Core Viewpoint - Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) has experienced a significant decline in share price over the past year, underperforming compared to its industry and other airline operators [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance and Expectations - RYAAY's passenger volume has increased by 9% year over year, with expectations to reach nearly 200 million passengers in fiscal 2025, an improvement from the previous estimate of 198-200 million [4] - The company ended the third quarter of fiscal 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $3.31 billion, significantly higher than its current debt of $905 million, indicating a strong balance sheet [6][7] - RYAAY plans to repay a maturing €850 million bond from internal cash resources in September 2025, reflecting its commitment to debt repayment [7] Group 2: Fleet Modernization and Growth Initiatives - RYAAY is modernizing its fleet to meet rising travel demand, with 172 of the 210 Boeing 737-8200 aircraft expected to be delivered by December 31, 2024, and additional orders for 300 Boeing 737-MAX-10 aircraft for delivery between 2027 and 2033 [5] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased €700 million worth of shares by August 2024, and is on track to complete an €800 million buyback program by mid-2025 [12] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - RYAAY is currently trading at a discount compared to the industry based on its enterprise value to total sales ratio, and it has a Value Score of B [13] Group 4: Challenges and Cost Pressures - Production delays at Boeing are impacting RYAAY's fleet expansion plans, leading to a reduction in fiscal 2026 traffic growth targets from 215 million to 206 million passengers [16] - Operating expenses have risen, with staff costs increasing by 18% year over year and total operating expenses up by 8% during the first nine months of fiscal 2025, putting pressure on profit margins [17]

Group 1: Ryanair's Performance - Ryanair reported 12.4 million passengers in January 2025, a 2% year-over-year increase, with a load factor of 91%, up from 89% a year ago [1] - The company faced challenges due to 38 delayed Boeing deliveries, impacting its growth plans [2] - For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Ryanair's earnings per share were 29 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents, while revenues reached $3.15 billion, surpassing the estimate of $2.94 billion [3] Group 2: Traffic and Future Expectations - Traffic grew 9% year-over-year despite Boeing delivery delays, with average fares increasing by 1% [4] - Ryanair anticipates fiscal 2025 traffic to reach nearly 200 million passengers, a 9% increase, up from a previous estimate of 198-200 million passengers [4] Group 3: Market Position and Comparisons - Ryanair holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with shares gaining 16% over the past year, compared to a 26.7% growth in the Zacks Airline industry [5] - Other airline stocks of interest include United Airlines and SkyWest, both holding a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with United Airlines showing an expected earnings growth rate of 21.11% for the current year [7]

Group 1 - The article provides an analysis of Ryanair's recent Q3 2025 performance, indicating a focus on the company's financial results and market position [1] - The analysis follows previous evaluations of International Airlines Group and Deutsche Lufthansa AG, both of which are rated as "buy" [1] - The commentary is aimed at buy-side hedge professionals who are interested in fundamental, income-oriented, long-term analysis across global developed markets [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in Ryanair shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [2] - The article expresses the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] - There is no business relationship disclosed between the author and any company whose stock is mentioned in the article [2]

Core Insights - Ryanair Holdings plc reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings per share (EPS) of 29 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents, and showing year-over-year improvement [1] - Revenues reached $3.15 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.94 billion, driven by strong Christmas/New Year bookings [2] - Profit after tax increased significantly to €149 million from €15 million in the same quarter last year [2] Financial Performance - Traffic grew by 9% year over year, despite Boeing delivery delays, with average fares increasing by 1% [2][3] - Load factor remained stable at 92%, indicating consistent passenger demand [3] - Operating costs rose by 8% year over year to €2.93 billion, attributed to higher staff and other costs, partially offset by fuel hedge savings [3] Shareholder Returns - Ryanair has completed over 50% of its €800 million buyback program, expected to be completed by mid-2025, returning nearly €9 billion to shareholders since 2008 [4] - An interim dividend of €0.223 per share is scheduled for payment on February 26, 2025 [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates fiscal 2025 traffic to reach nearly 200 million passengers, an increase from the previous estimate of 198-200 million passengers [5] Market Position - Ryanair currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has seen a 16% increase in share price over the past six months, compared to the industry’s 26.7% rise [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a Q3 profit after tax of EUR149 million, with a traffic growth of 9% to 45 million passengers, although profits for the nine months were 12% lower than the previous year at EUR1.94 billion compared to EUR2.19 billion, attributed to an 8% decrease in airfares [4][6][16] - Revenue per passenger increased by 1%, with average fares and ancillary revenue also up by 1% [5][6] - Ancillary revenues rose by 10% to EUR1.04 billion in Q3, while operating costs increased by 8% to EUR2.93 billion due to traffic growth [6][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 9% traffic growth despite Boeing aircraft delivery delays, with ancillary revenues showing a significant increase [5][6] - The integration of approved OTA partnerships is progressing well, contributing positively to revenue streams [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has revised its FY 2026 traffic target down to 206 million passengers, reflecting a 3% growth, due to ongoing Boeing delivery delays [9][16] - The company anticipates that European short-haul capacity will remain constrained in summer 2025, benefiting forward bookings and pricing [10][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reallocate scarce capacity growth to regions and airports that are incentivizing traffic growth, particularly in Poland, Spain, Sweden, and regional Italy [10] - The company is actively reviewing ownership and control restrictions in light of EU shareholding trends, expecting to reach the 50% threshold in early 2025 [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding future traffic growth, despite the current constraints and external risks such as Boeing delivery delays and geopolitical conflicts [16] - The company is guiding a full-year 2025 profit after tax in the range of EUR1.55 billion to EUR1.61 billion, contingent on avoiding adverse developments [16] Other Important Information - The company has completed over 60% of its EUR800 million share buyback program and expects to finish it by mid-2025 [5][7] - The company is well-hedged for fuel costs, with over 75% hedged at approximately $77 per barrel [18] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Can you discuss the type of growth for summer and the supply chain issues? - Management noted that while they expect reasonable growth in Q1, visibility into Q2 is limited, and they are frustrated by Boeing's delivery delays impacting growth targets [25][29] Question: What is the update on OTA partnerships and their impact on bookings? - Management confirmed that agreements with over 90% of major OTAs are in place, leading to strong forward bookings at higher average fares [47][48] Question: What are the implications of slower growth on unit costs? - Management indicated that slower growth should not constrain costs significantly, as they have adjusted crew levels in anticipation of aircraft deliveries [62][64] Question: How does the company view capacity constraints in Europe? - Management believes that while there may be some modest capacity growth, it is not occurring in markets where the company is expanding, allowing them to capture market share [72][74] Question: What are the expectations for CapEx given revised delivery outlooks? - Management expects CapEx for FY 2025 to be around EUR1.7 billion to EUR1.8 billion, with adjustments based on aircraft delivery timelines [129][131]

Core Insights - Ryanair reported a Q3 profit after tax of EUR149 million, driven by a 9% increase in traffic to 45 million passengers and slightly higher fares [3][4] - For the nine-month period, profits totaled EUR1.94 billion, which is 12% lower than the previous year's profit of EUR2.19 billion, attributed to an 8% decrease in airfares [3] Q3 Highlights - Traffic growth of 9% to 45 million passengers was achieved despite ongoing Boeing aircraft delivery delays [4] - The company experienced stronger bookings during the Christmas and New Year period at marginally better fares than anticipated [3]

Q3 Results – Jan 2025 Europe's Lowest Cost Air line 2 2 Lowest fare/lowest cost EU airline No. 1, Traffic: c.200m (+9%) No. 1, OTP & reliability No. 1 Large Cap. ESG airline – Sustainalytics 300 MAX-10 order – Decade of Growth Fin. strength + lowest cost = L.T. winner Europe's No. 1 Cover age & Choice 3 Europe's Lowest Costs – Gap W idens | € per pax | RYA | (ii) WIZ | EZJ | LUV | IAG | LUF | AFKLM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Staff/Efficiency | 8 | 8 | 14 | 75 | 47 | 44 | 92 | | Ai ...

Financial Performance - Ryanair reported a stronger-than-expected after-tax profit of 149 million euros ($155 8 million) for the fiscal third quarter ending December 2024, significantly surpassing the anticipated 60 million euros [2] - The company attributed the higher profit to marginally increased fares driven by stronger Christmas and New Year bookings [2] Passenger Traffic - Ryanair's passenger traffic grew by 9% to 45 million passengers in the fiscal third quarter despite prolonged Boeing delivery delays [2] - The company revised its full-year passenger traffic target for the fiscal year ending March 2026 downward to 206 million passengers from an earlier target of 210 million due to insufficient aircraft deliveries from Boeing [3] - This follows a previous revision in November 2024, where the target was reduced from 215 million passengers [3] Boeing Delivery Delays - Ryanair cited ongoing delays in Boeing's 737 production, which is recovering from a strike in late 2024, as a key factor impacting its ability to meet its original passenger traffic growth targets [3]

Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) Performance - Ryanair reported 13 6 million passengers in December 2024, an 8% year-over-year increase and higher than November's 13 million [1] - The load factor improved to 92% in December 2024 from 91% in the same period last year, with 77,380 flights operated, up from 73,750 in November [2] - Traffic grew 9% year-over-year in fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025, despite Boeing delivery delays [3] - Ryanair expects traffic to grow 8% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, assuming no worsening of Boeing delivery delays [4] Ryanair's Market Performance - Ryanair shares declined 12 5% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Airline industry's 36 1% growth [5] Other Airline Picks - Southwest Airlines (LUV) has an expected earnings growth rate of 105% for 2025, with a 5 3% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings in the past 60 days [7][8] - SkyWest (SKYW) has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 79 1% in the trailing four quarters and a 5 3% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share in the past 60 days [9][10]

[Ryanair Holdings plc Transaction in own shares](index=1&type=section&id=Ryanair%20Holdings%20plc%20Transaction%20in%20own%20shares) Ryanair Holdings plc conducted a share repurchase on December 30, 2024, for cancellation, under its existing buy-back program [Share Repurchase Details](index=1&type=section&id=Share%20Repurchase%20Details) Ryanair Holdings plc repurchased ordinary shares and ADSs on December 30, 2024, for cancellation, detailing transaction volumes and prices - On Monday, December 30, 2024, the company purchased a total of **27,911** ordinary shares and **79,836** shares underlying American Depositary Shares for cancellation[5](index=5&type=chunk) Share Repurchase Price Details (December 30, 2024) | Metric | Per Ordinary Share | Per Ordinary Share underlying ADS | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Volume weighted average price** | €19.0313 | US$21.9074 | | **Highest price paid** | €19.070 | US$22.030 | | **Lowest price paid** | €19.010 | US$21.695 | [Program Context](index=2&type=section&id=Program%20Context) The share purchases are part of the company's existing buy-back program, announced August 27, 2024, with all acquired shares designated for cancellation - The share purchases are part of the company's existing share buy-back programme announced on August 27, 2024[8](index=8&type=chunk) - All shares purchased under this program are designated for cancellation[8](index=8&type=chunk) - This announcement complies with Article 5(1)(b) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014[8](index=8&type=chunk)