Core Viewpoint - Oxford Industries (OXM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues in its upcoming quarterly results, which could significantly influence its near-term stock price [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Oxford Industries' quarterly earnings is $1.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.6%. Revenues are projected to be $385.23 million, down 3.3% from the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.97% lower over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Oxford Industries is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.92%. This suggests a bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook, but the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and this rank suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Oxford Industries was expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of $1.37, resulting in a surprise of +7.03% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - While Oxford Industries is viewed as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, it is essential to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [15][17].

Company Announcement - Oxford Industries, Inc. plans to release its first quarter fiscal 2025 financial results after the market close on June 11, 2025 [1] - A conference call will be held at 4:30 p.m. ET on the same day, hosted by the CEO and CFO to discuss the financial results [1] Webcast Information - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the company's website [2] - A replay of the webcast will be accessible through June 25, 2025, both on the website and via phone [2] Company Overview - Oxford is a leader in the apparel industry, owning brands such as Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was [3] - The company's stock has been traded on the New York Stock Exchange since 1964 under the symbol OXM [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the use of cookies to enhance user experience and analyze website traffic [1] Group 1 - The company utilizes cookies to improve user experience [1] - Data collected from site usage may be shared with analytics partners [1] - Consent is required from users to store cookies on their devices [1]

Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales for Fiscal 2024 were $1,516,601, a decrease of 3.5% from $1,571,475 in Fiscal 2023[46] - Tommy Bahama accounted for 57% of total net sales, generating $869,604 in Fiscal 2024, down from $898,807 in Fiscal 2023[47] - Lilly Pulitzer's net sales were $323,917 in Fiscal 2024, a decline of 5.7% from $343,499 in Fiscal 2023[46] - Johnny Was reported an operating loss of $8,763 in Fiscal 2024, following a $111 million impairment charge in Fiscal 2023[46] Sales Channels - Direct to consumer operations represented 84% of Tommy Bahama's net sales in Fiscal 2024, with e-commerce contributing $222 million, or 26% of Tommy Bahama's net sales[48][49] - Lilly Pulitzer's direct to consumer operations accounted for 83% of net sales in Fiscal 2024, with e-commerce generating $157 million, or 48% of total net sales[65] - Johnny Was's direct to consumer operations represented 81% of net sales in Fiscal 2024, with the website generating $84 million, or 43% of total net sales[76] Retail Performance - Tommy Bahama's full-price retail stores generated sales per gross square foot of approximately $770 in Fiscal 2024, down from $815 in Fiscal 2023[51] - Full-price retail store sales per gross square foot for Lilly Pulitzer increased to approximately $748 in Fiscal 2024 from $737 in Fiscal 2023[69] - Johnny Was full-price retail store sales per gross square foot decreased to approximately $614 in Fiscal 2024 from $664 in Fiscal 2023[77] Store Expansion - Tommy Bahama plans to open four Marlin Bar locations in Fiscal 2025, including conversions of existing full-price retail stores[58] - Lilly Pulitzer opened a net total of four new stores in Fiscal 2024, bringing the total to 64 stores, with plans to open at least four new stores in Fiscal 2025[72] - Southern Tide opened 11 new stores during Fiscal 2024, increasing the total to 30 stores, with plans for at least five additional openings in Fiscal 2025[90] Wholesale Operations - Wholesale sales for Tommy Bahama accounted for 16% of net sales in Fiscal 2024, with 12% of sales coming from the top 10 wholesale customers[62] - Johnny Was's wholesale operations accounted for 19% of net sales in Fiscal 2024, with 40% of wholesale sales to department stores[84] - Lilly Pulitzer's net sales to its 10 largest wholesale customers represented 10% of total net sales in Fiscal 2024, with the largest customer accounting for less than 5%[73] Marketing and Advertising - In Fiscal 2024, the company incurred $111 million in advertising expenses, representing 7% of net sales[95] - Marketing initiatives have increased online and in-store traffic, with promotional events putting downward pressure on direct-to-consumer gross margins[97] - The company continues to enhance its digital marketing strategies to engage consumers and drive traffic to its e-commerce platforms[96] Supply Chain and Sourcing - The company paid total duties of $60 million on imported products in Fiscal 2024, with an average duty rate of approximately 19%[110] - During Fiscal 2024, 39% of apparel and related products were sourced from China, and 24% from Vietnam[105] - The company sources products from approximately 260 suppliers, with no individual supplier providing more than 10% of total purchases in Fiscal 2024[104] Financial Management and Risks - As of February 1, 2025, the company had $31 million of borrowings outstanding under its U.S. Revolving Credit Agreement, with a weighted average interest rate of 6%[378] - A 100 basis point increase in interest rates would increase interest expense by less than $1 million based on the current variable-rate debt[378] - The company has 97% of its consolidated net sales in the United States, indicating limited exposure to foreign currency exchange rate changes[380] - The company does not anticipate that foreign currency changes will materially impact consolidated net sales, operating income, or net earnings in the near term[380] - Inflation risks are managed through negotiating product prices in advance, selective price increases, and cost containment initiatives[381] - The company expects to increase debt levels during Fiscal 2025 to fund planned capital expenditures, share repurchases, dividends, and working capital needs[378] - The company is exposed to market risks from changes in interest rates, commodity prices, and foreign currency exchange rates[375]

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective, rather than market-driven dynamics [1] - The articles emphasize understanding the long-term earnings power of companies and the competitive dynamics within their industries [1] - The majority of recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions and a belief that only a small fraction of companies are suitable for buying at any given time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors and introduce a healthy skepticism towards a generally bullish market [1] - There is a clear distinction made between the author's opinions and professional investment advice, highlighting the need for readers to conduct their own due diligence [2][3]

Group 1: Oxford Industries Inc (OXM) - OXM stock is down 4.1% at $60, having previously hit a four-year low of $53.23, despite beating fourth-quarter earnings [1] - The company forecasts a lower-than-expected full-year profit due to declining consumer demand [1] - OXM has seen a significant decline of 25.2% in 2025 and nearly 50% over the last 12 months [2] Group 2: Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) - LULU stock is down 14.2% at $289.73, impacted by a disappointing forecast citing tariff concerns, inflation, and weak demand [3] - Following the grim outlook, 15 analysts have reduced their price targets, with BMO cutting it from $313 to $302 [4] - Despite the downturn, 17 out of 30 firms still rate LULU as a "buy" or better, with an average 12-month price target of $398.85, representing a 38.2% premium to current levels [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated net sales for fiscal 2024 decreased by 3% to $1.52 billion, with a notable impact from a 53rd week in 2023 contributing approximately $16 million to sales [16][17] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $6.68, at the top end of guidance [20] - Adjusted gross margin contracted by 80 basis points to 63.2%, primarily due to a higher proportion of sales during promotional events [17][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in full-price brick-and-mortar locations decreased by 2%, while e-commerce sales fell by 4% [16][17] - Food and beverage and outlet locations saw a 13% sales increase, driven by new locations [17] - The wholesale channel experienced a 10% decline, with a $31 million decrease attributed to struggles in the specialty store business [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales (comps) increased by 2% in December but fell by 3% in January and further declined by 9% in February [6][16] - The company anticipates a cautious consumer environment, with expectations of hesitance in spending between major shopping events [7][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on maximizing long-term shareholder value, owning a portfolio of lifestyle brands, evoking happiness in consumers, and generating cash for reinvestment [8][10] - Plans for fiscal 2025 include enhancing the omni-channel platform, opening approximately 20 new stores, and completing a new distribution center [14][15][29] - The company aims to protect brand integrity and avoid short-term fixes that could harm long-term prospects [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term opportunities despite current headwinds, emphasizing the importance of controlling controllables [7][10] - The outlook for fiscal 2025 includes projected net sales between $1.49 billion and $1.53 billion, with expectations of a decline in comps [22][23] - Management noted that the first half of fiscal 2025 may see strong sales due to upcoming holidays, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain cautious [6][7] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a $100 million share repurchase program and increased its quarterly dividend by 3% [15][29] - Inventory at the end of fiscal 2024 was up 5%, primarily due to early shipments from Asia ahead of new tariffs [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on first quarter guidance and headwinds - Management noted Lilly is performing well, while other brands are experiencing some challenges, particularly with the Easter shift affecting March comps [32][33] Question: Observations on wholesale partners' order books - Management acknowledged concerns about major retailers pulling back orders but highlighted strong performance on retail floors [36][37] Question: Details on Johnny Was brand performance and plans - Management indicated a focus on improving retail performance and rebuilding the wholesale business, with an emphasis on classic collection products [38][39] Question: Customer response to new product assortments - Management confirmed that newness in product assortments is driving business, particularly in major brands like Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer [43][46] Question: Tariff impacts and mitigation strategies - Management discussed the anticipated tariff impact of $9 million to $10 million and ongoing efforts to mitigate these costs through various strategies [68][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated net sales for fiscal 2024 decreased by 3% to $1.52 billion, with a notable impact from a 53rd week in 2023 contributing approximately $16 million in sales [26] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $6.68, at the top end of guidance [33] - Adjusted gross margin contracted by 80 basis points to 63.2%, primarily due to a higher proportion of sales occurring during promotional events [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in full-price brick-and-mortar locations decreased by 2%, driven by mid-single-digit negative comps, partially offset by new store openings [26] - E-commerce sales decreased by 4%, while food and beverage and outlet locations saw sales increases of 1% and 3%, respectively [27] - The wholesale channel experienced a significant decline, decreasing by $31 million or 10% due to challenges in the specialty store business [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comp sales for December increased by 2%, but January saw a decline of 3%, with February experiencing a further drop of 9% [7][9] - The company anticipates a continued cautious consumer sentiment impacting spending in the near term [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on maximizing long-term shareholder value, owning a portfolio of lifestyle brands, evoking happiness in consumers, and generating cash for reinvestment [12][13][15][16] - Plans for fiscal 2025 include opening approximately 20 new stores and enhancing the omnichannel platform [22][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the uncertainty in the marketplace and expects consumer hesitance to continue, particularly in the first half of fiscal 2025 [11] - The company remains optimistic about long-term opportunities despite short-term challenges, emphasizing the importance of brand integrity and customer focus [14][16] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $125 million in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025, primarily for the completion of a new distribution center and new store openings [44] - A 3% increase in the quarterly dividend was approved, raising it from $0.67 to $0.69 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the different headwinds mentioned for the first quarter? - Management noted that Lilly is currently the strongest performer, while Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was are expected to have negative comps [52][53] Question: Are you observing any changes in wholesale order books? - Management indicated that there is caution among wholesale partners, but performance on retail floors remains strong [56][94] Question: What initiatives are being taken to improve conversion rates? - The company is focusing on better product knowledge among associates, improving website functionality, and enhancing marketing efficiency [73] Question: What is the outlook for March sales? - Management expressed that March feels better than February, with expectations for a positive comp in April due to the Easter shift [81] Question: How is the company managing SG&A growth? - Management is actively looking at marketing efficiency, vendor negotiations, and has made some personnel reductions to control SG&A [87]

Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales for Q4 fiscal 2024 were $391 million, a decrease of 3% from $404 million in Q4 fiscal 2023[2]. - For the full fiscal year 2024, consolidated net sales decreased 3% to $1.52 billion compared to $1.57 billion in fiscal 2023[3]. - Net sales for Fiscal 2024 were $1,516.6 million, a decrease of 3.5% compared to $1,571.5 million in Fiscal 2023[31]. - Consolidated net sales for the company decreased by 3.4% to $390.5 million in Q4 2024, compared to $404.4 million in Q4 2023[36]. - Tommy Bahama's net sales decreased by 2.5% to $237.6 million in Q4 2024, compared to $243.8 million in Q4 2023[35]. - Lilly Pulitzer's net sales fell by 5.7% to $74.0 million in Q4 2024, consistent with the previous year's $78.4 million[35]. - Johnny Was reported a 9.3% decline in net sales, totaling $47.4 million in Q4 2024, down from $52.2 million in Q4 2023[35]. Earnings and Profitability - Diluted EPS on a GAAP basis for Q4 fiscal 2024 was $1.13, compared to a loss of $3.85 in Q4 fiscal 2023[2]. - Adjusted EPS for fiscal 2024 was $6.68, down from $10.15 in fiscal 2023[3]. - Operating income for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2024 was $20.3 million, compared to an operating loss of $81.5 million in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2023[31]. - Net earnings for Fiscal 2024 were $93.0 million, an increase of 53.2% from $60.7 million in Fiscal 2023[33]. - Basic net earnings per share for Fiscal 2024 were $5.94, up from $3.89 in Fiscal 2023[31]. - Net earnings for the consolidated entity reached $17.9 million in Q4 2024, compared to a loss of $60.1 million in Q4 2023, marking a 129.8% improvement[35]. - Net earnings per diluted share improved to $1.13 in Q4 2024, compared to a loss of $3.85 in Q4 2023, reflecting a 129.3% increase[35]. Margins and Expenses - Gross margin for fiscal 2024 was 62.9% on a GAAP basis, down from 63.4% in the prior year[7]. - Gross profit for Fiscal 2024 was $954.6 million, down from $995.6 million in Fiscal 2023, reflecting a gross margin of 62.9%[31]. - Gross profit for the consolidated entity fell by 3.9% to $236.7 million in Q4 2024, down from $246.3 million in Q4 2023[36]. - The company's SG&A expenses increased by 1.2% to $220.2 million in Q4 2024, compared to $217.5 million in Q4 2023[36]. - The gross margin for the consolidated entity was 60.6% in Q4 2024, slightly down from 60.9% in Q4 2023[36]. Future Guidance - The company expects fiscal 2025 net sales to be between $1.49 billion and $1.53 billion, compared to $1.52 billion in fiscal 2024[15]. - For Q1 fiscal 2025, net sales are expected to be between $375 million and $395 million, compared to $398 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[16]. - For Fiscal 2025, the company provided guidance for net earnings per diluted share of $4.21 - $4.61, compared to actual earnings of $5.87 in Fiscal 2024[37]. Capital and Assets - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are projected to be approximately $125 million, down from $134 million in fiscal 2024[18]. - Total assets increased to $1,289.8 million as of February 1, 2025, compared to $1,097.8 million as of February 3, 2024[29]. - Total current liabilities increased to $248.3 million as of February 1, 2025, compared to $240.6 million as of February 3, 2024[29]. - The company repaid $401.6 million in revolving credit arrangements during Fiscal 2024[33]. Shareholder Actions - The company initiated a $100 million share repurchase authorization, completing a $50 million program in Q1 fiscal 2025[13][14]. Store Locations - The company reported a total of 315 direct-to-consumer locations by the end of Q4 Fiscal 2024, an increase from 309 locations in Q3 Fiscal 2024[39]. - The number of full-price retail stores for Johnny Was increased to 75 by the end of Q4 Fiscal 2024, up from 73 in Q3 Fiscal 2024[39]. - The company reported a total of 166 Tommy Bahama locations by the end of Q4 Fiscal 2024, a slight decrease from 168 in Q3 Fiscal 2024[39]. - The company reported 30 Southern Tide full-price retail stores by the end of Q4 Fiscal 2024, an increase from 28 in Q3 Fiscal 2024[39]. Other Financial Adjustments - The effective tax rate for fiscal 2024 was 20%, compared to 19% for fiscal 2023, with a projected return to a normalized rate of 25% in fiscal 2025[11]. - The company experienced a LIFO adjustment impact of $0.00 in Q4 Fiscal 2024, with an adjustment of $0.11 in Q1 Fiscal 2025[37]. - The company incurred impairment charges of $113.6 million in Fiscal 2023 related to goodwill and intangible assets[31]. - The company incurred Johnny Was distribution center relocation costs of $0.14 in Q4 Fiscal 2024, compared to $0.00 in Q4 Fiscal 2023[37].

Core Insights - Oxford Industries, Inc. reported a consolidated net sales of $391 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, a decrease of 3% compared to $404 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 [2] - The company achieved diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13 on a GAAP basis, a significant improvement from a loss of $3.85 in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2024, consolidated net sales decreased by 3% to $1.52 billion, while EPS increased to $5.87 from $3.82 in fiscal 2023 [3] Financial Performance - Fourth quarter consolidated net sales were $391 million, down from $404 million in the prior year, reflecting a 3% decline [2][4] - Full fiscal year 2024 net sales were $1.52 billion, a decrease from $1.57 billion in fiscal 2023, also a 3% decline [3][6] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.37, down from $1.90 in the previous year [2] - Full-year adjusted EPS was $6.68, compared to $10.15 in fiscal 2023 [3] Segment Performance - Tommy Bahama's fourth quarter sales were $237.6 million, down 3% from $243.8 million in the prior year [4] - Lilly Pulitzer's fourth quarter sales decreased by 6% to $74.0 million [4] - Johnny Was experienced a 9% decline in fourth quarter sales, totaling $47.4 million [4] - Emerging Brands saw a 5% increase in fourth quarter sales, reaching $31.6 million [4] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - Inventory increased by $8 million, or 5%, on a LIFO basis compared to the end of fiscal 2023 [7] - Cash flow from operations was $194 million in fiscal 2024, down from $244 million in fiscal 2023 [8] - Long-term debt rose by $2 million to $31 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [9] Dividend and Share Repurchase - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.69 per share, a 3% increase from the previous dividend [11] - The company completed a $50 million share repurchase program, buying back 842,000 shares at an average price of $59.38 [12][13] Outlook - For fiscal 2025, the company expects net sales between $1.49 billion and $1.53 billion [14] - GAAP EPS for fiscal 2025 is projected to be between $4.21 and $4.61, down from $5.87 in fiscal 2024 [14] - The first quarter of fiscal 2025 is expected to see net sales between $375 million and $395 million [15]