Core Insights - Fairfax Financial's latest 13F indicates a strong commitment to real assets, energy, and restructuring platforms with minimal portfolio turnover, reflecting satisfaction with current holdings rather than tactical changes [1] Company Summaries - **Orla Mining (ORLA)**: Maintained a position of 56.8 million shares valued at $610.5 million, representing approximately 29.6% of the portfolio, indicating confidence in asset durability and inflation hedging [2] - **Occidental Petroleum (OXY)**: Held 6.05 million shares worth $285.9 million, about 13.9% of the portfolio, with no changes made, suggesting satisfaction with risk/reward dynamics as the company focuses on deleveraging [3] - **BlackBerry (BB)**: Reduced position by 5,389,380 shares to 35.4 million shares valued at $172.3 million, approximately 8.4% of the portfolio, reflecting a pragmatic de-risking approach amid ongoing restructuring [4] - **Kraft Heinz (KHC)**: Increased position by 235,000 shares to 5.12 million shares valued at $133.2 million, around 6.5% of the portfolio, consistent with a strategy of accumulating cash flow at discounted valuations [5] - **Molson Coors (TAP)**: Added 71,571 shares for a total of 1.29 million shares valued at $58.4 million, approximately 2.8% of the portfolio, indicating a preference for staples with pricing power [6] - **Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)**: Trimmed position by 14,652 shares to 58,248 shares valued at $35.7 million, about 1.7% of the portfolio, reflecting a strategy to reduce passive index exposure [7] - **Helmrich & Payne (HP)**: Increased position by 200,000 shares to 1.17 million shares valued at $25.9 million, approximately 1.3% of the portfolio, indicating a thematic bet on energy services and capital discipline [8] - **Full Exits**: Autohome (ATHM) and Lifeway Foods (LWAY) were fully exited, reflecting a cleanup of non-core positions [9] Portfolio Themes - **Low Turnover = High Conviction**: The stability of the portfolio suggests that Fairfax is already positioned for the macro environment anticipated last year [11] - **Hard Asset & Energy Bias**: The focus on ORLA, OXY, and HP highlights a preference for inflation hedging and real asset valuations [12] - **Restructuring Optionality**: BlackBerry is viewed as a multi-year operational value unlock rather than a growth investment [13] - **Cash Flow Defensives**: KHC and TAP are seen as providing income stability and potential for margin recovery [14] Takeaway - Fairfax remains committed to a strategy focused on value and optionality rather than momentum or AI trends, emphasizing hard assets and cash-flow consumers to realize intrinsic value [15]

Core Viewpoint - Western Oil (OXY.US) CEO stated that banks are returning to the oil industry to provide funding, highlighting the need for collaboration with the U.S. Energy Information Administration to communicate the importance of the oil and energy sector to the tech community and investors [1] Group 1 - The CEO emphasized the resurgence of banks in financing the oil sector, indicating a shift in financial support towards energy companies [1] - There is a request for assistance from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to help articulate the significance of the oil and energy industry [1] - The focus is on enhancing communication with the technology sector and investors regarding the role of oil in the energy landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear indication that past performance does not guarantee future results, underscoring the uncertainty in investment outcomes [4]. - The article expresses that no recommendations or advice are being provided regarding the suitability of investments for particular investors [4]. Group 2 - The author discloses that there are no current stock, option, or similar derivative positions in any of the companies mentioned, nor any plans to initiate such positions in the near future [2]. - The article is written independently, reflecting the author's personal opinions without any compensation from the companies discussed [2]. - There is no business relationship between the author and any of the companies whose stocks are mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced new amendments to its contracts in the Delaware Basin, which involve renegotiations with Occidental Petroleum and a new arrangement with ConocoPhillips, aimed at enhancing its operational framework and long-term strategic benefits [1][2] Group 1: Contract Amendments - The company renegotiated natural-gas gathering and processing contracts in the Delaware Basin with a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum [1] - A new natural-gas gathering and processing arrangement was established with ConocoPhillips for a portion of its Delaware Basin natural gas volumes [1] - These agreements reset Delaware Basin natural gas fees in exchange for WES common units from Occidental, promoting the development of acreage supported by the company's systems [1] Group 2: Strategic Realignment - The transaction realigns the company's equity capital structure to better accommodate anticipated changes that will provide long-term strategic benefits [2] - These changes signify a significant step in the company's evolution as a stand-alone midstream enterprise, simplifying its contract portfolio and diversifying its customer base [2] - The amendments reinforce the company's ability to deliver enduring value for its stakeholders [2]

Core Viewpoint - Western Midstream is positioned as an attractive passive income investment due to its stable cash flows and high dividend yield supported by long-term contracts with major energy companies [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Structure - Western Midstream operates essential energy midstream assets that generate stable cash flow, supporting an 8.8% cash distribution yield [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of $17 billion, with a gross margin of 53.34% and a dividend yield of 8.86% [6]. - The restructured contracts with Occidental Petroleum will not impact Western Midstream's free cash flow, as the company expects to offset reduced near-term cash flows with distribution savings and cost-saving initiatives [6][7]. Group 2: Contractual Agreements - Western Midstream has renegotiated natural gas gathering and processing contracts with Occidental Petroleum, transitioning to a simplified fixed-fee structure that reduces Occidental's near-term costs and enhances production growth [3]. - Occidental will transfer 15.3 million common units of Western Midstream, valued at $610 million, resulting in a decrease of Occidental's interest in the MLP from 42% to 40% [3]. - A new gas-gathering and processing agreement with ConocoPhillips will further diversify revenue, reducing related party revenue from Occidental by over 10% [4]. Group 3: Growth Prospects - The company anticipates maintaining a net leverage ratio near 3.0 times, even after a recent acquisition and planned capital spending of $1.1 billion in 2026, indicating a conservative financial strategy [7]. - Western Midstream's growth capital spending plan includes projects like the North Loving II gas processing plant and Pathfinder Pipeline, which are expected to fuel cash flow growth in the coming years [9]. - The MLP aims to deliver low-to-mid single-digit annual distribution growth, supported by predictable cash flows from long-term contracts [9].

Core Viewpoint - Western Midstream Partners has successfully renegotiated contracts with Occidental Petroleum for natural gas gathering and processing in the Delaware Basin [1] Company Summary - Western Midstream Partners is involved in natural gas gathering and processing operations [1] - The renegotiation of contracts indicates a strategic move to enhance operational efficiency and potentially improve financial performance [1] Industry Summary - The Delaware Basin remains a critical area for natural gas production, and partnerships between midstream companies and producers like Occidental Petroleum are essential for optimizing resource extraction and processing [1]

Financial Performance - Average diluted shares outstanding for Q4 2025 were 1,002.9 million shares[4]. - Average realized oil prices for Q4 2025 were $58.99 per barrel worldwide, with U.S. prices at $58.01 and international prices at $64.68[5]. - Average realized NGL prices were $16.66 per barrel worldwide, with U.S. prices at $15.78 and international prices at $23.78[5]. - Average realized natural gas prices were $1.29 per Mcf worldwide, with U.S. prices at $1.12 and international prices at $1.87[5]. - Worldwide oil prices were 100% of average WTI prices and 94% of average Brent prices[5]. Taxation - Occidental expects an adjusted effective tax rate of 35% to 37% for continuing operations and 24% to 26% for discontinued operations in Q4 2025[3]. Discontinued Operations - Occidental completed the sale of Occidental Chemical Corporation (OxyChem) on January 2, 2026, with results reported as discontinued operations[2]. Forward-Looking Statements - Forward-looking statements include expectations about future earnings, revenue, and operational strategies[6]. - The company emphasizes that actual outcomes may differ from anticipated results due to various economic and operational factors[7]. - The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements unless legally required[6].

Core Viewpoint - Western Midstream Partners, LP has renegotiated natural-gas gathering and processing contracts in the Delaware Basin with Occidental Petroleum, transitioning to a fixed-fee structure that enhances drilling economics and supports development in the region [1][4]. Contract Amendments - The legacy cost-of-service structure has been replaced with a simplified fixed-fee structure, supported by acreage dedication, which is expected to align interests and position WES as a standalone midstream enterprise [1][4]. - Approximately 9% of WES's total revenue will remain under cost-of-service rates, with 1% expiring in the late 2020s, while the remaining provisions extend into the mid-to-late 2030s [4]. Financial Implications - The conversion to a fixed-fee structure is not expected to reduce Adjusted EBITDA through 2027, with minimal impact anticipated until 2032 [3]. - Occidental will transfer 15.3 million WES common units to WES, valued at approximately $610 million, resulting in a decrease of Occidental's ownership from 42% to 40% [4][10]. Revenue Diversification - WES has entered into a new agreement with ConocoPhillips for natural-gas volumes, which will reduce related-party revenue by over 10% and further diversify WES's revenue streams [4]. - The new contracts with Occidental and ConocoPhillips will be effective from January 1, 2026, and February 1, 2026, respectively [10]. Management Commentary - The President and CEO of WES emphasized that the transition to a fixed-fee structure is timely and logical, enhancing alignment with producers and diversifying the customer base [5]. - The changes are expected to provide greater clarity and confidence in WES's long-term earnings potential, supporting sustainable returns for stakeholders [5].

Group 1 - Jefferies has lowered the target price for Occidental Petroleum from $44 to $42 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is expected to release its Q4 earnings on February 19, with potential for a dividend per share increase, which could positively impact OXY stock price [1][3]. Dividend Increase Potential - Occidental has consistently raised its dividend per share (DPS) over the last four years, with a 9% annual increase from 88 cents to 96 cents last year [4]. - A conservative estimate suggests a 4.16% increase to $1.00 per share this year, which could elevate the stock value to $50.00, representing a 17% increase from the recent closing price of $42.70 [3][4]. Financial Capability - Analysts project Occidental to earn at least $2.27 per share this year, which would comfortably cover the anticipated dividend increase [5]. - The company's free cash flow (FCF) for the year, as of Q3, was reported at $2.375 billion, with cash dividends paid out amounting to $1.186 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of less than 50% [6][7]. Current Stock Performance - OXY stock currently has an annual dividend yield of 2.248%, with historical averages being lower at 1.12% over five years and 2.18% over the last 12 months [8].