Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Red Robin despite lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Red Robin is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.57 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +28.8% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $387.4 million, a decrease of 0.3% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.57% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Red Robin is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to an Earnings ESP of -2.35% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [7][8]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically shown a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - Red Robin has not been able to beat consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a significant surprise of -74.07% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - Red Robin does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when evaluating the stock ahead of its earnings release [16].

Company Overview - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant chain founded in 1969, operating under the trade name Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and Brews [4] - The company serves a variety of gourmet burgers, salads, appetizers, entrees, desserts, signature beverages, and Donatos® pizza at select locations [4] - Red Robin operates nearly 500 locations in the United States and Canada, including those under franchise agreements [4] Financial Results Announcement - The company will release its financial results for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 on May 29, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss these results is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on the same day [1] Conference Call Details - The conference call can be accessed live by dialing 201-689-8560 or through the Call Me™ feature [2] - A replay of the conference call will be available approximately two hours after its conclusion, accessible by dialing 412-317-6671 with the conference ID 13753452, available until June 5, 2025 [2] - The call will also be webcast live and archived on the company's Investor Relations website [3]

Group 1: Promotions and Offers - Red Robin is launching the Bottomless Burger Pass, available for purchase starting April 17, 2025, for $20, allowing guests to enjoy one gourmet burger and a bottomless side each day in May 2025 [1][2] - The Bottomless Burger Pass has a daily limit of $22, totaling a potential value of up to $682 for the month [4] - Red Robin Royalty members can enter a sweepstakes to win free burgers for a year by purchasing a burger and beverage during May 2025 [3][5] Group 2: New Menu Items - Red Robin is introducing new seasonal menu items starting April 28, 2025, including the Backyard BBQ Pork Burger and Peach-Berry Freckled Lemonade [2][6] - The Backyard BBQ Pork Burger features hickory-smoked pulled pork and various toppings, while the Peach-Berry Freckled Lemonade combines lemonade with diced peaches and strawberries [6] Group 3: Company Overview - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant chain founded in 1969, known for its variety of gourmet burgers and casual dining atmosphere [7] - The company operates nearly 500 locations in the U.S. and Canada, offering online ordering for to-go, delivery, and catering services [7]

Company Overview - Red Robin is planning to potentially close 70 underperforming locations as part of its operational turnaround strategy [2] - The company recorded a loss of $32.4 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, largely due to the review of underperforming restaurants [2] - Red Robin plans to sell three properties in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, expecting to generate $5.8 million to help repay its debt [2] Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is witnessing a trend of closures among fast-food eateries due to financial difficulties, with many chains struggling after accumulating debt during the pandemic [5] - Consumer spending at restaurants has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to declining traffic in the quick-service sector [5] - Other companies, such as TGI Friday's and Denny's, have also filed for bankruptcy protection, while some have reduced their footprint to adapt to the current market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, with earnings falling short of estimates while revenues exceeded expectations, although both metrics declined year over year [1][10]. Financial Performance - The adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter was 94 cents, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 54 cents, compared to a loss of 66 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Quarterly revenues reached $285.2 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $281 million, but represented a 7.7% decline year over year. Comparable restaurant revenues increased by 1.8% year over year [6]. Operational Insights - The restaurant-level operating profit margin was 11.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 12.2% in the prior year, and below the projected 15.4% [7]. - Restaurant labor costs were $109.1 million, down from $114.7 million in the prior year, but higher than the projected $104.5 million [7]. - Other operating costs were $48.2 million, compared to $50.8 million in the prior year, slightly above the estimate of $47.2 million [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $12.7 million, an increase from $10.6 million in the prior year, and above the estimate of $11.3 million [8]. Financial Position - As of December 29, 2024, RRGB had cash and cash equivalents of $30.7 million, up from $23.6 million a year earlier. Long-term debt was $181.6 million, slightly down from $182.6 million in the prior year [9]. Fiscal 2024 Overview - Total revenues for fiscal 2024 were $1.25 billion, down from $1.3 billion in fiscal 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $38.8 million, compared to $68.9 million in fiscal 2023. The adjusted loss per share for the year was $3.34, compared to a loss of $1.44 in the previous year [10]. Fiscal 2025 Guidance - The company projects total revenues for fiscal 2025 to be between $1.225 billion and $1.250 billion, with restaurant-level operating profit expected to range from 12% to 13%. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $60 million and $65 million [11].

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. introduces the Buzzer Beater Bacon Cheeseburger, a limited-time offering designed to attract college basketball fans during the tournament season [1][5] - The burger features three beef patties, four strips of hardwood-smoked bacon, and six slices of American cheese, served with a bottomless side [2][3] - The promotion runs from March 3 to April 7, with an additional $0 delivery offer available from April 5-7 for online orders [5] Product Details - The Buzzer Beater Bacon Cheeseburger is available in two variations: a "three-pointer" with three beef patties and a "two-pointer" with two beef patties [2][3] - Both burger options come with a choice of bottomless sides, including steak fries, sweet potato fries, and coleslaw [4] Company Strategy - The company aims to enhance the dining experience by offering "game-changing" gourmet burgers that are crafted on flattop grills to maximize flavor [5] - Red Robin encourages customer engagement through its Red Robin Royalty® program, which offers rewards and exclusive deals [5][6] Company Background - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant chain founded in 1969, operating nearly 500 locations in the U.S. and Canada [6] - The company focuses on creating memorable dining experiences centered around burgers and a playful atmosphere [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues were $285.2 million compared to $309 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to a reduction in operating weeks from 13 to 12 [31] - Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by an increase in guest check average, despite a decline in guest traffic [32] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $12.7 million, a $2 million increase from Q4 2023, attributed to reduced selling and G&A expenses [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dine-in guest satisfaction scores improved by approximately 8 percentage points compared to 2023, surpassing the casual dining average [6] - The revamped Red Robin Royalty program added approximately 1.5 million members in 2024, totaling around 14.9 million members by year-end [7][8] - The company set approximately 1,400 sales records since launching the North Star plan [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 600 basis point improvement in traffic trends from Q1 to Q4 2024 [4] - Restaurant level operating profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue was 11.5%, a decrease of 70 basis points compared to Q4 2023 [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to further improve traffic trends and operational efficiency in 2025, focusing on guest engagement and loyalty programs [12][13] - New menu items and promotions are planned for 2025, including the Hot Honey platform and ongoing value promotions [16][18] - The company is committed to closing underperforming restaurants, expecting to close 10 to 15 locations in 2025 [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's comeback plan and the potential for continued traffic improvements in 2025 [12][44] - The focus will be on enhancing guest experience while managing costs effectively to drive profitability [26][27] - Management highlighted the importance of the Loyalty 2.0 program in driving guest traffic and engagement [15][84] Other Important Information - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to be between $1.225 billion and $1.25 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $60 million to $65 million [38][40] - Capital expenditures are projected to be between $25 million and $30 million for 2025 [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Balance between driving frequency and improving margins - Management noted that pricing adjustments were primarily on the West Coast and that they aim to maintain a balance between traffic growth and cost management [49][50] Question: Trends in menu mix and discounts - Management expects discounts to increase year-over-year in Q1 and Q2 but normalize in Q3 and Q4, with positive trends in add-on purchases [55][56] Question: Quarter-to-date trends and momentum - Management indicated a good start to the year, with expectations for same-store sales around plus three for the quarter [66] Question: Restaurant level margin improvement sources - The majority of margin improvement is expected to come from labor efficiencies rather than cost of goods sold [70] Question: Initiatives to drive takeout sales - Management is optimistic about third-party sales and plans to enhance digital engagement to improve this segment [73] Question: Marketing budget and changes - The marketing budget remains similar to last year, with a focus on a comprehensive program across various channels [76] Question: Loyalty program growth and impact - Management reported significant growth from both new and lapsed users in the loyalty program, contributing to improved traffic [84] Question: Expected restaurant closures and timing - Management confirmed that the expected closures are included in the guidance and will be spread throughout the year [98] Question: Commodity cost insights - The commodity basket is expected to experience standard inflation around 3%, with ground beef seeing the most inflation [100] Question: Menu newness and competition - The Hot Honey platform is expected to perform well, with no direct competition from last year [110]

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 26, 2024 4:30 PM ET Company Participants G.J. Hart - President and CEO Todd Wilson - CFO Conference Call Participants Alex Slagle - Jefferies Jeremy Hamblin - Craig-Hallum Andrew Wolf - C.L. King Mark Smith - Lake Street Capital Todd Brooks - Benchmark Company Operator Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded. Du ...

For the quarter ended December 2024, Red Robin (RRGB) reported revenue of $285.23 million, down 7.7% over the same period last year. EPS came in at -$0.94, compared to -$0.66 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $285.21 million, representing a surprise of +0.01%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -74.07%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.54.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- a ...

Red Robin (RRGB) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.94 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.54. This compares to loss of $0.66 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -74.07%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this casual restaurant chain would post a loss of $0.87 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.13, delivering a surprise of -29.89%.Over the last four quarters, the company ...