Core Insights - Ryanair Holdings plc reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings per share (EPS) of 29 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents, and showing year-over-year improvement [1] - Revenues reached $3.15 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.94 billion, driven by strong Christmas/New Year bookings [2] - Profit after tax increased significantly to €149 million from €15 million in the same quarter last year [2] Financial Performance - Traffic grew by 9% year over year, despite Boeing delivery delays, with average fares increasing by 1% [2][3] - Load factor remained stable at 92%, indicating consistent passenger demand [3] - Operating costs rose by 8% year over year to €2.93 billion, attributed to higher staff and other costs, partially offset by fuel hedge savings [3] Shareholder Returns - Ryanair has completed over 50% of its €800 million buyback program, expected to be completed by mid-2025, returning nearly €9 billion to shareholders since 2008 [4] - An interim dividend of €0.223 per share is scheduled for payment on February 26, 2025 [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates fiscal 2025 traffic to reach nearly 200 million passengers, an increase from the previous estimate of 198-200 million passengers [5] Market Position - Ryanair currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has seen a 16% increase in share price over the past six months, compared to the industry’s 26.7% rise [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a Q3 profit after tax of EUR149 million, with a traffic growth of 9% to 45 million passengers, although profits for the nine months were 12% lower than the previous year at EUR1.94 billion compared to EUR2.19 billion, attributed to an 8% decrease in airfares [4][6][16] - Revenue per passenger increased by 1%, with average fares and ancillary revenue also up by 1% [5][6] - Ancillary revenues rose by 10% to EUR1.04 billion in Q3, while operating costs increased by 8% to EUR2.93 billion due to traffic growth [6][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 9% traffic growth despite Boeing aircraft delivery delays, with ancillary revenues showing a significant increase [5][6] - The integration of approved OTA partnerships is progressing well, contributing positively to revenue streams [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has revised its FY 2026 traffic target down to 206 million passengers, reflecting a 3% growth, due to ongoing Boeing delivery delays [9][16] - The company anticipates that European short-haul capacity will remain constrained in summer 2025, benefiting forward bookings and pricing [10][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reallocate scarce capacity growth to regions and airports that are incentivizing traffic growth, particularly in Poland, Spain, Sweden, and regional Italy [10] - The company is actively reviewing ownership and control restrictions in light of EU shareholding trends, expecting to reach the 50% threshold in early 2025 [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding future traffic growth, despite the current constraints and external risks such as Boeing delivery delays and geopolitical conflicts [16] - The company is guiding a full-year 2025 profit after tax in the range of EUR1.55 billion to EUR1.61 billion, contingent on avoiding adverse developments [16] Other Important Information - The company has completed over 60% of its EUR800 million share buyback program and expects to finish it by mid-2025 [5][7] - The company is well-hedged for fuel costs, with over 75% hedged at approximately $77 per barrel [18] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Can you discuss the type of growth for summer and the supply chain issues? - Management noted that while they expect reasonable growth in Q1, visibility into Q2 is limited, and they are frustrated by Boeing's delivery delays impacting growth targets [25][29] Question: What is the update on OTA partnerships and their impact on bookings? - Management confirmed that agreements with over 90% of major OTAs are in place, leading to strong forward bookings at higher average fares [47][48] Question: What are the implications of slower growth on unit costs? - Management indicated that slower growth should not constrain costs significantly, as they have adjusted crew levels in anticipation of aircraft deliveries [62][64] Question: How does the company view capacity constraints in Europe? - Management believes that while there may be some modest capacity growth, it is not occurring in markets where the company is expanding, allowing them to capture market share [72][74] Question: What are the expectations for CapEx given revised delivery outlooks? - Management expects CapEx for FY 2025 to be around EUR1.7 billion to EUR1.8 billion, with adjustments based on aircraft delivery timelines [129][131]

Core Insights - Ryanair reported a Q3 profit after tax of EUR149 million, driven by a 9% increase in traffic to 45 million passengers and slightly higher fares [3][4] - For the nine-month period, profits totaled EUR1.94 billion, which is 12% lower than the previous year's profit of EUR2.19 billion, attributed to an 8% decrease in airfares [3] Q3 Highlights - Traffic growth of 9% to 45 million passengers was achieved despite ongoing Boeing aircraft delivery delays [4] - The company experienced stronger bookings during the Christmas and New Year period at marginally better fares than anticipated [3]

Q3 Results – Jan 2025 Europe's Lowest Cost Air line 2 2 Lowest fare/lowest cost EU airline No. 1, Traffic: c.200m (+9%) No. 1, OTP & reliability No. 1 Large Cap. ESG airline – Sustainalytics 300 MAX-10 order – Decade of Growth Fin. strength + lowest cost = L.T. winner Europe's No. 1 Cover age & Choice 3 Europe's Lowest Costs – Gap W idens | € per pax | RYA | (ii) WIZ | EZJ | LUV | IAG | LUF | AFKLM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Staff/Efficiency | 8 | 8 | 14 | 75 | 47 | 44 | 92 | | Ai ...

Financial Performance - Ryanair reported a stronger-than-expected after-tax profit of 149 million euros ($155 8 million) for the fiscal third quarter ending December 2024, significantly surpassing the anticipated 60 million euros [2] - The company attributed the higher profit to marginally increased fares driven by stronger Christmas and New Year bookings [2] Passenger Traffic - Ryanair's passenger traffic grew by 9% to 45 million passengers in the fiscal third quarter despite prolonged Boeing delivery delays [2] - The company revised its full-year passenger traffic target for the fiscal year ending March 2026 downward to 206 million passengers from an earlier target of 210 million due to insufficient aircraft deliveries from Boeing [3] - This follows a previous revision in November 2024, where the target was reduced from 215 million passengers [3] Boeing Delivery Delays - Ryanair cited ongoing delays in Boeing's 737 production, which is recovering from a strike in late 2024, as a key factor impacting its ability to meet its original passenger traffic growth targets [3]

Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) Performance - Ryanair reported 13 6 million passengers in December 2024, an 8% year-over-year increase and higher than November's 13 million [1] - The load factor improved to 92% in December 2024 from 91% in the same period last year, with 77,380 flights operated, up from 73,750 in November [2] - Traffic grew 9% year-over-year in fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025, despite Boeing delivery delays [3] - Ryanair expects traffic to grow 8% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, assuming no worsening of Boeing delivery delays [4] Ryanair's Market Performance - Ryanair shares declined 12 5% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Airline industry's 36 1% growth [5] Other Airline Picks - Southwest Airlines (LUV) has an expected earnings growth rate of 105% for 2025, with a 5 3% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings in the past 60 days [7][8] - SkyWest (SKYW) has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 79 1% in the trailing four quarters and a 5 3% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share in the past 60 days [9][10]

[Ryanair Holdings plc Transaction in own shares](index=1&type=section&id=Ryanair%20Holdings%20plc%20Transaction%20in%20own%20shares) Ryanair Holdings plc conducted a share repurchase on December 30, 2024, for cancellation, under its existing buy-back program [Share Repurchase Details](index=1&type=section&id=Share%20Repurchase%20Details) Ryanair Holdings plc repurchased ordinary shares and ADSs on December 30, 2024, for cancellation, detailing transaction volumes and prices - On Monday, December 30, 2024, the company purchased a total of **27,911** ordinary shares and **79,836** shares underlying American Depositary Shares for cancellation[5](index=5&type=chunk) Share Repurchase Price Details (December 30, 2024) | Metric | Per Ordinary Share | Per Ordinary Share underlying ADS | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Volume weighted average price** | €19.0313 | US$21.9074 | | **Highest price paid** | €19.070 | US$22.030 | | **Lowest price paid** | €19.010 | US$21.695 | [Program Context](index=2&type=section&id=Program%20Context) The share purchases are part of the company's existing buy-back program, announced August 27, 2024, with all acquired shares designated for cancellation - The share purchases are part of the company's existing share buy-back programme announced on August 27, 2024[8](index=8&type=chunk) - All shares purchased under this program are designated for cancellation[8](index=8&type=chunk) - This announcement complies with Article 5(1)(b) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014[8](index=8&type=chunk)

Aerospace and Defense Industry Analysis - The Aerospace Forum is a leading investment research service focused on the aerospace, defense, and airline industries, offering access to evoX Data Analytics, an in-house developed data analytics platform [1] - Low-cost carriers in Europe are considered among the most attractive airline investment opportunities, with Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) being highlighted as a buy-rated stock in May 2024 [1] - The Aerospace Forum aims to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense, and airline sectors, leveraging data-driven analysis and industry expertise [1] Investment Research and Data Analytics - The Aerospace Forum provides direct access to data analytics monitors, enabling investors to make informed decisions based on real-time data and analysis [1] - The service offers context to industry developments, explaining how they might impact investment theses and growth prospects [1]

Group 1 - Ryanair's shares have increased by 0.4% over the past four weeks, closing at $44.12, with a mean price target of $56.50 indicating a potential upside of 28.1% [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $52 to a high of $62, with a standard deviation of $4.20, suggesting a potential increase of 17.9% to 40.5% from the current price [2] - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price movements [9][10] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 0.1% over the past month, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [10] - Ryanair holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [11] - While consensus price targets may not be reliable for predicting exact gains, they can provide a directional guide for price movement [12]

Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) has been benefiting from upbeat passenger volumes, fleet modernization techniquesand consistent shareholder-friendly initiatives. The positive sentiment surrounding RYAAY stock is evident from the fact that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 earnings has been revised upward in the past 90 days.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings per share indicates more than 100% growth from the respective 2023 ...