Shares of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) have gained 3.3% since it reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 29, 2024, driven by an improving performance in its Mortgage Loans Receivable business and solid Asset Management unit.Higher interest income was a key contributor to third-quarter growth, though rising expenses and declining servicing revenues partially offset these gains. Still, Rithm’s expanding Newrez business and strategic initiatives are expected to boost the market share of ...

For the quarter ended September 2024, Rithm (RITM) reported revenue of $619.51 million, down 43.1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.54, compared to $0.58 in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 billion, representing a surprise of -44.39%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +25.58%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.43. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Str ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2024, GAAP net income was $97 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, while earnings available for distribution were $270 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, reflecting a return on equity of 18% [17] - Book value increased by 8% since 2021, closing the quarter at $6.4 billion, or $12.31 per common share, with current estimates around $12.5 [16][17] - The company has $2 billion in cash and liquidity on its balance sheet as of the end of the quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Newrez maintained its position as the second largest non-bank servicer with over $755 billion in notional UPB serviced and was the fifth largest lender with a 3.4% market share [33] - Genesis Capital reported a record quarter, with production numbers expected to close the year between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, up from $2 billion [23] - Sculptor, acquired less than a year ago, is seeing strong performance across its verticals, with significant fundraising efforts underway [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company manages $80 billion in assets and has a servicing portfolio of approximately $875 billion [13] - The origination business reported $41 billion in origination through Q3, higher than all of 2023 [23] - The company noted low delinquency rates and high sponsor growth within its portfolio [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow assets under management (AUM) while prioritizing performance across all business lines [14] - There is a focus on expanding direct lending capabilities and exploring new market opportunities, particularly in private capital [15][21] - The company is strategically repositioning Great Ajax to focus on opportunistic investments in commercial real estate [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of consumer credit, noting no significant deterioration despite mixed signals in the market [30][56] - The company is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including inflation and potential impacts from the upcoming election, while maintaining a cautious approach to capital deployment [27][72] - Management believes that current capital deployment in real estate will yield significant rewards in the future [26] Other Important Information - The company raised $300 million in equity to support growth and M&A activities, having deployed $5.8 billion since 2021 without raising equity prior [8][20] - The company is focused on maintaining operational efficiency and flexibility in its origination and servicing operations [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on potentially listing part of Newrez - Management indicated that a potential public listing of Newrez could occur in 2025, depending on market conditions and equity pricing [46] Question: Update on book value in October - Book value is approximately $12.5 [47] Question: Residential volume refinance activity - Refinance volume was close to 30% of overall production, with expectations to normalize [48] Question: Performance fees in Q4 for Sculptor - Management expects to see performance fees in Q4, with potential lumpiness in earnings as AUM grows [49][50] Question: Flexibility to repurpose capital from Newrez - Management confirmed the ability to redeploy capital across segments as needed [52] Question: Perspectives on consumer credit - The servicing portfolio remains in good shape, with manageable delinquency rates [56] Question: Recent net flow picture for Sculptor - AUM has increased to approximately $34 billion, with strong performance across various strategies [60] Question: Direct lending expansion - The company is exploring partnerships and opportunities in direct lending, particularly in the credit space [65] Question: Expectations for sustainable operating ROEs - Management aims for mid-teens returns, consistent with historical performance [68] Question: Election implications for Rithm - Management anticipates potential volatility but believes a divided government may mitigate extreme policy changes [70][72] Question: Dividend payout considerations - Management is cautious about raising dividends, focusing on long-term capital deployment for growth [78] Question: Operational flexibility in origination - The company has significant operational headroom to manage varying origination volumes [81] Question: Growth opportunities in the wholesale channel - Management sees potential for growth in the wholesale channel through technology upgrades and disciplined capital deployment [84]

Financial Performance - Rithm reported GAAP Net Income of $97 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, representing a 6% Return on Equity[5] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) was $270.3 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, an 18% Return on Equity[5] - The company maintains a strong cash position with $2 billion in cash and liquidity[5] - Book value per share stands at $12.31[5], a slight decrease of 0.6% QoQ[85] Business Segments - Newrez's servicing portfolio has a Q3'24 Rithm Portfolio Servicing UPB of $755 billion[20] - Genesis Capital's Q3'24 originations reached $761 million, marking a near-record quarter[67] and YTD origination volume of $2.432 billion[67] - Sculptor manages $34 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM)[3, 27] Strategic Initiatives - Rithm has deployed approximately $5.8 billion in capital since 2021 to drive growth and diversify earnings[10] - The company's total servicing portfolio reached $878 billion[3, 37] - Newrez achieved a 23% ROE YTD, driven by strategic acquisitions and platform execution[47]

Exhibit 99.1 https://files.reporti Rithm Capital Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2024 Results NEW YORK - (BUSINESS WIRE) — Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM; "Rithm Capital," "Rithm" or the "Company") today reported the following information for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024: Third Quarter 2024 Financial Highlights: (1) • GAAP net income of $97.0 million, or $0.20 per diluted common share • Earnings available for distribution of $270.3 million, or $0.54 per diluted common share • Common dividend of ...

Group 1 - Analysts project Rithm (RITM) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.43 per share, a decline of 25.9% year over year, with revenues expected to reach $1.11 billion, an increase of 2.3% from the same quarter last year [1] - There has been a downward revision of 2.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting potential investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3] Group 2 - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Interest income' at $487.76 million, reflecting a change of +2.3% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'Revenues- Servicing revenue, net' is projected to be $314.63 million, indicating a decline of -32.1% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'Revenues- Gain on sale of originated mortgage loans, net' is expected to reach $168.06 million, suggesting a change of +12.6% year over year [6] Group 3 - Over the past month, Rithm shares have recorded returns of -7.4%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +2% [6] - Based on its Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), RITM is likely to underperform the overall market in the upcoming period [6]

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital offers a high dividend yield of 9.5%, which is unusual for stocks, indicating potential investor concerns about the underlying business [1][2]. Group 1: Business Model and Operations - Rithm Capital is often classified as a mortgage REIT but operates differently from traditional mortgage REITs like AGNC Investment, focusing on a diversified business model [4]. - The company generates investment income from its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio, which is a smaller part of its overall operations, alongside a single-family rental business owning 4,266 units [5]. - In the first half of 2024, Rithm originated loans totaling $1.7 billion, contributing to its diverse revenue streams [6]. Group 2: Mortgage Servicing Rights - Rithm Capital holds full rights to service mortgages with an outstanding balance of $587 billion as of June [7]. - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio accounts for approximately 35% of total revenue, but a potential refinancing wave could turn this segment into a liability [9]. Group 3: Diversification and Acquisitions - To mitigate reliance on the mortgage industry, Rithm acquired Sculptor in late 2023, which had $34 billion in assets under management, further diversifying its portfolio [10]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Rithm Capital's book value was $6.1 billion at the end of June, while its market cap was approximately $10.48 per share [11]. - The company earned $0.44 per share in the second quarter and $1.19 per share over the past 12 months, significantly exceeding its quarterly dividend obligation of $0.25 per share [12].

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is expected to report third-quarter 2024 results on October 29, 2024, with earnings estimated at 43 cents per share and revenues of $1.11 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings decline of 25.9% but a revenue growth of 2.3% [1] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rithm Capital's revenues for the current year is $4.79 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 32.2, while the EPS estimate is $1.81, indicating a decline of approximately 12.1% year-over-year [1] - Rithm Capital has consistently beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 36.3% [1] Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Rithm Capital, as it has an Earnings ESP of -1.18% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [2] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth is expected to be supported by higher fees, interest income, and multiple acquisitions, with a favorable interest rate environment contributing to enhanced returns from specific investments and consumer loans [3] - The net gain on originated residential mortgage loans is projected to increase by 12.6% year-over-year, aided by the profitability of the Newrez business [4] Revenue Challenges - Despite expected revenue growth, net servicing revenues are projected to decline by 32.1% year-over-year, and asset management revenues are estimated at $85.1 million, down from $109.4 million sequentially [4] - High interest rates are likely to increase interest expenses and warehouse line fees, along with higher general and administrative expenses, which may impact profits and create uncertainty regarding an earnings beat [4] Stock Performance - Rithm Capital's stock has decreased by 1.2% year-to-date, underperforming the industry growth of 9%, while peers like Annaly Capital Management and AGNC Investment Corp. have seen slight gains [5] - The stock has significantly lagged behind the S&P 500, which has rallied by 21.5% during the same period [5]

Company Overview - Rithm (RITM) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 25.9%, with an estimated EPS of $0.43 for the quarter ended September 2024 [2] - Revenue is projected to be $1.11 billion, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous year [2] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.84% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding Rithm's earnings prospects [3][6] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Rithm is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.18% [6] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Rithm exceeded expectations by posting earnings of $0.47 per share against an expected $0.42, achieving a surprise of +11.90% [7] - Rithm has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [7] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Rithm currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [6] - The combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a low Zacks Rank suggests that Rithm may not be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat [8] Industry Comparison - In contrast, Virtu Financial (VIRT) is expected to report earnings of $0.77 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 71.1%, with revenues projected at $369.38 million, up 24% [9] - Virtu Financial has a positive Earnings ESP of 0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a higher likelihood of beating consensus EPS estimates [9]

Core Insights - Rithm (RITM) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 14.49% [1][3] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Rithm achieved earnings of $0.47 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share, resulting in a surprise of 11.90% [2] - In the previous quarter, Rithm was expected to post earnings of $0.41 per share but delivered $0.48 per share, leading to a surprise of 17.07% [2] Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Rithm, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [3][6] - Rithm currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.33%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [6] Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [4] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5]