremacy among major tech companies has intensified since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI and Microsoft, with other companies like Alphabet also investing heavily to catch up [1] - The ultimate leaders in the AI large language model (LLM) space remain unpredictable, similar to the internet boom of the late 1990s [1] AI Investment Strategies - Investors can benefit from the AI revolution by focusing on "pick and shovel" stocks rather than trying to identify the ultimate leader in the LLM race, akin to merchants during the California Gold Rush [2] Company Summaries CoreWeave - CoreWeave specializes in cloud computing, providing high-end GPU computing power specifically for AI applications, distinguishing itself from traditional cloud services [3] - The company has secured a $2.6 billion debt financing facility and has $25 billion in capital commitments, indicating strong demand and financial backing [4] - Recent share price fluctuations were influenced by debt concerns and the expiration of the IPO lock-up period, but insider selling is expected to decrease moving forward [6][7] Nebius Group - Nebius Group is a leader in AI infrastructure, offering a cloud platform designed for intensive AI workloads and vertical integration of proprietary software and hardware [8] - The company has a significant partnership with Nvidia, ensuring priority access to GPUs, and has secured a $17.4 billion multi-year deal with Microsoft, which could grow to $19.4 billion [9][10] - Following the Microsoft deal, Nebius' market cap was surpassed by the contract value, suggesting strong future revenue growth potential [11] Astera Labs - Astera Labs manufactures high-performance semiconductors and software for AI applications, addressing data transmission bottlenecks in AI data centers [13] - The company has established strong partnerships with industry leaders like Nvidia, Intel, and AMD, positioning it well within the AI infrastructure space [14] - Analysts predict double-digit growth for Astera Labs through 2026, with the company consistently exceeding Wall Street expectations since its public debut [15]

Core Insights - Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) experienced significant growth in 2025, particularly in its core AI cloud infrastructure business, leading to a stock surge of 202.2% for the year [1]. - The company reported Q2 sales of $105 million but raised its annual revenue run rate guidance to up to $1.1 billion by the end of 2025, indicating a potential tripling of revenue in a short time [3]. - Major agreements with hyperscalers, including a $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft and a $3 billion deal with Meta Platforms, signal strong demand for Nebius' AI infrastructure [4][5]. Business Expansion - Nebius is not only focused on AI cloud infrastructure but is also expanding into three related business segments: Toloka for AI data needs, educational technology, and Avride, which manufactures autonomous vehicles and delivery robots [6]. - The growth potential from these additional segments provides investors with optionality, particularly with Avride showing significant upside potential [7]. - Despite the promising outlook, the market has already priced in substantial growth for Nebius, necessitating successful execution to justify its current valuation [8].

Group 1: AI Race and Market Dynamics - The AI race among major tech companies, initiated by OpenAI's ChatGPT, has led to significant investments and competition in large language models (LLMs) [1] - The unpredictability of LLM leaders mirrors the internet boom of the late 1990s, where dominant players like Yahoo! and Netscape were eventually surpassed [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors can benefit from the AI revolution by focusing on "pick and shovel" stocks rather than trying to identify the ultimate LLM leader [2] - Historical context from the California Gold Rush illustrates that suppliers often profit more consistently than the primary players [2] Group 3: CoreWeave Overview - CoreWeave is a specialized cloud computing provider focused on delivering high-performance computing power through GPUs, catering specifically to AI needs [3] - The company has established relationships with major tech firms like IBM and Microsoft, and has a strong partnership with Nvidia for GPU access [3] Group 4: CoreWeave's Recent Performance - CoreWeave's stock experienced a significant drop from approximately $180 to around $90 due to debt concerns and the expiration of the IPO lock-up period [4][5] - The company secured a $2.6 billion debt financing facility, alleviating some concerns regarding its financial health [6] Group 5: Nebius Group Overview - Nebius Group is a leading AI infrastructure company providing cloud platforms and services tailored for intensive AI workloads [9][10] - The company has secured significant investments from major tech firms and has a competitive edge through vertical integration of its AI software and hardware [11] Group 6: Nebius' Strategic Partnerships - Nebius has a strong partnership with Nvidia, ensuring priority access to the latest GPUs, which is crucial for running advanced AI models [13] - A recent multi-year deal with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion highlights Nebius' growing significance in the AI infrastructure space [14][15] Group 7: Astera Labs Overview - Astera Labs manufactures high-performance semiconductors designed to enhance data transmission in AI data centers, addressing potential bottlenecks [20] - The company has established strong partnerships with industry leaders like Nvidia, Intel, and AMD, positioning itself well in the AI market [21] Group 8: Astera Labs' Growth Potential - Analysts predict double-digit growth for Astera Labs through 2026, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure [22] - The company has consistently exceeded Wall Street expectations, showcasing its strong performance and growth trajectory [25]

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) experienced significant volatility in its share price during the second half of 2025, influenced by fluctuating AI sentiment and investor uncertainty regarding the future of neocloud operators [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The shares of Nebius Group N.V. saw wild swings, indicating a high level of market speculation and investor reaction to AI trends [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The performance of neocloud operators, including Nebius Group, is closely tied to the broader sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence, which has been variable [1]

分组1 - DLocal has successfully turned around after a volatile IPO period, with stock stabilization and strong operational performance [1] - The company reported impressive revenue growth driven by increased merchant adoption and transaction volumes, exceeding sales and earnings estimates in Q3 [1][2] - Earnings are projected to grow by over 21% this year, indicating robust financial health [1] 分组2 - DLocal is recognized as a compelling fintech growth story in emerging markets, facilitating local payment methods for global merchants across Latin America, Africa, and Asia [2] - The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16.6, which is a notable discount compared to many fintech peers, despite faster top-line growth [6] - Analysts have a consensus price target implying nearly 14% upside potential from its previous close, reflecting positive market sentiment [6] 分组3 - The stock has maintained key support levels near $12, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution, which is a positive technical indicator [7] - DLocal could benefit from broader themes such as dollar weakness and global diversification flows, enhancing its market position this year [7]

Core Insights - AST SpaceMobile is positioned to experience significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 1,200% increase in sales to $57.3 million in 2025, followed by a further 311% growth to $235.6 million in 2026 [4] - The company's strategy of partnering with over 50 global mobile network providers, covering nearly 3 billion cellular subscribers, is expected to facilitate a rapid increase in revenue without the need to build a competing network [2] - AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites aim to provide 4G and 5G services using existing smartphone technology, offering a seamless transition for wireless operators and potentially revolutionizing global broadband coverage [3] Group 1: Company Overview - AST SpaceMobile's current valuation stands at $33.3 billion, which raises concerns about the potential for error in its high-growth projections [7] - The company has successfully secured partnerships with major wireless operators, which is crucial for its growth strategy [2] Group 2: Market Context - The stock market has seen substantial gains, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 45%, 78%, and 122% respectively from the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2025 [6] - The overall market sentiment is driven by the performance of growth stocks and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector is experiencing significant growth, and there are numerous investment opportunities available, particularly in specific stocks that are well-positioned for the future [1]. Group 1: Key Companies in AI Investment - **Nvidia** is identified as the top AI stock for 2026, central to AI infrastructure with its GPUs, which are the leading option for parallel processing [2]. The company anticipates global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating strong future performance [3]. - **Broadcom** focuses on application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) rather than general-purpose GPUs, which can outperform GPUs for specific tasks at a lower cost, suggesting significant growth potential in this segment [4][6]. - **AMD** is gaining traction in the GPU market, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% in its data center division revenues over the next three to five years, indicating a strong investment opportunity [7][8]. - **Taiwan Semiconductor** is the leading third-party chip manufacturer, essential for the AI buildout, making it a neutral investment option as it benefits from the overall growth in AI technology [9][10]. - **Alphabet** has shown unexpected success with its large language model, Gemini, and is expected to maintain momentum due to its strong advertising business [11][12]. - **Meta Platforms** is investing in AI capabilities for its social media platforms and exploring new products like AI-enabled glasses, which could provide new revenue streams [13][14]. - **Amazon** is expected to perform better in 2026, driven by growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which supports AI model training and operations [15]. Group 2: Emerging and Smaller Companies - **SoundHound AI** combines generative AI with voice recognition technology, showing rapid growth potential if widely adopted [16][17]. - **Nebius** is a data center operator focused on the AI market, with an expected revenue run rate of $551 million in Q3 2025, projected to reach $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, indicating substantial upside potential [18][19]. - **Applied Digital** operates a data center model that leases space to clients, providing long-term visibility into earnings through 15-year leases, representing a less risky investment with significant growth potential [20][21].

Core Insights - Nebius is projected to experience significant growth by 2026, with expectations of revenue reaching between $7 billion and $9 billion, up from an annual run rate of $551 million in Q3 2023, which represents a year-over-year growth of 355% [4] - The company has increased its contract power from 1 gigawatt to 2.5 gigawatts to meet the rising demand for AI computing power [4] - Nebius, spun out from Yandex, has been successful in the AI-focused cloud computing sector and is expected to follow a growth trajectory similar to that of CoreWeave [3][7] Financial Metrics - Nebius currently trades at 64 times sales, which may seem high, but the forward sales metric is more appropriate given the anticipated growth [5] - The market capitalization of Nebius is approximately $25 billion, with a current stock price of $0.52 [11] - The gross margin for Nebius is reported at -1312.43%, indicating a significant loss, which is common for companies in the market-capturing phase [11] Market Context - Both Nebius and CoreWeave are in a rapid expansion phase, focusing on capturing market share rather than immediate profitability [9] - The demand for computing capacity is currently unreal, and profitability for both companies is not expected for a few years [9] - The success of Nebius and CoreWeave will depend on the market's willingness to invest in growth-oriented companies, which could lead to substantial stock price increases if the appetite for risk remains [12]