Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics compared to peers, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Part 1 Summary - RITM's book value as of September 30, 2025, is compared to 17 mREIT peers, aiding in understanding the company's financial standing [2] - The analysis aims to provide insights into RITM's performance relative to its peers, particularly in terms of dividend sustainability [4] Part 2 Summary - Part 2 focuses on RITM's dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics compared to 17 mREIT peers [3] - RITM's dividend history shows an increase from $0.35 per share in Q3 2014 to $0.50 by Q4 2019, followed by a cautious reduction to $0.05 during Q1 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [13][15] - RITM's dividend was increased to $0.10, $0.15, and $0.20 in 2020, and it has remained at $0.25 since Q3 2021, contrasting with many peers that reduced dividends [15] Dividend Analysis - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per share for Q4 2025, with a TTM dividend yield of 8.95% and an annual forward yield of 7.55% based on projected current book value [27][28] - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout ratio, with figures indicating a very attractive ratio throughout 2023 and 2024 [21][22] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) for Q1 to Q4 2023 were notably above the dividend rate, indicating strong earnings power [21] Future Projections - RITM is projected to have a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026 [29] - The company is expected to see an improvement in adjusted core earnings/EAD in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, despite a slight decrease anticipated in Q1 2026 [30] Investment Recommendation - The current recommendation for RITM is a "STRONG BUY" based on its undervalued stock price relative to projected current book value [33][34] - The price target for RITM is approximately $14.60 per share, with specific ranges for buy, hold, and sell recommendations based on stock price movements [34][35]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of combining investment consulting with active intraday trading to maximize returns through a deep understanding of economics and investment analysis [1] - The goal is to identify profitable and undervalued investment opportunities primarily in the U.S. market to create a high-yield, balanced portfolio [1] - The author highlights the significance of practical experience in management and trading, beyond academic qualifications in Finance and Economics [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific company or industry analysis, focusing instead on the author's investment philosophy and approach [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to 10 classes of mortgage-backed notes from New Residential Mortgage Loan Trust 2025-NQM7, a $493.7 million non-prime RMBS transaction sponsored by Rithm Capital Corp [1]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - NRMLT 2025-NQM7 is backed by a pool of 915 residential mortgages, with borrowers having a weighted average (WA) original credit score of 757 and a WA original loan-to-value (LTV) of 72.2% [2]. - The loans in this pool are primarily fixed-rate mortgages (99.3%) and have been seasoned for approximately four months, with about 10.6% of the pool featuring an initial interest-only period [2]. Group 2: Rating Methodology - KBRA's rating approach involved a loan-level analysis using its Residential Asset Loss Model (REALM), third-party loan file due diligence, cash flow modeling of the transaction's payment structure, and reviews of key transaction parties [3].

Core Insights - The article focuses on analyzing Rithm Capital Corp.'s (RITM) recent performance metrics in comparison to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers, highlighting investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage, and economic returns [1][3][54] Investment Composition and Portfolio Overview - As of September 30, 2025, RITM's investment portfolio consisted of 21% fixed-rate agency MBS, 0% variable-rate agency MBS, 32% mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and 47% non-agency MBS and other mortgage-related investments [19][28] - RITM's diverse investment strategy includes subsidiaries like Newrez, SCU, Crestline, and RPT, which contribute to a broad range of financial investments [28][39] Leverage and Hedging Coverage - RITM's on-balance sheet leverage ratio was 2.4x, with an at-risk leverage ratio of 1.0x as of September 30, 2025, indicating a slight decrease in on-balance sheet leverage and a slight increase in at-risk leverage compared to the previous quarter [20][21] - The hedging coverage ratio for RITM decreased to 58% as of September 30, 2025, reflecting the company's strategy to prepare for lower mortgage interest rates [51] Economic Returns and Valuation - RITM reported a book value (BV) of $12.83 per share at the end of Q3 2025, representing a quarterly increase of 0.94% and an economic return of 2.91% for the same period [22][23] - The trailing 24-month economic return for RITM was 20.37%, ranking it as the 4th best performer among the analyzed mREIT peers, significantly outperforming the average returns of other mREIT categories [55] Comparative Analysis with Peers - RITM's economic return and leverage metrics indicate it operates with lower average leverage compared to its closest peer, PMT, and the broader mREIT sector, which helps mitigate book value volatility [56] - The stock price of RITM was trading at a 13.44% discount to the estimated current BV as of December 5, 2025, suggesting potential undervaluation [52][53]

Core Insights - Rithm Capital (RITM) has announced two new acquisitions in the third quarter, indicating a strategy of continual expansion and diversification that is expected to last until 2026 [1] Company Developments - The company is focused on building out its third-party services, which suggests a strategic shift towards enhancing its operational capabilities and market presence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rithm (RITM) shares have increased by 3.1% in the past four weeks, closing at $11.33, with a potential upside of 25.4% based on Wall Street analysts' mean price target of $14.21 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of seven estimates ranging from a low of $12.50 to a high of $16.00, with a standard deviation of $1.19, indicating a potential increase of 10.3% to 41.2% from the current price [2] - A low standard deviation suggests a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [9] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about RITM's earnings prospects, as indicated by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which historically correlates with stock price movements [4][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 0.2% over the past month, with one estimate increasing and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank - RITM holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates, suggesting a strong potential upside [13] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are a common metric, they should be approached with skepticism as they can mislead investors; analysts may set overly optimistic targets due to business incentives [3][8][10]

Core Insights - Rithm Capital Corp. has successfully completed the acquisition of Crestline Management, L.P., which is a significant move in its strategy to enhance its asset management platform [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Crestline is aimed at building an integrated and diversified asset management platform [1] - This strategic move is intended to deliver differentiated investment offerings to both institutional and private wealth investors [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The combination of Rithm, Crestline, and Sculptor will result in over 200 investment strategies being offered [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. is making headlines in the mortgage REIT sector due to its strategic shift towards becoming an alternative asset manager, which has garnered significant investor interest [1]. Company Overview - Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is transitioning from a mortgage REIT to an alternative asset manager, indicating a significant change in its business model [1]. - The company has been under observation by investors who are eager to see how this transition unfolds [1]. Industry Context - The mortgage REIT sector has experienced various cycles, including the rise and fall of subprime mortgage REITs and a resurgence post the Great Financial Crisis [1]. - The expansion of mortgage REITs into mortgage servicing rights and other real estate-related investments reflects the evolving landscape of the industry [1].

Core Viewpoint - Rithm (RITM) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system reflects changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Rithm suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to increased stock prices [5]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), and has shown a strong track record of performance [7][9]. - Only the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [10]. Recent Earnings Estimate Revisions for Rithm - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Rithm is expected to earn $2.15 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 1.6% over the past three months [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Rithm (RITM), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other indicators like the Zacks Rank for making informed investment decisions [1][5]. Brokerage Recommendations for Rithm - Rithm has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.44, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from nine brokerage firms [2]. - Among the nine recommendations, six are classified as Strong Buy (66.7%) and two as Buy (22.2%) [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Sole reliance on brokerage recommendations may not be prudent, as studies indicate limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [6][11]. Zacks Rank as an Alternative Indicator - The Zacks Rank categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more reliable indicator of near-term stock price performance [8][12]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than the ABR, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates and business trends [13]. Current Earnings Estimates for Rithm - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rithm has increased by 0.2% over the past month to $2.15, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - The recent change in consensus estimates, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) for Rithm, suggesting a favorable outlook for the stock [15].