Core Insights - The Fortune Teller is a team of two analysts with over 30 years of combined market experience [1] - The team includes a former licensed investment advisor with a background in asset management, holding degrees in Accounting & Economics and Computer Sciences, as well as MBAs [1] - They lead the investing group Wheel of Fortune, which shares actionable trading ideas across various asset classes, sectors, and industries [1] Service Features - The service aims to provide a comprehensive resource for investment and portfolio ideas while educating subscribers [1] - It includes the Funds Macro Portfolio, focusing on ETFs and CEFs for less active investors [1] - The Single Macro Portfolio is designed for more active investors, focusing on single equities [1] - Additional features include educational content and a live chat room for discussions among investors and The Fortune Teller [1]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management's (NLY) performance is significantly influenced by mortgage rates, which have recently declined to the lowest level of 2025, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.26% as of September 17, down from 6.43% the previous week and 6.91% at the start of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Market Dynamics - Housing affordability challenges are decreasing due to lower mortgage rates, leading to increased loan demand and positive trends in mortgage originations and refinancing [2] - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% on September 17, 2025, with potential for two additional reductions by year-end, which will enhance NLY's net interest income (NII) [3] - NLY's NII increased to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, compared to $47.1 million in the same period a year ago [3] Group 2: Portfolio and Investment Strategy - NLY's diversified investment strategy includes Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), residential credit, and mortgage servicing rights (MSR), with a total portfolio of $89.5 billion as of June 30, 2025 [6] - The MSR portfolio provides attractive yields and hedges against mortgage basis volatility, contributing to more consistent returns [7] - The company's focus on residential credit supports stable returns across various economic scenarios, having exited commercial real estate and Middle Market Lending businesses [8][9] Group 3: Financial Position and Returns - NLY maintains a strong liquidity position with $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS [10][11] - The company offers a dividend yield of 12.9%, higher than the industry average of 12%, and has a $1.5 billion share repurchase program [11][15] - NLY's shares have gained 18.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 5.9% [16] Group 4: Valuation and Growth Estimates - NLY is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 1.13X, higher than the industry average of 1.08X [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 sales implies year-over-year growth of 463.4%, with earnings growth estimates of 7.0% for 2025 [23][26]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have decreased to 6.26%, the lowest since October 2024, driven by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][11] - The reduction in mortgage rates has led to a significant increase in mortgage loan application volume by 43% and a 58% rise in refinancing activity [2] - The favorable environment for mortgage rates is expected to benefit mortgage REITs (mREITs) such as Ellington Financial, Annaly Capital Management, and Orchid Island Capital [3][4] Mortgage Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's indication of two additional rate cuts by the end of 2025 suggests further declines in mortgage rates, which will likely enhance mREIT profitability and asset prices [4] - As net interest spreads expand, mREITs are positioned for stronger profitability and increased dividend payouts, appealing to income-focused investors [5] Company-Specific Insights Ellington Financial (EFC) - EFC is diversified across residential and commercial mortgage loans, contributing to stable growth and income [6][7] - The company employs dynamic hedging strategies and maintains a balanced portfolio to navigate market volatility [8] - EFC's 2025 earnings estimates remain at $1.74 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 19.2% [9] Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY manages an $89.5 billion portfolio, focusing on diversified investment strategies to reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns [12][13] - The company's net interest income (NII) surged to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, up from $47.1 million year-over-year, positioning it for book value gains [14] - NLY's 2025 earnings estimates are stable at $2.89 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 7% [15] Orchid Island Capital (ORC) - ORC focuses on Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), targeting traditional and structured Agency RMBS [18][19] - The company's NII increased to $42.9 million in the first half of 2025, with expectations for further improvement due to favorable mortgage rates [21] - ORC's 2025 earnings estimates remain at 63 cents per share, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 450% [21]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance and analysis of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) stock, comparing it with Rithm Capital, suggesting that investors interested in mREIT should consider holding Rithm instead of NLY [1] - Sensor Unlimited, an economist with a PhD, has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry for the past decade, focusing on asset allocation and ETFs related to these sectors [2] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of dynamic asset allocation to generate high income and growth while managing isolated risks, offering two model portfolios for different investment strategies [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment analysis of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) and compares it with Rithm Capital, suggesting that investors interested in mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) should consider holding Rithm instead of NLY [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is analyzed in the context of its performance against Rithm Capital, indicating a preference for Rithm for mREIT investments [1]. - The analysis highlights the importance of dynamic asset allocation in generating high income and growth while managing isolated risks [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst, Sensor Unlimited, has a PhD in financial economics and has spent a decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [2]. - The focus of the analyst's work includes asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, financial sectors, and housing markets [2].

Group 1 - The article promotes a portfolio strategy that generates income without the need for selling assets, aimed at making retirement investing less stressful and more straightforward [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of community and education in investing, suggesting that individuals should not invest alone and can benefit from a supportive group [2] - The service offers features such as model portfolios with buy/sell alerts, preferred and baby bond portfolios for conservative investors, and regular market updates [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the service philosophy includes a vibrant and active chat with access to service leaders, enhancing the community aspect of investing [2] - It highlights the potential benefits for homeowners and contrasts their pride in living locations with that of renters [2]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. has announced a common stock dividend of $0.70 per share for the third quarter of 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Company Announcement - The dividend of $0.70 per share reflects the company's ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders [1] Financial Performance - The announcement indicates a stable dividend payout, which may suggest consistent financial performance and cash flow generation by the company [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses newly listed fixed-income securities on the exchange, focusing on Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) [1] - The analysis includes features of the investing group Trade With Beta, which offers frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, and an actively managed portfolio [1] - The article emphasizes that all active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and engage in discussions with sophisticated traders and investors [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to Annaly Capital Management or the fixed-income securities discussed [2]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have increased by 20.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 7.1% and its peers AGNC Investment (11.1% growth) and Arbor Realty Trust (1.3% decline) [1] Performance Drivers - Strategic Positioning: Annaly's disciplined diversification across the mortgage finance landscape, with a $89.5 billion investment portfolio as of June 30, 2025, primarily in $79.5 billion of highly liquid Agency MBS, enhances its risk-adjusted returns [5][6] - Adaptability: The company's structure allows it to adjust to market changes, with MSRs gaining value in rising interest rate environments, offsetting declines in agency MBS valuations [6][7] - Mortgage Rate Impact: Declining mortgage rates are improving housing affordability, increasing loan demand, and boosting net interest income (NII) to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, up from $47.1 million a year ago [8][9] Financial Position - Strong Liquidity: As of June 30, 2025, Annaly had $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, supporting its liquidity during adverse market conditions [11] - Dividend Yield: The company maintains a monthly dividend payout with a yield of 13.2% and a payout ratio of 99% [11] - Share Repurchase Plan: Annaly has a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan, which has not yet been utilized, but its liquidity position supports future capital distributions [13] Investment Considerations - Income Opportunity: Annaly is positioned as an attractive option for income-focused investors due to its high dividend yield and diversified portfolio that mitigates interest rate volatility [14] - Valuation Concerns: The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible (P/TB) multiple of 1.1X, higher than the industry average of 1.07X, suggesting a premium valuation [15]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) is positioned as a more favorable investment compared to Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) due to its robust liquidity, sustainable dividend, and improving financial outlook, while ABR faces challenges with weak liquidity and a recent dividend cut [1][21]. Group 1: Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY focuses on enhancing liquidity and reducing leverage, with total assets available for financing amounting to $7.4 billion, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2][10]. - The company has a monthly dividend yield of 13.3% and a payout ratio of 99%, having increased its dividend only once in the past five years [3][10]. - NLY's investment strategy includes traditional Agency MBSs for downside protection and investments in non-agency and credit-focused asset classes to enhance returns [4]. - As of March 31, 2025, NLY's investment portfolio totaled $89.5 billion, and the company is acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to strengthen its position [5]. - With declining mortgage rates, NLY is expected to see improvements in book value and net interest spread, positively impacting its financials [6]. - NLY shares have appreciated by 23.4% this year, while trading at a forward P/E of 7.14X, lower than its five-year median of 7.22X, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to the industry average [9][13][15]. Group 2: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) - ABR primarily focuses on originating and servicing loans for multi-family, single-family, and commercial real estate assets, benefiting from improved housing affordability due to lower mortgage rates [7]. - The current dividend yield for ABR is 10.15%, with a payout ratio of 92%, but the company reduced its dividend by 30.3% to 30 cents per share in May 2025 due to weak liquidity [8][10]. - As of June 30, 2025, ABR had cash and cash equivalents of $504 million against long-term debt of $5.1 billion, raising concerns about its liquidity and capital distribution sustainability [8]. - ABR shares have declined by 6.6% this year, and it is trading at a forward P/E of 9.78X, which is higher than its five-year median of 8.76X, indicating a premium valuation [9][13][15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABR indicates year-over-year sales declines of 17.6% for 2025 and a drop of 36.8% in earnings for the same year, with EPS estimates moving downward over the past 60 days [16][20].