分组1 - Two stocks in the health care sector are signaling potential warnings for momentum-focused investors as of December 16, 2025 [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key momentum indicator, with values above 70 indicating that a stock may be overbought [2] - Avidity Biosciences reported quarterly losses of $1.27 per share, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.11, but its quarterly sales of $12.475 million exceeded expectations of $1.932 million [5] - Avidity's stock has increased approximately 141% over the past six months, with a 52-week high of $71.90, and currently has an RSI value of 76 [5] - Henry Schein's stock has gained around 6% over the past five days, reaching a 52-week high of $82.49, with an RSI value of 71.1 [5] 分组2 - Avidity Biosciences has entered into a merger agreement with Novartis, which is expected to enhance value for investors and expand its neuroscience pipeline [5] - Barclays analyst initiated coverage on Henry Schein with an Overweight rating and a price target of $86 [5] - Avidity's stock closed at $71.86, while Henry Schein's shares closed at $77.39 on the same day [5]

As of Dec. 16, 2025, two stocks in the health care sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock’s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered overbought when the RSI is above 70, according to B ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Avidity Biosciences, Inc. on BiotechBonanza’s Substack by  AnotherBio. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RNA. Avidity Biosciences, Inc.'s share was trading at $71.54 as of December 2nd. microscope, health Tonhom1009/Shutterstock.com Novartis is acquiring Avidity RNA, a pre-Phase 3 biotech company, in a straightforward deal with no overlap between the two businesses. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, though timing unce ...

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on Novartis AG ADR, highlighting its performance and potential investment opportunities within the healthcare sector [1] - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund is discussed as a key investment vehicle, reflecting trends and movements in the healthcare industry [1] - iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF is analyzed for its role in capturing growth in genomics and immunology, indicating a shift towards innovative healthcare solutions [1]

Core Insights - Avidity Biosciences has launched a Managed Access Program (MAP) for its investigational therapy delpacibart zotadirsen (del-zota) aimed at individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy mutations amenable to exon 44 skipping (DMD44) in the U.S. [1][2] - The MAP is designed to provide del-zota to eligible patients quickly, with enrollment expected to begin by the end of 2025 [2][3] - Avidity plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for del-zota in 2026 following a pre-BLA meeting with the FDA [3] Company Overview - Avidity Biosciences focuses on developing a new class of RNA therapeutics known as Antibody Oligonucleotide Conjugates (AOCs) [6] - The company aims to address previously unreachable targets and diseases using its proprietary AOC platform [6] - Avidity is advancing clinical programs for rare muscle diseases, including Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and has received multiple designations from the FDA for del-zota [5][6] Product Details - Del-zota is designed to skip exon 44 of the dystrophin gene, enabling dystrophin production in patients with DMD44 [5] - The Phase 1/2 EXPLORE44 trial demonstrated significant increases in dystrophin production and improvements in muscle function, with a favorable safety profile [5] - Del-zota has received designations such as Rare Pediatric Disease, Orphan Drug, Fast Track, and Breakthrough Therapy from the FDA [5]

Core Insights - Avidity Biosciences reported a quarterly loss of $1.27 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.05, and a significant increase from a loss of $0.65 per share a year ago, indicating a negative earnings surprise of -20.95% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $12.48 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 399%, and showing substantial growth from $2.34 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Avidity Biosciences shares have increased by approximately 140.2% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 14.4% [3] Financial Performance - Over the last four quarters, Avidity Biosciences has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once, while it has topped revenue estimates three times [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$1.00 on revenues of $2.65 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$4.30 on revenues of $8.79 million [7] Industry Context - Avidity Biosciences operates within the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which is currently ranked in the top 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [8] - The performance of Avidity Biosciences' stock may be influenced by the overall industry trends, as empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions [5][8]

Drug Development and Clinical Trials - The company is developing a new class of RNA therapeutics called Antibody Oligonucleotide Conjugates (AOCs) targeting previously untreatable diseases[85]. - Delpacibart zotadirsen (del-zota) is in Phase 2 development for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and has shown a 25% increase in dystrophin production and over 80% reduction in creatine kinase levels compared to baseline[92]. - The FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to del-zota for the treatment of DMD44 in July 2025[94]. - Delpacibart etedesiran (del-desiran) is currently in a global Phase 3 trial for myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) with a focus on multiple key functional aspects[96]. - The HARBOR trial for del-desiran involves 159 participants and is designed to assess myotonia and muscle strength, with a primary endpoint of video hand opening time (vHOT)[96]. - The company plans to submit a protocol amendment for the HARBOR trial to extend the data cutoff from 30 weeks to 54 weeks, enhancing the safety and efficacy data[99]. - The Phase 3 HARBOR trial is fully enrolled with 159 participants, and multiple updates from the del-desiran program are expected[100]. - The del-brax program received FDA alignment on accelerated and full approval pathways, with positive topline Phase 1/2 data showing improvements compared to placebo[101]. - Topline data from the FORTITUDE biomarker cohort is anticipated in Q2 2026, while FORTITUDE-3 data readout and global regulatory submissions are expected in 2028[102]. - The FORTITUDE-3 study will evaluate del-brax in approximately 200 participants, assessing key FSHD-related endpoints over 18 months[108]. Financial Performance and Funding - The company reported net losses of $322.3 million and $212.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, with an accumulated deficit of $1.3 billion as of September 30, 2025[112]. - Existing cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities amount to approximately $1.9 billion, expected to fund operations for at least 12 months[114]. - The company entered into a collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb, receiving approximately $100 million upfront and potential milestone payments totaling up to $1.35 billion[115]. - Under the collaboration with Eli Lilly, the company is eligible for up to $60 million in development milestone payments per target and tiered royalties on net sales[116]. - Revenue increased by $10.1 million and $10.0 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to the recognition of a $10.0 million milestone under the Lilly Agreement[128]. - Research and development expenses increased by $77.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to increased external costs associated with clinical trials and preclinical studies[130]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $23.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to $11.4 million in higher personnel costs[131]. - Other income decreased by $3.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower interest income earned on marketable securities[132]. - Net cash used in operating activities was $480.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to increased research and development costs[140]. - Net cash used in investing activities was $245.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily for purchases of marketable securities[141]. - Net cash provided by financing activities was $856.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, consisting of $837.4 million in net proceeds from sales of common stock[142]. - The company sold 5,646,583 shares of common stock under the 2024 Sales Agreement, receiving net proceeds of $185.5 million[133]. - On September 15, 2025, the company completed a public offering of 17,250,000 shares at a price of $40.00 per share, netting approximately $651.4 million[134]. Mergers and Agreements - A merger agreement with Novartis AG was entered into on October 25, 2025, with expected closure in the first half of 2026[86]. - The merger includes a spin-off of early-stage precision cardiology programs, with a proposed distribution ratio of 1 share of SpinCo for every 10 shares of the company’s common stock[87]. - A termination fee of $450 million is stipulated in the merger agreement, while a reverse termination fee of $600 million is applicable under certain conditions[88]. Operational Commitments and Changes - The company entered into a sublease agreement in April 2024 with total future lease commitments of approximately $79.2 million, commencing in August 2025[145]. - An additional 80,000 square feet was rented under an amended sublease agreement, with future lease commitments of approximately $53.7 million[145]. - A manufacturing agreement was established in August 2025 with a CMO, requiring minimum purchase obligations totaling approximately $621.6 million from 2026 to 2028[146]. - There have been no material changes to contractual obligations outside the ordinary course of business as of September 30, 2025[148]. - As of September 30, 2025, there have been no material changes in market risk from the previous annual report[150].

Merger and Acquisition - Avidity entered into a definitive merger agreement with Novartis for a total equity value of approximately $12 billion[1]. - The expected closing of the Novartis acquisition is in the first half of 2026, contingent on the separation of Avidity's early-stage precision cardiology programs into a new public company, SpinCo[3]. Financial Performance - Collaboration revenues for Q3 2025 were $12.5 million, compared to $2.3 million for Q3 2024, primarily driven by a $10 million milestone from Eli Lilly[6]. - Collaboration revenue for Q3 2025 was $12.475 million, a significant increase from $2.336 million in Q3 2024, representing a growth of 434%[16]. - Total operating expenses for Q3 2025 reached $201.281 million, compared to $100.470 million in Q3 2024, indicating a 100% increase[16]. - Net loss for Q3 2025 was $174.442 million, compared to a net loss of $80.398 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 117% increase in losses[16]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $350.158 million, up from $219.868 million at the end of 2024, showing a 59% increase[16]. - Total assets increased to $2.134 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $1.563 billion at the end of 2024, representing a growth of 36.5%[16]. - Total liabilities rose to $247.944 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $138.936 million at the end of 2024, indicating an increase of 78.5%[16]. - The company reported other income of $14.364 million in Q3 2025, down from $17.736 million in Q3 2024, a decrease of 19.5%[16]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were $154.9 million, up from $77.2 million in Q3 2024, reflecting increased costs for del-desiran, del-brax, and del-zota[6]. - Research and development expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $392.563 million, up from $207.968 million in the same period of 2024, a 89% increase[16]. - Avidity plans to submit a BLA for del-zota in 2026 following a successful pre-BLA meeting with the FDA[4]. - Del-zota demonstrated sustained muscle protection and meaningful improvement in disease progression across multiple functional measures after one year of treatment[4]. - Avidity's del-desiran Phase 3 HARBOR trial completed enrollment in July 2025, with topline data expected in the second half of 2026[4]. - Avidity's del-brax is aligned with the FDA on accelerated and full approval pathways, with global regulatory submissions expected in 2028[4]. Administrative Expenses - General and administrative expenses for Q3 2025 were $46.3 million, compared to $23.3 million in Q3 2024, due to higher personnel and commercial infrastructure costs[6]. - General and administrative expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $116.797 million, compared to $57.902 million in 2024, reflecting a 101% increase[16]. Shareholder Information - The weighted-average shares outstanding for Q3 2025 were 137.895 million, compared to 123.375 million in Q3 2024, an increase of 11.8%[16].

Core Insights - Avidity Biosciences has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Novartis for a total equity value of approximately $12 billion, which is expected to maximize value for investors and enhance the global reach of Avidity's neuroscience pipeline [1][2][6] - Avidity's del-zota program has shown promising one-year data, demonstrating sustained muscle protection and significant improvement in disease progression for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy [1][6] - The company reported a strong balance sheet with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025, which is expected to fund operations until mid-2028 [1][6] Company Announcements - The merger with Novartis is set to close in the first half of 2026, following the separation of Avidity's early-stage precision cardiology programs into a new public company, SpinCo [1][6] - Avidity's CEO, Sarah Boyce, will transition to chair of the board of SpinCo, while Kathleen Gallagher will lead SpinCo as CEO [6] Financial Results - For the third quarter of 2025, Avidity reported collaboration revenues of $12.5 million, a significant increase from $2.3 million in the same period of 2024 [13] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were $154.9 million, compared to $77.2 million in Q3 2024, reflecting increased costs associated with advancing key programs [13] - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $174.4 million, compared to a net loss of $80.4 million in Q3 2024 [13] Clinical Development Progress - Avidity's del-zota program has received Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA and is on track for a BLA submission in 2026 [6] - The company is advancing its del-desiran program for myotonic dystrophy type 1, with topline data from the Phase 3 HARBOR trial expected in the second half of 2026 [6] - Avidity is also progressing its del-brax program for facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy, with data readouts expected in 2026 [6]

Core Insights - Catherine Dargan, a partner at Covington, is recognized for her leadership in multibillion-dollar mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the life sciences sector [1][2] - Dargan has built a premier M&A practice over 25 years, representing major clients like Merck and Novartis, and has led significant deals such as Novartis' $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences [2] - The M&A landscape is expected to remain active despite external challenges, with a focus on acquiring innovative products in medical, technology, and AI sectors [3] Company Overview - Covington's Corporate Practice, under Dargan's leadership, has a strong regulatory background that benefits its life sciences niche [2] - The firm emphasizes collaboration and expertise to help clients navigate risks in an uncertain economic environment [4] Industry Trends - There is tight competition for innovative products, prompting companies to pursue acquisitions proactively [3] - Dargan's role extends beyond legal counsel to being a trusted advisor for corporations considering megadeals [3][4]