Core Insights - Middle Coast Investing's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates a favorable performance, with its portfolio outperforming the S&P 500, returning 9.6% compared to the S&P 500's 7.8% [1] - The Core U.S. portfolios returned 10%, while the Russell 2000 returned 12%, the S&P 600 returned 8.7%, and the Nasdaq generated 11.2% during the same period [1] - European Portfolios appreciated by 5.5% in Q3 2025 [1] Company Focus: Portillo's Inc. (NASDAQ:PTLO) - Portillo's Inc. had a one-month return of -0.77% and a 52-week loss of 47.86%, closing at $6.47 per share with a market capitalization of $465.229 million on October 6, 2025 [2] - Middle Coast Investing acknowledged a misjudgment regarding Portillo's, noting a disappointing Q2 report and lowered guidance, but expressed confidence in the company's strategy and potential to resolve its issues, particularly in Texas [3] - Portillo's Inc. was held by 26 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 17 in the previous quarter [4] - The company reported revenue of $188.5 million in Q2 2025, reflecting an increase of $6.6 million compared to Q2 2024 [4] - Despite recognizing Portillo's potential, Middle Coast Investing believes certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Portillo's, Inc. is scheduled to host its Q3 2025 earnings webcast on November 4, 2025, at 10 a.m. EST, with the earnings release occurring before market open on the same day [1]. Company Overview - Portillo's has expanded from a small hot dog trailer in Chicago to over 90 restaurants across 10 states, offering a unique menu that includes Italian beef sandwiches, Chicago-style hot dogs, char-grilled burgers, fresh salads, and chocolate cake [2]. - The company operates a model that focuses on creating experience-oriented destinations, combining dine-in, drive-thru, takeout, and delivery services to meet customer demands [2]. - Portillo's aims to extend its iconic food and dining experience to a broader audience across the United States after six decades of successful operations [2].

Core Insights - The article compiles significant research calls from Wall Street, highlighting upgrades and downgrades that could impact investor decisions. Upgrades - Deutsche Bank upgraded Mobileye (MBLY) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $19, indicating a favorable setup for the shares [2] - BofA upgraded Brinker (EAT) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $192, up from $190, noting that full-service restaurants are better positioned due to higher incomes among older consumers [3] - Jefferies upgraded Ford (F) to Hold from Underperform with a price target of $12, up from $9, citing the potential for improved earnings as constraints on higher CO2 mix models loosen [4] - Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Affirm (AFRM) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $101, up from $74, highlighting its established product set and international growth potential [5] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Micron (MU) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $220, up from $160, predicting multiple quarters of double-digit price increases that could enhance earnings power [6] Downgrades - Susquehanna downgraded Rambus (RMBS) to Neutral from Positive with a price target of $100, indicating that the best-case EPS outlook is already priced in [7] - BofA downgraded Shake Shack (SHAK) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $86, down from $148, due to margin pressures from competition and inflation [7] - Citi downgraded Boston Beer (SAM) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $235, down from $255, anticipating continued challenges in the second half of 2025 [7] - Scotiabank downgraded AT&T (T) to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $30.25, expecting modest revenue and EBITDA growth amid business segment weakness [7] - Scotiabank downgraded Check Point (CHPT) to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $205, down from $220, expressing less optimism about the company despite a positive outlook for the U.S. software sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - Portillo's has appointed Michael Miles Jr as interim CEO following the departure of Michael Osanloo, who served as president and CEO for seven years and will assist in the transition for 90 days [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Michael Miles Jr, previously the chairman of Portillo's board, has taken over as interim CEO [1][5]. - Osanloo expressed gratitude for his time leading the company and acknowledged the contributions of the team [1]. - A search committee has been formed to find a permanent CEO, consisting of directors Paulette Dodson, GJ Hart, Eugene I Lee Jr, and Michael Miles Jr [2]. Group 2: Executive Background - Michael Miles Jr has extensive experience in the retail and restaurant sectors, having previously served as president and COO of Staples and COO of Pizza Hut [3]. - Eugene Lee Jr has been appointed as the lead independent director, bringing experience from his tenure as CEO of Darden Restaurants [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Portillo's operates 90 outlets across ten US states, known for its Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, Chicago-style hot dogs, salads, and chocolate cake [5].

Company Leadership Transition - Portillo's Inc. has appointed Michael A. Miles, Jr. as Interim CEO, effective immediately, succeeding Michael Osanloo who has departed the company [2][5] - A Search Committee has been established to identify the next CEO, comprising Directors Paulette Dodson, G.J. Hart, Eugene I. Lee, Jr., and Michael A. Miles, Jr., with assistance from an executive search firm [3] - Eugene I. Lee, Jr. has been appointed as Lead Independent Director during this transition period [5] Leadership Experience - Michael A. Miles, Jr. brings extensive leadership experience from the retail and restaurant industries, having previously served as President and COO of Staples and COO of Pizza Hut [4] - Miles has been Chairman of the Board at Portillo's since 2014 and served as Interim CEO from 2014 to 2015 [4] Company Overview - Portillo's has grown from a small hot dog trailer in Chicago to over 90 restaurants across 10 states, known for its menu of Italian beef sandwiches, Chicago-style hot dogs, and other offerings [6] - The company operates a model that focuses on experience, blending dine-in, drive-thru, takeout, and delivery to serve its guests [6]

Core Viewpoint - Portillo's has faced challenges this year due to weak consumer spending and poorly executed restaurant launches, leading to a decline in stock performance. However, management's decision to scale back on growth plans may be a prudent long-term strategy [1]. Group 1 - Portillo's stock has experienced a rough year, attributed to weak consumer spending [1]. - The company has encountered issues with some of its restaurant launches, which were not executed well [1]. - Management is reducing growth plans, a move that the market has reacted negatively to, but it may be beneficial in the long run [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's background as an equity analyst and founder of a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [1] - The research firm employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to uncover hidden value in public equities, particularly in micro and small-cap stocks often overlooked by mainstream analysts [1] - The author has experience in finance and business management, holding an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, and has specialized training in valuation and financial modeling [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's research contributions featured on platforms such as Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, and Investing.com, indicating a broad reach within the investment community [1] - The focus on thematic research and valuation efforts suggests a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities within the consumer discretionary and food & beverage sectors [1] - The author's brief experience as a franchise partner for a regional ice cream shop adds practical insights into restaurant operations, enhancing the analytical perspective [1]

Group 1 - The consumer discretionary sector has identified oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] - An asset is considered oversold when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30, indicating potential short-term performance improvement [1] Group 2 - Portillo's Inc (PTLO) has an RSI of 23.5, with shares closing at $6.13 after a 20% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $6.00 [7] - America's CAR-MART Inc (CRMT) has an RSI of 27.5, with shares closing at $34.55 after a 23% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $33.50 [7] - Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) has an RSI of 23.1, with shares closing at $56.53 after a 10% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $36.78 [7]

Group 1 - The consumer discretionary sector has identified oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] - An asset is considered oversold when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30, which helps traders gauge short-term performance [1] Group 2 - Portillo's Inc (PTLO) has an RSI of 23.5, with shares closing at $6.13 after a 20% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $6.00 [7] - America's CAR-MART Inc (CRMT) has an RSI of 27.5, with shares closing at $34.55 after a 23% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $33.50 [7] - Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) has an RSI of 23.1, with shares closing at $56.53 after a 10% decline over the past month and a 52-week low of $36.78 [7]

Summary of Portillo's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Portillo's - **Industry**: Restaurant and Food Distribution Key Points and Arguments Same-Store Sales and Traffic - Portillo's has revised its same-store sales outlook due to a challenging restaurant environment, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and a slowdown in traffic [3][4][5] - The management emphasizes the importance of operational excellence and a strong value proposition to drive traffic [4][5] Financial Guidance and Unit Openings - The company lowered its guidance for the full year, reflecting a decline in top-line performance [6][7] - The number of new restaurant openings has been reduced from 12 to 8 for the year, with 6 additional locations under construction [7][21] - For 2026, Portillo's plans to open 8 new restaurants, with a focus on improving unit economics [7][22] Strategic Board Additions - New board members, including Jack Hartung and Gene Lee, are contributing to the company's strategic reset and operational improvements [9] Value Proposition in Chicagoland - Portillo's believes its value proposition in Chicagoland is strong, particularly in quality and quantity, but acknowledges the need to reassess pricing strategies [11][12] Simplifying Operations - The company is discontinuing breakfast offerings to focus on core lunch and dinner traffic, alongside eliminating 18 to 20 other internal projects that do not drive transactions [19][18] Development Strategy - Portillo's is shifting its development strategy to ensure better unit economics, with a focus on reducing build costs for new restaurants [21][22][30] - The company is exploring financing options to lower capital burdens and improve cash-on-cash returns [30][31] Marketing and Brand Awareness - A new Chief Marketing Officer, Denise, has been hired to enhance brand communication and awareness, particularly in Texas [35][39] - Portillo's is actively engaging in grassroots marketing efforts in Texas, including food sampling and community involvement [39][40] Kiosk Deployment - The kiosk initiative has been successful, with ongoing improvements to enhance customer interaction [46] Supply Chain Management - Portillo's is managing commodity inflation effectively, particularly in beef, and is about 90% locked on beef lots for 2025 [47][49] Closing Remarks - The management reiterates a strong focus on driving traffic and achieving best-in-class unit-level economics, while also emphasizing the importance of eliminating non-essential projects [51] Additional Important Content - The company is optimistic about its cash flow generation and views the current phase as a reset rather than a decline [51] - Portillo's is exploring new restaurant formats, including inline locations, to adapt to changing market dynamics [24][25]