Key Takeaways SIGI is driving premium growth through exposure growth, high retention rates, and increased new business. The excess and surplus Lines segment gains from renewal pure price increases and strong new business momentum. Selective Insurance expects after-tax net investment income of $405 million for 2025.Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) shares are trading at a premium to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its price-to-book value of 1.69X is higher than the industry average ...

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Selective Insurance (SIGI) . Shares have lost about 3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Selective Insurance due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Th ...

Group 1 - Selective Insurance (NASDAQ: SIGI) is one of the largest insurance carriers in the U.S., specializing in commercial and personal insurance coverages [1] - The company also operates in the excess and surplus market, indicating a diverse portfolio in the insurance sector [1] - The CrickAnt, an actuary, contributes to the Cash Flow Club, focusing on company cash flows and access to capital, which may provide insights into investment opportunities in the insurance industry [1] Group 2 - The Cash Flow Club offers features such as access to a leader's personal income portfolio targeting yields of 6%+, community chat, and a "Best Opportunities" List, which may be beneficial for investors [1]

Financial Performance - Revenues for Q1 2025 reached $1,285,186, a 10% increase from $1,164,959 in Q1 2024[73] - After-tax net investment income rose to $95,621, reflecting a 12% increase compared to $85,640 in the previous year[73] - Net income available to common stockholders increased by 34% to $107,596 from $80,218 in Q1 2024[73] - Non-GAAP operating ROE for Q1 2025 was 14.4%, exceeding the 12% target and up from 11.7% in Q1 2024[75] - Net Premiums Written (NPW) increased by 7% to $1,240,443, and Net Premiums Earned (NPE) grew by 10% to $1,158,757 in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024[81] - Underwriting income rose significantly by 140% to $45,637 in Q1 2025, compared to $19,031 in Q1 2024[81] - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $284.0 million in First Quarter 2025, compared to $114.2 million in First Quarter 2024[154] Combined Ratio and Underwriting Performance - The combined ratio improved to 96.1%, down 2.1 points from 98.2% in Q1 2024[73] - The combined ratio improved to 96.1%, down from 98.2%, reflecting a 2.1-point decrease year-over-year[81] - The combined ratio improved by 2.6 points to 97.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a decrease in the loss and loss expense ratio to 66.6%[102] - The loss and loss expense ratio for Standard Commercial Lines improved to 63.8%, down from 66.7% in Q1 2024[91] - The combined ratio for Commercial Property decreased by 10.2 points to 83.9% in Q1 2025, with net catastrophe losses significantly lower at $16.4 million[104] - The combined ratio for Workers Compensation increased by 26.6 points to 105.9% in Q1 2025, impacted by higher current year casualty loss costs[106] - The loss and loss expense ratio for Standard Personal Lines improved by 7.3 points to 73.9% in Q1 2025, aided by a favorable prior year casualty reserve development of $5 million[110] - The combined ratio for E&S Lines increased by 4.9 points to 92.5% in Q1 2025, with loss and loss expense incurred rising by 37% to $87,990[113] Business Growth and Strategy - New business moderated as rate increases accelerated, but policy retention remained strong[79] - The company added 30 agency locations in Q1 2025, contributing to a net increase of 200 agency locations in 2024[79] - The company expects to write new business in Kansas, Montana, and Wyoming by the end of 2026[80] - Overall renewal pure pricing across insurance segments was 10.3%, up 2.2 points from the previous year[80] - The thirteen states added since 2017 produced $350 million in premium, representing approximately 10% of Standard Commercial Lines NPW[80] Investment Performance - Total invested assets grew by 7% to $10,295,310 thousand as of March 31, 2025, up from $9,651,297 thousand at December 31, 2024[119] - Net investment income earned increased by 12% to $95,621 thousand in Q1 2025 from $85,640 thousand in Q1 2024[121] - Net unrealized losses before tax decreased by 26% to $(232,510) thousand in Q1 2025 from $(314,680) thousand in Q1 2024[119] - The annualized after-tax yield on the investment portfolio decreased slightly to 3.8% in Q1 2025 from 3.9% in Q1 2024[121] - Net unrealized gains on equity securities increased by 52% to $1,050,000 in Q1 2025 from $692,000 in Q1 2024[122] Capital Management - The company maintains a solid capital base and high-quality underwriting portfolio, enhancing financial strength and underwriting capacity[152] - The company may take various actions to manage capital, including contributing capital to Insurance Subsidiaries and repurchasing shares[151] - The company issued $400 million of 5.90% Senior Notes due 2035, resulting in net proceeds of $395.9 million, which includes a $200 million capital contribution to the Insurance Subsidiaries[139] - The company repurchased 233,611 shares of common stock for $19.4 million, with $56.1 million of remaining capacity under the share repurchase program as of March 31, 2025[140] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had GAAP stockholders' equity of $3.3 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 21.7%[144] Tax and Regulatory - Federal income tax expense for Q1 2025 was $28,990,000, up from $20,048,000 in Q1 2024, resulting in an effective tax rate of 21.2%[123]

Image source: The Motley Fool.Wednesday, May 7, 2025CALL PARTICIPANTSJohn Marchioni: Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive OfficerPatrick Brennan: Executive Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerBrad Wilson: Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and TreasurerNeed a quote from one of our analysts? Email [email protected] Combined Ratio: 96.1%, including 3.7 points of catastrophe losses and 0.4 points of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in personal auto for Q1 2025.N ...

INVESTOR PRESENTATION First Quarter 2025 Copyright © 2025 by Selective Insurance Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Exhibit 99.3 SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT INTRODUCTION Every day, our interactions with our customers and distribution partners reinforce the importance of our role in rebuilding lives and businesses, making communities safer, and supporting economic expansion. We make certain statements and reference other information in this presentation that are "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private ...

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Brad Wilson - SVP, IR & Treasurer John Marchioni - Chairman, President & CEO Patrick Brennan - EVP & CFO Conference Call Participants Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer Mike Zaremski - BMO Paul Newsome - Research Meyer Shields - KBW Operator Good day, and welcome to the Selective Insurance Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-o ...

Core Insights - Selective Insurance reported revenue of $1.29 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a 10.2% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.3 billion by 0.89% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.76, up from $1.33 in the same quarter last year, but below the consensus estimate of $1.89, resulting in a surprise of -6.88% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Underwriting expense ratio was reported at 31.6%, matching the four-analyst average estimate [4] - Loss and loss expense ratio stood at 64.4%, slightly better than the 64.6% average estimate [4] - Combined ratio was 96.1%, outperforming the average estimate of 96.4% [4] - Net premiums earned were $1.16 billion, slightly below the $1.17 billion estimate, but represented a 10.3% increase year-over-year [4] - Net investment income earned was $120.70 million, compared to the estimate of $123.30 million, marking a 12% year-over-year increase [4] - Standard Personal Lines net premiums earned were $103.70 million, below the estimate of $110.06 million, showing a minor decline of 0.1% year-over-year [4] - Standard Commercial Lines net premiums earned were $912.20 million, slightly below the estimate of $914.23 million, but reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Excess and Surplus Lines net premiums earned were $142.90 million, exceeding the estimate of $142.47 million, with a significant year-over-year increase of 26.5% [4] - Other income was reported at $5.50 million, below the estimate of $7.82 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 29.5% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Selective Insurance have returned +1.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -6.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Gross premiums written for Q1 2025 reached $1,428.8 million, a 8.5% increase from $1,321.9 million in Q1 2024[8] - Net premiums written increased by 14% year-over-year to $1,240.4 million, compared to $1,089.6 million in Q1 2024[8] - Net income available to common stockholders for Q1 2025 was $107.6 million, compared to $80.2 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 34.3% increase[8] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q1 2025 was $107.4 million, compared to $81.5 million in Q1 2024, marking a 31.8% increase[8] - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $95.6 million, slightly down from $97.3 million in Q4 2024[16] - Net premiums earned reached $912.2 million, up from $834.1 million in the same quarter last year[22] - The company reported a GAAP underwriting income of $10.7 million, compared to $14.0 million in the prior year[33] - Net income available to common stockholders for Q1 2025 was $107.6 million, an increase from $93.2 million in Q4 2024[48] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q1 2025 was $107.4 million, compared to $99.6 million in the previous quarter[48] - The diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 was $1.76, up from $1.52 in Q4 2024[48] Underwriting Performance - Underwriting income before tax improved significantly to $45.6 million, up from a loss of $173.7 million in Q2 2024[8] - The loss and loss expense ratio improved to 64.4% from 67.0% in Q1 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[8] - The GAAP combined ratio for Q1 2025 was 96.1%, a decrease from 98.2% in Q1 2024, showing improved operational efficiency[8] - GAAP underwriting income for Q1 2025 was $45.6 million, significantly up from $16.8 million in Q4 2024[19] - The combined ratio improved to 96.1% for Q1 2025, down from 98.5% in Q4 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[19] - The combined ratio improved to 96.4%, down from 98.8% in the same quarter last year, indicating better underwriting performance[22] - The loss and loss expense ratio decreased to 63.8%, compared to 66.7% in the prior year quarter[22] - The underwriting expense ratio was 32.5%, slightly up from 31.7% in the prior year quarter[22] - The combined ratio for the quarter was 92.5%, a slight improvement from 87.6% in the same quarter last year[33] - The loss and loss expense ratio decreased to 61.6% from 56.7% year-over-year[33] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased to $14,197.6 million, up from $12,056.1 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 17.7%[8] - Total assets increased to $14,197.6 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $13,514.2 million at December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 5.0%[13] - Total liabilities rose to $10,939.0 million as of March 31, 2025, from $10,394.1 million at December 31, 2024, an increase of 5.2%[13] - The company maintained a debt to total capitalization ratio of 21.7%, up from 14.3% in Q1 2024, indicating increased leverage[8] - The ratio of debt to total capitalization increased to 21.7% in Q1 2025, up from 14.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a higher leverage position[16] Investment Performance - Total investments increased to $10,288.6 million, up from $9,641.8 million, representing a growth of 6.7%[42] - Fixed income securities at fair value reached $8,630.0 million, accounting for 84% of total investments, consistent with previous quarters[42] - Short-term investments rose to $631.1 million, a significant increase of 24% compared to $509.3 million in the previous quarter[42] - Equity securities at fair value increased to $266.5 million, up from $213.6 million, reflecting a growth of 24.7%[42] - The weighted average credit quality of fixed income and short-term investments remained stable at A+[42] - The company holds $134.5 million in U.S. government obligations, which is 2% of total fixed income investments[42] - Private equity funds have a remaining commitment of $322.6 million, indicating ongoing investment strategies[43] - Total fixed income investments at carry value amounted to $8,888.2 million, showing a consistent trend across reporting periods[42] - The number of alternative investment funds is 99, with a total market value of $783.6 million[43] - The company maintains a non-investment grade credit quality of 3% within its fixed income and short-term investments[42] Pricing and Business Growth - Direct new business written was $251.3 million for Q1 2025, compared to $232.0 million in Q4 2024, showing growth in new business acquisition[19] - Renewal pure price increases averaged 10.3% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 10.7% in Q4 2024, reflecting stable pricing trends[19] - Direct new business written was $172.2 million, showing an increase from $172.1 million in the same quarter last year[22] - Renewal pure price increases averaged 9.1%, up from 7.6% in the prior year quarter[22] - Net catastrophe losses for the quarter were $19.8 million, compared to $38.5 million in the same quarter last year[22] - Net catastrophe losses for the quarter were $16.4 million, compared to a gain of $2.9 million in the prior year[33]

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is currently experiencing a short-term bullish trend, trading above its 50-day simple moving average, despite a 17.2% decline from its 52-week high [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of April 11, 2025, SIGI's share price was $86.63, down from a 52-week high of $104.67 [1]. - SIGI has underperformed the industry with a year-to-date loss of 7.4% [5]. - The average target price from seven analysts is $93.57 per share, indicating a potential upside of 8.8% from the last closing price [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $7.43, reflecting a 127.2% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected to rise by 10.4% to $5.4 billion [14]. Valuation Metrics - SIGI shares are trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.8, which is higher than the industry average of 1.61 [9]. - Return on equity for SIGI was 7.3%, below the industry average of 8.3% [18]. - Return on invested capital was 3.7%, lagging behind the industry average of 6.4% [20]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to improve organic growth by appointing new distribution partners to achieve a 25% agent market share and expanding into new states [21]. - SIGI has successfully expanded its commercial lines presence to 27 states and plans further geographic expansion [22]. - The company estimates an after-tax net investment income of $405 million in 2025, supported by a growing invested asset base and higher book yields [23]. Market Position - SIGI's wealth distribution strategy includes regular dividend increases and share buybacks, with a dividend yield of 1.8%, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [25]. - Despite a favorable leverage position, increasing expenses have impacted margin expansion, leading to a cautious outlook on the stock [26].