GEOST LLC ACQUISITION INVESTOR UPDATE 27 May, 2025 Sir Peter Beck, CEO & Adam Spice, CFO To supplement our unaudited consolidated financial statements presented on a basis consistent with GAAP, we disclose certain non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP gross margin, operating expenses, research and development expenses, and non-GAAP net selling, general and administrative expenses. These supplemental measures exclude the effects of (i) stock-based compensation expense; (ii) amortization of purchase ...

Summary of Rocket Lab's Acquisition of Geos LLC Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Rocket Lab - **Acquisition Target**: Geos LLC - **Industry**: Aerospace and Defense, specifically focusing on national security and satellite technology Core Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: Rocket Lab has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Geos for a total of $275 million, which includes $125 million in cash and $150 million in Rocket Lab common stock, plus a potential earn-out of $50 million based on revenue targets for 2026 and 2027 [5][14] 2. **Strategic Importance**: This acquisition marks Rocket Lab's entry into the payload market, positioning the company as a prime contractor for U.S. National Security missions [5][6] 3. **Technology Integration**: The acquisition will enhance Rocket Lab's capabilities by integrating Geos' technology, which is critical for missile warning, tactical intelligence, and earth observation [6][10] 4. **Market Positioning**: Rocket Lab is already a trusted contractor for U.S. National Security, and this acquisition will allow the company to offer a complete end-to-end solution, enhancing its competitive edge [7][12] 5. **Future Growth Opportunities**: The acquisition aligns with upcoming contracts from the Space Development Agency, particularly the Tranche three procurement for missile tracking and defense satellites [15][16] 6. **Financial Health**: Rocket Lab reported cash and cash equivalents of $517 million as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong financial positioning to support the acquisition [14] 7. **Expected Impact**: The acquisition is anticipated to be neutral to modestly accretive to adjusted EBITDA in the second half of the year, although GAAP forecasts are not yet available [16] Additional Important Content 1. **Operational Expansion**: The acquisition will bring additional facilities, including clean rooms and laboratories in Arizona and Virginia, enhancing Rocket Lab's operational footprint in the U.S. [13] 2. **Defense Community Relationships**: Both Rocket Lab and Geos share many of the same defense and intelligence customers, which will facilitate a more integrated suite of solutions for U.S. Government operators [12] 3. **Regulatory Approval**: The acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, including antitrust reviews, but has already been approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies [16] 4. **Timeline for Closure**: The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2025 [16]

Group 1 - The core focus of Pythia Research is on identifying multi-bagger stocks, particularly within the technology sector, utilizing a multidisciplinary approach that includes financial analysis, behavioral finance, and alternative metrics [1] - The strategy aims to uncover breakout opportunities before they gain mainstream attention by analyzing market sentiment and emerging trends [1] - Pythia Research emphasizes the importance of understanding investor behavior and psychological biases, which can create persistent inefficiencies in the market [1] Group 2 - The company evaluates investment opportunities based on their risk/reward profile, seeking limited downside and explosive upside potential [1] - Pythia Research looks for disconnects between market perception and reality, particularly in companies that are redefining their categories or have unconventional growth paths [1] - The process involves deep research and identifying signals that others may overlook, such as shifts in narrative and early social traction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rocket Lab is experiencing a recovery in its stock price following a series of positive press releases, but concerns remain about its valuation and future earnings potential [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Rocket Lab's stock price is currently just under $26, reflecting a 9% increase since the earnings miss on May 8, but is still 20% below its January intraday high [1]. - The company is valued at approximately $12 billion, translating to an earnings multiple of 11 times projected earnings based on future revenue estimates [4]. - Analysts predict Rocket Lab will achieve $3.5 billion in annual revenue and $1.1 billion in profit within five years, but current forecasts indicate a loss of $193 million for the year [3][5]. Group 2: Earnings and Market Sentiment - The stock's current valuation is based on forward earnings, which may not materialize as expected, leading to a high trailing sales multiple of over 27 times [5][6]. - Rocket Lab's stock price is heavily influenced by market sentiment and headlines, making it behave like a momentum stock [8]. - The anticipated launch of the Neutron reusable rocket is seen as a significant catalyst, but any delays could negatively impact the stock price without affecting long-term growth prospects [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The current stock price may be too high, but there is potential for it to decrease, presenting a more attractive buying opportunity in the future [7]. - A decline in stock price due to negative news could create a favorable entry point for long-term investors [10][11].

Core Insights - Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB) has experienced a significant stock appreciation of 91% since the initiation of a "Buy" rating in November 2024 [1] Group 1 - The stock's performance indicates strong market interest and potential growth in the aerospace sector [1] - The analysis is provided by a chief investment analyst with extensive experience in navigating diverse asset classes and information [1] - The investing group, Beyond the Wall Investing, offers insights similar to those prioritized by institutional market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market volatility presents opportunities for long-term investors to acquire growth stocks at lower prices, specifically highlighting Tesla and Rocket Lab as attractive options due to their recent stock price declines [1][2]. Tesla - Tesla's stock has decreased by 15% this year, primarily due to disappointing sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk's involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency [4]. - Despite the decline, Tesla has several positive catalysts, including the potential success of its robotaxi launch, which could generate significant recurring revenue [5]. - The company has transitioned Model Y production to a new model, plans to release lower-cost vehicles, and aims to mass-produce the Cybercab robotaxi by 2026, with an unsupervised autonomy launch planned for June [6]. - There is skepticism regarding Tesla's ability to meet its robotaxi and full-service driving goals, but the delay may benefit the company as public acceptance of robotaxis increases [7]. Rocket Lab - Rocket Lab's stock has seen a decline of over 6% since the start of 2025, despite the S&P 500 rising by 0.3%, presenting a buying opportunity for growth investors [9]. - Concerns about the company's ability to launch its Neutron rocket in 2025 have contributed to the stock's decline, following a critical report from Bleecker Street Research [10]. - The company remains confident in its 2025 launch timeline for the Neutron rocket and anticipates bidding on U.S. Space Force contracts valued at $5.6 billion [11]. - Rocket Lab reported a 32% year-over-year revenue growth to $122.6 million in Q1 2025 and ended the quarter with a backlog of $1.067 billion, indicating strong demand for its services [12]. - As Rocket Lab is still unprofitable, traditional valuation metrics are less applicable, but the recent stock decline offers a lower entry point for forward-looking investors [13].

Core Viewpoint - Rocket Lab USA, Inc. has secured a significant NASA contract for the Aspera astrophysics mission, enhancing its reputation in advanced space science and potentially driving long-term revenue growth [1][2]. Company Performance - Rocket Lab's stock has increased by 30.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks aerospace-defense industry's growth of 8.3%, the broader Zacks Aerospace sector's rise of 5.8%, and the S&P 500's decline of 0.1% during the same period [4]. - The company has been actively expanding its role in both government and commercial space sectors, with notable contracts and launches contributing to its stock performance [6][12]. Recent Developments - Rocket Lab announced the launch of its new medium-lift reusable rocket, Neutron, for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory's Rocket Cargo mission [7]. - The company was selected to launch a hypersonic test flight for the Department of Defense and introduced customizable solar arrays for satellite power needs [8]. - A $5.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force under the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program was secured, allowing competition for national security launches [9]. - Rocket Lab's partnership with the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space was expanded, and it successfully completed a hypersonic tech test mission for the Department of Defense [10]. Market Outlook - The commercial space sector is booming, driven by rising global security concerns, which is expected to increase demand for Rocket Lab's launch services and satellite solutions [13]. - The space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, bolstering Rocket Lab's growth prospects [14]. Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rocket Lab's sales in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year growth of 32.1% and 48.2%, respectively [15]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 also reflect positive growth, with a notable upward trend in analysts' confidence regarding the company's earnings generation capabilities [16]. Valuation Metrics - Rocket Lab's forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 16.77X, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.05X, indicating a premium valuation [22]. - Comparatively, industry peers like Embraer and RTX are trading at lower P/S ratios of 1.17X and 2.11X, respectively [23].

Core Insights - Rocket Lab USA Inc. has gained significant popularity among retail investors, with a stock price increase of over 300% in 2024, although it has remained relatively flat in 2025 [1] - The company is recognized for its multiple revenue streams, including reliable launch services, satellite manufacturing, and spacecraft components [1] - Rocket Lab's flagship Electron rocket has been launched 63 times as of April 2025, establishing a strong foundation for the business [1] Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - Global demand for small satellite launches is expected to exceed 10,000 by 2030, positioning Rocket Lab to capture significant market share [2] - The upcoming Neutron rocket, designed for medium-lift missions, is scheduled for its maiden flight in the second half of 2025, representing a strategic move to compete with SpaceX [3] - The Neutron rocket is a key component of Rocket Lab's strategy to scale operations and enhance its relevance in the expanding space economy [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Rocket Lab reported revenue of $123 million, a 32% year-over-year increase, with launch services generating $38 million and space systems contributing $85 million [5] - Despite the revenue growth, the company posted a loss of $0.12 per share and negative GAAP operating cash flow of $54.2 million for the quarter, with R&D expenses rising due to Neutron's development [5] - Rocket Lab maintains a solid balance sheet with $517 million in cash and equivalents, allowing for continued investment in growth initiatives [6] Group 3: Recent Developments and Contracts - Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket has been selected for the U.S. Department of Defense's $5.6 billion National Security Space Launch program, highlighting its strategic importance [7] - The company received a $5 million task order to demonstrate mission assurance capabilities and a separate contract from the U.S. Air Force for a future Neutron launch [8] - A NASA contract for the Aspera mission, set to launch no earlier than Q1 2026, could enhance Rocket Lab's reputation in advanced science missions [9] Group 4: Long-Term Industry Outlook - The global space economy is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2040, presenting significant long-term growth opportunities for Rocket Lab [10] - The company has established itself as a reliable small satellite launcher and is now expanding into national defense and large-scale missions [11]

Core Investment Philosophy - Investing in the stock market requires extraordinary patience, as demonstrated by Warren Buffett's transformation of Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a diversified holding company, resulting in a $1,000 investment in 1965 being worth over $42 million today, showcasing the power of compounding returns over time [1] Growth Companies - The lesson emphasizes that when a genuine winner is found, it is crucial to resist the urge to sell, as small growth companies can evolve into mid-cap powerhouses and eventually stable, dividend-paying large caps, creating significant wealth for patient shareholders [2] Company Highlights - **Intuitive Machines**: Dominates the lunar economy with successful Moon landings and exclusive contracts, positioned to benefit from the developing multitrillion-dollar space economy as lunar missions accelerate [5] - **Palantir Technologies**: Leverages AI to solve complex data problems for governments and Fortune 500 companies, with its Artificial Intelligence Platform driving explosive commercial growth and creating high-margin revenue streams [6] - **Rocket Lab USA**: Provides end-to-end space solutions, capturing multiple revenue streams across the space value chain, with a reliable rocket and expanding reusability program for the small satellite market [7] - **Serve Robotics**: Leads in autonomous delivery with sidewalk robots generating revenue in major cities, partnered with Uber to enhance distribution and address last-mile delivery challenges [8] - **Archer Aviation**: Pioneers electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for urban air mobility, with a $6 billion order backlog and partnerships with major operators, aiming to transform urban transportation [9] - **Joby Aviation**: Complements Archer in the eVTOL space with advanced aircraft technology and a partnership with Toyota, achieving significant regulatory milestones and operational testing [10] - **Rigetti Computing**: Develops quantum computing systems with cloud-based access, positioned at the forefront of the quantum computing race, offering exposure to a technology that could revolutionize various fields [11]

I last covered Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB ) back in April , when we had just learnt the big news of a potential new government contract on the table. A whopping $5.6 billion U.S. Space Force contract, and investorsI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, w ...