Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 28, 2025, with an estimated earnings of 51 cents per share and revenues of $1.25 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase in earnings but a slight revenue growth [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The second-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by one cent over the past 60 days, but it still indicates an 8.5% year-over-year increase [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 1.6% year-over-year rise [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $4.56 billion, which represents a 12.9% year-over-year decrease [3]. Recent Performance - Rithm Capital has consistently beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.6% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of -2.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Results - The diversified platform strength and strategic partnerships are expected to support second-quarter results, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year growth in interest income [5]. - The profitability of the Newrez business is likely to benefit the Origination & Servicing segment, with a projected 27.7% year-over-year increase in net gain on originated residential mortgage loans [7]. Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for asset management revenues is $100.19 million, down 8.4% year over year [9]. - The consensus estimate for net servicing revenues is $425.3 million, indicating a 1.3% year-over-year decline [9]. - Other revenues are projected to decline by 35.5% year over year [9].

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Rithm (RITM) reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 28. On the othe ...

In the latest close session, Rithm (RITM) was up +1.62% at $11.90. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.32%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.53%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.26%. The real estate investment trust's stock has climbed by 5.4% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 3.04% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.51%.The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Rithm in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is expected to report EPS o ...

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Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics compared to peers, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Part 1 Summary - RITM's book value as of March 31, 2025, is compared to 17 mREIT peers to enhance understanding of its financial standing [2] - The analysis aims to provide insights into RITM's performance relative to its peers, particularly in terms of dividend sustainability [4] Part 2 Summary - Part 2 focuses on RITM's dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics compared to 17 mREIT peers [3] - RITM's dividend history shows an increase from $0.35 per share in Q3 2014 to $0.50 by Q4 2019, followed by a cautious reduction to $0.05 during Q1 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [13] - RITM's dividend was increased to $0.25 per share in Q3 2021 and has remained constant since, contrasting with many peers that reduced dividends [15] Dividend Analysis - As of Q1 2025, RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per share, resulting in a TTM dividend yield of 8.78% and an annual forward yield of 8.07% based on book value [16] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) is a key metric for assessing dividend sustainability, with core earnings of $171.1 million reported for Q1 2023 [21] - The quarterly dividend distributions payout ratio for RITM has been attractive, with ratios of 71%, 41%, 43%, and 49% for Q1 to Q4 2023, respectively [21] Future Projections - RITM is projected to maintain a very high probability (90%) of a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q3 and Q4 2025 [30] - The estimated current book value as of June 20, 2025, is projected at $12.65 per share, with a price target of approximately $13.30 [36] Comparative Metrics - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield are modestly below average compared to its peer PMT, indicating a potential cushion for future dividend sustainability [28] - The analysis includes various metrics such as leverage ratios, core earnings, and dividend sustainability to provide a comprehensive view of RITM's financial health [17][30]

Company Performance - Rithm (RITM) closed at $11.29, reflecting a -1.4% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500 which lost 1.13% [1] - Over the past month, Rithm's shares have decreased by 1.55%, while the Finance sector gained 1.24% and the S&P 500 increased by 3.55% [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report for Rithm is expected to show an EPS of $0.52, representing a 10.64% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected at $1.22 billion, indicating a 0.61% decline from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $2.1 per share, with revenue expected to be $4.53 billion, reflecting no change in earnings and a -13.56% decrease in revenue from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Rithm are significant as they indicate shifting near-term business trends, with upward revisions suggesting positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Rithm currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with the consensus EPS estimate having increased by 2.78% over the past month [6] - The Forward P/E ratio for Rithm is 5.46, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.21 [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Rithm belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 137, placing it in the bottom 45% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating the competitive landscape within the sector [8]

Core Insights - The article focuses on analyzing Rithm Capital Corp.'s (RITM) recent performance and comparing it with 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers, highlighting key metrics such as investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and economic returns [1][2][3]. Investment Composition and Performance - As of March 31, 2025, RITM's investment portfolio consisted of 21% fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), 0% variable-rate agency MBS, and 36% allocated to mortgage servicing rights (MSR) investments, with 43% in non-agency MBS and non-MBS holdings [17][18]. - RITM's book value (BV) per share decreased from $12.56 at the end of Q4 2024 to $12.39 at the end of Q1 2025, resulting in a quarterly BV decrease of 1.35% [20][21]. - Despite the minor BV decrease, RITM has managed to grow its BV over the past three years, outperforming most mREIT peers in terms of economic return [21][48]. Leverage and Hedging Coverage - RITM's on-balance sheet leverage ratio was 2.6x, with an at-risk (total) leverage ratio of 1.1x as of March 31, 2025, indicating a slight decrease in on-balance sheet leverage and a slight increase in at-risk leverage compared to the previous quarter [19][49]. - The hedging coverage ratio for RITM was geared towards lower mortgage interest rates, which helped mitigate BV volatility during periods of declining rates [50]. Economic Returns and Valuation - RITM's trailing 24-month economic return was 23.31%, significantly outperforming the average returns of its mREIT peers, which ranged from 2.43% to 20.02% across various classifications [48]. - As of June 6, 2025, RITM's stock price was trading at a 9.64% discount to the estimated current BV of $12.55 per share, suggesting that RITM is slightly undervalued compared to its peers [45][46]. Diversification and Investment Strategy - RITM's investment strategy includes a diverse array of financial investments, which provides natural hedges against market fluctuations, particularly in rising interest rate environments [25][26]. - The company has recently expanded its asset management services and diversified its investment portfolio through acquisitions, including Sculptor Capital Management [27][31].

Core Insights - Rithm Capital (NYSE: RITM) reported a mixed earnings scorecard for Q1'25, with a decline in the value of mortgage servicing rights negatively impacting the REIT's earnings [1] Group 1 - The change in the value of mortgage servicing rights was a significant headwind for Rithm Capital's earnings [1] - Despite the challenges, Rithm Capital was able to support its earnings [1]

Core Insights - The value of mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM) is highlighted as a strong investment option amid market volatility, offering passive income through ultra-safe dividends and yields [1] Group 1 - Rithm Capital Corp. is positioned as a resilient investment choice for passive income investors [1] - The mortgage trust sector is noted for its ability to provide stability during uncertain market conditions [1]