(1) Full Year 2025 Financial Highlights: (1) | Q4 2025 | | Q3 2025 FY 2025 FY 2024 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Summary Operating Results: | | | | | | | (1) | | | | | | | | $ | 0.09 | $ | 0.35 $ 1.04 | $ 1.67 | | GAAP Net Income per Diluted Common Share | | | | | | | GAAP Net Income (in millions) | $ | 53.1 | $ | 193.7 $ 567.2 $ 835.0 | | | Non-GAAP Results: | | | | | | | (1)(2) | | | | | | | | $ | 0.74 | $ | 0.54 $ 2.35 | $ 2.10 | | Earnings Available for Distribution per Diluted Common ...

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that benefits from tax advantages and operates in asset management and servicing, which are crucial to its business model [1] Price Target Trends - Over the past year, Rithm Capital has seen a positive trend in its consensus price target, with the average price target rising from $14.75 a year ago to $16 last month, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [2] - The average price target for the last quarter was $15.17, reflecting an increase from the previous quarter, suggesting growing confidence in the company's performance or market conditions [2] - Raymond James has set a lower price target of $12.50 due to concerns over shaky servicing revenue, which could impact earnings [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have become more optimistic about Rithm Capital's prospects, as indicated by the upward trend in the consensus price target [3] - The upcoming financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, scheduled for release on February 3, 2026, are critical for assessing the company's future growth and stability [3] - Broader economic indicators and company performance should be considered, especially in comparison to 17 other mREIT peers [3]

The upcoming report from Rithm (RITM) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share, indicating a decline of 8.3% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $1.26 billion, representing a decline of 40% year over year.Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.Ahead of a company's earnings disclosu ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evaluation of new fixed-income financial products, specifically focusing on Rithm Capital's latest listed product and the methodologies used for IPO evaluation [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Rithm Capital is highlighted as a key player in the fixed-income market, with a focus on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds [1]. - The company is led by Denislav Iliev, who has over 15 years of experience in day trading and manages a team of 40 analysts [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment group Trade With Beta, led by Denislav Iliev, offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [1]. - The service includes an actively managed portfolio and a chat room for discussions among sophisticated traders and investors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corporation (NYSE:RITM) is identified as one of the most undervalued REIT stocks currently available for investment, with a Buy rating and a $16 price target from UBS following its acquisition of Paramount Group [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Acquisitions - The acquisition of Paramount Group and Crestline is aimed at increasing Rithm Capital's assets under management and enhancing earnings potential in its asset management division [1] - Following the Crestline acquisition, Rithm Capital now manages approximately $102 billion in investable assets [1] Group 2: Investor Confidence and Financial Outlook - UBS suggests that additional details regarding third-party cash related to the Paramount Group acquisition could enhance investor confidence in Rithm Capital's overall strategy [2] - The firm also highlights the potential for long-term increases in return on equity and value multiples if Rithm Capital successfully implements its asset management strategy [2] Group 3: Business Segments - Rithm Capital operates as an alternative asset manager with a focus on real estate and related services, structured across four segments: origination & servicing, investment portfolio, residential transitional lending, and asset management [3]

Core Insights - Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3, 2026, with earnings expected at 54 cents per share and revenues of $1.37 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 3 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a 10% decline from the previous year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year fall of 34.9% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $4.46 billion, reflecting a decrease of 14.8% year-over-year, while the EPS estimate is $2.14, indicating a 1.9% growth [3] Performance History - Rithm Capital has beaten the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.7% [4] Earnings Whispers - The model does not predict an earnings beat for RITM this time, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [5] Revenue Breakdown - The total asset management revenues are estimated at $277 million, a 3.2% increase year-over-year [6] - Net servicing revenues are projected to decline by 62.6% year-over-year, significantly impacting quarterly revenues [8] - The Origination & Servicing pre-tax income is expected to drop by 48.1%, despite gains from the Newrez business [6][9] Interest Income and Other Revenues - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter interest income indicates a 0.6% year-over-year decline, while other revenues are expected to decline by 17.3% [8] Competitive Landscape - While an earnings beat for Rithm Capital appears uncertain, companies like Cboe Global Markets, Credicorp Ltd., and Brookfield Asset Management are highlighted as having favorable conditions for potential earnings beats [10][11][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer regarding the lack of any stock, option, or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating a neutral stance [2]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the views of any affiliated organization [4].

Group 1 - Rithm Capital Corp. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on February 3, 2026, prior to the opening of the New York Stock Exchange [1] - A conference call will be hosted by management on February 3, 2026, at 8:00 A.M. Eastern Time [1] - The earnings release will be available on the Company's website in the Investors – Events & Presentations section [2] Group 2 - Participants can access the conference call by dialing specific numbers based on their location, with a pre-registration encouraged [2] - A simultaneous webcast of the conference call will be available for public listening on the Company's website [3] - A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available for a limited time after the call's completion [4] Group 3 - Rithm Capital Corp. is a global alternative asset manager with expertise in managing credit and real estate assets [5] - The firm operates an integrated investment platform that includes asset-based finance, lending, mortgage servicing rights, and structured credit [5] - Rithm has established a unique owner-operator model through its subsidiaries, enabling it to source, finance, and manage investments effectively [5]

Core Insights - Rithm Capital Corporation (NYSE:RITM) is gaining favor among hedge funds, with analysts issuing positive ratings and price targets indicating significant upside potential [1][3]. Analyst Ratings - Douglas Harter from UBS initiated coverage on Rithm Capital Corporation, assigning a Buy rating with a price target of $16, suggesting an upside of over 36% [1][2]. - Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love reaffirmed a Buy rating and raised his price target from $15 to $15.5, indicating an upside of nearly 32% [3]. Earnings Potential and Strategy - Harter's positive outlook is based on the strong earnings potential of Rithm's asset management segment, supported by an acquisitive strategy, including the recent acquisition of Paramount Group [2]. - Love highlighted the favorable near-term outlook due to a conducive mortgage environment and the company's diversification strategy across origination, investments, and servicing segments [4]. Company Overview - Rithm Capital Corporation operates as an alternative asset manager focused on real estate and related services, with four distinct segments: origination & servicing, investment portfolio, residential transitional lending, and asset management [5].

Group 1 - KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to 10 classes of mortgage-backed notes from New Residential Mortgage Loan Trust 2026-NQM1, a $502.1 million non-prime RMBS transaction sponsored by Rithm Capital Corp [1] - The underlying mortgages in the pool were primarily originated by NewRez LLC (52.6%) and Caliber Home Loans Inc, LLC (27.4%), with all loans serviced by NewRez LLC [1] - NRMLT 2026-NQM1 is collateralized by a pool of 1,014 residential mortgages, with 31.7% originally securitized in NRMLT 2022-NQM5, which has been called [2] Group 2 - Borrowers in NRMLT 2026-NQM1 have a weighted average original credit score of 758, a weighted average original loan-to-value (LTV) of 72.2%, and a weighted average combined LTV (CLTV) of 72.2% [2] - The loans are seasoned approximately 15 months, with 31.7% of the pool seasoned over 2 years [2] Group 3 - KBRA's rating approach included loan-level analysis through its Residential Asset Loss Model (REALM), third-party loan file due diligence, cash flow modeling analysis, and reviews of key transaction parties [3] - The assessment also involved an evaluation of the transaction's legal structure and documentation [3]