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Summary of Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Penske Automotive Group - **Ticker**: NYSE:PAG - **Shares Outstanding**: 66 million - **Current Share Price**: Approximately $160 - **Market Capitalization**: About $10.7 billion - **Net Debt**: $1.5 billion - **Ownership**: 28.9% of Penske Transportation Solutions - **Total Enterprise Value**: Approximately $10 billion - **Business Segments**: Retail automotive, commercial vehicle dealerships, and energy solutions [1][2] Core Business Insights - **Retail Automotive**: Operates 356 franchises, primarily in premium luxury segments across the U.S., U.K., Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia [2] - **Commercial Trucks**: Sells around 20,000 commercial trucks annually through 45 dealerships, exclusively Freightliner [2] - **Recent Expansion**: Entered the Australian market with three Porsche dealerships [2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Cash Flow from Tax Deductions**: Estimated additional cash flow of $120 million to $150 million annually from accelerated depreciation on truck purchases, based on $3 billion in annual purchases [3][4] - **Investment in Penske Transportation Solutions**: Total cash invested is $956 million, with $2 billion withdrawn, indicating strong cash flow management [4] - **Flat Performance**: Penske Truck Leasing has seen flat performance this year, with a reduction in the vehicle fleet from 445,000 to 405,000 [5] Market Conditions and Inventory - **Inventory Levels**: Current industry inventory is 2.6 million units, down 35% from pre-pandemic levels. Penske's inventory is well-managed with a 49-day supply in the U.S. [11] - **Luxury Vehicle Market**: Average transaction prices have increased, with new vehicles averaging $60,000 and used vehicles at $40,000, reflecting a shift in consumer financing behavior [13][16] Consumer Behavior and Financing - **Financing Trends**: Increasing number of customers financing vehicles for longer terms (beyond 6-8 years), raising concerns about negative equity situations [14] - **Leasing**: Leasing has decreased from 40% to 32%, but remains a more affordable option for consumers [14] Challenges in Used Vehicle Market - **Low Lease Returns**: The availability of quality used vehicles is a challenge, with a focus on zero to four-year-old cars [23][24] - **Sourcing Strategy**: 84% of vehicles sold are self-sourced, primarily through trade-ins [23] International Operations - **U.K. Market**: Contributes about $9 billion in revenue (35% of total business). Facing challenges due to government policies on EV sales and higher taxes impacting consumer behavior [28][30] - **Chinese Dealerships**: Recently added eight Chinese brands in the U.K. to explore market potential, with limited capital investment [36][37] Parts and Service Business - **Revenue Growth**: Parts and service revenue has increased by 35% compared to 2019, driven by warranty and customer pay services [38] - **Warranty Issues**: Recent recalls (e.g., Toyota and Lexus) are expected to boost service revenue, although they pose brand management challenges [39][41] Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: Anticipates improved performance in the truck leasing segment as market conditions stabilize. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on its diversified business model and strong cash flow management [43]

Revenue and Profit - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $23.0 billion, with $19.7 billion from retail automotive dealerships, $2.7 billion from retail commercial truck dealerships, and $619.3 million from commercial vehicle distribution and other operations[123]. - Gross profit for the same period was $3.8 billion, comprising $3.3 billion from retail automotive dealerships, $420.9 million from retail commercial truck dealerships, and $134.9 million from commercial vehicle distribution and other operations[123]. - Retail automotive dealerships accounted for 85.6% of total revenues and 85.4% of total gross profit during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[126]. - Retail commercial truck dealerships, specifically the Premier Truck Group, represented 11.7% of total revenues and 11.0% of total gross profit for the same period[127]. - Total revenue increased by $104.5 million, or 1.4%, and gross profit increased by $5.9 million, or 0.5%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[145]. - Foreign currency fluctuations contributed an increase of $92.8 million in revenue and $13.4 million in gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2025[146]. Sales Performance - The U.S. industry new light vehicle sales increased 4.3% to 12.3 million units during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with retail sales up 5.0%[137]. - New retail unit sales (excluding agency) decreased by 714 units, or 1.4%, to 48,809 units for the three months ended September 30, 2025[159]. - Same-store new retail unit sales (excluding agency) increased by 146 units, or 0.3%, to 47,115 units for the same period[159]. - Retail unit deliveries of new vehicles increased by 6.4% in the U.S. but decreased by 5.2% internationally, with same-store retail units delivered increasing by 8.9% in the U.S.[160]. - New retail unit sales (excluding agency) decreased by 2,094 units, or 1.4%, from 2024 to 2025, totaling 146,957 units[195]. - Same-store new retail unit sales (excluding agency) fell by 1,425 units, or 1.0%, totaling 141,674 units[195]. Vehicle Sales and Backlog - North American sales of Class 6-8 medium- and heavy-duty trucks decreased 11.4% year-over-year to 309,294 units during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[138]. - The Class 6-8 medium- and heavy-duty truck backlog was 136,527 units as of September 30, 2025, down from 190,602 units a year earlier, reflecting a decrease of 3.1% since the prior quarter[139]. - New commercial truck retail sales revenue decreased by $134.5 million, or 17.8%, from 2024 to 2025, primarily due to a decrease in same-store new retail unit sales[175]. Expenses and Financials - Total selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by $22.3 million, or 2.5%, from 2024 to 2025, with same-store SG&A expenses rising by $31.2 million, or 3.6%[188]. - Depreciation increased by $2.3 million, or 5.7%, from 2024 to 2025, due to capital expenditures and net dealership acquisitions[190]. - Floor plan interest expense decreased by $7.6 million, or 15.5%, from 2024 to 2025, due to lower applicable rates and reduced inventory levels[191]. - Income taxes increased by $1.3 million, or 1.7%, from 2024 to 2025, despite a decrease in pre-tax income, with an effective tax rate of 26.9%[194]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased to $851.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, from $962.1 million in 2024, a decline of $110.2 million[251][253]. - Cash dividends paid to stockholders increased to $252.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $194.7 million in 2024[260]. - The company announced a cash dividend of $1.38 per share, payable on December 2, 2025, reflecting a consistent dividend policy[238]. Market Conditions and Risks - The company has experienced higher rates of inflation affecting vehicle prices, parts costs, and employee wages, which may adversely impact consumer demand[272]. - The automotive retail and commercial vehicle industries are influenced by macro-economic conditions, including consumer confidence and discretionary spending levels[275]. - The company is subject to risks from tariffs and trade restrictions that may increase vehicle and parts costs, affecting gross profit[276]. - Changes in foreign currency exchange rates may materially and adversely impact the company's future results[283].

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the energy industry, having worked for 22 years in various roles including engineering, planning, and financial analysis [1] - The investment strategy focuses on achieving returns that match the S&P 500 while maintaining lower volatility and higher income [1] - The approach emphasizes long-term holding of investments unless there is a compelling reason to sell, with a focus on intrinsic value [1] Investment Strategy - The individual manages a personal portfolio since 1998, aiming for total return maximization by purchasing assets when prices are low relative to their intrinsic value [1] - There is no specific preference for asset class, market cap, sector, or yield, indicating a broad investment approach [1] Position Disclosure - The individual holds a beneficial long position in the shares of PAG, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue was $7.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year [5] - EBITDA for Q3 was $292 million, with net income of $213 million and earnings per share of $3.23 [5] - Retail automotive same-store revenue increased by 5%, with service and parts revenue also up by 5% [5] - Total new vehicle gross per unit was impacted by a higher percentage of BEV sales, reducing gross by approximately $100 [6][8] - Free cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $625 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. automotive retail same-store new and used unit sales increased by 5%, with new units up 9% and used units up 1% [10] - Premier Truck Group same-store unit sales declined by 19% during Q3, with EBITDA down $15 million [9][12] - International revenue was $2.9 billion, with a 7% decline in same-store units delivered in the UK [15] - Used vehicle gross profit in the UK increased by 19%, contributing to an overall increase in used vehicle gross per unit [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., same-store new units delivered increased by 9%, while revenue increased by nearly 10% [7] - The UK retail automotive market faced challenges due to a cyber incident at Jaguar Land Rover, impacting new vehicle deliveries [8][15] - The Class 8 market saw a 30% decline in orders and a 22% decline in retail sales during Q3 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its diversification strategy and has acquired a Ferrari dealership in Modena, Italy [23] - The focus on electric vehicle sales increased, with BEV sales making up over 10% of total sales in Q3 [6] - The company is adjusting its cost structure in response to macroeconomic challenges and is well-positioned for a market rebound [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the diversified model's ability to adapt to market conditions [25] - The operating environment in the UK remains challenging due to inflation and interest rates, impacting consumer affordability [15] - Management anticipates a gradual recovery in the freight environment, with potential improvements in freight rates and capacity [51] Other Important Information - The company repaid $550 million of senior subordinated notes, reducing non-vehicle debt to $1.57 billion [21] - Total inventory was $4.7 billion, with retail automotive inventory down $9 million [23] - The company has $262 million remaining under the existing securities repurchase authorization [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Chinese brands and Sytner Select locations - Management confirmed the transition to Sytner Select involved reducing big-box retail stores to eight high-quality locations, with partnerships with Chinese brands like Chery and Geely [32][34] Question: Impact of tax deductions on Q4 demand - Management indicated that the tax deduction for depreciation would have an impact on Q4 demand, with production schedules filled for Q4 [38][40] Question: Visibility on recovery for Premier Truck Group - Management noted that freight rates have bottomed out and discussed potential capacity tightening due to regulatory changes affecting CDL drivers [49][50] Question: Growth in U.S. parts and service business - Management highlighted strong performance in customer pay and warranty services, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and operational efficiencies [54][56] Question: Trends in luxury vehicle sales and GPU - Management discussed the performance of luxury brands, particularly Jaguar Land Rover, and the impact of supply constraints on gross profit per unit [66][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue was $7.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year [4] - EBITDA for the quarter was $292 million, with net income of $213 million and earnings per share of $3.23 [4] - Retail automotive same-store revenue increased by 5%, with service and parts revenue also up by 5% [4] - The average discount from MSRP on BEVs sold in the U.S. was $7,100, impacting new vehicle gross per unit by approximately $100 [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. retail automotive same-store new units delivered increased by 9%, with revenue up by $300 million, nearly 10% [5] - Premier Truck Group same-store unit sales declined by 19%, with EBITDA down by $15 million [7][12] - In the UK, same-store units delivered declined by 7%, with a significant impact from a cyber incident at Jaguar Land Rover [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. retail automotive business showed strong performance, while the UK faced challenges due to inflation and a cyber incident [5][14] - International revenue was $2.9 billion, with a 23% increase in revenue from operations in Italy, Germany, and Japan [16] - The Class 8 market saw a 30% decline in orders and a 22% decline in retail sales during Q3 [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its diversification strategy and has acquired a Ferrari dealership in Modena, Italy [23] - The focus is on enhancing relationships with brands and driving efficiencies in operations [18][19] - The company is adjusting its cost structure in response to market conditions and preparing for a rebound in the freight environment [12][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the diversified model's ability to adapt to market conditions [25] - The freight environment is expected to improve as capacity tightens due to regulatory changes affecting CDL drivers [42] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the used vehicle market as lease returns increase [71] Other Important Information - The company generated $852 million in cash flow from operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 [19] - Total debt was $5.6 billion, with a significant portion related to floor plans [20] - The company has returned over $2.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the last four years [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Chinese brands and Sytner Select - Management confirmed the transition to Sytner Select involved reducing inventory while improving quality, with partnerships established with Chinese brands like Chery and Geely [29][30] Question: Impact of tax deductions on demand - Management indicated that the tax deduction for depreciation would have a positive cash flow impact, with expectations for continued demand in Q4 [33][36] Question: Visibility on recovery in Premier Truck Group - Management noted that freight rates have likely bottomed out, with expectations for capacity tightening and improved freight rates in the future [42] Question: Trends in luxury vehicle sales - Management highlighted strong performance in premium luxury sales, with expectations for continued demand despite challenges from specific brands [55][56] Question: Used vehicle gross profit increase - Management attributed the increase in used vehicle gross profit primarily to the Sytner Select strategy and improved inventory management [70][71]

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 1% to $7.7 billion for Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year[15] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue increased by 1% to $23 billion[28] - Q3 2025 net income attributable to common stockholders was $213 million, a decrease of 6% compared to $226 million in Q3 2024[28] - Income per share for Q3 2025 was $323, a decrease of 5% compared to $339 in Q3 2024[28] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to common stockholders was $707 million, a 4% increase compared to $683 million in the same period of 2024[28] - Income per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1066, a 5% increase compared to $1020 in the same period of 2024[28] Retail Automotive - Retail automotive same-store revenue increased by 51%, with related gross profit up by 30%[15] - Same-store new units delivered increased by 39%[15] - Same-store service & parts revenue increased by 49%, with related gross profit up by 75%[15] Capital Allocation - Repaid $550 million of 35% senior subordinated notes due September 1, 2025, at scheduled maturity[15] - Through October 24, 2025, repurchased 1086560 shares of common stock for $167 million[15] - On October 15, 2025, the company announced a 45% increase in the quarterly dividend, representing $006 per share, to $138[15]

Revenue Performance - Retail automotive same-store revenue increased by 5% in Q3 2025, reaching a total of $7.7 billion compared to $7.6 billion in Q3 2024[2]. - Total retail automotive revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased by 1% to $23.0 billion, while net income attributable to common stockholders rose by 4% to $707.3 million[5]. - Revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $7,695.3 million, a 1.4% increase from $7,590.8 million in 2024[20]. - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $6,570.1 million, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the prior year[29]. - Total Revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $6,394.4 million, a 5.1% increase from $6,083.9 million in the same period last year[31]. - New retail vehicle revenue increased by 2.5% to $2,961.1 million, while used vehicle revenue rose by 5.6% to $2,242.8 million for the same period[29]. - New Vehicles revenue increased by 3.5% to $2,863.0 million, while Used Vehicles revenue increased by 7.5% to $2,196.5 million[31]. - Total revenue for retail commercial trucks fell by 13.6% to $918.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,063.3 million in the same period last year[33]. Profitability Metrics - Net income attributable to common stockholders decreased by 6% to $213.0 million, with earnings per share down 5% to $3.23[2]. - Operating income decreased by 5.9% to $298.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from $317.4 million in 2024[20]. - Net income attributable to common stockholders for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $213.0 million, a decrease of 5.8% from $226.1 million in 2024[20]. - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $3,814.7 million, reflecting a 1.7% increase compared to $3,752.5 million in 2024[20]. - Retail automotive gross profit increased by 2.4% to $1,066.3 million, with service and parts gross profit rising by 7.2% to $482.2 million[29]. - Total gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,042.9 million, reflecting a 3.0% increase from $1,012.1 million in the prior year[31]. - Gross profit from new vehicles declined by 24.6% to $34.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025[33]. - Total gross profit for retail commercial trucks was $136.3 million, down 13.2% from $157.1 million in the same period last year[33]. Shareholder Returns - The quarterly dividend was increased by 4.5% to $1.38 per share, representing a forward dividend yield of 3.2%[12]. - The company repurchased 1,086,560 shares, representing 1.6% of outstanding shares, and had a leverage ratio of 1.0x as of September 30, 2025[2][12]. - The company repurchased 48,850 shares at an aggregate purchase price of $8.3 million in Q3 2025[38]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $17,118.8 million, up from $16,720.9 million at the end of 2024[22]. - Total liabilities decreased to $11,393.5 million as of September 30, 2025, from $11,493.6 million at the end of 2024[22]. - Total long-term debt decreased to $1,571.0 million as of September 30, 2025, from $1,852.0 million at the end of 2024[39]. - The debt to total capitalization ratio improved to 21.5% in Q3 2025 from 26.2% at the end of 2024[39]. Operational Efficiency - Retail automotive same-store gross profit increased by 3%, driven by an 8% increase in same-store service and parts[8]. - EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $357.1 million, down from $367.9 million in 2024[26]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $2,727.4 million, a 2.8% increase from $2,652.5 million in 2024[42]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses to gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was 71.5%, an increase of 80 basis points from 70.7% in 2024[42]. Market Trends - Retail commercial truck unit sales decreased by 19% in Q3 2025, with earnings before taxes dropping to $41.5 million from $56.5 million in the prior year[9]. - New retail commercial truck units sold decreased by 20.5% year-over-year to 4,298 units for the three months ended September 30, 2025[33]. - Used retail automotive units saw a significant decline of 5.2% year-over-year, totaling 54,708 for the three months ended September 30, 2025[29]. - Retail Automotive Same-Store Units for New Retail increased by 0.3% to 47,115 units compared to 46,969 units in the previous year[31].

Financial Performance - For the quarter ended September 2025, Penske Automotive reported revenue of $7.7 billion, an increase of 1.4% year-over-year [1] - EPS for the quarter was $3.23, down from $3.36 in the same quarter last year, indicating a decline [1] - The reported revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.74 billion, resulting in a surprise of -0.58% [1] - The company experienced an EPS surprise of -7.18%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $3.48 [1] Key Metrics - Retail Automotive Gross Profit Per Vehicle Retailed for new vehicles was $4,726, lower than the estimated $4,983.74 [4] - Retail Commercial Truck Revenue Per Vehicle Retailed for new vehicles was $144,435, slightly above the average estimate of $143,116.50 [4] - Retail Commercial Truck Units totaled 5,108, below the average estimate of 6,187 [4] - Retail Automotive Units for used vehicles were 54,708, exceeding the average estimate of 53,055 [4] - Revenue from Retail Automotive for new vehicles was $2.96 billion, below the average estimate of $3 billion, but showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [4] - Revenue from Retail Automotive for fleet and wholesale was $352 million, slightly below the average estimate of $354.9 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 1% [4] - Revenue from Retail Automotive for service and parts was $818.3 million, compared to the average estimate of $834.2 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.2% [4] - Revenue from Retail Automotive for finance and insurance was $195.9 million, below the average estimate of $202.53 million, with a year-over-year increase of 1.5% [4] - Revenue from Retail Automotive for used vehicles was $2.24 billion, exceeding the estimated $2.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [4] - Total revenue from Retail Automotive was $6.57 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $6.5 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [4] - Revenue from Retail Commercial Truck was $918.6 million, significantly below the average estimate of $1.04 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 13.6% [4] - Revenue from Commercial Vehicle Distribution and Other was $206.6 million, above the average estimate of $200.51 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 10.6% [4] Stock Performance - Penske's shares have returned -6.3% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Penske Automotive reported quarterly earnings of $3.23 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 per share, representing a -7.18% earnings surprise [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $7.7 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.58%, compared to $7.59 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - Over the last four quarters, Penske has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped revenue estimates two times [2]. Stock Performance - Penske shares have increased by approximately 7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 17.2% [3]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6]. Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.45 on revenues of $7.63 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $14.10 on revenues of $30.67 billion [7]. - The trend of estimate revisions for Penske was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, which may impact future stock performance [6]. Industry Context - The Automotive - Retail and Whole Sales industry is currently ranked in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stocks within this sector [8].