Core Viewpoint - Saia, Inc. is a trucking company specializing in less-than-truckload (LTL) freight shipments, which allows for the transportation of smaller freight from multiple customers across the country [1] Company Overview - Saia, Inc. operates in the trucking industry, focusing on LTL shipments, which are characterized by not being filled by a single customer [1] Investment Focus - The analysis emphasizes a focus on small- to mid-cap companies, which are often overlooked by investors, while also occasionally reviewing large-cap companies for a broader market perspective [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Saia, Inc. and raises its price target from $370 to $403 despite the company's financial challenges [1][6] Financial Performance - Saia reported a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.77 for Q4 2025, down from $2.84 in Q4 2024, and a full-year diluted EPS of $9.52, down from $13.51 in 2024 [2][6] - The adjusted diluted EPS, excluding a net gain on real estate, was $9.11 for the full year of 2025 [2] Revenue and Operating Metrics - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $790 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year [3] - Operating income decreased significantly by 36.9%, totaling $64 million, and the operating ratio increased to 91.9% from 87.1% in Q4 2024, indicating higher operating costs relative to revenue [3][6] Stock Performance - The stock price of SAIA is currently at $381.64, having decreased by 6.83% or $27.96 on the day, with a trading range between $375 and $396.44 [4] - Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated between a high of $507.39 and a low of $229.12, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.17 billion [4] Operational Challenges - Saia experienced a decrease in LTL shipments per workday by 0.5% and LTL tonnage per workday by 1.5%, reflecting challenges in maintaining shipment volumes [5]

Core Viewpoint - Saia, Inc. reported mixed financial results for Q4 2025, with a significant EPS miss but revenue exceeding expectations, indicating operational challenges despite steady sales performance. Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.77, below the estimated $1.90, and down from $2.84 in the same quarter last year, reflecting a negative surprise of 6.77% [2][6] - Revenue for the quarter was approximately $790 million, surpassing the estimated $773.8 million and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $780.61 million, resulting in a positive surprise of 1.2% [3][6] - Operating income decreased by 36.9% to $64 million, and the operating ratio worsened to 91.9% from 87.1% in the previous year, indicating operational challenges [4] Operational Metrics - LTL shipments and tonnage per workday declined by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, suggesting the need for Saia to address operational issues to improve profitability [4] Valuation Metrics - Saia has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 36.67 and a price-to-sales ratio of about 3.20, reflecting the market's valuation of its earnings and revenue [5] - The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating a conservative approach to debt and a strong capital structure [5]

Less-than-truckload carrier Saia said it sees more tailwinds than headwinds facing its business in the new year. The company has opened 39 terminals in the past three years, making it a true national carrier. However, costs associated with ramping the new locations were again an overhang on quarterly results. The Johns Creek, Georgia-based company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.77 on Tuesday before the market opened. The result was 38% lower year over year and 14 cents below the consens ...

Group 1 - Saia has invested over $2 billion in the last three years to expand its network, resulting in a nationwide network that has been fully operational for one year, with parts of the network achieving operating ratios (ORs) in the upper 70% range [3][6] - The company's core business operations met expectations for the quarter, although elevated self-insurance costs from prior accidents amounted to approximately $4.7 million [4] - Many new terminals opened by Saia have operating ratios in the mid to upper 90s, indicating challenges in achieving operational efficiency [4][5] Group 2 - The operating ratio for Saia worsened to 91.9% in Q4 2025, which is less favorable than the typical Q1 profitability levels, with annual operating income at $337 million representing a 30% decrease [7] - Despite current challenges, Saia plans to grow its terminal network to 230 facilities and aims to achieve an overall operating ratio in the 70% range [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue reached a record $790 million, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year [10][14] - Adjusted operating ratio for the fourth quarter was 91.9%, deteriorating from 87.1% a year ago due to increased self-insurance costs [17][18] - Diluted earnings per share decreased to $1.77 from $2.84 in the same quarter last year [18] - Operating income for the full year 2025 was $352.2 million, with an adjusted operating income of $337.7 million [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments per day decreased by 0.5% year-over-year, while tonnage per day declined by 1.5% [9] - Revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge decreased by 0.5% to $297.57 [14] - Despite volume declines, revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge increased by 1.1% sequentially from the third quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southern California region experienced an 18% volume decline compared to the prior year, impacting overall revenue [10] - The company reported a cargo claims ratio of 0.47% for the fourth quarter, a record low [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has invested over $2 billion in capital over the last three years to expand its national network, which is expected to drive future growth [7][23] - Focus on optimizing network performance through technology investments and enhancing customer service capabilities [23][24] - The company aims to achieve a return on its investments while continuing to manage inflationary costs [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for market share gains despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [5][22] - The company anticipates that improvements in macroeconomic conditions could lead to better performance in 2026 [24] - Management noted that while inflationary pressures remain, ongoing investments in safety and technology are expected to mitigate some costs [20][22] Other Important Information - The company reported a 21% reduction in preventable accident frequency and a 10% decline in lost-time injuries year-over-year [20] - The company has excess capacity of approximately 20%-25% in its network, positioning it well for future volume increases [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss monthly tonnage data and its impact on sequential margin seasonality? - Management provided monthly shipment data, indicating fluctuations in tonnage and shipments, with expectations for improved performance in Q1 [28][29] Question: What is the tonnage backdrop for the expected operating ratio improvement? - Management indicated that positive macro data could lead to tonnage growth, contributing to improved operating ratios [37][38] Question: How do new terminals impact profitability and operating ratios? - New terminals are currently a drag on overall operating ratios but are expected to improve as they mature [44][46] Question: What is the overall pricing environment and how does it relate to customer recognition of investments? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining pricing initiatives and noted that the national network enhances customer retention [52][56] Question: What are the expectations for tonnage and pricing in a flat market? - Management believes that even in a flat market, the company can gain market share through its national network and service quality [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue reached a record $790 million, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year [10][14] - Adjusted operating ratio for the fourth quarter was 91.9%, deteriorating from 87.1% a year ago, primarily due to increased self-insurance costs [7][18] - Diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.77, down from $2.84 in the same quarter last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments per day decreased by 0.5% year-over-year, while tonnage per day declined by 1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [9] - Revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, decreased by 0.5% to $297.57 [14] - Despite volume declines, revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge increased by 1.1% sequentially from the third quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southern California region experienced an 18% volume decline compared to the prior year, impacting revenue by an estimated $4 million for the quarter [10][11] - The company reported a cargo claims ratio of 0.47% for the fourth quarter, a record low [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has invested over $2 billion in capital over the last three years to expand its national network, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7][23] - The focus remains on optimizing network performance and enhancing customer service through technology investments [24][25] - The company aims to achieve a return on its investments while continuing to manage inflationary costs [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for market share gains and improved operating ratios as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [22][24] - The company is prepared for a potential uplift in demand, with excess capacity of approximately 20%-25% in its system [77] - Management noted that while the macro environment remains uncertain, they are positioned to capitalize on opportunities as they arise [22][24] Other Important Information - The company reported a 6.1% increase in fuel surcharge revenue, which constituted 15% of total revenue [14] - Total operating expenses increased by 5.6% in the fourth quarter, driven by rising salaries, wages, and benefits [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss monthly tonnage data and its impact on sequential margin seasonality? - Management provided monthly shipment data, indicating fluctuations in tonnage and shipments, with expectations for improved performance in Q1 [28][29] Question: What is the tonnage backdrop for the expected operating ratio improvement? - Management indicated that positive macro data could lead to tonnage growth, contributing to improved operating ratios [37][38] Question: How do new terminals impact profitability and operating ratios? - New terminals are currently a drag on overall operating ratios but are expected to improve as they mature [44][46] Question: What is the overall pricing environment and how does it relate to customer recognition of investments? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining pricing initiatives and noted that the national network enhances their value proposition [52][56] Question: What are the expectations for tonnage and pricing in a flat freight market? - Management believes they can continue to gain market share through strong service and customer relationships, even in a flat market [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter revenue reached a record $790 million, reflecting a 0.1% increase compared to the prior year [11] - The operating ratio for the fourth quarter increased to 91.9%, up from 87.1% a year ago, primarily due to increased operating expenses [15][16] - Diluted earnings per share decreased to $1.77 from $2.84 in the same quarter last year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments per day decreased by 0.5% year-over-year, while tonnage per day declined by 1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [7] - Revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, decreased by 0.5% to $297.57 [11] - The Southern California region experienced an 18% volume decline, resulting in an estimated $4 million revenue reduction for the quarter [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 6.6% increase in contractual renewals in January 2026, indicating strong customer acceptance trends [7] - Despite a challenging demand environment, the company saw a 21% reduction in preventable accident frequency and a 10% decline in lost-time injuries, reflecting improvements in safety metrics [6][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has invested over $2 billion in capital over the last three years to expand its national network, which is expected to drive long-term profitable growth [5][22] - The focus remains on leveraging the national network to enhance service quality and operational efficiency, with an emphasis on technology investments [22][23] - The company aims to ensure appropriate compensation for its investments as it continues to scale its operations [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for improved performance in 2026, even if macroeconomic conditions remain soft [23] - The company is focused on core execution and believes it can continue to gain market share in a flat market by providing high-quality service [91] - Management noted that the operational challenges faced in January due to weather conditions are expected to normalize, with a positive outlook for the remainder of the quarter [83][88] Other Important Information - The company reported a cargo claims ratio of 0.47% for the fourth quarter, a record low, indicating effective risk management and operational performance [10] - Total operating expenses increased by 5.6% in the quarter, driven by rising self-insurance costs and employee-related expenses [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss monthly tonnage data and its impact on margin seasonality? - Management provided monthly shipment data, indicating fluctuations in tonnage and shipments, with expectations for improved performance in Q1 [26][27] Question: What is the tonnage backdrop for the 100-200 basis points improvement mentioned? - Management indicated that positive macro data could lead to tonnage growth, contributing to the expected operating ratio improvement [36][37] Question: How do new terminals impact profitability and operating ratio? - New terminals are currently a drag on the overall operating ratio but are expected to improve as they mature and contribute to revenue growth [44][45] Question: What is the pricing environment and how does it relate to customer recognition of investments? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining pricing discipline and noted that the national network enhances the value proposition for customers [51][54] Question: How does the company plan to manage costs and capacity? - Management indicated that they have excess capacity to absorb additional volume and are focused on managing costs effectively [75][76]

Core Insights - Saia reported revenue of $789.95 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.1% and a surprise of +1.2% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $780.61 million [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.77, down from $2.84 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of -6.77% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.90 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The operating ratio was reported at 91.9%, slightly higher than the estimated 91% by analysts [4] - LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) shipments totaled 2,164, exceeding the average estimate of 2,138 [4] - LTL pounds per shipment were 1,348, slightly below the average estimate of 1,355 [4] - LTL revenue per hundredweight (CWT), excluding fuel surcharge, was $22.07, surpassing the average estimate of $21.96 [4] - LTL tonnage was reported at 1,459.00 KTon, compared to the average estimate of 1,448.94 KTon [4] - LTL revenue per hundredweight (CWT) was $26.13, exceeding the average estimate of $25.87 [4] Stock Performance - Saia's shares have returned +12% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite showed no change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Saia reported quarterly earnings of $1.77 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.9 per share, and down from $2.84 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -6.77% [1] - The company posted revenues of $789.95 million for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.20%, and showing a slight increase from $788.95 million year-over-year [2] - Saia shares have increased approximately 25.4% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.92 on revenues of $787.67 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $10.76 on revenues of $3.4 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Transportation - Truck is currently in the bottom 8% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Saia has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates three times in the same period [2]