Core Viewpoint - Dividend investors should be cautious about over-focusing on high dividend yields, as seen in the comparison between Annaly Capital Management and W.P. Carey, where a lower yield may provide more reliable income over time [1]. Company Overview - Annaly Capital Management operates as a mortgage REIT, purchasing pooled mortgages that are traded as bond-like securities, which are influenced by interest rates and housing market conditions [2]. - The business model of Annaly involves significant leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses, depending on the volatility of mortgage securities [4]. Dividend Analysis - Annaly's 14% dividend yield is not reliable for investors seeking consistent income, as both its dividend and stock price have declined over time, indicating potential risks for those who rely on dividends for living expenses [5][7]. - In contrast, W.P. Carey, despite cutting its dividend in late 2023, has a history of 24 consecutive annual increases and has resumed increasing its dividend quarterly since the cut, suggesting a more stable income stream for investors [8][9]. Business Model Comparison - W.P. Carey's business model is more traditional, focusing on physical properties that generate rental income, which allows for potential growth in dividends over time, contrasting with Annaly's total return investment approach that relies on dividend reinvestment [9][10]. - The recent dividend cut by W.P. Carey was a strategic decision to exit the struggling office sector, positioning the company for long-term growth and making it potentially more attractive for investors seeking reliable income [8].

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) benefits from a well-diversified capital allocation strategy, with an investment portfolio totaling $84.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, which includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1][9] Investment Strategy - The diversified investment strategy is expected to contribute significantly to long-term growth and stability, allowing the company to capitalize on various opportunities while mitigating risks from overexposure to specific areas [2] - In 2022, NLY divested its Middle Market Lending portfolio and exited the commercial real estate sector, reallocating capital to enhance its core housing finance strategy and focus on residential credit, MSR, and Agency MBS [3] - The inclusion of MSRs is particularly advantageous as their value tends to rise with increasing interest rates, providing a hedge against declines in agency MBS values, which may lead to more consistent returns [4] Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) adopts a proactive portfolio management approach, frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies to reduce risks and capture yield opportunities [5] - Starwood Property Trust (STWD) focuses on commercial real estate, holding a diversified portfolio of $1.02 billion as of Q1 2025, and maintains steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions [6] Performance Metrics - NLY shares have increased by 9.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 4.8% [7][9] - The forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio for Annaly is 0.98X, slightly above the industry average of 0.96X [10] - Earnings estimates for NLY indicate a year-over-year increase of 6.3% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [13]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is significantly impacted by mortgage rates, which have recently declined, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.81% as of June 18, 2025, down from 6.87% a year ago [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Demand - Lower mortgage rates are expected to improve housing affordability challenges, leading to increased loan demand [2] - The decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance purchase originations and refinancing activities, which will likely improve NLY's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Annaly's net interest income (NII) rose to $219.9 million in Q1 2025, a significant recovery from a negative NII of $6.45 million in the same quarter the previous year, aided by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts of 100 basis points in 2024 [4] - The upward trend in NII is expected to ease earnings pressure for Annaly, thereby supporting the company's overall performance [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment's NII also reflects the influence of mortgage rates, with a reported NII of $159 million compared to a negative NII of $30 million in the prior-year quarter, indicating a potential reduction in operational challenges [5] - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) experienced a 27.2% year-over-year decline in NII to $75.4 million in Q1 2025, but is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, which may ease earnings pressure [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - NLY shares have increased by 9.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 4.5% [7] - Annaly's forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio stands at 0.98X, slightly above the industry average of 0.96X [10] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 6.3%, with a further growth expectation of 1.4% for 2026, reflecting upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [12]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has demonstrated strong stock performance, gaining 8% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the industry average of 1.7% and its peers AGNC Investment and Arbor Realty Trust [1][4]. Price Performance - NLY's stock has outperformed AGNC Investment, which grew by 5.7%, and Arbor Realty Trust, which fell by 20.9% during the same period [4]. Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve's reduction of interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 has led to a slight decline in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.84% as of June 12, 2025, down from 6.95% a year prior [6]. - Lower mortgage rates are expected to improve housing affordability and increase loan demand, which will benefit NLY [7]. Financial Outlook - NLY is likely to see improvements in book value due to rising purchase originations and refinancing activities, as well as tightening spreads in the Agency market, which will enhance net interest spread and overall yield [8]. - The company has a strong dividend profile, currently yielding 14.7%, higher than the industry average of 11.7%, with a recent 7.7% increase in its dividend payout [9]. Liquidity and Capital Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, NLY had $7.5 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency MBS, providing substantial liquidity [11]. - The company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1.5 billion, which will expire on December 31, 2029, although no shares have been repurchased under this plan yet [12]. Diversification Strategy - NLY's diversified capital allocation includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), totaling an investment portfolio of $84.9 billion as of March 31, 2025 [13][15]. - The inclusion of MSRs is significant as they tend to increase in value when interest rates rise, providing a hedge against declines in agency MBS [16]. Valuation Analysis - NLY is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 0.98X, which is higher than the industry average of 0.96X, indicating a premium valuation [17][20]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward over the past 60 days, indicating a constructive sentiment around NLY's stock [22].

Core Viewpoint - Preferred shares are presenting an attractive investment opportunity with a yield of approximately 9.5%, offering a balance of income and stability for investors seeking consistent returns [1][13]. Investment Characteristics - Preferred shares rank above common equity in the capital structure, providing a lower risk profile compared to common stock, particularly in the mortgage REIT sector [2]. - Annaly Capital Management's preferred shares, specifically NLY-F, are highlighted for their low risk rating of 1 on a scale of 1 to 5, indicating a safer income investment [3][11]. Specific Share Analysis - NLY-F is currently priced at $25.18, with a yield of 9.48% and an annualized dividend of approximately $2.3881, making it a more attractive option compared to NLY-G, which has a lower yield and dividend [5][8]. - NLY-F and NLY-I are noted to pay about $0.20 more in dividends annually than NLY-G, justifying their higher price [9]. Call Risk and Market Dynamics - There is a potential call risk associated with these preferred shares, as the company can call shares with a 30-day notice, but this risk can be managed by selecting appropriate entry prices [7][12]. - The market conditions may influence the performance of these shares, with NLY-F and NLY-I expected to hold up better during periods of market stress compared to NLY-G [12]. Final Recommendations - For long-term investors seeking steady returns, NLY-F and NLY-I are recommended over NLY-G, despite a slight call risk, due to their strong backing and attractive yields [13].

Company Overview - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily owns, manages, and finances a portfolio of real-estate-related investment securities [11] - The company's investment portfolio includes mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), credit risk transfer (CRT), and other securities backed by pools of mortgage loans [11] Zacks Rank and Style Scores - Annaly Capital Management has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, indicating a solid position in the market [12] - The company also has a Value Style Score of B, supported by attractive valuation metrics such as a forward P/E ratio of 6.68, which is appealing to value investors [12] - For fiscal 2025, three analysts have revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.05 to $2.87 per share [12] - Annaly Capital Management has an average earnings surprise of 2.6%, suggesting a positive trend in earnings performance [12] Investment Consideration - With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, Annaly Capital Management is recommended to be on investors' short list for potential investment opportunities [13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a portfolio that generates income without the need for selling assets, aiming to simplify retirement investing [1] - It promotes a community-focused investment service that offers various tools and resources to support investors [2] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The service provides a model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, catering to both conservative and aggressive investors [2] - It includes preferred and baby bond portfolios, which are designed for more risk-averse investors [2] Group 2: Community and Support - The investment philosophy is centered around community engagement, education, and the belief that investors should not navigate the market alone [2] - The service features an active chat platform that allows members to interact with service leaders and each other [2] Group 3: Monitoring and Alerts - The service closely monitors all positions and issues buy and sell alerts exclusively for its members [4]

Group 1 - The risk of a prolonged high interest rate environment has diminished as consumer prices are increasing at a slower rate, with inflation recorded at 2.4% in May [1] - The current economic landscape suggests a shift in focus towards innovation and growth opportunities within high-tech and early growth companies [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and analysis in identifying potential investment opportunities and risks in the market [1] - It highlights the significance of understanding market trends and consumer behavior in making informed investment decisions [1]

Company Performance - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) experienced a decline of 1.54% in its stock price, closing at $19.18, which was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.13% [1] - Over the past month, NLY shares have decreased by 1.17%, while the Finance sector gained 1.24% and the S&P 500 increased by 3.55% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings per share (EPS) for Annaly Capital Management is projected to be $0.71, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $411 million, indicating a significant growth of 667.36% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $2.87 per share and revenue of $1.47 billion, representing increases of 6.3% and 492.83%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Annaly Capital Management are important as they reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [4] Valuation Metrics - Annaly Capital Management is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 6.78, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 8.48 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 4.29, which is higher than the average PEG ratio of 1.76 for REIT and Equity Trust stocks [7] Industry Context - The REIT and Equity Trust industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 157, placing it in the bottom 37% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of preferred shares and baby bonds for achieving strong risk-adjusted returns, alongside the positive performance of Business Development Companies (BDCs) [1][19] - It highlights the irrational behavior of the market, where some investors continue to buy underperforming stocks despite deteriorating fundamentals [2] - The article discusses the current favorable environment for agency mortgage REITs to issue new shares due to high price-to-book ratios, while hybrid mortgage REITs are struggling [3][6] Agency Mortgage REITs - AGNC Investment (AGNC) maintains a high price-to-book ratio, allowing it to issue new shares effectively [3] - The top three agency mortgage REITs, Dynex Capital (DX), Annaly Capital (NLY), and AGNC, have the highest price-to-book ratios and are expected to capitalize on this by issuing additional shares [4] - A projection indicates that agency mortgage REITs will see a decline in book value in Q2 2025, affecting their price-to-book ratios [5] Hybrid Mortgage REITs - The environment is unfavorable for hybrid mortgage REITs, with only Ellington Financial (EFC) trading close to its projected book value [6] Business Development Companies (BDCs) - Main Street Capital (MAIN) is recognized as a leading BDC, but it is challenging to find it at a bargain valuation [7] - MAIN's Total Economic Return (TER) reflects its performance through changes in book value and dividends, with share issuance above NAV enhancing its value [7][9] - The article notes that MAIN's ability to drive NAV per share higher is attributed to successful investments and effective management [13] Preferred Shares - There are emerging opportunities in preferred shares, which have historically provided strong risk-adjusted returns [14] Market Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a prime opportunity for investing in REITs, preferred shares, and BDCs due to increasing demand and insufficient supply in key real estate sectors [19]