Core Viewpoint - Red Robin (RRGB) has shown an 8.1% increase in stock price over the past four weeks, with a mean price target of $9.38 indicating a potential upside of 49.1% from the current price of $6.29 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $3.94, where the lowest estimate is $3.50 (44.4% decline) and the highest is $12.00 (90.8% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets suggests a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [9] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about RRGB's earnings prospects, as indicated by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 14.5%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] - RRGB holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Targets - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the stock's potential gain, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Group 1 - Red Robin (RRGB) closed at $5.00, with a 57.7% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $9.38 suggests an 87.6% upside potential [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $3.50 to a high of $12.00, with a standard deviation of $3.94, indicating variability in analyst estimates [2] - Analysts show a consensus that RRGB will report better earnings than previously estimated, which supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RRGB has increased by 7.6% due to one upward revision in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [12] - RRGB holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the extent of gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Group 1 - Momentum investing is characterized by the strategy of "buying high and selling higher," contrasting with traditional methods of "buying low and selling high" [1] - Identifying the right entry point for momentum stocks can be challenging, as they may lose momentum if their valuations exceed future growth potential [1] - A safer investment approach involves targeting bargain stocks that exhibit recent price momentum, utilizing tools like the Zacks Momentum Style Score [2] Group 2 - Red Robin (RRGB) has shown significant price movement, with a 57.7% increase over the past four weeks, indicating strong investor interest [3] - RRGB has also gained 40.5% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its ability to maintain momentum over a longer period [4] - The stock has a beta of 2.39, suggesting it moves 139% more than the market, indicating fast-paced momentum [4] Group 3 - RRGB holds a Momentum Score of B, suggesting it is an opportune time to invest in the stock to capitalize on its momentum [5] - The stock has received a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to upward revisions in earnings estimates, which typically attract more investor interest [6] - RRGB is currently trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.07, indicating it is undervalued at 7 cents for each dollar of sales [6] Group 4 - RRGB appears to have significant potential for further price appreciation, supported by its fast-paced momentum characteristics [7] - There are additional stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, suggesting further investment opportunities [7] - Zacks offers over 45 Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles, providing various strategies to identify winning stocks [8]

Company Overview - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant chain founded in 1969, operating under the trade name Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and Brews [2] - The company serves a variety of gourmet burgers, salads, appetizers, entrees, desserts, signature beverages, and Donatos® pizza at select locations [2] - Red Robin operates nearly 500 locations in the United States and Canada, including those under franchise agreements [2] Recent Developments - The company will host meetings with institutional investors at the 15th Annual Jefferies Consumer Conference on June 17-18, 2025, in Nantucket, MA [1]

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers experienced a significant stock surge of nearly 100% in a single day following the release of its first-quarter 2025 earnings, indicating investor enthusiasm for the company's ongoing turnaround efforts [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $1.2 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reaching $0.19, surpassing analyst expectations of a loss of approximately $0.57 [4]. - Total revenues increased to $392.4 million, up $3.8 million from the same quarter last year [4]. - Comparable restaurant revenue grew by 3.1%, driven by a 6.8% rise in net menu prices [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $27.9 million, marking a 108.2% increase from the previous year [4]. - The Restaurant Level Operating Profit margin improved to 14.3% from 11.0% in the first quarter of 2024 [4]. Strategic Developments - David Pace was appointed as President and CEO in April 2025, bringing continuity to the company's turnaround plan [5]. - The new CEO has outlined four main strategic goals focused on improving operations, increasing customer visits, strengthening finances, and upgrading restaurant environments [6][10]. - A significant marketing effort aims to address declining guest visits, with 22% of customer visits in Q1 coming from lapsed customers returning to the brand [8][9]. Market Outlook - Analysts have set a 12-month stock price forecast of $13.38, indicating a potential upside of 105.77% from the current price of $6.50 [7]. - The average analyst rating for Red Robin is a Buy, suggesting confidence in the company's growth potential [9].

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) has been facing significant financial challenges, with over six years of net losses impacting its balance sheet [1] Financial Performance - The company has experienced a continuous decline in profitability, leading to a weakened financial position [1] Investment Perspective - The current situation presents potential investment opportunities, but the ongoing losses and balance sheet erosion raise concerns about the company's future viability [1]

Group 1 - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is undergoing efforts to turn the business around after experiencing turbulent years, leading to a buy rating in January 2024 [1] - The analysis is based on value investing principles, an owner's mindset, and a long-term investment horizon [1] - The analyst does not engage in writing sell articles or recommending shorting [1] Group 2 - There are no current stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies, nor plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company [2] - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [3]

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing year-over-year growth in both metrics [1][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter were 19 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 57 cents, compared to an adjusted loss of 73 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Quarterly revenues reached $392.4 million, exceeding the consensus mark of $387 million, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year [5]. - Comparable restaurant revenues increased by 3.1% year-over-year, a significant improvement from the 6.5% decline reported in the prior-year quarter [5]. Operational Metrics - The restaurant-level operating profit margin was 14.3%, up from 11% in the prior-year quarter, exceeding the projected margin of 12.7% [6]. - Restaurant labor costs decreased to $143.1 million from $149 million in the prior-year quarter, while other operating costs slightly increased to $67.5 million from $66.5 million [6][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.9 million, compared to $13.4 million in the prior-year quarter, surpassing the estimate of $23.2 million [7]. Financial Position - As of April 20, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $24.2 million, down from $30.7 million as of December 29, 2024. Long-term debt decreased to $164.8 million from $181.6 million during the same period [8]. Future Guidance - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company anticipates a decline of about 3% in comparable restaurant sales, influenced by a 240 basis point headwind from the non-recurrence of a 2024 benefit related to the loyalty program [9]. - Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 are now expected to range between $1.21 billion and $1.23 billion, slightly lower than the initial projection [10]. - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 is anticipated to be between $60 million and $65 million, with capital expenditures estimated at approximately $30 million [10].

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers has successfully turned a profit in Q1 of FY2025, marking its first quarterly profit since 2019, despite facing challenges such as tariff pressures and a downward revision of its revenue guidance for FY2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a GAAP net profit of $1.2 million in Q1 FY2025, a significant improvement from a net loss of $9.5 million in the same period last year [1][3]. - Adjusted EBITDA under NON-GAAP standards doubled compared to the previous year, reaching $27.9 million, up from $13.4 million [1]. - Total sales increased by 1% year-over-year to $392.35 million, exceeding market expectations [1]. Operational Insights - The company benefited from a 6.8% net menu price increase and significantly lower labor costs, which contributed to an adjusted earnings per share of $0.20, compared to a loss of $0.73 in the prior year [1]. - The management has revised its FY2025 revenue guidance down to a range of $1.21 billion to $1.23 billion, from a previous estimate of $1.225 billion to $1.25 billion [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Red Robin is focused on its "North Star" performance revival plan, which emphasizes ingredient upgrades, service experience, and cost control [2]. - The CEO, David Pace, highlighted the ongoing journey of brand revival and the significant market opportunities ahead [1].

Group 1 - Red Robin reported revenue of $392.35 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.28% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $387.4 million [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.19, a significant improvement from -$0.80 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +133.33% compared to the consensus estimate of -$0.57 [1] - Over the past month, Red Robin's shares have returned +14.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +6.7% change, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] Group 2 - The total number of Red Robin restaurants is 491, slightly below the average estimate of 497 based on three analysts [4] - Comparable restaurant revenue showed a year-over-year change of 3.1%, matching the average estimate from three analysts [4] - Restaurant revenue was reported at $385.81 million, exceeding the three-analyst average estimate of $376.61 million, with a year-over-year change of +1.9% [4]