Core Insights - Investors are evaluating Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and NVR (NVR) for potential undervalued stock opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - Persimmon Plc has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while NVR has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - PSMMY has a forward P/E ratio of 12.04, significantly lower than NVR's forward P/E of 18.98 [5] - The PEG ratio for PSMMY is 0.79, while NVR's PEG ratio is 11.03, suggesting PSMMY is more favorably valued in terms of expected earnings growth [5] - PSMMY's P/B ratio is 1.1, compared to NVR's P/B of 5.9, indicating a better valuation relative to book value [6] - Based on various valuation metrics, PSMMY holds a Value grade of B, while NVR has a Value grade of C [6] Conclusion - Given the stronger estimate revision activity and more attractive valuation metrics, PSMMY is considered the superior option for value investors at this time [7]

Core Insights - NVR, Inc. reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and Homebuilding revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although year-over-year earnings declined and Homebuilding revenues remained flat [1][4]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share were $108.54, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $104.89 by 3.5%, but decreased 10.1% from the prior-year quarter's earnings of $120.69 [4][9]. - Homebuilding revenues reached $2.55 billion, surpassing the consensus mark of $2.4 billion by 6.1%, but were flat year over year [4][9]. - Consolidated revenues, including Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking fees, amounted to $2.60 billion, a slight decline of 0.4% year over year [4]. Homebuilding Segment Analysis - Homebuilding segment revenues were flat compared to the year-ago quarter, with settlements down 3% year over year to 5,475 units [5][9]. - The average selling price (ASP) for settlements increased by 3% year over year to $465,400, while gross margin contracted by 210 basis points to 21.5% [5][6]. - New orders decreased by 11% year over year to 5,379 units, with the ASP of new orders remaining flat at $458,100 [6][9]. Market Conditions - The results reflect ongoing affordability challenges for homebuyers amid macroeconomic risks and inflationary pressures, leading to a pullback in the Homebuilding segment [2][3]. - Backlog units and value weakened due to uncertainties in the housing market, with backlog decreasing 13% to 10,069 homes and $4.75 billion in value [6][9]. Mortgage Banking Performance - Mortgage banking fees fell 21.7% year over year to $50.5 million, while closed loan production totaled $1.56 billion, up 2% year over year [7][9]. - The capture rate improved to 87% in the second quarter, up from 86% in the prior year [7]. Shareholder Actions - During the first six months of 2025, NVR repurchased 142,954 shares for $1.05 billion, with 2,883,215 shares outstanding at the end of June 30, 2025 [10].

Core Insights - NVR reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of $2.60 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.50 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $108.54, surpassing the expected $106.20, despite a year-over-year decline in key metrics [1][2][5] Financial Performance - EPS (GAAP) decreased by 10.1% year-over-year from $120.69 in Q2 2024 to $108.54 in Q2 2025 [2] - Revenue (GAAP) remained flat at $2.60 billion compared to $2.61 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting a slight decline of 0.4% [2] - Gross profit margin in homebuilding fell to 21.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from 23.6% in Q2 2024 [2][5] - Net income dropped by 16.8% from $400.9 million in Q2 2024 to $333.7 million in Q2 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - New home orders decreased by 11.3% from 6,067 units in Q2 2024 to 5,379 units in Q2 2025 [2][6] - The backlog of homes fell by 13.2% from 11,597 units in Q2 2024 to 10,069 units in Q2 2025 [2] - The cancellation rate increased from 13% in Q2 2024 to 17% in Q2 2025, indicating a decline in demand [6] Business Model and Strategy - NVR focuses on acquiring finished building lots through purchase agreements to minimize land risk and cash outlays, operating in 36 metropolitan areas across 16 states and Washington, D.C. [3] - The company maintains a robust supply of ready-to-build lots and has a mortgage banking division that supports home sales volumes by capturing a high rate of buyers using its mortgage products [4] Operational Highlights - NVR's mortgage banking operations closed a loan volume of $1.56 billion, but pre-tax income from this segment fell by 34% due to reduced gains from reselling loans [7] - The company ended Q2 2025 with 171,400 lots under control, a 14% increase from the previous year, which supports ongoing building activity [8] - Cash and equivalents decreased to $1.73 billion, partly due to share repurchases totaling $471.4 million in Q2 2025 and increased investments in inventory and land deposits [9] Future Outlook - Management did not provide formal financial guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2025, citing typical industry risks without specific projections for revenue, orders, or earnings [10] - Key areas to monitor include trends in order intake, backlog, margins, cash position, lot pipeline, and the management of cancellations and cost pressures [11]

Core Insights - NVR reported Q2 2025 earnings that exceeded Wall Street forecasts, with earnings per share of $108.54 and revenue of $2.60 billion, but showed year-over-year declines in profit and earnings per share due to lower new home orders and higher cancellation rates [1][2][5] Financial Performance - EPS (GAAP) for Q2 2025 was $108.54, beating the estimate of $106.20 but down 10.1% from $120.69 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue (GAAP) was $2.60 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.50 billion but down 0.4% from $2.61 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Homebuilding gross margin decreased to 21.5% from 23.6%, reflecting higher costs and pricing pressures [2][6] - Homebuilding income before tax fell 14.5% to $417.5 million, while mortgage banking income before tax dropped 34.2% to $29.6 million [2][6][7] Market Dynamics - New home orders decreased by 11% to 5,379 units, with a cancellation rate rising to 17% from 13% [5][6] - The average sale price for settled homes increased by 3% to $465,400, while the average price for new orders remained flat at $458,100, indicating pricing pressure [5][6] - The backlog value decreased by 13% to $4.75 billion, with the total number of homes in backlog also down 13% to 10,069 units, signaling softer demand [6] Business Strategy - NVR employs a risk-averse lot acquisition strategy, securing future building sites through finished lot purchase agreements, which mitigates exposure to land risks [4] - The company maintains strong local market positions and integrates its mortgage banking operations with home sales to enhance revenue [4] Operational Highlights - The mortgage banking segment saw a 2% increase in closed loan production to $1.56 billion, with a strong capture rate of 87% [7] - NVR's total controlled lot supply increased to 171,400, up from 149,700, despite slower sales [9] - The company repurchased 65,834 shares for $471.4 million, reducing outstanding shares to 2.88 million [9] Outlook - NVR did not provide explicit forward-looking guidance, but the decline in backlog and rising cancellation rates suggest caution for future quarters [10] - Monitoring new order activity, backlog trends, and mortgage banking performance will be critical for assessing future stability [11]

分组1 - NVR reported quarterly earnings of $108.54 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $104.89 per share, but down from $120.69 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +3.48% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.55 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.12%, with year-ago revenues also at $2.55 billion [2] - NVR shares have underperformed the market, losing about 3.3% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 7.3% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $96.67 on $2.35 billion in revenues, and for the current fiscal year, it is $403.07 on $9.51 billion in revenues [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Building Products - Home Builders is currently in the bottom 21% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8] - NVR has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2]

[Overall Financial Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Overall%20Financial%20Performance) NVR, Inc. experienced a decline in net income and diluted EPS for Q2 and YTD 2025, despite relatively stable or slightly increased revenues [Second Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%202025%20Consolidated%20Results) NVR, Inc. reported a decrease in net income and diluted earnings per share for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year, while consolidated revenues remained relatively flat Second Quarter 2025 Consolidated Financial Metrics | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :----------------------- | :---------- | :---------- | :--------- | | Net Income | $333.7 Million | $400.9 Million | -17% | | Diluted EPS | $108.54 | $120.69 | -10% | | Consolidated Revenues | $2.60 Billion | $2.61 Billion | -0.4% | [Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Consolidated Results](index=1&type=section&id=Six%20Months%20Ended%20June%2030%2C%202025%20Consolidated%20Results) For the first six months of 2025, NVR, Inc. experienced a slight increase in consolidated revenues but a notable decrease in net income and diluted earnings per share compared to the same period in 2024 Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Consolidated Financial Metrics | Metric | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | Change (%) | | :----------------------- | :--------- | :--------- | :--------- | | Consolidated Revenues | $5.00 Billion | $4.95 Billion | +1% | | Net Income | $633.3 Million | $795.2 Million | -20% | | Diluted EPS | $203.20 | $237.05 | -14% | [Segment Performance Analysis](index=1&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance%20Analysis) This section analyzes the performance of NVR, Inc.'s homebuilding and mortgage banking segments, highlighting key operational and financial trends [Homebuilding Segment](index=1&type=section&id=Homebuilding%20Segment) The homebuilding segment saw a decrease in new orders and settlements, with backlog also declining. Revenues remained flat, but gross profit margin decreased due to higher costs and pricing pressures [Homebuilding Operational Metrics](index=1&type=section&id=Homebuilding%20Operational%20Metrics) Key operational metrics for the homebuilding segment show declines in new orders, settlements, and backlog, alongside an increased cancellation rate Homebuilding Operational Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :----------------------- | :---------- | :---------- | :--------- | | New Orders (units) | 5,379 | 6,067 | -11% | | Avg. Sales Price (New Orders) | $458,100 | $458,100 | Flat | | Cancellation Rate | 17% | 13% | +4 percentage points | | Settlements (units) | 5,475 | 5,659 | -3% | | Avg. Settlement Price | $465,400 | $450,200 | +3% | | Backlog (units) | 10,069 | 11,597 | -13% | | Backlog (dollar) | $4.75 Billion | $5.45 Billion | -13% | [Homebuilding Financial Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Homebuilding%20Financial%20Performance) Financial performance for the homebuilding segment indicates flat revenues but a notable decrease in gross profit margin and income before tax Homebuilding Financial Performance (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :----------------------- | :---------- | :---------- | :--------- | | Homebuilding Revenues | $2.55 Billion | $2.55 Billion | Flat | | Gross Profit Margin | 21.5% | 23.6% | -2.1 percentage points | | Income Before Tax | $417.5 Million | $488.5 Million | -15% | - Gross profit margin was negatively impacted by higher lot costs, pricing pressure due to affordability challenges, and contract land deposit impairments totaling approximately **$13.2 million**[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Mortgage Banking Segment](index=1&type=section&id=Mortgage%20Banking%20Segment) The mortgage banking segment reported an increase in closed loan production but a significant decrease in income before tax, primarily due to lower secondary marketing gains Mortgage Banking Segment Performance (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :----------------------- | :---------- | :---------- | :--------- | | Mortgage Closed Loan Production | $1.56 Billion | $1.53 Billion | +2% | | Income Before Tax | $29.6 Million | $45.0 Million | -34% | - The decrease in income before tax was primarily attributable to a decrease in secondary marketing gains on sales of loans[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Effective Tax Rate](index=1&type=section&id=Effective%20Tax%20Rate) This section details the changes in NVR, Inc.'s effective tax rate for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 [Effective Tax Rate Analysis](index=1&type=section&id=Effective%20Tax%20Rate%20Analysis) NVR's effective tax rate increased for both the three and six-month periods ended June 30, 2025, mainly due to a lower income tax benefit from stock option exercises Effective Tax Rate Comparison | Period | 2025 Tax Rate | 2024 Tax Rate | Change (percentage points) | | :----------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :------------ | | Three Months Ended June 30 | 25.4% | 24.9% | +0.5 | | Six Months Ended June 30 | 25.4% | 20.8% | +4.6 | - The increase in the effective tax rate is primarily attributable to a lower income tax benefit recognized for excess tax benefits from stock option exercises, which totaled **$3.5 million** (Q2 2025) and **$6.2 million** (YTD 2025), compared to **$6.8 million** (Q2 2024) and **$50.6 million** (YTD 2024)[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Company Overview](index=2&type=section&id=Company%20Overview) This section provides a brief overview of NVR, Inc.'s business structure, operating segments, and geographical presence [About NVR](index=2&type=section&id=About%20NVR) NVR, Inc. operates in two primary business segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking, serving multiple metropolitan areas across sixteen states and Washington, D.C. under various trade names - NVR, Inc. operates in two business segments: **homebuilding** and **mortgage banking**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The homebuilding segment sells and builds homes under the **Ryan Homes**, **NVHomes**, and **Heartland Homes** trade names[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Homebuilding operations span **thirty-six metropolitan areas** in **sixteen states** and **Washington, D.C.**[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking Statements & Risk Factors](index=2&type=section&id=Forward-Looking%20Statements%20%26%20Risk%20Factors) This section addresses the inherent uncertainties in forward-looking statements and outlines key risk factors that could impact NVR, Inc.'s future performance [Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer](index=2&type=section&id=Forward-Looking%20Statements%20Disclaimer) This section outlines the nature of forward-looking statements within the release, emphasizing that actual results may differ materially due to various known and unknown risks and uncertainties - Statements in the release may constitute 'forward-looking statements' under the **Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995** and other securities acts[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Risk factors include **general economic conditions**, **interest rate changes**, **financing access**, **increased regulation in mortgage banking**, **competition**, **availability and cost of land/materials**, **labor shortages**, and **governmental regulation**[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents NVR, Inc.'s unaudited consolidated statements of income and balance sheets for the specified periods [Consolidated Statements of Income](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Income) This section provides the unaudited consolidated statements of income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024, detailing revenues, costs, and income by segment Consolidated Statements of Income (in thousands, except per share data) | (in thousands, except per share data) | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :------------------------------------ | :------------------------------- | :------------------------------- | :----------------------------- | :----------------------------- | | **Homebuilding:** | | | | | | Revenues | $2,548,267 | $2,547,891 | $4,898,712 | $4,834,068 | | Other income | 25,088 | 36,184 | 51,800 | 77,050 | | Cost of sales | (1,999,983) | (1,947,616) | (3,835,358) | (3,673,829) | | Selling, general and administrative | (149,170) | (141,213) | (314,287) | (293,716) | | Interest expense | (6,685) | (6,710) | (13,866) | (13,359) | | Homebuilding income | 417,517 | 488,536 | 787,001 | 930,214 | | **Mortgage Banking:** | | | | | | Mortgage banking fees | 50,547 | 64,566 | 103,134 | 111,852 | | Interest income | 4,493 | 4,672 | 8,299 | 8,764 | | Other income | 1,301 | 1,333 | 2,394 | 2,504 | | General and administrative | (26,425) | (25,351) | (51,118) | (48,709) | | Interest expense | (300) | (188) | (573) | (365) | | Mortgage banking income | 29,616 | 45,032 | 62,136 | 74,046 | | Income before taxes | 447,133 | 533,568 | 849,137 | 1,004,260 | | Income tax expense | (113,396) | (132,664) | (215,824) | (209,087) | | Net income | $333,737 | $400,904 | $633,313 | $795,173 | | Basic earnings per share | $114.52 | $128.21 | $214.78 | $251.94 | | Diluted earnings per share | $108.54 | $120.69 | $203.20 | $237.05 | | Basic weighted average shares outstanding | 2,914 | 3,127 | 2,949 | 3,156 | | Diluted weighted average shares outstanding | 3,075 | 3,322 | 3,117 | 3,355 | [Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) This section presents the unaudited consolidated balance sheets as of June 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, detailing assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity for both homebuilding and mortgage banking segments Consolidated Balance Sheets (in thousands, except share and per share data) | (in thousands, except share and per share data) | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :---------------------------------------------- | :------------ | :---------------- | | **ASSETS** | | | | **Homebuilding:** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $1,726,865 | $2,561,339 | | Restricted cash | 53,240 | 42,172 | | Receivables | 41,496 | 32,622 | | Inventory: | | | | Lots and housing units, covered under sales agreements with customers | 1,797,104 | 1,727,243 | | Unsold lots and housing units | 304,743 | 237,177 | | Land under development | 39,450 | 65,394 | | Building materials and other | 28,743 | 28,893 | | Total Inventory | 2,170,040 | 2,058,707 | | Contract land deposits, net | 837,845 | 726,675 | | Property, plant and equipment, net | 100,280 | 95,619 | | Operating lease right-of-use assets | 86,206 | 78,340 | | Reorganization value in excess of amounts allocable to identifiable assets, net | 41,580 | 41,580 | | Other assets | 295,858 | 251,178 | | Total Homebuilding Assets | 5,353,410 | 5,888,232 | | **Mortgage Banking:** | | |\ | Cash and cash equivalents | 39,307 | 49,636 | | Restricted cash | 10,513 | 11,520 | | Mortgage loans held for sale, net | 415,974 | 355,209 | | Property and equipment, net | 8,053 | 7,373 | | Operating lease right-of-use assets | 24,515 | 23,482 | | Reorganization value in excess of amounts allocable to identifiable assets, net | 7,347 | 7,347 | | Other assets | 80,220 | 38,189 | | Total Mortgage Banking Assets | 585,929 | 492,756 | | **Total assets** | $5,939,339 | $6,380,988 | | **LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY** | | | | **Homebuilding:** | | | | Accounts payable | $367,929 | $332,772 | | Accrued expenses and other liabilities | 333,456 | 441,300 | | Customer deposits | 295,145 | 322,926 | | Operating lease liabilities | 92,160 | 83,939 | | Senior notes | 910,145 | 911,118 | | Total Homebuilding Liabilities | 1,998,835 | 2,092,055 | | **Mortgage Banking:** | | | | Accounts payable and other liabilities | 68,785 | 53,433 | | Operating lease liabilities | 26,588 | 25,428 | | Total Mortgage Banking Liabilities | 95,373 | 78,861 | | **Total liabilities** | 2,094,208 | 2,170,916 | | Commitments and contingencies | | | | **Shareholders' equity:** | | | | Common stock, $0.01 par value | 206 | 206 | | Additional paid-in capital | 3,085,904 | 3,031,637 | | Deferred compensation trust | (16,710) | (16,710) | | Deferred compensation liability | 16,710 | 16,710 | | Retained earnings | 15,680,266 | 15,046,953 | | Less treasury stock at cost | (14,921,245) | (13,868,724) | | **Total shareholders' equity** | 3,845,131 | 4,210,072 | | **Total liabilities and shareholders' equity** | $5,939,339 | $6,380,988 | [Supplemental Operating Data](index=6&type=section&id=Supplemental%20Operating%20Data) This section provides detailed supplemental operating data, including regional homebuilding activity and key company-wide metrics [Homebuilding Operating Activity by Region](index=6&type=section&id=Homebuilding%20Operating%20Activity%20by%20Region) This section provides a regional breakdown of key homebuilding operational metrics, including settlements, backlog, and new orders, for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 Settlements (Three Months Ended June 30) | Region | 2025 Units | 2025 Avg. Price ($K) | 2024 Units | 2024 Avg. Price ($K) | | :------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | | Mid Atlantic | 2,101 | 537.2 | 2,199 | 515.5 | | North East | 474 | 651.7 | 487 | 589.8 | | Mid East | 1,082 | 415.8 | 1,075 | 403.7 | | South East | 1,818 | 363.3 | 1,898 | 365.1 | | **Total** | **5,475** | **465.4** | **5,659** | **450.2** | Settlements (Six Months Ended June 30) | Region | 2025 Units | 2025 Avg. Price ($K) | 2024 Units | 2024 Avg. Price ($K) | | :------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | | Mid Atlantic | 4,151 | 532.6 | 4,165 | 516.5 | | North East | 945 | 632.5 | 950 | 571.5 | | Mid East | 2,095 | 411.6 | 2,124 | 400.6 | | South East | 3,417 | 359.2 | 3,509 | 367.3 | | **Total** | **10,608** | **461.8** | **10,748** | **449.7** | Backlog (As of June 30) | Region | 2025 Units | 2025 Avg. Price ($K) | 2024 Units | 2024 Avg. Price ($K) | | :------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | | Mid Atlantic | 3,713 | 532.6 | 4,508 | 531.4 | | North East | 911 | 698.4 | 1,083 | 643.3 | | Mid East | 2,120 | 426.8 | 2,377 | 416.6 | | South East | 3,325 | 371.6 | 3,629 | 378.0 | | **Total** | **10,069** | **472.1** | **11,597** | **470.3** | New Orders, Net of Cancellations (Three Months Ended June 30) | Region | 2025 Units | 2025 Avg. Price ($K) | 2024 Units | 2024 Avg. Price ($K) | | :------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | | Mid Atlantic | 1,930 | 531.3 | 2,297 | 536.2 | | North East | 424 | 655.3 | 478 | 623.4 | | Mid East | 1,072 | 424.2 | 1,262 | 403.7 | | South East | 1,953 | 361.7 | 2,030 | 366.7 | | **Total** | **5,379** | **458.1** | **6,067** | **458.8** | New Orders, Net of Cancellations (Six Months Ended June 30) | Region | 2025 Units | 2025 Avg. Price ($K) | 2024 Units | 2024 Avg. Price ($K) | | :------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | :--------- | :------------------- | | Mid Atlantic | 3,796 | 523.0 | 4,579 | 525.9 | | North East | 801 | 674.0 | 1,005 | 617.7 | | Mid East | 2,170 | 422.0 | 2,525 | 406.8 | | South East | 3,957 | 359.0 | 4,007 | 368.3 | | **Total** | **10,724** | **453.3** | **12,116** | **456.6** | [Key Operating Metrics & Stock Information](index=7&type=section&id=Key%20Operating%20Metrics%20%26%20Stock%20Information) This section provides additional operational data, including average active communities, new order cancellation rates, lots controlled, mortgage banking loan closings and capture rates, and common stock information Average Active Communities | Region | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | | :------------- | :------ | :------ | :------- | :------- | | Mid Atlantic | 120 | 153 | 120 | 155 |\ | North East | 26 | 31 | 25 | 33 | | Mid East | 94 | 101 | 93 | 100 | | South East | 186 | 148 | 175 | 142 | | **Total** | **426** | **433** | **413** | **430** | Homebuilding Data | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | | :---------------------- | :------ | :------ | :------- | :------- | | New order cancellation rate | 16.5% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 13.0% | | Lots controlled at end of period | N/A | N/A | 171,400 | 149,700 | Mortgage Banking Data | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | | :---------------- | :---------- | :---------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Loan closings | $1,555,280 | $1,530,081 | $2,988,201 | $2,908,090 | | Capture rate | 87% | 86% | 87% | 86% | Common Stock Information | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | | :-------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Shares outstanding at end of period | N/A | N/A | 2,883,215 | 3,090,266 | | Number of shares repurchased | 65,834 | 83,168 | 142,954 | 150,026 | | Aggregate cost of shares repurchased | $471,413 | $638,976 | $1,054,807 | $1,135,912 |

Core Insights - The article compares two stocks in the Building Products - Home Builders sector: Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and NVR (NVR) to determine which presents a better value opportunity for investors [1] Valuation Metrics - Persimmon Plc has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while NVR has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3] - PSMMY has a forward P/E ratio of 12.45, significantly lower than NVR's forward P/E of 18.22 [5] - The PEG ratio for PSMMY is 0.82, while NVR's PEG ratio is much higher at 4.05, suggesting PSMMY is more favorably valued in terms of expected earnings growth [5] - PSMMY's P/B ratio is 1.14, compared to NVR's P/B ratio of 5.58, further indicating that PSMMY is undervalued relative to its book value [6] Investment Conclusion - Given the stronger estimate revision activity and more attractive valuation metrics, PSMMY is considered the superior option for value investors at this time [7]

Core Insights - NVR, Inc. is anticipated to report lower earnings and homebuilding revenues in Q2 2025 due to soft demand, high inventories, and margin pressures [1][10] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVR's Q2 EPS has decreased to $106.33, reflecting an 11.9% decline from the previous year's EPS of $120.69 [3] - Revenue estimates for the quarter are set at $2.40 billion, indicating a 5.8% decrease from the year-ago figure of $2.55 billion [3][10] - In the last reported quarter, NVR's earnings and homebuilding revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.1% and 1%, respectively [1] Market Conditions - The homebuilding industry is experiencing ongoing softness, with the spring 2025 selling season underperforming due to affordability issues and weakened consumer confidence [4] - High and fluctuating mortgage rates, along with economic uncertainties, have negatively impacted homebuyer activity during the peak sales period [4] Revenue and Settlement Predictions - Homebuilding revenues are expected to decline by 5.6% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, with the average selling price of settlements projected to decrease by 1.5% to $443,500 [5] - Total settlements are anticipated to drop by 4.2% to 5,422 units year-over-year [5] Cost and Margin Outlook - The company's gross margin for homebuilding is expected to decrease to 22.1%, down 150 basis points from the previous year [6][10] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses are projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year for the homebuilding segment [6][10] Order and Backlog Trends - Total new orders are predicted to increase by 3.6% year-over-year to 6,287 units, while the backlog is expected to decline to 11,030 units from 11,597 units reported a year ago [7] - The value of the backlog is estimated to be $5.3 billion, down from $5.45 billion in the same quarter last year [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for NVR, as it lacks the necessary combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [8] - NVR has an Earnings ESP of +3.25% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for NVR, with a consensus outlook indicating lower revenues and earnings per share (EPS) expectations [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - NVR is expected to report quarterly earnings of $106.33 per share, reflecting an 11.9% decrease year-over-year [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $2.4 billion, which is a 5.8% decline from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.01% over the last 30 days, indicating a slight reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for NVR is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.25% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading indicates a potential earnings beat, particularly when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [10]. - NVR currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, NVR was expected to post earnings of $107.87 per share but only achieved $94.83, resulting in a surprise of -12.09% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, NVR has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Market Reaction - The stock's movement may depend on how actual results compare to expectations, with potential for upward movement if results exceed estimates, and downward movement if they fall short [2][15]. - Other factors beyond earnings results may also influence stock performance, making it essential to consider a broader context [15][17].

Group 1 - The article highlights NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR) as a focus for 2025, indicating a previous assessment in December suggested the stock was at risk [2] - The Insiders Forum, managed by Bret Jensen, specializes in small and mid-cap stocks with significant insider purchases, aiming to outperform the Russell 2000 benchmark [2] Group 2 - The Insiders Forum portfolio consists of 12-25 top stocks across various sectors that are attractively valued [2]