Key Points For many investors in the U.S., Jumia is the default stock for accessing Africa. It's not the only way for market participants to capitalize on consumer discretionary spending on that continent. Another promising company operates in an industry familiar to scores of investors in this country. 10 stocks we like better than Super Group (SGHC) › Investors' affinity for Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA) is understandable. Described as the Amazon of Africa, Jumia does have story stock potenti ...

Group 1 - Super Group (SGHC) Limited's stock dropped by 6.74% to close at $10.93 due to negative investor sentiment following the UK's decision to increase gambling duties [1] - Effective April 2026, taxes on remote gaming will rise to 40% from 21%, and online sports betting levies will increase to 25% from 15% in April 2027 [2] - The new tax regulations are expected to have a 6% negative impact on Super Group's 2026 adjusted EBITDA, although the company supports the taxation measures [3] Group 2 - Super Group's CEO emphasized the importance of strict enforcement against non-paying offshore operators to protect the regulated sector's investments [4] - The company has prepared mitigation measures to offset the tax impact and maintains its strategy of sustainable growth and disciplined capital allocation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Super Group (SGHC) Limited is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with positive analyst ratings and significant financial growth reported in recent quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Super Group reported a 65% increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $152 million, and a 26% rise in revenue to $556.9 million compared to $442.9 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - The profit for the quarter was $95.8 million, a substantial increase from $10.3 million in the same quarter last year [2]. Customer Growth and Guidance - The company experienced an 18% increase in monthly active customers, totaling 5.5 million [3]. - Super Group raised its revenue guidance to between $2.17 billion and $2.27 billion, up from the previous range of $2.125 billion to $2.20 billion [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to a range of $555 million to $565 million, compared to the prior guidance of $550 million to $560 million [3]. Company Overview - Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as a global holding company for online sports betting and gaming, offering platforms such as Betway and Spin [4].

Group 1: Company Performance - Roku has returned 25.5% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the average loss of 14.8% in the Consumer Discretionary sector [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Roku's full-year earnings has increased by 182.1% over the past 90 days, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a stronger earnings outlook [4] - Roku holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it has characteristics that may lead to outperformance in the market over the next one to three months [3] Group 2: Industry Context - Roku is part of the Broadcast Radio and Television industry, which has seen an average loss of 60.1% this year, indicating that Roku is performing better than its industry peers [6] - The Consumer Discretionary sector, which includes Roku, ranks 13 in the Zacks Sector Rank, reflecting a mixed performance among its constituents [2] - Another stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Super Group (SGHC) Limited, has achieved a year-to-date return of 92% and also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5]

Group 1 - Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates global online sports betting and gaming services through its Betway sportsbook and casino platform, as well as its Spin multi-brand online casino business [1] - The company reported a profit of $95.8 million and revenue of $556.9 million for the latest earnings period, reflecting a 38% year-over-year increase and outperforming estimates by $46.51 million [1] - Super Group raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.17 billion and $2.27 billion, up from the previous guidance of $2.125 billion to $2.20 billion [2] Group 2 - The adjusted EBITDA guidance has also been increased to between $555 million and $565 million, compared to the previous range of $550 million to $560 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Super Group (SGHC) Limited has shown a recent price increase and analysts suggest significant upside potential based on price targets, with a mean target indicating a 48.8% increase from the current price [1][2]. Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean price target for SGHC is $18, with a standard deviation of $1.2 across eight estimates, indicating a consensus among analysts [2]. - The lowest estimate is $16.00, suggesting a 32.2% increase, while the highest estimate is $20.00, indicating a potential surge of 65.3% [2]. - A low standard deviation signifies strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price direction [9]. Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about SGHC's earnings prospects, with a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [11]. - Over the past 30 days, one estimate has increased, leading to an 8.7% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12]. - SGHC holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13]. Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are a common tool for investors, they can often mislead, and reliance solely on them may not yield favorable returns [7][10]. - Analysts may set optimistic price targets due to business incentives, which can inflate expectations [8].

Core Insights - Super Group SGHC Ltd. (NYSE:SGHC) experienced a significant stock price increase of 15.62% on Tuesday, closing at $12.21, following strong earnings and a positive growth outlook for 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The net income attributable to shareholders for Super Group in Q3 rose by 860% to $96 million, compared to $10 million in the same period last year [2]. - Revenues increased by 25.7% to $557 million from $443 million year-on-year, driven by growth in Africa, Europe, and North America, which offset declines in South and Latin America [3]. - The customer base grew by 18.8% to 5.5 million from 4.7 million year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - Super Group raised its revenue guidance for full-year 2025 to a range of $2.17 to $2.27 billion, up from the previous range of $2.125 to $2.2 billion [4]. - The adjusted EBITDA outlook was also increased to $555 million to $565 million, compared to the prior range of $550 million to $560 million [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated total revenue of $557 million, representing a 26% year-over-year increase [13] - Group adjusted EBITDA reached $152 million, reflecting a 65% year-over-year growth with a margin of approximately 27% [14] - Sports betting wagers hit $900 million for the quarter, up 12%, while casino wagers increased by 20% year over year [15] - The sports book margin improved from 11% in Q3 2024 to 12.8% in Q3 2025 [15] - The company ended the quarter with $462 million in cash on the balance sheet [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in Europe surged 46% year over year, with the UK and Spain leading at 711% and 111% growth, respectively [6] - Africa delivered 36% year-over-year growth, with Botswana showing strong performance since launch [7] - South Africa grew 23% year over year, while North America saw a 14% increase, with Canada (excluding Ontario) up 15% [8] - APAC revenue was up 3% year over year, marking an improvement from the previous quarter's 6% decline [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully completed the migration to a new technology platform in Nigeria, enhancing scalability and customer experience [8] - In Zambia, the company is navigating casino tax headwinds and making progress [8] - Ontario's revenue increased by 3%, with plans to launch a new casino client in 2026 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the upcoming Q4 launch of Supercoin, a South African rand-pegged digital asset stablecoin initiative, aimed at enhancing payments, rewards, and customer engagement [5] - The focus remains on executing growth strategies, unlocking further margin expansion, and delivering long-term value to shareholders [17] - The company is investing in markets that deliver the best returns while maintaining cost discipline and increasing operational efficiency [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning for a strong fourth quarter despite unfavorable sports outcomes in September [4] - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $2.17 billion and $2.27 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $555 million and $565 million [16] - Management highlighted the importance of customer engagement and retention as key drivers for future growth [72] Other Important Information - The company returned $136 million to shareholders over the last twelve months, including $20 million in the past quarter [15] - The digital asset wallet is expected to launch in Q1 2026, starting in South Africa [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on payment costs in Africa - Management indicated that payment costs in Africa are significantly higher than in other markets, but the implementation costs for Supercoin are manageable, with potential long-term savings [20][21] Question: Opportunity for using Supercoin to drive retention - Management emphasized that Supercoin will enhance customer acquisition and retention, providing various benefits to users [22] Question: Guidance and growth trends - Management acknowledged that Q4 revenue guidance assumes normalized sports hold and expressed excitement about continued customer activity and marketing efficiencies [26][27] Question: Tax developments in Africa and the UK - Management discussed the potential impact of tax changes in Kenya and Zambia, indicating opportunities to re-enter those markets [34][35] Question: Growth sustainability in Africa - Management noted that Africa's growth is broad-based and durable, with Botswana showing significant improvement [54] Question: New Zealand regulatory changes - Management is monitoring regulatory developments in New Zealand and adhering to advertising restrictions to ensure long-term market viability [90][91] Question: M&A strategy - Management stated that they are highly selective regarding M&A opportunities, focusing on finding the right price and ensuring acquisitions stand on their own [94][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated total revenue of $557 million, up 26% year-over-year [8] - Group-adjusted EBITDA reached $152 million, representing 65% year-over-year growth, with a robust margin of approximately 27% [8][9] - Sports betting wagers hit $901 million for the quarter, up 12%, while casino wagers increased by 20% year-over-year [9] - The company ended the quarter with $462 million cash on the balance sheet and returned $136 million to shareholders over the last 12 months [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Europe's revenue surged 46% year-over-year, with the UK and Spain leading at 71% and 11% growth respectively [5] - Africa delivered 36% year-over-year growth, with Botswana showing significant momentum since launch [6] - North America grew 14% year-over-year, with Canada ex-Ontario increasing by 15% [6] - APAC revenue was up 3% year-over-year, marking an improvement from the previous quarter's decline [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The UK and Spain's strong performance was attributed to regulatory stability, product innovation, and enhanced marketing execution [5][32] - Germany faced challenges due to tighter regulatory restrictions and reduced marketing spend [5] - In Africa, the successful migration to a new technology platform in Nigeria is expected to improve scalability and customer experience [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch Supercoin, a South African rand-pegged digital asset stablecoin, in Q4 2025, aiming to deepen customer loyalty and engagement [5][7] - The focus remains on executing growth strategies, unlocking further margin expansion, and delivering long-term value to shareholders [11] - The company is actively addressing regulatory challenges in various markets, including potential re-entry into Kenya due to favorable tax changes [56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging sports hold environment while maintaining record customer activity [11] - The guidance for the remainder of the year assumes a normalized sports hold, with continued momentum in customer activity expected [20] - Management highlighted the importance of customer engagement and operational efficiencies as key drivers for future growth [52] Other Important Information - The company is investing in AI to enhance customer support and trading operations, contributing to improved operational efficiency [8] - The balance sheet remains strong, allowing for continued investment in growth opportunities [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on payment costs in Africa - Management noted that payment costs in Africa are significantly higher than in other markets, but the implementation costs for Supercoin are manageable [15] Question: Opportunity for using Supercoin to drive retention - Management emphasized that Supercoin will enhance customer acquisition and retention through various benefits and rewards [17] Question: Guidance and growth trends - Management indicated that guidance reflects a normalized sports hold and expressed excitement about continued customer activity and marketing efficiencies [20][21] Question: Tax developments in Africa - Management discussed the impact of tax changes in Zambia and the UK, indicating a resilient business model that can absorb some tax increases [26][27] Question: Growth sustainability in Africa - Management highlighted Botswana's strong growth and the consistency across African markets, with expectations for continued stability following the tech migration in Nigeria [40] Question: New Zealand regulatory changes - Management is monitoring regulatory developments in New Zealand and adhering to advertising restrictions to ensure long-term market viability [65] Question: M&A strategy - Management remains selective regarding M&A opportunities, focusing on finding the right price and ensuring acquisitions stand on their own [68]

Financial Performance - Total Group Revenue reached $557 million, a 26% year-over-year increase[12, 16] - Group Adjusted EBITDA was $152 million, reflecting a 65% year-over-year growth and a 27% margin[12, 16] - Ex-U S Adjusted EBITDA increased by 42% year-over-year to $149 million[16] - The company paid out $20 million in dividends during the quarter, with a last twelve months total of $136 million[14] Customer Engagement - Average Unique Monthly Active Customers reached a new all-time high of 55 million, an 18% year-over-year increase, peaking at approximately 6 million in September[14, 16] Revenue Diversification - Net Revenue by geography shows continued global diversification, with Americas contributing 33%, Africa 41%, Europe 20%, and RoW 6% of the $550 million total in 3Q 2025[22] - Online Casino accounted for 84% of Net Revenue, while Sports contributed 16%[27] Operational Expenses - Direct Expenses accounted for 37% of Total Revenue Ex-U S [63] - Marketing Costs represented 21% of Total Revenue Ex-U S [63] - G&A Expenses accounted for 15% of Total Revenue Ex-U S [63] Guidance - The company updated its 2025 guidance, projecting Total Revenue between $217 billion and $227 billion and Adjusted EBITDA between $555 million and $565 million[75]