Key Takeaways Premium momentum driven by new business volume, rate increases, strong retention, and product expansion. Investment income benefits from higher yields and an improved rate environment. Strategic acquisitions expand surety, reinsurance, and Markel Ventures' revenue streams. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is well-poised to gain from strong renewal, fuel price increases, favorable excess and surplus (E&S) lines marketplace conditions and higher income earned on fixed-income securities por ...

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance reported mixed results in its latest earnings report, with operating income missing estimates but revenues exceeding expectations, leading to a complex outlook for the company moving forward [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported Q2 2025 operating income of $1.31 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.5%, but rebounding from a loss of $1.10 per share in the previous year [3]. - Total revenues reached $1.3 billion, a 10.9% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by higher net premiums written and net investment income [4]. - Net premiums written increased by 5% to $1.3 billion, with average renewal pure price rising by 80 basis points to 9.9% [4]. - Net investment income rose by 18% year-over-year to $101 million, while net catastrophe losses narrowed to $79.9 million from $90.5 million a year ago [5]. Expense and Ratio Analysis - The combined ratio improved to 96.1, a 1590 basis point improvement year-over-year, driven by lower losses and expenses [6]. - Total expenses decreased by 4.6% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, matching estimates [6]. Segment Performance - Standard Commercial Lines' net premiums written increased by 6% to $1 billion, with a combined ratio of 102.8, improving by 1600 basis points [7]. - Standard Personal Lines saw a 5% decrease in net premiums written to $110.5 million, with a combined ratio improving to 91.6 [8]. - Excess & Surplus Lines reported a 9% increase in net premiums written to $160.2 million, with a combined ratio of 89.8 [9]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q2 2025, total assets were $14.5 billion, a 7% increase from December 2024 [10]. - Long-term debt surged by 78% to $902.7 million, with a debt-to-total capitalization ratio of 21.1% [10]. - Adjusted book value per share increased by 5% year-over-year to $54.48 [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company did not repurchase shares but had $56.1 million remaining under authorization [11]. - A quarterly cash dividend of 38 cents per share was authorized, payable on September 2, 2025 [11]. Future Guidance - The company estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 97% to 98%, reflecting a 100-basis point deterioration from previous guidance [12]. - After-tax net investment income is projected to be $415 million, up from prior guidance of $405 million [12]. Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates for Selective Insurance, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [15]. - The overall VGM Score for the stock is A, indicating strong growth potential, but it lags in momentum with a D [14].

Core Insights - Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) is positioned for growth due to rising premiums, solid renewal pricing, high retention rates, and new business growth in Commercial Lines and Excess and Supply Lines [1][9] Financial Performance - SIGI has underperformed its industry in the first half of the year, with a share price decline of 7.4% compared to the industry's gain of 7.2% [2] - The company's earnings history shows consistent underperformance, lagging estimates in the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 14.43% and a 4.3% decline in earnings over the past five years, while the industry average growth was 20.9% [3] Growth Factors - From 2017 to 2024, SIGI achieved an 8.7% CAGR in net premiums written, driven by renewal price increases and strong direct new business growth [4] - The company aims to increase its agent market share to 25% by adding new distribution partners and expanding into additional states, with its Commercial Lines segment increasing its share of distribution partners' total premiums to 12% [4][9] - Geographic diversification is a key growth strategy, with SIGI expanding its operations to 27 states, including New Hampshire and the Southwest [6] Investment Performance - Despite a low interest rate environment, SIGI has shown strong investment performance, with a conservative allocation strategy of 82% in fixed maturities and short-term instruments, and 18% in equities and other holdings [5] - The company raised its after-tax net investment income guidance for 2025 to $415 million from $405 million [5][9] Challenges - SIGI faces exposure to catastrophe losses from natural disasters, which can lead to underwriting volatility and impact the combined ratio, estimated at 97% to 98% for 2025 [8] - Increasing competition in the Excess and Surplus (E&S) market poses challenges, with new entrants putting pressure on pricing and margins [9][10]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, DC 20549 FORM 10-Q (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter) or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from_____________________________to_____________________________ Commission File Number: 001-33067 SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC. ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly ...

Core Insights - Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) reported second-quarter 2025 operating income of $1.31 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.5%, but rebounding from a loss of $1.10 per share in the prior year [1][8] - The company's total revenues reached $1.3 billion, a 10.9% increase year-over-year, driven by higher net premiums written and net investment income, surpassing estimates by 0.9% [2][8] Financial Performance - Net premiums written (NPW) increased by 5% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, with average renewal pure price rising 80 basis points to 9.9% [2] - Net investment income rose 18% year-over-year to $101 million [3] - Net catastrophe losses were $79.9 million, down from $90.5 million in the previous year, while non-catastrophe property losses decreased to $173.2 million from $185.5 million [3] Combined Ratio and Expenses - The combined ratio improved by 1590 basis points year-over-year to 96.1, benefiting from lower catastrophe losses and loss expenses, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 [4][8] - Total expenses declined by 4.6% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, aligning with estimates [4] Segmental Results - Standard Commercial Lines' NPW increased by 6% year-over-year to $1 billion, with a combined ratio improvement of 1600 basis points to 102.8 [5] - Standard Personal Lines' NPW decreased by 5% year-over-year to $110.5 million, with a combined ratio improvement of 2650 basis points to 91.6 [6] - Excess & Surplus Lines' NPW rose by 9% year-over-year to $160.2 million, with a combined ratio improvement of 480 basis points to 89.8 [7] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, total assets were $14.5 billion, a 7% increase from December 2024 [9] - Long-term debt surged by 78% to $902.7 million, with a debt-to-total capitalization ratio of 21.1% [9] - Adjusted book value per share increased by 5% year-over-year to $54.48, with an operating return on common equity of 10.3% compared to negative 9.6% in the prior year [9] Shareholder Returns - The board authorized a quarterly cash dividend of 38 cents per share, payable on September 2, 2025 [10] 2025 Guidance - SIGI estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 97% to 98%, reflecting a 100-basis point deterioration from previous guidance, with net catastrophe losses expected to contribute 6 points [11] - The company anticipates after-tax net investment income of $415 million, an increase from prior guidance of $405 million [11]

分组1 - Selective Insurance reported quarterly earnings of $1.31 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 per share, and showing an earnings surprise of -15.48% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.32 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.90%, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.19 billion [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 2.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 7.3% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.76 on $1.35 billion in revenues, and for the current fiscal year, it is $7.21 on $5.33 billion in revenues [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8] - Arch Capital Group, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -10.1%, with revenues expected to be $4.65 billion, up 18% from the year-ago quarter [9][10]

[Report Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Report%20Overview) This report provides unaudited historical GAAP line of business supplement information for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. and Consolidated Subsidiaries - The report presents data covering the period from March 2023 through March 2025[1](index=1&type=chunk) [Table of Contents](index=2&type=section&id=TABLE%20OF%20CONTENTS) The report categorizes business lines into Standard Commercial, Standard Personal, and Excess & Surplus Lines - The report covers specific lines including General Liability, Commercial Automobile, Commercial Property, Workers Compensation, Businessowners' Policies (BOP), Bonds, Commercial Other, Personal Automobile, Personal Homeowners, Personal Other, E&S Casualty, and E&S Property[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Standard Commercial Lines](index=3&type=section&id=STANDARD%20COMMERCIAL%20LINES) The Standard Commercial Lines segment demonstrated improved underwriting performance in Q1 2025, reporting an underwriting income of **$32.9 million**, a significant increase from **$10.4 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **96.4%** from **98.8%** year-over-year, despite some underlying cost pressures [General Liability](index=3&type=section&id=General%20Liability) General Liability experienced a significant underwriting loss of **$15.9 million** in Q1 2025, compared to a **$29.4 million** loss in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **105.4%** from **110.8%** year-over-year General Liability - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 333.9 | $ 307.4 | +8.6% | | Net premiums earned | $ 294.7 | $ 273.4 | +7.8% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ (15.9) | $ (29.4) | +45.9% (less loss) | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 72.5 % | 78.8 % | -6.3 pts | | Combined ratio | 105.4 % | 110.8 % | -5.4 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **105.4%** in Q1 2025 from **92.5%** in Q1 2024, indicating a deterioration in underlying performance[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Commercial Automobile](index=4&type=section&id=Commercial%20Automobile) Commercial Automobile reported an underwriting income of **$7.6 million** in Q1 2025, a notable improvement from **$0.3 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **97.3%** from **99.9%** year-over-year Commercial Automobile - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 312.7 | $ 285.6 | +9.5% | | Net premiums earned | $ 283.6 | $ 251.7 | +12.7% |\ | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 7.6 | $ 0.3 | +2433.3% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 66.6 % | 69.7 % | -3.1 pts | | Combined ratio | 97.3 % | 99.9 % | -2.6 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development improved to **96.8%** in Q1 2025 from **99.3%** in Q1 2024[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Commercial Property](index=5&type=section&id=Commercial%20Property) Commercial Property generated an underwriting income of **$30.0 million** in Q1 2025, a substantial increase from **$9.6 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio significantly improving to **83.9%** from **94.1%** year-over-year Commercial Property - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 196.3 | $ 174.5 | +12.5% | | Net premiums earned | $ 186.5 | $ 161.6 | +15.4% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 30.0 | $ 9.6 | +212.5% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 49.8 % | 59.0 % | -9.2 pts | | Combined ratio | 83.9 % | 94.1 % | -10.2 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 8.8 % | 20.3 % | -11.5 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **75.1%** in Q1 2025 from **73.8%** in Q1 2024, indicating a slight deterioration in underlying performance when excluding catastrophes[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Workers Compensation](index=6&type=section&id=Workers%20Compensation) Workers Compensation reported an underwriting loss of **$4.7 million** in Q1 2025, a decline from an **$18.2 million** income in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio deteriorating to **105.9%** from **79.3%** year-over-year Workers Compensation - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 86.1 | $ 98.8 | -12.9% | | Net premiums earned | $ 79.0 | $ 87.8 | -10.1% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ (4.7) | $ 18.2 | -125.8% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 77.8 % | 52.2 % | +25.6 pts | | Combined ratio | 105.9 % | 79.3 % | +26.6 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **105.9%** in Q1 2025 from **96.4%** in Q1 2024, indicating a significant deterioration in underlying performance[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Businessowners' Policies (BOP)](index=7&type=section&id=Businessowners'%20Policies%20(BOP)) Businessowners' Policies (BOP) achieved an underwriting income of **$10.1 million** in Q1 2025, a substantial improvement from **$5.4 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **78.5%** from **86.4%** year-over-year BOP - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 51.0 | $ 44.7 | +14.1% | | Net premiums earned | $ 46.9 | $ 39.9 | +17.5% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 10.1 | $ 5.4 | +87.0% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 44.0 % | 51.9 % | -7.9 pts | | Combined ratio | 78.5 % | 86.4 % | -7.9 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 4.2 % | 10.6 % | -6.4 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development improved to **74.3%** in Q1 2025 from **75.8%** in Q1 2024[14](index=14&type=chunk) [Bonds](index=8&type=section&id=Bonds) Bonds reported an underwriting income of **$1.7 million** in Q1 2025, slightly lower than **$2.1 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio increasing to **87.1%** from **82.8%** year-over-year Bonds - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 14.4 | $ 12.4 | +16.1% | | Net premiums earned | $ 13.3 | $ 12.1 | +9.9% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 1.7 | $ 2.1 | -19.0% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 28.9 % | 27.6 % | +1.3 pts | | Combined ratio | 87.1 % | 82.8 % | +4.3 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **87.1%** in Q1 2025 from **82.8%** in Q1 2024[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Commercial Other](index=9&type=section&id=Commercial%20Other) Commercial Other maintained strong underwriting income of **$4.1 million** in Q1 2025, comparable to **$4.3 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio slightly increasing to **50.5%** from **44.0%** year-over-year Commercial Other - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 8.9 | $ 8.2 | +8.5% | | Net premiums earned | $ 8.2 | $ 7.6 | +7.9% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 4.1 | $ 4.3 | -4.7% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 3.2 % | 0.7 % | +2.5 pts | | Underwriting expense ratio | 47.4 % | 43.4 % | +4.0 pts | | Combined ratio | 50.5 % | 44.0 % | +6.5 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **50.5%** in Q1 2025 from **44.0%** in Q1 2024[20](index=20&type=chunk) [Total Standard Commercial Lines](index=10&type=section&id=Total%20Standard%20Commercial%20Lines) The Total Standard Commercial Lines segment reported an underwriting income of **$32.9 million** in Q1 2025, a significant increase from **$10.4 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **96.4%** from **98.8%** year-over-year, despite some underlying cost pressures Total Standard Commercial Lines - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 1,003.2 | $ 931.7 | +7.7% | | Net premiums earned | $ 912.2 | $ 834.1 | +9.4% | | Underwriting income | $ 32.9 | $ 10.4 | +216.3% | | Combined ratio | 96.4 % | 98.8 % | -2.4 pts | | Combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development | 94.2 % | 90.0 % | +4.2 pts | [Standard Personal Lines](index=11&type=section&id=STANDARD%20PERSONAL%20LINES) The Standard Personal Lines segment showed a positive turnaround in Q1 2025, achieving an underwriting income of **$2.0 million** compared to a **$5.3 million** loss in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **98.0%** from **105.1%** year-over-year [Personal Automobile](index=11&type=section&id=Personal%20Automobile) Personal Automobile reported an underwriting loss of **$5.9 million** in Q1 2025, an improvement from an **$11.5 million** loss in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **111.2%** from **120.2%** year-over-year Personal Automobile - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 45.3 | $ 55.0 | -17.6% | | Net premiums earned | $ 53.0 | $ 57.0 | -7.0% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ (5.9) | $ (11.5) | +48.7% (less loss) | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 85.1 % | 94.2 % | -9.1 pts | | Combined ratio | 111.2 % | 120.2 % | -9.0 pts | | (Favorable) unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development | 9.4 | 8.8 | +0.6 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development improved to **101.6%** in Q1 2025 from **110.2%** in Q1 2024[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Personal Homeowners](index=12&type=section&id=Personal%20Homeowners) Personal Homeowners achieved an underwriting income of **$3.4 million** in Q1 2025, a positive turnaround from a **$1.6 million** income in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio significantly improving to **92.8%** from **96.4%** year-over-year Personal Homeowners - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 39.8 | $ 42.2 | -5.7% | | Net premiums earned | $ 47.9 | $ 44.1 | +8.6% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 3.4 | $ 1.6 | +112.5% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 65.0 % | 68.2 % | -3.2 pts | | Combined ratio | 92.8 % | 96.4 % | -3.6 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 14.6 % | 25.3 % | -10.7 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development improved to **78.2%** in Q1 2025 from **82.4%** in Q1 2024[28](index=28&type=chunk) [Personal Other](index=13&type=section&id=Personal%20Other) Personal Other reported a strong underwriting income of **$4.5 million** in Q1 2025, comparable to **$4.6 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio remaining negative at **(64.8)%** in Q1 2025 Personal Other - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 2.4 | $ 2.8 | -14.3% | | Net premiums earned | $ 2.7 | $ 2.8 | -3.6% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 4.5 | $ 4.6 | -2.2% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 15.5 % | 20.0 % | -4.5 pts | | Underwriting expense ratio | (80.3) % | (85.9) % | +5.6 pts | | Combined ratio | (64.8) % | (65.9) % | +1.1 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development was **(64.8)%** in Q1 2025, compared to **(65.9)%** in Q1 2024, reflecting consistent strong performance[32](index=32&type=chunk) [Total Standard Personal Lines](index=14&type=section&id=Total%20Standard%20Personal%20Lines) The Total Standard Personal Lines segment showed a positive turnaround in Q1 2025, achieving an underwriting income of **$2.0 million** compared to a **$5.3 million** loss in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio improving to **98.0%** from **105.1%** year-over-year Total Standard Personal Lines - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 87.5 | $ 99.9 | -12.4% | | Net premiums earned | $ 103.7 | $ 103.8 | -0.1% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 2.0 | $ (5.3) | +137.7% (less loss) | | Combined ratio | 98.0 % | 105.1 % | -7.1 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 6.9 % | 11.4 % | -4.5 pts | | (Favorable) unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development | 4.8 | — | N/A | | Combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development | 86.3 % | 93.7 % | -7.4 pts | [Excess & Surplus Lines](index=15&type=section&id=EXCESS%20%26%20SURPLUS%20LINES) The Excess & Surplus Lines segment reported an underwriting income of **$10.7 million** in Q1 2025, a decrease from **$14.0 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio increasing to **92.5%** from **87.6%** year-over-year [E&S Casualty](index=15&type=section&id=E%26S%20Casualty) E&S Casualty reported a slight underwriting loss of **$0.4 million** in Q1 2025, a decline from an income of **$4.5 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio increasing to **100.5%** from **93.7%** year-over-year E&S Casualty - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 90.7 | $ 77.1 | +17.6% | | Net premiums earned | $ 85.1 | $ 71.6 | +18.9% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ (0.4) | $ 4.5 | -108.9% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 68.3 % | 62.7 % | +5.6 pts | | Combined ratio | 100.5 % | 93.7 % | +6.8 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development increased to **100.5%** in Q1 2025 from **93.7%** in Q1 2024[37](index=37&type=chunk) [E&S Property](index=16&type=section&id=E%26S%20Property) E&S Property generated an underwriting income of **$11.1 million** in Q1 2025, an increase from **$9.5 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio increasing to **80.7%** from **77.1%** year-over-year E&S Property - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 59.0 | $ 47.9 | +23.2% | | Net premiums earned | $ 57.8 | $ 41.4 | +39.6% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 11.1 | $ 9.5 | +16.8% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 51.6 % | 46.4 % | +5.2 pts | | Combined ratio | 80.7 % | 77.1 % | +3.6 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 28.4 % | 11.9 % | +16.5 pts | - The combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development decreased to **52.3%** in Q1 2025 from **65.2%** in Q1 2024, indicating a significant improvement in underlying performance[40](index=40&type=chunk) [Total Excess & Surplus Lines](index=17&type=section&id=Total%20Excess%20%26%20Surplus%20Lines) The Total Excess & Surplus Lines segment reported an underwriting income of **$10.7 million** in Q1 2025, a decrease from **$14.0 million** in Q1 2024, with the combined ratio increasing to **92.5%** from **87.6%** year-over-year Total Excess & Surplus Lines - Key Financials (Quarter-Ended Mar. 31) | Metric ($ in millions) | Mar. 31, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2024 | YoY Change | | :--------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :--------- | | Net premiums written | $ 149.7 | $ 125.0 | +19.8% | | Net premiums earned | $ 142.9 | $ 113.0 | +26.5% | | Underwriting income (loss) | $ 10.7 | $ 14.0 | -23.5% | | Loss and loss expense ratio | 61.6 % | 56.7 % | +4.9 pts | | Combined ratio | 92.5 % | 87.6 % | +4.9 pts | | Net catastrophe losses | 11.5 % | 4.3 % | +7.2 pts | | (Favorable) unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development | — | — | N/A | | Combined ratio before net catastrophe losses and prior year casualty development | 81.0 % | 83.3 % | -2.3 pts |

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Selective Insurance, driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Selective Insurance is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of +240.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $1.31 billion, indicating a growth of 9.7% compared to the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting stability in analyst expectations [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Selective Insurance is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.94% [11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [9]. - However, Selective Insurance currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Selective Insurance was expected to earn $1.89 per share but only achieved $1.76, resulting in a surprise of -6.88% [12]. - The company has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [13]. Conclusion - While Selective Insurance is not positioned as a compelling earnings-beat candidate, investors should consider various factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [16].

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is trading at a premium compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, with a price-to-book value of 1.69X, higher than the industry average of 1.55X, but lower than the Finance sector's 4.12X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 8.01X [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Selective Insurance shares have decreased by 4.7% over the past year, underperforming the industry, sector, and Zacks S&P 500 composite, which grew by 17.2%, 18.1%, and 8.8% respectively [3] - The stock closed at $87.44, which is 15.5% below its 52-week high of $103.56, and is trading below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $87.75 and $90.59, indicating downward momentum [4] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 122%, with revenues projected at $5.33 billion, reflecting a 9.5% year-over-year improvement [8] - The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings per share and revenues suggest increases of 13.9% and 7.7% respectively from the 2025 estimates [8] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Three out of five analysts covering SIGI have lowered their estimates for 2025, and two have done so for 2026 over the past 60 days, with the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings down by 2% and for 2026 down by 0.6% [9] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Selective Insurance is expected to achieve after-tax net investment income of $405 million for 2025, driven by improved book yields from fixed-income securities in a higher interest rate environment [7][15] - The company has demonstrated a nine-year CAGR of nearly 8.8% in dividends, with a recent 9% hike approved for the quarterly cash dividend in Q3 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.7%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.2% [16] Group 5: Operational Efficiency - The return on equity for Selective Insurance in the trailing 12 months was 8%, surpassing the industry average of 7.8%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [17] Group 6: Market Position and Challenges - Selective Insurance is well-positioned to benefit from strong renewal rates, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions, and higher income from fixed-income securities, although challenges such as exposure to catastrophe loss and rising expenses remain [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance (SIGI) has experienced a 3% decline in share price over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about its future performance leading up to the next earnings release [1] Estimates Movement - Fresh estimates for Selective Insurance have trended downward over the past month, indicating a negative outlook [2] VGM Scores - Selective Insurance holds a strong Growth Score of A but has a low Momentum Score of F. The stock has a value grade of B, placing it in the top 40% for this investment strategy. The aggregate VGM Score for the stock is A, which is significant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Outlook - The overall trend of estimates for Selective Insurance has been downward, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [4] Industry Performance - Selective Insurance is part of the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Another player in this sector, Progressive (PGR), has seen a 4.5% increase in share price over the past month. Progressive reported revenues of $20.62 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.7% [5] Progressive's Earnings Expectations - Progressive is projected to report earnings of $3.76 per share for the current quarter, which represents a year-over-year increase of 41.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Progressive has changed by +8.3% over the last 30 days, maintaining a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of A [6]