特朗普关心的只有鲍威尔对9月降息的立场，但市场更关注的还有，鲍威尔可能如何阐述美联储现行货 币政策框架修订计划。 近期美国就业数据疲软，使得市场降息预期陡升，美债投资者押注美联储9月至少降息25个基点，且年 内还将有一次降息。过往的年会中，鲍威尔曾发表过撼动市场的讲话内容，但此次，市场普遍预计，他 将更为"鸽派"，顺从降息预期。为此，美债收益率已全线下跌，对利率最为敏感的两年期美债收益率降 幅最大。即便如此，美国总统特朗普还是不放心，在年会召开在即时，再度"敲打"鲍威尔。 年会前再度敲打鲍威尔 当地时间周二（19日），特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道："谁能告诉'太晚先生'鲍威尔， 他正在严重伤害房地产行业。因为他，人们无法获得抵押贷款。通货膨胀没有出现，所有迹象都表明利 率应该大幅下降。'太晚先生'简直是一场灾难！"今年以来，特朗普还曾用"愚蠢""白痴"和"傻瓜"等词形 容过鲍威尔，但在市场此前预言了"辞退鲍威尔"交易后，特朗普近期鲜少提及提前辞退鲍威尔的说法 了，而是加速任命"影子主席"的进程。 当地时间本周四晚间，杰克逊霍尔央行年会就将在美国怀俄明州小镇杰克逊霍尔拉开帷幕，其中最受瞩 ...

The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about M/I Homes (MHO) .M/I Homes currently has an average brokerage rec ...

Toll Brothers (TOL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call August 20, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDouglas Yearley - Chairman & CEOMartin Connor - CFOGregg Ziegler - SVP - IR & TreasurerStephen Kim - Senior MDTrevor Allinson - Director - Equity ResearchSam Reid - Executive Director - Equity Research, Home Builders & Building ProductsAlan Ratner - Managing DirectorMichael Rehaut - Executive DirectorConference Call ParticipantsJohn Lovallo - Equity Research AnalystMike Dahl - MD, Equity Research - Homebuilders & Build ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, generating record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2,900,000,000, which represents a 5% increase in units and a 6% increase in dollars compared to the previous year [5][15] - Adjusted gross margin was 27.5%, exceeding guidance by 25 basis points, while SG&A expense was 8.8% of home sales revenues, 40 basis points better than guidance [5][16] - Third-quarter earnings were $370,000,000 or $3.73 per diluted share, with a cancellation rate of 3.2%, which remains the lowest in the industry [10][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 2,388 net contracts for $2,400,000,000, with units down approximately 4% year over year, but dollars flat due to an increase in average sales price to just over $1,000,000 [5][15] - The average sales price (ASP) was up 4.5% versus 2024 and up 3% versus the last quarter, indicating resilience in the luxury business [5][15] - The backlog stood at 5,492 homes valued at $6,376,000,000, with an average sales price in the backlog of $1,160,000 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the third quarter with 420 active selling communities and expects to end the fiscal year with 440 to 450 communities, representing 8% to 10% year-over-year growth [11][12] - The company has 3,200 spec homes at various stages of completion and another 1,800 building permits ready to go, allowing for quick ramp-up of spec production as market conditions improve [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to prioritize price and margin over pace, actively managing spec starts and inventory levels on a community-by-community basis to match local market conditions [6][11] - The strategy of selling spec homes at various stages of construction allows buyers to personalize their homes while providing a faster construction schedule [8][9] - The company remains disciplined in its land acquisition strategy, focusing on high-quality land at attractive returns while keeping land off balance sheet as long as practical [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a full-year adjusted gross margin of 27.25% and expects to deliver approximately 11,200 homes for the full year [6][23] - The company anticipates a modest decline in build costs and has not seen significant impacts from tariffs, with expectations for build costs to come down in the foreseeable future [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of community openings and spec strategy to drive growth in fiscal year 2026, with optimism about market conditions improving [36][41] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $226,000,000 to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter [5] - The company issued $500,000,000 of ten-year senior notes at a 5.6% coupon and called $350,000,000 of senior notes scheduled to mature in November [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cash flow from operations guidance - The year-to-date cash flow from operations is approximately $400 million, with expectations to reach over $1,000,000,000 by year-end [29][30] Question: Construction costs expectations - Management expects construction costs to be flat to modestly down in the short term, with some progress in negotiating better pricing for materials [31][32] Question: Sales pace and community growth - Management confirmed no change in the sales pace target of two homes per community per month and expressed excitement about community count growth in fiscal year 2026 [35][36] Question: Incentives and sales trends - Incentives increased to 8% due to more discounting on finished specs, but management noted that incentives have stabilized recently [50][51] Question: Development costs and community count guidance - Management has not seen much relief on land development costs but expects community count growth to be spread throughout the quarter without significant regional concentration [69][72]

最新数据显示，美国住宅建筑市场呈现复杂图景。七月份新屋开工数意外增长百分之五点二，折合成年率达到一百四十三万套，攀升至五个月来的最高点， 超过所有经济学家预期。 尽管七月份数据带来了一些积极信号，但许多经济学家警告称，不要过度解读单月数据。美国住宅建筑市场仍然面临重大挑战，包括劳动力成本上升、土地 供应限制以及不确定的宏观经济环境。建筑商在启动新项目时仍将保持选择性，重点关注那些需求最为稳定、回报最有保障的市场领域。 未来几个月的美 国地产市场表现将很大程度上取决于抵押贷款利率的走势。如果利率能够稳定或适度回落，可能会提振消费者信心并刺激更多购房活动。然而，如果利率继 续攀升或保持高位，美国住宅建筑市场可能会面临更大压力。 这一增长主要得益于多户住宅建设的强劲表现。七月份美国多户住宅开工数增长近百分之十，达到折合年率四十八点九万套，创下二零二三年中期以来的最 快建设速度。与此同时，单户住宅开工数也保持稳定增长，增长百分之二点八至折合年率六十三点九万套。 尽管新屋开工数据表现亮眼，但美国建筑商们 对市场前景仍持谨慎态度。过去几年间，随着抵押贷款利率翻倍增长，许多房主选择保持现状而非出售房产，导致美国地产市场流动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference is highly anticipated, particularly for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, with expectations leaning towards a dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts due to recent weak employment data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following signals from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts, U.S. real estate stocks have seen a preemptive rise, with the Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index climbing above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is set for a review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [8]. - There is speculation that Powell may abolish the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was designed during a low-inflation period, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target due to the changing economic landscape post-pandemic [8]. - Powell hinted at the possibility of this change in a May speech, acknowledging that future inflation volatility may be significantly higher than in the previous decade [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in U.S. housing stocks and small-cap stocks, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical upward trend [3]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [3]. - The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also saw a 3.1% increase, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices rose by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7% respectively during the same period [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, noted that housing stocks had previously suffered, dropping nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [4]. - Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that traditional sectors benefiting from rate cuts have been rising as the market anticipates a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [4][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to adopt a dovish stance in his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, aligning with market expectations for rate cuts [5]. - There is speculation about the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, although a more gradual approach of 25 basis points is considered more likely by most market participants [5]. Group 4: Investment Moves - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent strong rebound, housing stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded about 20% since April [8]. - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying activity [8][9]. - The current market conditions have led builders to offer temporary rate buy-downs to stimulate sales, with starting rates sometimes as low as 3.99% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. residential construction sector is experiencing short-term pressures alongside long-term potential, with challenges including inventory and price pressures, profit margin squeeze, and housing affordability issues. However, the underlying demand for housing remains strong, indicating potential for recovery if key variables shift positively [2][4][6]. Inventory and Price Pressure - New home inventory has been rising since 2023, leading developers to adopt price reduction strategies or sales incentives to accelerate sales, resulting in a 7% year-on-year decline in new home sales prices as of Q2 2025 [4][5]. - As of mid-2025, 38% of developers have lowered prices, while 62% have offered sales incentives, with discounts averaging 6%-8% off the sales price [4]. Profit Margin Pressure - U.S. residential builders are facing significant profit margin pressures due to high land, labor, and financing costs, alongside additional promotional costs. The average gross margin for major builders has declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [5][6]. Housing Affordability Constraints - The housing affordability index has dropped from 100.9 at the end of 2024 to 94.4 in mid-2025, indicating a decrease in buyer confidence and purchasing power in a high-interest rate environment [6][7]. Valuation Dynamics - The valuation of residential builders is expected to undergo a two-phase recovery: the first phase driven by changes in interest rate expectations leading to valuation multiples expansion, and the second phase driven by profit recovery, which is subject to various macroeconomic uncertainties [3][7]. - Current valuation multiples have decreased by 20%-30% from previous highs, providing a safety margin for investors [9]. Investment Opportunities - The initial phase of investment opportunities is linked to the anticipated changes in interest rates, with a focus on companies with low valuation levels but high return on equity (ROE). The recovery in profitability may vary based on product types and market coverage [9][10]. - Companies with a market share in entry-level products and those operating in high-immigration areas are expected to see order volume recovery first [9][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The average asset-liability ratio for U.S. residential builders has slightly increased in 2025, while gross margins have generally declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [43][44]. - Return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have shown a downward trend, averaging 20.5% and 11.5% respectively as of mid-2025, although still above the S&P 500 average [44][50].

Core Viewpoint - Recent market trends indicate a shift towards undervalued sectors, particularly residential construction stocks and small-cap stocks, as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index (DJSHMB) has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend [1] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [1] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 3.1% in the same period, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7%, respectively [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist from LPL Financial noted that residential builders had previously dropped nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [2] - Michael Arone from State Street Investment Management stated that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have been rising due to market expectations of a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [2] - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has recently invested approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent rebound, residential construction stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500, which has rebounded about 20% since the low point following the announcement of tariffs in April [4] - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying and selling [4] - Turnquist emphasized that the current state of the real estate market is characterized by stagnation, with homeowners only selling under dire circumstances [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Grant from BNY Wealth anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, one in September and another in December, with inflation expected to remain moderate [3][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including new housing starts and existing home sales, will be crucial in determining the continued performance of interest-sensitive sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett is signaling a clear investment strategy by directing funds towards the interest-rate-sensitive U.S. residential construction industry, indicating a potential bullish outlook on the housing market as interest rates are expected to decline [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Berkshire Hathaway has newly established a position in D.R. Horton, one of the largest residential builders in the U.S., and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [3][5]. - D.R. Horton’s stock has risen 19% year-to-date, outperforming its peer Toll Brothers, which increased by 4%, and Lennar, which has seen a 3% decline [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The housing sector is showing signs of strength, with various companies in the industry experiencing upward momentum, suggesting a reassessment of this long-suppressed sector by investors [3][5]. - Taylor Morrison Home is highlighted as a strong performer, with its stock only 10% off its 52-week high and showing consistent buying interest over the past 10 weeks [8]. Group 3: Potential Stocks in the Supply Chain - Masco, a supplier of building products and equipment, is identified as a potential stock to watch, having increased by 13% in the past month despite a modest 1% rise year-to-date [11]. - Sherwin-Williams, a major player in the paint industry, has seen its stock rise 7% year-to-date and has recently broken through a significant technical level, indicating potential for further gains [14].