Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) closed the last trading session at $12.42, gaining 25.1% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $16.56 indicates a 33.3% upside potential.The mean estimate comprises eight short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $3. While the lowest estimate of $12.60 indicates a 1.5% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst e ...

Core Insights - Alluvial Gold Research provides detailed research on undervalued miners with potential catalysts for portfolio outperformance [1] - The focus is on precious metals developers, producers, and royalty/streaming companies, with real-time buy/sell alerts and sentiment indicators offered to subscribers [1] Group 1 - The leader of Alluvial Gold Research, Taylor Dart, has over 16 years of trading experience, specializing in precious metals [1] - Subscribers gain access to current portfolios, entry/exit points, and proprietary sentiment indicators for gold and silver miners [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence and consulting financial professionals before making investment decisions [2][3] - It is noted that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking growth stocks that demonstrate above-average growth potential, with Orla Mining Ltd. identified as a promising candidate due to its strong growth metrics and favorable rankings [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Growth - Orla Mining has a historical EPS growth rate of 83.4%, with projected EPS growth of 212% this year, significantly surpassing the industry average of 65.4% [5]. - Double-digit earnings growth is preferred by growth investors as it indicates strong future prospects and potential stock price gains [4]. Group 2: Cash Flow Growth - The company exhibits a year-over-year cash flow growth of 58.9%, well above the industry average of 6%, highlighting its strong financial health [6]. - Over the past 3-5 years, Orla Mining's annualized cash flow growth rate has been 49.7%, compared to the industry average of 15.4% [7]. Group 3: Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current-year earnings estimates for Orla Mining have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 20.5% over the past month, indicating positive momentum [8]. Group 4: Overall Assessment - Orla Mining has achieved a Growth Score of A and a Zacks Rank of 2, reflecting its strong growth potential and positive earnings estimate revisions, making it a solid choice for growth investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) has significantly outperformed the Basic Materials sector in year-to-date returns, making it an attractive option for investors in this industry [1][4]. Company Performance - Orla Mining Ltd. has returned approximately 128.9% since the beginning of the calendar year, compared to the Basic Materials sector's average return of 19.4% [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORLA's full-year earnings has increased by 37.4% over the past 90 days, indicating a positive trend in analyst sentiment [3]. Industry Context - Orla Mining Ltd. is part of the Mining - Gold industry, which consists of 41 companies and has achieved an average return of 124.1% year-to-date [5]. - In contrast, another Basic Materials stock, Salzgitter AG (SZGPY), has returned 112.9% year-to-date and is part of the Steel - Producers industry, which has only increased by 34% since the start of the year [4][6]. Zacks Rank - Orla Mining Ltd. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting its strong earnings outlook and positive analyst revisions [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - Orla Mining Ltd. is experiencing significant improvements in earnings estimates, which may lead to continued stock price momentum [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - Analysts have shown growing optimism regarding Orla Mining's earnings prospects, leading to a rising trend in estimate revisions that is expected to positively impact the stock price [2]. - The current quarter's earnings estimate is projected at $0.26 per share, reflecting a substantial increase of +271.4% compared to the previous year [5]. - For the full year, the earnings estimate stands at $0.78 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of +212.0% [6]. - Over the past month, four estimates have been revised upward for the current year, with no negative revisions, resulting in a 25.3% increase in the consensus estimate [6][7]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Orla Mining has achieved a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating strong agreement among analysts on the upward revisions of earnings estimates [8]. - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) have historically outperformed the S&P 500, suggesting a favorable investment outlook for Orla Mining [8]. Stock Performance - The stock has gained 16% over the past four weeks, driven by solid estimate revisions and positive earnings growth prospects [9].

Core Viewpoint - Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) has seen a 16% increase in share price over the past four weeks, closing at $12.53, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' price targets suggesting a mean estimate of $16.56, representing a 32.2% upside [1][11]. Price Targets - The average of eight short-term price targets ranges from a low of $12.60 to a high of $19.95, with a standard deviation of $3, indicating variability among analysts [2]. - The lowest estimate suggests a 0.6% increase from the current price, while the highest estimate indicates a 59.2% upside [2]. Analyst Consensus and Earnings Estimates - Analysts have shown increasing optimism regarding ORLA's earnings prospects, with a strong agreement in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [4][11]. - Over the last 30 days, four estimates have been revised upward, leading to a 25.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12]. Zacks Rank - ORLA holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating a strong potential for upside in the near term [13]. Price Movement Guidance - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the extent of ORLA's potential gains, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a useful guide for investors [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated record free cash flow supported by record gold production and price, with net income for the quarter at $49.3 million or $0.15 per share, and adjusted earnings at $73 million or $0.22 per share [14][32] - The average realized price for gold sold was $3,417 per ounce, with a total revenue of approximately $270 million for the quarter [13][14] - Cash flow from operating activities before changes in non-cash working capital was $113 million or $0.13 per share [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - At Musselwhite, 326,000 tons of ore were mined with a production of nearly 58,000 ounces of gold at a mill head grade of 5.87 grams per ton [6][8] - Camino Rojo produced 22,059 ounces of gold during the quarter, with a total of 2.8 million tons of ore placed on the heap leach pad at an average grade of 0.4 grams per ton [8][10] - South Railroad is moving towards final permits and construction start, with project updates expected soon [4][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong cash position of $327 million, with total liquidity of $357 million, positioning it well for future growth [15] - The gold price hovered around $4,100, influencing capital allocation strategies [60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a "growth-for-longer" vision, emphasizing resource growth, expanded production, and mine life extension at Musselwhite [3][16] - The South Railroad project aims to establish an operating presence in Nevada, targeting annual production closer to 500,000 ounces at competitive costs [4][10] - The exploration strategy includes aggressive growth of the resource base to unlock opportunities for increased annual production and extended mine life [20][24] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted operational resilience and significant advancements in the growth pipeline, with optimism regarding the permitting process for South Railroad and Camino Rojo [32] - The company remains committed to responsible mining practices and community engagement, with strong support from stakeholders for projects [26][30] Other Important Information - The transition and integration activities at Musselwhite are nearly complete, moving towards a more decentralized model [12] - The company is actively engaging with local, state, and federal stakeholders to sustain momentum in the permitting process in the U.S. [10][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation on Musselwhite's new scope in the Red Wings area - Management confirmed that the new scope is in the higher portions of the ore body, which will help increase throughput at the mill [34][36] Question: Significance of being a FAST-41 covered project for South Railroad - Management explained that being a covered project provides access to different departments and accelerates the permitting process, potentially allowing for earlier production [45][46] Question: Update on permitting at Camino Rojo - Management expressed confidence in the near future granting of permits due to positive engagement with Mexican authorities and the importance of the permit for expansion and underground exploration [49][50] Question: Guidance on all-in sustaining costs at Camino Rojo - Management indicated that while some cost pressures may continue into Q4, there will be relief from the Newmont systems and TSA payments by the end of the month [56][58] Question: Capital allocation strategy in light of strong free cash flow - Management noted that the strong gold price has led to considerations for accelerated debt repayment and potential returns to investors through dividends [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated record free cash flow supported by record gold production and price, with a total revenue of approximately $270 million for the quarter from selling 79,000 ounces of gold at a realized price of $3,417 per ounce [12][13] - Net income for the quarter was $49.3 million or $0.15 per share, with adjusted earnings of $73 million or $0.22 per share [13] - Cash flow from operating activities before changes in non-cash working capital was $113 million or $0.13 per share [13] - The cash balance at September 30th was $327 million, with total liquidity of $357 million [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - At Musselwhite, the company mined 326,000 tons of ore and milled 329,000 tons at a mill head grade of 5.87 grams per ton gold, resulting in nearly 58,000 ounces of gold production [5] - At Camino Rojo, mining operations were temporarily suspended due to a pit wall event, but production continued from stockpiles, resulting in a total quarterly production of 22,059 ounces of gold [6][8] - South Railroad project is moving towards final permits and construction start, with first gold targeted for early 2028 [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price for gold sold was $3,508 per ounce, exceeding the average for the quarter [12] - The company expects steady production and cost performance from the fourth quarter, with cash costs and sustaining costs totaling $1,200 and $1,641 per ounce of gold sold, respectively [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a "growth-for-longer" vision, emphasizing resource growth, expanded production, and mine life extension at Musselwhite [3][4] - The South Railroad project is seen as a key development step to establish an operating presence in Nevada, aiming for annual production closer to 500,000 ounces at competitive costs [4][10] - The company is committed to multi-year exploration to test mine trend extensions and expand underground resources [17][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted operational resilience and significant advancements in the growth pipeline, with optimism regarding the permitting process for South Railroad and ongoing exploration efforts [31] - The management expressed confidence in the permitting timeline for Camino Rojo, noting strong engagement with Mexican authorities [29][44] Other Important Information - The company has made significant strides in environmental, social, and governance performance, including community engagement and training programs [25][26] - The transition and integration activities at Musselwhite are nearly complete, moving towards a more decentralized model [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation on Musselwhite's new scope in the Red Wings area - The new scope is in the higher portions of the ore body, which will help increase throughput at the mill [33][34] Question: Significance of being a FAST-41 covered project for South Railroad - Being a covered project provides tools for efficient review and reduces uncertainty, with an acceleration in the permitting process expected [39][40] Question: Update on permitting needed at Camino Rojo - Engagement with Mexican authorities is ongoing, and confidence in permit approval is high due to demonstrated efforts by the government [44]

Q3 2025 Performance - Total gold production reached 79,645 ounces, and total gold sold was 78,857 ounces[24] - The average realized gold price was $3,417 per ounce[32] - Operating cash flow was $113 million, or $0.34 per share[31] - The company reported a net income of $49.3 million, or $0.15 per share[31] - Adjusted earnings were $73.0 million, or $0.22 per share[31] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were $1,641 per ounce[30] Operations - Musselwhite milled 329,634 tonnes of ore with a gold grade of 5.87 g/t, producing 57,586 ounces of gold[24] - Camino Rojo stacked 2,793,951 tonnes of ore with a gold head grade of 0.40 g/t, producing 22,059 ounces of gold[24] South Railroad Project - An updated Feasibility Study is expected in Q4 2025[26] - Construction is expected to begin in mid-2026, with first gold production targeted for 2028[28] Guidance - The company updated its 2025 gold production guidance to 265,000 - 285,000 ounces[69]

Revenue and Earnings - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $274.973 million, a significant increase of 176.5% compared to $99.307 million in Q3 2024[3] - Nine-month revenue for 2025 was $679.390 million, up 170.5% from $251.155 million in the same period of 2024[3] - Earnings from mining operations for Q3 2025 were $131.281 million, compared to $64.735 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 102.3% increase[3] - The company reported a net income of $49.273 million for Q3 2025, compared to $21.144 million in Q3 2024, representing a 132.5% increase[3] - Income for the period ending September 30, 2025, was $27.653 million, while other comprehensive loss amounted to $1.855 million[5] - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $0.15, compared to $0.07 for the same period in 2024[114] - Diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $0.08, compared to $0.19 for the same period in 2024[115] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, amounted to $1.973 billion, a substantial increase from $598.349 million as of December 31, 2024[2] - Current liabilities increased to $442.284 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $51.565 million at the end of 2024[2] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2025 were $326.920 million, up from $160.849 million at the end of 2024[2] - The company’s total shareholders' equity increased to $573.483 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $507.445 million at the end of 2024[2] - As of September 30, 2025, total long-term debt amounted to $389.2 million, including $119.0 million in current liabilities and $170.2 million in convertible notes[17] Costs and Expenses - Mining and processing costs for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $87,898 million, up from $20,188 million in 2024, reflecting a rise of approximately 335.5%[39] - Total cost of sales for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $91,284 million, compared to $20,509 million in 2024, indicating an increase of around 344.5%[39] - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $8,583 million, compared to $4,018 million in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 113.5%[42] - Interest and accretion expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $40,109 million, significantly higher than $5,888 million in 2024, an increase of about 580.5%[43] Acquisitions and Investments - The acquisition of the Musselwhite Mine was completed on February 28, 2025, enhancing the company's production capabilities[8] - The Company acquired Musselwhite Mine for a total consideration of $811.130 million, including an upfront payment of $794.130 million and contingent consideration of up to $40 million[50] - The acquisition was financed through $250 million from a syndicate of lenders, $360 million in gold prepayment, and $200 million in senior unsecured convertible notes[51] - The equity component of convertible notes issued was valued at $1 million, reflecting the financing for the Musselwhite Mine acquisition[5] Shareholder Information - The weighted average number of diluted shares outstanding increased to 353.8 million in Q3 2025 from 334.6 million in Q3 2024[3] - The total number of common shares outstanding increased to 337,560 thousand as of September 30, 2025[5] - The company issued 2,221 thousand shares for acquisition purposes, resulting in an increase of $8.937 million in common shares[5] - The company issued 23,392,397 common share purchase warrants with an exercise price of C$11.50 per share, which will expire on February 28, 2030[70] Tax and Regulatory Matters - Income tax expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $95.22 million, compared to $63.21 million for the same period in 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of 50.6%[139] - Current income tax expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $69,508, compared to $38,960 for the same period in 2024[166] - The Mexican Special Mining Duty increased from 7.5% to 8.5% effective January 1, 2025[166] Operational Highlights - The company plans to continue its market expansion and product development initiatives, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and exploring new opportunities[4] - The company is not economically dependent on any specific customers, with two customers contributing approximately 78% of total revenues during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[37] - The company delivered 12,074 ounces of gold under the prepay agreements in the three months ended September 30, 2025, recognizing revenue of $35.2 million[98] Financial Instruments and Risk Management - The fair value of the Credit Facility at September 30, 2025, was estimated at $220 million, using a discount rate of 7.4%[160] - The total notional amount of outstanding currency forward contracts at September 30, 2025, was C$132 million ($97.2 million), with a weighted-average forward rate of C$1.3586 per $1.00[60] - The fair value of the redemption right associated with the Convertible Notes is measured at fair value through profit or loss, considering factors such as market price and credit risk[65] Employee Compensation - Share-based payments recognized during the period totaled $3.412 million, indicating ongoing employee compensation strategies[5] - Key management personnel compensation for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $5.313 million, up from $4.725 million in the same period of 2024, representing an increase of 12.4%[134] - The number of restricted share units (RSUs) outstanding increased from 843,183 in 2024 to 970,863 in 2025[123]