Core Insights - Red Robin (RRGB) reported quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.25 per share, and showing improvement from a loss of $0.48 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +204.00% [1] - The company posted revenues of $283.7 million for the quarter ended June 2025, which was a miss against the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.53%, and a decline from year-ago revenues of $300.15 million [2] - Red Robin shares have increased by approximately 12.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 9.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.78 on revenues of $265.2 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$1.12 on revenues of $1.22 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Red Robin was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Red Robin belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the outlook for the industry can significantly impact stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q2 2025 were $283.7 million, down from $300.2 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a decrease of 5.1% [18] - Comparable restaurant revenue decreased by 3.2%, with a 4.4% increase in net menu price offset by a 5.5% decline in guest traffic [18] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $22.4 million, up $8.8 million from the previous year, driven by cost efficiency gains, particularly in labor [20] - Restaurant level operating profit margin improved by 270 basis points year over year to 14.5% [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The "Hold Serve" initiative focused on maintaining labor efficiency, resulting in a significant improvement in restaurant level operating profit margin [6][18] - The "Drive Traffic" initiative included the launch of the Big Yum Burger deal, which has shown early success in improving traffic [8][24] - The "Find Money" initiative led to a reduction in general and administrative costs, with expectations of $3 million to $4 million in benefits for 2025 [10][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Guest traffic trends decelerated through the quarter, attributed to increased competitive promotional activity [18] - The company expects comparable restaurant sales to decline by 3% to 4% for the remainder of the year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The First Choice Plan aims to return the business to sustained growth in traffic and same-store sales, focusing on five key pillars: hold serve, drive traffic, find money, fix restaurants, and win together [4][5] - The company is investing in critical deferred maintenance and restaurant upgrades to enhance the guest experience [12][13] - Refranchising efforts are underway to engage existing and potential franchisees, with plans to provide further details in the November earnings call [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges faced in the current operating environment but expresses confidence in the First Choice Plan to drive long-term success [3][30] - The company does not expect traffic trends to improve overnight but is laying the foundation for sustainable growth through strategic initiatives [10][30] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $24.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and has repaid approximately $20 million of debt, resulting in a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately two times [20] - Capital expenditures are expected to be on the higher end of prior guidance at approximately $30 million as investments are made to implement the First Choice Plan [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the journey to labor efficiency and its impact on margins? - Management noted that operators have become more disciplined in managing labor, leading to consistent improvements in efficiency, with expectations of a 1% drag on restaurant level profitability from the Big Yum initiative [35][39] Question: What actions are being taken to enhance guest experience in the near term? - A holistic approach is being taken, including investments in facilities, technology improvements, and traffic-driving initiatives [48][50] Question: How are franchisees responding to current promotions and changes? - Franchisees are supportive of the initiatives and are participating in promotions, with management noting that franchisees generally operate at better margins than company-operated locations [63][77] Question: What is the outlook for same-store sales in the second half of the year? - Management indicated a directional expectation of a 3% decline in Q3 and a potentially larger decline in Q4 due to tougher comparisons [66] Question: What is the expected impact of commodity costs on profitability? - Management highlighted that rising commodity costs, particularly for ground beef and poultry, are expected to create a $2 million to $3 million headwind in the second half of the year [69] Question: What are the company's targets for debt reduction and refinancing? - Management stated that the optimal debt level will depend on refinancing discussions, with an objective to complete refinancing in 2026 [71][72]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the second quarter of 2025 were $283.7 million, a decrease of $16.5 million compared to the same period in 2024 [4][7] - Comparable restaurant revenue decreased by 3.2%, but increased by 0.4% year-to-date when excluding deferred loyalty revenue [7][8] - Net income for the second quarter was $4.0 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $9.5 million in the previous year [4][7] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 64% to $22.4 million for the second quarter, and by 86% to $50.3 million year-to-date [4][7] Operational Highlights - The company has initiated its First Choice plan, which has already shown positive results, particularly with the Big YUMMM Burger Deal launched in July [3] - Restaurant-level operating profit margin improved to 14.5% in the second quarter, up from 11.8% in the same period last year [4][27] - The company reduced its outstanding borrowings under its credit facility by $20.3 million, bringing total borrowings to $169.2 million as of July 13, 2025 [5] Guidance and Outlook - The company anticipates total revenues for fiscal 2025 to be between $1.21 billion and $1.23 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $60 million and $65 million [8] - Comparable restaurant sales are expected to decline approximately 3% to 4% for the remainder of fiscal 2025 [8] Restaurant Unit Data - As of July 13, 2025, the total number of restaurants was 487, down from 503 a year earlier, with 4 company-owned locations closed during the quarter [19]

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 13, following a significant earnings surprise of 133.3% in the last quarter [1] Group 1: Q2 Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates a loss of 25 cents per share, compared to an adjusted loss of 48 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue estimates are projected at $285.2 million, reflecting a 5% decline from the previous year's figure [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The company's revenue is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions and low consumer traffic growth, which has been consistent over recent months [3] - Despite these challenges, Red Robin has shown growth in comparable restaurant revenue and unit-level profitability in the last two quarters, with expectations of a 7.5% year-over-year increase in comparable restaurant revenues [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, particularly by reducing labor costs, which is expected to support its performance [4] - Red Robin's managing partner program and emphasis on digital projects and menu innovation are likely to contribute positively to its financial results [5] Group 4: Customer Satisfaction and Revenue Predictions - Investments in hospitality and food quality over the past two years have led to long-term increases in customer satisfaction, which is reflected in consistently high satisfaction ratings [6] - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, restaurant revenues are predicted to decrease by 3% year-over-year to $285.5 million [6] Group 5: Margins and Earnings Predictions - The bottom line is expected to decline year-over-year due to increased costs from new tariffs, with total costs of sales projected to rise by 5.2% to $73.1 million [7] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to grow by 10.7% year-over-year to $15.1 million, with an increase in the Adjusted EBITDA margin by 70 basis points to 5.2% [8] Group 6: Earnings Prediction Model - The model indicates a potential earnings beat for Red Robin, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +67.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [9][10] - The anticipated loss of 25 cents per share represents a 48% year-over-year decline, attributed to softer consumer demand and macro uncertainties [9]

Group 1 - The upcoming report from Red Robin (RRGB) is expected to show a quarterly loss of -$0.25 per share, which is an increase of 47.9% compared to the same period last year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $285.22 million, indicating a decline of 5% year over year [1] - There has been a 4.3% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that 'Revenues - Restaurant revenue' will be $280.07 million, a decrease of 4.9% from the prior-year quarter [5] - The projected 'Number of restaurants - Franchised' is expected to reach 90, down from 92 in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Number of restaurants - Total' is forecasted to be 486, compared to 503 a year ago [5] Group 3 - The forecast for 'Number of restaurants - Company-owned' is 397, down from 411 in the previous year [6] - Red Robin shares have decreased by 5.5% in the past month, contrasting with a +1.9% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6] - With a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), Red Robin is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [6]

Group 1 - The article reflects on the turnaround story of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and their 'North Star' plan, indicating a significant focus on the company's strategic initiatives [1] - It has been almost eight months since the initial analysis of Red Robin's performance and strategic direction, suggesting ongoing interest in the company's developments [1] Group 2 - No specific financial data or performance metrics are provided in the excerpts, limiting the analysis of the company's current financial status or market position [1][2]

Core Insights - Red Robin introduces the Big Yummm Burger Deal, priced at $9.99, offering a value meal that includes a double patty burger, bottomless side, and beverage, aiming to attract diners looking for quality without high costs [1][3] - The deal features the Red's Double Tavern Burger, which includes two hand-smashed patties, Red's Secret Tavern Sauce™, American cheese, lettuce, and tomato on a sesame bun, along with a choice of bottomless sides and beverages [1][2] - The promotion is available at participating locations nationwide, starting this week, and is valid for dine-in only for a limited time [3][4] Company Overview - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant chain founded in 1969, known for its variety of burgers and a playful dining atmosphere [5] - The company operates through its subsidiary, Red Robin International, Inc., and offers online ordering for to-go, delivery, and catering services [5] - Red Robin aims to create memorable dining experiences centered around burgers and fun, serving a diverse menu that includes salads, appetizers, desserts, and signature beverages [5]

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Incorporated (RRGB) - **Date of Call**: July 15, 2025 - **Key Speaker**: Dave Fies, President and CEO Core Industry Insights - **Industry**: Casual Dining - **Current Trends**: The casual dining sector has been experiencing traffic declines over the past several years, necessitating a strategic shift in marketing and customer engagement efforts [7][18]. Key Points and Arguments First Choice Plan - **Objective**: To position Red Robin for long-term success and strengthen its financial foundation [4][16]. - **Pillars of the Plan**: 1. **Hold Serve**: Build on the foundations established under the North Star plan, focusing on food quality and hospitality [4][6]. 2. **Drive Traffic**: Increase guest engagement and visitation through creative marketing strategies [4][7]. 3. **Find Money**: Manage expenses and assets to reduce debt and allow for critical investments [4][10]. 4. **Fix Restaurants**: Invest in physical locations to enhance the dining experience [4][14]. 5. **Win Together**: Foster a high-performance culture to attract and retain top talent [4][15]. Financial Performance - **Second Quarter Expectations**: Comparable restaurant sales are expected to decrease by approximately 4%, slightly below previous expectations of a 3% decrease [18]. - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Expected to exceed prior expectations of $13 million to $16 million, indicating positive momentum from the managing partner program [19]. Marketing Initiatives - **Big Yum! Deal**: Launching a promotional offer to drive traffic, featuring a Red's Double Tavern burger, a bottomless side, and a beverage for $9.99 [8][22]. - **Targeted Marketing Plan**: A more sophisticated marketing strategy is planned for implementation by the end of 2025, focusing on data analytics to understand guest preferences [9][56]. Cost Management - **G&A Savings**: Estimated annual reduction of approximately $10 million in general and administrative expenses [12][48]. - **Labor Efficiency**: Labor costs are expected to improve, with a target of being below 37% in Q2 [28][29]. Refranchising Strategy - **Tactical Refranchising**: Aimed at generating proceeds to reduce debt and reinvest in the business, with no material impact expected in 2025 [12][19]. - **Franchisee Opportunities**: Current franchisees may expand their holdings, while the majority of restaurants will remain company-owned [13][51]. Restaurant Improvements - **Physical Upgrades**: Initial investments will address deferred maintenance, with potential for broader renovations in the future [14][62]. - **Guest Experience Focus**: Emphasis on creating a guest-focused culture to enhance the overall dining experience [38][39]. Additional Important Insights - **Competitive Environment**: The company acknowledges the need to remain competitive in pricing while avoiding excessive discounting that could dilute brand value [25][65]. - **Ownership Mindset**: The Managing Partner Program has fostered a culture of accountability and performance among restaurant operators, contributing to improved profitability [34][35]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: The management expresses confidence in the First Choice Plan and its ability to drive sustainable growth and shareholder value, with updates expected in future earnings calls [17][68].

[Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Announces "First Choice" Plan and Updated Q2 Outlook](index=1&type=section&id=Red%20Robin%20Gourmet%20Burgers%2C%20Inc.%20Announces%20%22First%20Choice%22%20Plan%20and%20Updated%20Q2%20Outlook) The company announces its "First Choice" strategic plan and provides an updated financial outlook for Q2 2025 [Introduction and "First Choice" Plan Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Introduction%20and%20%22First%20Choice%22%20Plan%20Overview) The company introduces its "First Choice" plan to drive long-term value through strategic initiatives - The "First Choice" plan is an integrated strategy to make Red Robin the top choice for guests, team members, and investors[3](index=3&type=chunk) - The plan aims to generate resources to strengthen the balance sheet, fund marketing and technology investments, and consistently deliver value and a great guest experience[3](index=3&type=chunk) - The expected outcomes are **sustainable guest count growth, increased profitability, and generation of free cash flow**[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Core Components of the "First Choice" Plan](index=1&type=section&id=Core%20Components%20of%20the%20%22First%20Choice%22%20Plan) The plan is built on five pillars: operations, traffic, cost management, restaurant upgrades, and culture - **Hold Serve:** Maintain operational efficiencies, food quality, and expense management established under the North Star Plan[5](index=5&type=chunk)[6](index=6&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - **Drive Traffic:** Implement a new marketing plan to inspire new and returning guests and deliver consistent value[7](index=7&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Find Money:** Reduce system-wide expenses, tactically refranchise select restaurants, and lower debt to fund key initiatives[8](index=8&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Fix Restaurants:** Address deferred maintenance, improve guest-facing surroundings, and invest in new technology[9](index=9&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Win Together:** Cultivate a guest-centric, high-performance culture that attracts, retains, and develops top industry talent[9](index=9&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Updated Second Quarter 2025 Financial Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=Updated%20Second%20Quarter%202025%20Financial%20Outlook) The company updates its Q2 2025 outlook, forecasting lower sales but higher Adjusted EBITDA Q2 2025 Financial Outlook Update | Metric | Previous Outlook | Updated Outlook | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Comparable Restaurant Sales | Decrease of ~3% | Decrease of ~4% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $13M - $16M | > $16M | - **Profitability improvements in the first half of 2025 have already surpassed the full-year 2024 results**, driven by operational excellence and cost-saving initiatives[12](index=12&type=chunk) - The improved financial position will enable accelerated investments in initiatives aimed at driving guest traffic[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Investor Conference Call and Webcast](index=3&type=section&id=Investor%20Conference%20Call%20and%20Webcast) An investor call is scheduled for July 15th to discuss the new plan and updated financial outlook - An investor conference call is scheduled for **July 15th at 8:30 a.m. ET** to discuss the new strategic plan and financial expectations[13](index=13&type=chunk) - A replay of the call will be available by phone until Tuesday, July 22, 2025, and the webcast will be archived on the company's investor relations website[14](index=14&type=chunk)[15](index=15&type=chunk) [About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.](index=3&type=section&id=About%20Red%20Robin%20Gourmet%20Burgers%2C%20Inc.) The company is a casual dining chain with nearly 500 locations known for its gourmet burgers - Red Robin is a casual dining chain with **nearly 500 restaurants** in the U.S. and Canada, operating under both company-owned and franchise models[16](index=16&type=chunk) - The menu features a wide array of burgers, appetizers, entrees, and desserts, with Donatos® pizza available at some locations[16](index=16&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Forward-Looking%20Statements) The report contains forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties - The document contains forward-looking statements concerning the "First Choice" plan and financial outlook, which are **not guarantees of future performance**[17](index=17&type=chunk) - A wide range of risks could impact actual results, including the ability to implement the plan, economic conditions, competition, capital availability, IT system failures, and supply chain disruptions[18](index=18&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. has announced its "First Choice" plan aimed at enhancing long-term shareholder value and provided an updated financial outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: First Choice Plan - The "First Choice" plan is designed to make Red Robin the preferred choice for guests, team members, and investors through coordinated initiatives [2][3]. - Key components of the plan include protecting the foundations of the previous North Star Plan, driving traffic through creative engagement, managing expenses to reduce debt, investing in restaurant facilities, and fostering a high-performance work environment [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - The company expects second quarter comparable restaurant sales to decrease by approximately 4%, slightly worse than the previous expectation of a 3% decrease [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to exceed prior expectations of $13 million to $16 million, indicating improved profitability [5][6]. - The first half of 2025 is projected to show Adjusted EBITDA surpassing the full-year results of 2024, reflecting operational excellence and cost efficiency [6]. Group 3: Investor Communication - An investor conference call is scheduled for July 15, 2025, to discuss the "First Choice" plan and updated financial expectations [7]. - The call will be accessible via phone and will also be webcast live, with a replay available shortly after the call [8].