Core Viewpoint - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for OneSpan (OSPN) is 2.00, indicating a Buy, based on recommendations from four brokerage firms, with 50% of these being Strong Buy [2][5]. Brokerage Recommendation Trends - The ABR of 2.00 suggests a positive outlook for OneSpan, but reliance solely on this metric may not be advisable due to studies showing limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][10]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a bias in their recommendations, with a tendency to issue five "Strong Buy" ratings for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank categorizes stocks into five groups, from Strong Buy to Strong Sell, and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank for OneSpan is currently 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious stance despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [15]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OneSpan's earnings for the current year remains unchanged at $1.45, suggesting stability in analysts' views regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - The unchanged consensus estimate, along with other factors, has contributed to the Zacks Rank 3 for OneSpan, indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [15].

Group 1 - OneSpan's stock closed at $15.82, reflecting a +1.87% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.11% [1] - Over the past month, OneSpan's shares have decreased by 1.74%, while the Computer and Technology sector gained 5.67% and the S&P 500 gained 3.92% [1] - The upcoming financial results are expected to show an EPS of $0.27, indicating a 12.9% decline year-over-year [2] Group 2 - OneSpan's full-year earnings estimate is $1.45 per share, with revenue expected to remain at $0 million, representing a year-over-year earnings increase of +9.85% [2] - Recent analyst estimate revisions are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive changes indicating optimism [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, currently ranks OneSpan as 2 (Buy), with a stagnant EPS estimate over the past month [5] Group 3 - OneSpan's Forward P/E ratio is 10.71, indicating a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 28 [5] - The Internet - Software industry, which includes OneSpan, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 46, placing it in the top 19% of over 250 industries [6] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the strength of the industry [6]

Company Performance - OneSpan (OSPN) closed at $15.49, reflecting a -4.68% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.13% loss [1] - The stock has increased by 0.37% over the past month, lagging behind the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 7.36% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.55% [1] Earnings Forecast - OneSpan is expected to report an EPS of $0.27, indicating a 12.9% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, analysts predict earnings of $1.45 per share and revenue of $0 million, representing changes of +9.85% and 0% from last year, respectively [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for OneSpan are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - OneSpan's Forward P/E ratio is currently 11.21, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 28.14 [6] - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 53, placing it in the top 22% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown that 1 stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - OneSpan currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS projection remaining stagnant over the past 30 days [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on OneSpan (OSPN), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage firms and retail investors [1][5][10]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - OneSpan has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a Buy, based on recommendations from four brokerage firms, with two of them rated as Strong Buy, representing 50% of all recommendations [2][14]. - The article suggests that relying solely on brokerage recommendations may not be a sound investment strategy, as studies indicate these recommendations often fail to guide investors effectively towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5][10]. Group 2: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable tool for predicting stock price movements, categorizing stocks from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), and is based on earnings estimate revisions rather than brokerage recommendations [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is timely and reflects the latest earnings estimate revisions, while the ABR may not always be up-to-date, leading to potential discrepancies in investment guidance [12]. Group 3: Earnings Estimates for OneSpan - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OneSpan has increased by 5.4% over the past month to $1.45, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for OneSpan, suggesting that the Buy-equivalent ABR may serve as a useful guide for investors [14].

Group 1 - The article discusses the services provided by IPO Edge, which includes actionable information on growth stocks, first-look IPO filings, previews on upcoming IPOs, an IPO calendar, a database of U.S. IPOs, and a comprehensive guide to IPO investing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on OneSpan (OSPN), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage analysts and retail investors [1][10]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - OneSpan has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a Buy, based on recommendations from four brokerage firms, with two of those being Strong Buy, representing 50% of all recommendations [2][5]. - Despite the ABR suggesting a Buy for OneSpan, the article cautions against making investment decisions solely based on this information due to studies showing limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][10]. Group 2: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than the ABR, as brokerage analysts revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, making it a more timely predictor of future stock prices [12]. Group 3: Earnings Estimates for OneSpan - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OneSpan has increased by 5.4% over the past month to $1.45, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for OneSpan, suggesting that the Buy-equivalent ABR may serve as a useful guide for investors [14].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of efficiency ratios in evaluating a company's potential for profitability and stock performance [1] Efficiency Ratios - **Receivables Turnover**: This ratio measures a company's ability to extend credit and collect debts, with a high ratio indicating effective collection practices and quality customers [2] - **Asset Utilization**: This ratio assesses how well a company converts its assets into sales, with higher values suggesting greater efficiency [3] - **Inventory Turnover**: This ratio indicates a company's ability to manage inventory relative to its cost of goods sold, where a high value reflects efficient inventory management [4] - **Operating Margin**: This ratio measures the efficiency of a company in controlling operating expenses, with higher values indicating better expense management compared to peers [5] Screening Criteria - The screening process identified stocks with efficiency ratios above industry averages, narrowing down from over 7,906 stocks to eight candidates [7] - A favorable Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) was also included in the screening criteria to enhance profitability [6] Selected Stocks - **Quad Graphics (QUAD)**: Specializes in print and multichannel solutions, with an average four-quarter earnings surprise of 71.8% [7] - **ONESPAN (OSPN)**: Develops security software and e-signature solutions, achieving an average four-quarter earnings surprise of 38.6% [8] - **ChampionX (CHX)**: Provides chemistry solutions and technologies for oil and gas production, with an average four-quarter earnings surprise of 9% [9] - **BancFirst (BANF)**: A bank holding company offering commercial banking services, with an average four-quarter earnings surprise of 7% [10]

Core Viewpoint - OneSpan (OSPN) shares have increased by 11.8% in the past four weeks, closing at $15.17, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' price targets suggesting a mean estimate of $19.33, representing a 27.4% upside [1] Price Targets and Estimates - The average price targets range from a low of $15 to a high of $23, with a standard deviation of $4.04, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a decline of 1.1%, while the highest estimate indicates a potential upside of 51.6% [2] - Analysts' consensus on price targets should be approached with caution, as their ability to set unbiased targets has been questioned [3][7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Analysts are optimistic about OSPN's earnings prospects, with a strong agreement in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price movements [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 5.4%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank and Investment Implications - OSPN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While consensus price targets may not reliably indicate the extent of potential gains, they can provide guidance on the direction of price movement [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record high adjusted EBITDA of $23 million, nearly 15% higher than last year's first quarter record of $20 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 36% of revenue [7][15] - First quarter revenue was $63.4 million, a 2% decline compared to the same period last year [16] - First quarter gross margin increased to 74% from 73% in the prior year [16][17] - GAAP operating income was $17.2 million compared to $14.1 million in the first quarter of last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription revenue grew 9%, driven by demand for software authentication, app shielding, and e-signature solutions [8][15] - In the security business, subscription revenue grew 7%, while overall security revenue declined 5% [20] - Digital agreements revenue grew 9%, with subscription revenue increasing by 13% [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue mix by region remained consistent, with EMEA accounting for 49%, the Americas for 33%, and Asia Pacific for 18% [23] - The company expects potential tariff-related costs of up to $1 million for the full year 2025, primarily affecting hardware revenue [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue optimizing its cost structure and driving efficient revenue growth while maintaining profitability commitments [7][12] - There is a focus on operational excellence and a balanced capital allocation strategy, including potential increases in capital return to shareholders and targeted M&A [14][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving double-digit subscription revenue growth for the full year 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties [24][26] - The company is monitoring the impact of tariffs and foreign currency fluctuations but remains optimistic about its core business [25][61] Other Important Information - The company generated $29 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with $105 million in cash on hand [13][23] - The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, totaling approximately $4.6 million [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on hardware revenue - Management indicated that Europe is the largest market for hardware, with minimal tariff impact observed to date [32][34] Question: Quantifying the impact of large deals slipping into Q2 - Management clarified that the two large contracts would not impact Q1 ARR as their start date was April 1 [40] Question: Confidence in maintaining guidance amid macro uncertainty - Management noted a strong start to the year in terms of bookings, contributing to their confidence in maintaining guidance [44][46] Question: Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations for the full year - Management explained that Q1 typically has a favorable revenue mix, and they expect a shift in the mix for the remainder of the year [50][52] Question: Revenue derived from outside the US - Approximately 90% of security revenue comes from outside the US, while the digital agreements business has a more balanced mix [53] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management indicated a focus on targeted M&A in the security sector to expand capabilities, alongside potential buybacks or Dutch auctions [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record high adjusted EBITDA of $23 million, nearly 15% higher than last year's first quarter record of $20 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 36% of revenue [7][15][19] - First quarter revenue was $63.4 million, a 2% decline compared to the same period last year [16][20] - First quarter gross margin increased to 74% from 73% in the prior year [16][17] - GAAP operating income was $17.2 million compared to $14.1 million in the first quarter of last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription revenue grew 9%, driven by software authentication, app shielding, and e-signature solutions [8][12] - Security subscription revenue increased 7%, while digital agreements subscription revenue grew 13% [12][21] - Security solutions revenue declined 5% to $47.7 million, while digital agreements revenue grew 9% to $15.7 million [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue mix by region remained consistent, with EMEA accounting for 49%, Americas 33%, and Asia Pacific 18% [23] - The company expects potential tariff-related costs of up to $1 million for the full year 2025 due to hardware revenue exposure [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue optimizing its cost structure and driving efficient revenue growth while maintaining profitability commitments [7][14][28] - There is a focus on operational excellence and a balanced capital allocation strategy, including potential increases in capital return to shareholders and targeted M&A [14][27][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving double-digit subscription revenue growth for the full year 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties [24][46] - The company is monitoring the impact of tariffs and foreign currency fluctuations on its business [25][61] Other Important Information - The company generated $29 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with $105 million in cash on hand [13][23] - The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, totaling approximately $4.6 million [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on hardware revenue - Management indicated that Europe is the largest market for hardware, with minimal tariff impact observed to date [32][34] Question: Quantifying the impact of large deals slipping into Q2 - Management clarified that the two large contracts did not impact Q1 ARR as their start date was in April [41] Question: Confidence in maintaining guidance amid macro uncertainty - Management noted a strong start to the year in terms of bookings, contributing to their confidence in maintaining guidance [46][47] Question: Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations for the full year - Management explained that Q1 typically has a favorable revenue mix, and they expect a shift in mix for the remainder of the year [51][52] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management discussed potential returns to shareholders through dividends, buybacks, and targeted M&A, focusing on expanding security capabilities [68][70]