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Ryanair: Cash In On The Overreaction
Seeking Alpha· 2024-07-23 14:24
Core Insights - Ryanair's Q1 earnings report revealed a significant decline in net income, dropping to €360 million from €663 million year-over-year, leading to a market reaction that saw its stock lose over 15% of its value on the release day [2][5][36] - The company experienced a 10% increase in customer volume but a 1% decrease in load factor, with average fare rates decreasing by 15%, contributing to a rounded revenue decrease of 1% [8][9][10] - Operating expenses rose by 11% to €3.26 billion, with notable increases in fuel costs (up 6% to €1.42 billion) and staff costs (up 25% to €450 million) [14][16][18] Financial Performance - Total operating revenues for Q1 were €3.63 billion, slightly down from €3.65 billion the previous year [9] - Operating profit fell by 49% to €365.7 million, while profit before tax decreased by 46% to €400.8 million [4][9] - Other income, including net finance income, increased by 55% to €28.1 million, partially offsetting the decline in operating profit [4] Operational Factors - Ryanair's operational metrics showed a mixed performance, with a 10% increase in customers but a decrease in load factor, indicating fewer seats sold compared to the previous year [8][10] - The company acknowledged that summer fare rates are likely to settle lower than the previous year due to competitive pressures and structural concerns from delayed aircraft deliveries from Boeing [2][36] Cost Structure - Significant increases in operating costs were noted, particularly in staff costs and depreciation, which rose by 25% and 14% respectively [16][18] - Marketing expenses also increased by 9% to €220 million, reflecting the competitive nature of the low-cost airline market [19] Valuation and Market Outlook - Ryanair's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.86, which is below the sector median of 22.17, indicating potential undervaluation [28] - The company's price-to-sales ratio of 0.95 is favorable compared to its peers, suggesting a solid growth outlook despite recent earnings challenges [29] Technical Analysis - The relative strength index (RSI) for Ryanair is at 22.31, indicating that the stock is theoretically oversold, which may present a buying opportunity [32] - The stock's performance has been negatively impacted by the recent earnings report, but there is potential for recovery as ancillary revenue growth complements its low-cost fare structure [36]
Ryanair: Softer Pricing Trends But A Decade Of Growth Ahead
Seeking Alpha· 2024-07-23 05:27
Financial Performance - Q1 2025 started slowly for Ryanair, with profits declining partly due to the absence of the Easter effect, which impacted previous results [2] - Ryanair's sales declined by 1% compared to last year, with ancillary top-line sales reaching €1.30 billion (approximately €23.40 per passenger) [2] - The company's net cash increased to €1.74 billion at June's end, a €400 million increase compared to March's end, driven by €500 million in CAPEX and share buybacks [2] - Ryanair reported core EBIT of €365 million, lower than the forecasted €540 million, with top-line sales of €3.6 billion compared to the projected €3.8 billion [6] - Adjusted net income reached €1.45 billion with an EPS of €1.55, despite a 49% decline in Q1 EBIT [6] Operational Updates - Ryanair received 10 B737-8200 planes in Q1, reducing fuel consumption by 16% and offering 4% more seats [2] - The company opened five new bases with over 200 new routes for the summer of 2024, expanding its EU footprint [2] - Ryanair expects traffic growth of 8% to 200 million passengers for the full year, assuming no further delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries [4] - The company is working with Boeing to improve quality and deliveries, with 156 B737 Gamechangers in the fleet as of June 30 [12] - Ryanair extended its fuel hedges to 75% for FY25, locking in potential savings of over €450 million [6] Market and Industry Trends - EU short-haul capacity remains constrained due to significant maintenance from P&W engine repairs and airline delivery backlogs [2] - Ryanair's Gamechanger Strategy is expected to offer a decade of low-fare profitable growth, despite capacity constraints [2] - Average fares are down by 15%, signaling bigger-than-expected weakness for European airlines this summer [4] - The company faces competition from Wizz and EasyJet, along with potential delays in B737 MAX aircraft deliveries [8] - Consumer demand is softening, with lower fares and increased fare sales by low-cost carriers [10] Strategic Initiatives - Ryanair is progressing with its share buyback program, with room for an additional €350 million repurchase [2] - The company has completed over 50% of its €700 million share buyback program [12] - Ryanair is focusing on the delivery of the next 50 B-8200s before S.25, despite Boeing delays [13] - The company's balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, supported by dividend payments and share repurchases [2] Valuation and Outlook - Ryanair's stock price is down by approximately 17% following the Q1 2025 update [10] - The company's valuation aligns with its historical average on a FWD P/E, with a target of €15.5 per share [14] - Despite a consumer slowdown, Ryanair's medium-term outlook remains optimistic, supported by its unique cost basis and solid balance sheet [14] - The company's load factor was 94%, one basis point lower than last year's results [6] - Ryanair's fuel savings partially offset the earnings decline projection from lower fares expected in Q2 [6]
Ryanair(RYAAY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-07-22 15:56
Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:RYAAY) Q1 2025 Results Conference Call July 22, 2024 5:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Furlong - Davy Jarrod Castle - UBS Alex Irving - Bernstein Harry Gowers - JPMorgan Dudley Shanley - Goodbody Jaime Rowbotham - Deutsche Bank James Hollins - BNP Paribas Sathish Sivakumar - Citi Savanthi Syth - Raymond James Duane Pfennigwerth - Evercore ISI Muneeba Kayani - Bank of America Gerald Khoo - Liberum Alex Paterson - Peel Hunt Johannes Braun - Stifel Michael OÂ'Leary We reporte ...
Airline Stock Plummets Alongside Profits
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2024-07-22 15:13
Now trading at its lowest levels since November, RYAAY is down 27.9% since the start of the year. The 50-day moving average has also been a firm line of pressure since April, as the stock fell from its April 8 record high of $150.73. Analysts have yet to chime in on the earnings event, though there is plenty of room for pessimism. Of the 10 brokerages in coverage, six carry a "buy" or better rating, and four a tepid "hold," with no negative ratings. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $151.25 is a ...
Ryanair Plunges After Projecting 'Materially Lower' Summer Fares
Investopedia· 2024-07-22 14:52
Core Insights - Ryanair reported a first-quarter profit of 360 million euros ($391.6 million), which is nearly a 50% decline compared to EUR663 million in the same quarter last year [4][5] - Average fares decreased by 15% year-over-year to EUR41.93, although this was partially offset by a 10% increase in customer numbers to 55.5 million [4][5] - The company anticipates that summer fares will be "materially lower than last summer," a shift from previous expectations of fares being "flat to modestly up" [5][6] Financial Performance - First-quarter profit was reported at 360 million euros ($391.6 million), down from EUR663 million in the previous year [4][5] - Average fares fell by 15% year-over-year to EUR41.93 [4] - Customer numbers increased by 10% to 55.5 million [4] Market Reaction - Ryanair's American depositary receipts (ADRs) fell more than 17% to $94.12, marking a nearly 30% decline in 2024 [2][5] Operational Challenges - The company experienced significant deterioration in European air traffic control capacity in the last 10 days of June, leading to multiple flight delays and cancellations, particularly affecting morning flights [5]
Why Is Ryanair (RYAAY) Stock Down 14% Today?
Investor Place· 2024-07-22 12:56
Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) stock is dropping on Monday after the company provided investors with its earnings results for its fiscal first quarter of 2025. The company's negative earnings report for fiscal Q1 also includes profits of 360 million euros. To put that in perspective, the company reported a profit of 662.9 million euros in the same period of the year prior. "In the last 10 days of June we suffered a significant deterioration in European ATC capacity which caused multiple flight delays and cancellati ...
Ryanair shares tumble 11% as budget airline reports 46% fall in quarterly profit, sees lower fares
CNBC· 2024-07-22 07:36
At 8:35 a.m. London time, Ryanair shares were down by 11.4%. Ryanair cited weaker-than-anticipated fares and the Easter season falling into the previous quarter as reasons for the drop in profit. In a statement, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary said fares were also now expected to be lower than expected over the next three months. This is a developing story. Please refresh for updates. The budget airline said that profit after tax in the three months to the end of June — Ryanair's first quarter — came in a ...
Ryanair (RYAAY) Posts Impressive June 2024 Traffic Numbers
ZACKS· 2024-07-02 16:55
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) reported solid traffic numbers for June 2024, driven by upbeat air-travel demand. Ryanair continues to benefit from improved traffic growth. Traffic increased 9% in fiscal 2024. Management expects fiscal 2025 traffic to grow 8%, subject to Boeing deliveries returning to contracted levels before the year-end. SKYW flaunts a VGM Score of A and has a market capitalization of $3.28 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW's 2024 earnings per share has moved up 6.9% in the past 90 ...
Ryanair: Summer Is Coming With Softer Price
Seeking Alpha· 2024-06-28 08:31
Cristi Croitoru 十 233 apts., 37 countries V Europe's No. 1 Coverage & Choice + 600 aircraft S.24 – 350 on order ✈ 300m pax p.a. FY34 Source: Ryanair Fiscal Year 2024 Results Ryanair Rating Update 1. (A softer pricing environment). During the Fiscal Year 2024 results conference call, by CEO Michael O'Leary's own admission, the company is cautiously optimistic that peak summer 2024 fares will likely be flat to modestly ahead compared to last summer. This happened after two consecutive years of very material f ...
Ryanair(RYAAY) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2024-06-27 11:30
Financial Performance - Ryanair Group reported FY24 PAT of €1.92 billion, a 34% increase, with scheduled revenue rising 32% to €9.15 billion [282]. - Total FY24 revenue increased by 25% to €13.44 billion, with ancillary sales up 12% to €4.3 billion [282]. - The company reported a turnover of €13,444 million from taxonomy-eligible activities, which constitutes 100% of the total turnover [264]. - The total operating revenues for FY24 reached €13,444 million, with scheduled revenues of €9,145 million and ancillary revenues of €4,299 million [258]. - The company reported a revenue of €2.18 million, an increase from €2.07 million in the previous period, reflecting a growth of approximately 5.3% [267]. - The company plans to return approximately 25% of prior-year PAT to shareholders as ordinary dividends starting from FY25 [14]. - A maiden interim dividend of €0.175 per share was paid in February, with a final dividend of €0.178 per share expected after the 2024 AGM [15]. - Operating costs rose by 24% to €11.38 billion, primarily due to a 32% increase in fuel costs [283]. - The total operating expenses outside the scope of EU Taxonomy Regulation amounted to €10,968 million, highlighting significant operational costs [260]. Sustainability Initiatives - Ryanair aims to power 12.5% of its flights with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2030, having secured 1,000 tonnes of SAF at Stansted in FY24 [229]. - The Group's carbon intensity improved to 65g CO₂ per passenger/km in FY24, down from 66g CO₂ per passenger/km in FY23 [224]. - Ryanair has secured 10% of its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) requirements for 2030, with a target of reaching 12.5% [30]. - The Group's ongoing cost reductions and cash management strategies have been effective, as evidenced during the Covid-19 crisis [209]. - Ryanair has secured access to 80% of its 2030 sustainability goal, with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) expected to account for 34% of emissions reduction [230]. - The company is actively monitoring jet fuel consumption by aircraft to comply with sustainability reporting obligations [263]. - The overall expenditure on sustainable aviation fuel usage is being tracked to align with technical screening criteria [260]. - The partnership with Trinity College Dublin's Sustainable Aviation Research Centre has been extended for another 5 years with a commitment of €2.5 million [232]. Operational Efficiency - The delivery of 48 Boeing 737-8200 "Gamechanger" aircraft increased the fleet to 146, which carry 4% more passengers and burn 16% less fuel [225]. - The company has ordered 300 Boeing 737-MAX-10 aircraft to support traffic growth to 300 million passengers per annum by FY34 [15]. - The fleet grew to 590 aircraft, including 48 Boeing 737-8200 "Gamechanger" aircraft, which allow for 4% more passengers and 16% less fuel consumption [26][39]. - Fuel costs for FY25 are over 70% hedged, securing significant price savings [286]. - The company is investing in new technology development, focusing on enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [267]. Customer Satisfaction - Ryanair's Customer Satisfaction (CSAT) score for FY24 was 85%, exceeding the internal target of 82.5% despite operational disruptions [244]. - The company achieved a 95% customer satisfaction rate, maintaining consistent performance across its service offerings [267]. - Ryanair's customer satisfaction (CSAT) scores improved, and passengers saved over €5 billion by choosing Ryanair over higher fare competitors [21]. Growth and Expansion - Traffic grew by 9% to almost 184 million passengers, while average fares increased by 21% to just under €49.80 [282]. - The company opened 5 new bases and over 200 new routes for Summer 2024, supporting growth plans [286]. - The company is exploring potential acquisition opportunities to bolster its product portfolio and enhance competitive positioning [267]. - Market expansion efforts are underway, targeting new geographic regions to increase market share and customer base [267]. - Ryanair has signed multi-year pay agreements with most union partners and recruited over 4,000 new employees [36]. Governance and Compensation - The Group CEO's base salary for FY24 is set at €1.2 million, with a maximum annual bonus reduced to 50% of basic pay [287]. - The Group CEO's total compensation for FY24 amounted to €1.788 million, a 93% increase compared to FY23 [293]. - The average percentage change in employee remuneration from FY24 compared to FY23 was an increase of approximately 7% [299]. - Non-Executive Director compensation was reviewed in 2023, resulting in a structured base fee of €75,000 per annum, with additional fees for specific roles [296]. - The Directors' Remuneration Policy received 73% approval at the 2023 AGM, indicating shareholder support for the company's compensation practices [324]. Risk Management - The Group's risk management program includes regular monitoring of key risks by the Audit Committee and Management Committee [200]. - The internal audit function has unrestricted access to the Audit Committee, ensuring oversight of financial, IT, and business processes [200].