Core Insights - Fairholme Capital Management reported an equity portfolio valued at approximately $1.2–1.3 billion, maintaining a highly concentrated, value-oriented strategy focused on a limited number of deeply researched positions [1][11] - The portfolio is primarily concentrated in real estate development, energy infrastructure, and financials, reflecting a high conviction in these sectors [1][11] Portfolio Overview - Total Portfolio Value: ~$1.24 billion [3] - Top 10 Holdings account for over 99% of the portfolio, indicating extreme concentration [3] - Low turnover with minor trimming activity observed [3] Top Holdings - St. Joe Company (JOE): ~$969 million, ~78.2% of the portfolio [3] - Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): ~$170 million, ~13.8% of the portfolio [3] - Bank OZK (OZK): ~$46.7 million, ~3.8% of the portfolio [3] - Berkshire Hathaway (Class B) (BRK.B): ~$24.4 million, ~2.0% of the portfolio [3] - Other holdings include W.R. Berkley, Occidental Petroleum, and Apple, with very small allocations [3] Recent Activity - Major trims included a reduction of ~626k shares in St. Joe Company (~-3% QoQ), indicating routine position management rather than a change in investment thesis [4] - Minor reductions were also noted in Bank OZK (~-0.1%) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (~-0.3%), appearing tactical rather than driven by conviction [5][6] - No significant new additions were disclosed, reinforcing a low-turnover, high-conviction investment posture [7] Portfolio Characteristics - Investment style is characterized as Deep Value with High-Conviction Concentration [9] - The holding period is very long-term, emphasizing intrinsic value realization over diversification [2][12] - Geographic exposure is primarily U.S.-focused, with an emphasis on asset-heavy, cash-generative businesses [15] Sector Themes - Core sector themes include real estate development, energy infrastructure, and financial services, with a notable focus on the dominant position in St. Joe Company [11][15] - The portfolio reflects a strategy aimed at income generation and cyclical recovery themes through its energy and financial holdings [11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 13F quarterly filing deadline for Berkshire Hathaway is generating significant interest, particularly following Warren Buffett's resignation as CEO, with market participants eager to understand the investment decisions made during his final quarter in charge [1]. Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings - Berkshire Hathaway's major holdings include Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum, which are believed to be primarily influenced by Buffett himself [2]. - As of the end of the third quarter, Berkshire's largest position is in Apple, valued at approximately $60.66 billion, representing 22.69% of the portfolio [2]. - The second-largest holding is American Express, valued at about $50.36 billion, making up 18.84% of the portfolio [2]. Group 2: Changes in Holdings - Significant reductions in holdings were observed for Apple and Bank of America, with Apple shares decreasing by nearly 42 million (approximately 15%) and Bank of America shares down by 37 million (over 6%) compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Apple's holdings have shrunk by about 75% from their peak, while Bank of America's holdings have nearly halved since the summer of 2024 [3]. - Berkshire's cash reserves have reached a new high, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [3]. Group 3: Leadership Transition and Investment Strategy - Greg Abel has officially taken over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, following Buffett's departure, with Todd Combs previously seen as a strong candidate for the role [1]. - There is speculation regarding whether Berkshire will divest some positions established under Combs, particularly in companies like Amazon, Verizon, First Capital Credit, Visa, and Mastercard [3]. - Historical precedents suggest that when investment managers leave Berkshire, the company often sells off the majority of their managed holdings [3].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 669.42 points (1.34%) to close at 49,451.98 points, the Nasdaq Composite falling 469.32 points (2.03%) to 22,597.15 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 108.71 points (1.57%) to 6,832.76 points [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Over 4,100 stocks declined, indicating widespread market panic as investors rushed to sell assets, particularly in the tech and growth sectors. The VIX index surged, reflecting heightened risk aversion [2][3] Sector Performance - The sell-off affected nearly all sectors, with notable declines in precious metals and semiconductor stocks. The precious metals sector saw significant drops, with gold futures down 3.08% and silver futures plummeting 10.62% [4][5][6][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.5%, with individual stocks like AEHR Test Systems down 17.58% and Intel down over 3% [8][10] Major Companies - Apple Inc. experienced a substantial drop of 5.00%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $120 billion, attributed partly to regulatory concerns [12] - Other major tech companies also faced declines, with Tesla down 1.62%, Amazon down 2.20%, and Meta Platforms down nearly 3% [12] Financial Sector - Bank stocks fell across the board, with JPMorgan Chase down over 2%, Goldman Sachs down over 4%, and Citigroup down over 5%, driven by concerns over AI disrupting traditional wealth management [13][14] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including a drop in initial jobless claims and lower-than-expected existing home sales, contributed to market anxiety about potential economic overheating and prolonged high interest rates [24][25][26] Global Market Impact - The sell-off in the US markets had a ripple effect on global markets, with European indices also closing lower after initially opening higher, indicating a widespread sentiment of fear [18][19][20] AI Concerns - The market's decline was exacerbated by fears regarding the disruptive impact of AI technologies on various industries, leading to significant stock price drops in sectors perceived to be at risk [21][22][30] Storage Chip Sector - In contrast to the overall market trend, storage chip stocks saw gains, with companies like SanDisk and Seagate Technology rising significantly, reflecting a belief that AI's growth will increase demand for data storage [29]

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is anticipated to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with significant year-over-year decreases expected [1][5]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $5.88 billion, reflecting a decline of 13.96% from the previous year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is 19 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 76.25%, with the bottom-line estimate decreasing by 44.12% over the past 60 days [2]. Earnings Surprise History - Occidental Petroleum has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, achieving an average surprise of 27.8% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for OXY, as it has an Earnings ESP of -5.88% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4][6]. Production and Financial Performance - OXY's production volumes are expected to remain strong due to robust performance across domestic assets, which may offset impacts from a scheduled turnaround at Al Hosn [8]. - The company has generated cash flow and utilized it to reduce debts, retiring $8.1 billion in debt, which lowered annual interest expenses by $440 million, potentially benefiting fourth-quarter earnings [9]. - Cost management initiatives are yielding positive results, likely improving margins and positively impacting earnings [10]. Production Expectations - For Q4 2025, OXY expects production of 1,440-1,480 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), with the Permian Resources segment output projected at 795-815 Mboe/d [11]. Stock Performance - OXY's shares have increased by 6.4% over the past three months, compared to the industry's growth of 15.5% [12]. - The stock is trading at a premium, with a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 5.48X, above the industry average of 4.89X [14]. Investment Thesis - The company benefits from a strong U.S. presence and a focus on the Permian Basin, with acquired assets expected to support production growth [16]. - The sale of the chemical business, OxyChem, to Berkshire Hathaway allows the company to concentrate on core operations and further reduce debts [16]. Summary of Performance Factors - Cash flow generation, debt reduction initiatives, and contributions from acquisitions are expected to enhance performance, particularly from the Midstream segment [19].

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically Occidental Petroleum, focusing on identifying undervalued companies in the sector [1] - The author emphasizes the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, highlighting the need for patience and experience in investing [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks out under-followed oil companies and midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the author has a beneficial long position in Occidental Petroleum shares, indicating a personal investment interest [3] - There is a disclosure that the author may initiate a position in another company, WES, without further notice, suggesting ongoing investment activity [4] - The article clarifies that it does not serve as a recommendation for stock purchases or sales, urging investors to review company documents for their own investment qualifications [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically Occidental Petroleum, focusing on identifying undervalued companies in the sector [1] - The author emphasizes the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, highlighting the need for patience and experience in investing [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks out under-followed oil companies and midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the author has a beneficial long position in Occidental Petroleum shares, indicating a personal investment interest [3] - There is a disclosure that the author may initiate a position in another company, WES, without further notice, suggesting ongoing investment activity [4] - The article clarifies that it is not intended as investment advice and encourages investors to review company documents for their own investment qualifications [4]

Selling put options before a company's earnings announcement can be a valid strategy for options traders seeking to capitalize on higher than normal volatility. One of the primary reasons traders may consider selling a Occidental Petroleum (OXY) put option before their earnings announcement on next week is the elevated implied volatility. Earnings reports can trigger significant price movements, and this volatility results in an increase in option premiums. By selling the put option before the announcemen ...

Core Insights - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is recognized as one of the top oil and gas stocks to buy currently, with price targets being adjusted by analysts [1][3]. Price Target Adjustments - Piper Sandler raised its price target for Occidental from $46 to $47 while maintaining a Neutral rating [1]. - BofA increased its price target from $44 to $45, also keeping a Neutral rating on the stock [3]. Market Conditions - Piper Sandler anticipates strong Q4 results for gas companies but highlights challenges due to weaker oil and natural gas liquids prices, particularly with WAHA pricing [2]. - BofA noted that geopolitical events, such as the removal of Maduro in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to rising crude prices, which could serve as catalysts for the stock [4]. Company Overview - Occidental Petroleum is a major American multinational energy company with significant assets in the United States, the Middle East, and North Africa, making it one of the largest oil and gas producers in the U.S. [4].

Core Insights - The meme stock phenomenon began in 2021 with GameStop, driven by retail traders on Reddit's WallStreetBets forum, leading to significant price surges due to short squeezes [1] - Investments in meme stocks from 2016 or at their IPOs have resulted in varied outcomes, with some stocks yielding massive gains while others have led to substantial losses [2] Investment Performance - A $1,000 investment in various meme stocks a decade ago would yield different values today, highlighting the volatility and potential of these stocks [3] - Notable performance includes: - GameStop (GME): $3,532 (+253%) - AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC): $11 (-98.9%) - Palantir Technologies (PLTR): $14,659 (+1,366%) - Carvana (CVNA): $29,712 (+2,871%) - Roku (ROKU): $6,033 (+503%) [4] Market Trends - Meme stocks continue to emerge, indicating a persistent trend driven by social media sentiment rather than traditional business fundamentals [5]

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum experienced a significant share price increase of 10.4% in January 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.4% rise, primarily driven by a rebound in crude oil prices and other strategic developments [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Crude oil prices saw a substantial increase in January, with Brent rising by 16% and WTI by 14%, marking the first monthly rise in oil prices in six months [2]. - The rise in oil prices was influenced by potential supply disruptions, including the U.S. military's capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact on Occidental Petroleum - Higher oil prices are expected to positively impact Occidental Petroleum's financial performance, allowing the company to generate more cash for debt repayment and shareholder returns [4]. - Occidental Petroleum completed the sale of its former chemicals business, OxyChem, to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion, with plans to use $6.5 billion of the proceeds to reduce debt, aiming to lower its principal debt balance below $15 billion [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Occidental amended its Delaware Basin natural gas gathering contract with Western Midstream Partners, transitioning to a fixed-fee structure and transferring 15.3 million common units valued at $610 million, reducing its ownership from 42% to 40% [6]. - This deal is expected to save Occidental money in the short term and provide more flexibility for developing its oil and gas assets, while also supporting Western Midstream's evolution into a stand-alone entity [6].