Group 1 - Selective Insurance (NASDAQ: SIGI) is one of the largest insurance carriers in the U.S., specializing in commercial and personal insurance coverages [1] - The company also operates in the excess and surplus market, indicating a diverse portfolio in the insurance sector [1] - The CrickAnt, an actuary, contributes to the Cash Flow Club, focusing on company cash flows and access to capital, which may provide insights into investment opportunities in the insurance industry [1] Group 2 - The Cash Flow Club offers features such as access to a leader's personal income portfolio targeting yields of 6%+, community chat, and a "Best Opportunities" List, which may be beneficial for investors [1]

Financial Performance - Revenues for Q1 2025 reached $1,285,186, a 10% increase from $1,164,959 in Q1 2024[73] - After-tax net investment income rose to $95,621, reflecting a 12% increase compared to $85,640 in the previous year[73] - Net income available to common stockholders increased by 34% to $107,596 from $80,218 in Q1 2024[73] - Non-GAAP operating ROE for Q1 2025 was 14.4%, exceeding the 12% target and up from 11.7% in Q1 2024[75] - Net Premiums Written (NPW) increased by 7% to $1,240,443, and Net Premiums Earned (NPE) grew by 10% to $1,158,757 in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024[81] - Underwriting income rose significantly by 140% to $45,637 in Q1 2025, compared to $19,031 in Q1 2024[81] - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $284.0 million in First Quarter 2025, compared to $114.2 million in First Quarter 2024[154] Combined Ratio and Underwriting Performance - The combined ratio improved to 96.1%, down 2.1 points from 98.2% in Q1 2024[73] - The combined ratio improved to 96.1%, down from 98.2%, reflecting a 2.1-point decrease year-over-year[81] - The combined ratio improved by 2.6 points to 97.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a decrease in the loss and loss expense ratio to 66.6%[102] - The loss and loss expense ratio for Standard Commercial Lines improved to 63.8%, down from 66.7% in Q1 2024[91] - The combined ratio for Commercial Property decreased by 10.2 points to 83.9% in Q1 2025, with net catastrophe losses significantly lower at $16.4 million[104] - The combined ratio for Workers Compensation increased by 26.6 points to 105.9% in Q1 2025, impacted by higher current year casualty loss costs[106] - The loss and loss expense ratio for Standard Personal Lines improved by 7.3 points to 73.9% in Q1 2025, aided by a favorable prior year casualty reserve development of $5 million[110] - The combined ratio for E&S Lines increased by 4.9 points to 92.5% in Q1 2025, with loss and loss expense incurred rising by 37% to $87,990[113] Business Growth and Strategy - New business moderated as rate increases accelerated, but policy retention remained strong[79] - The company added 30 agency locations in Q1 2025, contributing to a net increase of 200 agency locations in 2024[79] - The company expects to write new business in Kansas, Montana, and Wyoming by the end of 2026[80] - Overall renewal pure pricing across insurance segments was 10.3%, up 2.2 points from the previous year[80] - The thirteen states added since 2017 produced $350 million in premium, representing approximately 10% of Standard Commercial Lines NPW[80] Investment Performance - Total invested assets grew by 7% to $10,295,310 thousand as of March 31, 2025, up from $9,651,297 thousand at December 31, 2024[119] - Net investment income earned increased by 12% to $95,621 thousand in Q1 2025 from $85,640 thousand in Q1 2024[121] - Net unrealized losses before tax decreased by 26% to $(232,510) thousand in Q1 2025 from $(314,680) thousand in Q1 2024[119] - The annualized after-tax yield on the investment portfolio decreased slightly to 3.8% in Q1 2025 from 3.9% in Q1 2024[121] - Net unrealized gains on equity securities increased by 52% to $1,050,000 in Q1 2025 from $692,000 in Q1 2024[122] Capital Management - The company maintains a solid capital base and high-quality underwriting portfolio, enhancing financial strength and underwriting capacity[152] - The company may take various actions to manage capital, including contributing capital to Insurance Subsidiaries and repurchasing shares[151] - The company issued $400 million of 5.90% Senior Notes due 2035, resulting in net proceeds of $395.9 million, which includes a $200 million capital contribution to the Insurance Subsidiaries[139] - The company repurchased 233,611 shares of common stock for $19.4 million, with $56.1 million of remaining capacity under the share repurchase program as of March 31, 2025[140] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had GAAP stockholders' equity of $3.3 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 21.7%[144] Tax and Regulatory - Federal income tax expense for Q1 2025 was $28,990,000, up from $20,048,000 in Q1 2024, resulting in an effective tax rate of 21.2%[123]

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance reported solid Q1 2025 results, maintaining full-year GAAP guidance of a 96%-97% combined ratio, driven by pricing discipline and portfolio optimization [4][8][11] Financial Performance - Combined ratio for Q1 2025 was 96.1%, including 3.7 points of catastrophe losses and 0.4 points of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development [11] - Return on equity and operating return on equity were both 14.4% [3][11] - Net premiums written grew by 7%, primarily from excess and surplus lines and standard commercial lines, while personal lines premiums decreased by 12% due to profit improvement actions [8][11] - After-tax net investment income was $96 million, up 12% year-over-year [3][11] - Book value per share increased by 5% during the quarter [3] Pricing and Underwriting - Overall renewal pure pricing increased by 10.3%, up 2.2 points year-over-year, with personal lines renewal pure price at 24.1% [3][4][9] - Standard commercial lines renewal pure price was 9.1%, with general liability at 12% and commercial property and auto both exceeding 10% [3][9] - Workers' compensation pricing remained negative at approximately -3% [5][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company added 30 new agency locations in Q1 2025 and expanded into 13 new states since 2017, contributing $350 million in premiums written for standard commercial lines during 2024 [5][9] - Management expects rate changes to remain above loss trends but moderate compared to 2024 increases [5][9] Market Environment - The insurance industry faces significant macroeconomic uncertainty, including financial market performance and potential recession risks [9][10] - Social inflation continues to impact average casualty severities, prompting the company to focus on restoring consistent underwriting margins and operating ROEs [9][10] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio remains conservatively positioned, with total fixed income and short-term investments representing 92% of the portfolio at quarter-end [11] - The average credit quality of the portfolio is A plus, with a duration of 4.1 years [11]

INVESTOR PRESENTATION First Quarter 2025 Copyright © 2025 by Selective Insurance Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Exhibit 99.3 SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT INTRODUCTION Every day, our interactions with our customers and distribution partners reinforce the importance of our role in rebuilding lives and businesses, making communities safer, and supporting economic expansion. We make certain statements and reference other information in this presentation that are "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a combined ratio of 96.1% for Q1 2025, with after-tax net investment income of $96 million and a return on equity of 14.4% [7][27] - Net premiums written increased by 7%, driven by growth in excess and surplus lines and standard commercial lines [7] - Personal lines premiums decreased by 12% as part of a strategy to improve profitability [8][14] - Net income available to common stockholders rose by 34% in the quarter, with fully diluted EPS and non-GAAP operating EPS both at $1.76 [27][28] - Book value per share increased by 5% due to profitability and a reduction in after-tax net unrealized fixed income security losses [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Standard Commercial Lines reported a combined ratio of 96.4%, with renewal pure pricing increasing to 9.1% [11] - Excess and surplus lines saw a 20% growth in policy count and an average renewal pure pricing increase of 8.7% [12] - Personal Lines delivered a combined ratio of 98%, with renewal pure pricing at 24.1% despite a 58% decrease in new business [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall renewal pure pricing across all insurance segments was 10.3%, which is approximately three points above the loss trend assumption [10] - The company added 30 new agency locations in Q1 2025, contributing to geographic expansion and market share growth [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to restore consistent underwriting margins and operating ROEs, focusing on pricing new and renewal business based on loss trends [9][10] - Investments in technology and artificial intelligence are prioritized to enhance underwriting scalability and improve claims outcomes [25] - The company is committed to disciplined underwriting and will not sacrifice profitability for growth [21] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged significant macroeconomic uncertainties, including financial market performance and potential recession risks, but remains focused on long-term value creation [19][20] - The company expects to maintain its full-year guidance for a combined ratio between 96% and 97% and an operating ROE in the mid-teens [8][36] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $19.4 million of common stock during the first quarter, with $56 million remaining under its repurchase authorization [31] - The investment portfolio is conservatively positioned, with 92% in fixed income and short-term investments, and an average credit quality of A+ [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide updates on casualty loss trend assumptions? - Management confirmed that casualty loss trends remain at about 8.5%, with general liability trends around 9% driven by severity [42][43] Question: What are the implications of seasonality this year? - Management indicated that the anticipated seasonality is largely driven by non-catastrophe property, consistent with historical patterns [54][58] Question: How is the competitive environment affecting pricing? - Management noted that their pricing targets are likely above the broader market, impacting new business but maintaining strong retention rates [81][84] Question: Have there been any changes in pushback from agents regarding pricing? - Management stated that there has not been significant pushback from agents, although there is ongoing concern about rate fatigue among customers [110][111]

Core Insights - Selective Insurance reported revenue of $1.29 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a 10.2% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.3 billion by 0.89% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.76, up from $1.33 in the same quarter last year, but below the consensus estimate of $1.89, resulting in a surprise of -6.88% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Underwriting expense ratio was reported at 31.6%, matching the four-analyst average estimate [4] - Loss and loss expense ratio stood at 64.4%, slightly better than the 64.6% average estimate [4] - Combined ratio was 96.1%, outperforming the average estimate of 96.4% [4] - Net premiums earned were $1.16 billion, slightly below the $1.17 billion estimate, but represented a 10.3% increase year-over-year [4] - Net investment income earned was $120.70 million, compared to the estimate of $123.30 million, marking a 12% year-over-year increase [4] - Standard Personal Lines net premiums earned were $103.70 million, below the estimate of $110.06 million, showing a minor decline of 0.1% year-over-year [4] - Standard Commercial Lines net premiums earned were $912.20 million, slightly below the estimate of $914.23 million, but reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Excess and Surplus Lines net premiums earned were $142.90 million, exceeding the estimate of $142.47 million, with a significant year-over-year increase of 26.5% [4] - Other income was reported at $5.50 million, below the estimate of $7.82 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 29.5% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Selective Insurance have returned +1.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -6.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Selective Insurance (SIGI) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.76 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.33 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. While Selective Insurance has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the co ...

Financial Performance - Gross premiums written for Q1 2025 reached $1,428.8 million, a 8.5% increase from $1,321.9 million in Q1 2024[8] - Net premiums written increased by 14% year-over-year to $1,240.4 million, compared to $1,089.6 million in Q1 2024[8] - Net income available to common stockholders for Q1 2025 was $107.6 million, compared to $80.2 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 34.3% increase[8] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q1 2025 was $107.4 million, compared to $81.5 million in Q1 2024, marking a 31.8% increase[8] - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $95.6 million, slightly down from $97.3 million in Q4 2024[16] - Net premiums earned reached $912.2 million, up from $834.1 million in the same quarter last year[22] - The company reported a GAAP underwriting income of $10.7 million, compared to $14.0 million in the prior year[33] - Net income available to common stockholders for Q1 2025 was $107.6 million, an increase from $93.2 million in Q4 2024[48] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q1 2025 was $107.4 million, compared to $99.6 million in the previous quarter[48] - The diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 was $1.76, up from $1.52 in Q4 2024[48] Underwriting Performance - Underwriting income before tax improved significantly to $45.6 million, up from a loss of $173.7 million in Q2 2024[8] - The loss and loss expense ratio improved to 64.4% from 67.0% in Q1 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[8] - The GAAP combined ratio for Q1 2025 was 96.1%, a decrease from 98.2% in Q1 2024, showing improved operational efficiency[8] - GAAP underwriting income for Q1 2025 was $45.6 million, significantly up from $16.8 million in Q4 2024[19] - The combined ratio improved to 96.1% for Q1 2025, down from 98.5% in Q4 2024, indicating better underwriting performance[19] - The combined ratio improved to 96.4%, down from 98.8% in the same quarter last year, indicating better underwriting performance[22] - The loss and loss expense ratio decreased to 63.8%, compared to 66.7% in the prior year quarter[22] - The underwriting expense ratio was 32.5%, slightly up from 31.7% in the prior year quarter[22] - The combined ratio for the quarter was 92.5%, a slight improvement from 87.6% in the same quarter last year[33] - The loss and loss expense ratio decreased to 61.6% from 56.7% year-over-year[33] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased to $14,197.6 million, up from $12,056.1 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 17.7%[8] - Total assets increased to $14,197.6 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $13,514.2 million at December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 5.0%[13] - Total liabilities rose to $10,939.0 million as of March 31, 2025, from $10,394.1 million at December 31, 2024, an increase of 5.2%[13] - The company maintained a debt to total capitalization ratio of 21.7%, up from 14.3% in Q1 2024, indicating increased leverage[8] - The ratio of debt to total capitalization increased to 21.7% in Q1 2025, up from 14.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a higher leverage position[16] Investment Performance - Total investments increased to $10,288.6 million, up from $9,641.8 million, representing a growth of 6.7%[42] - Fixed income securities at fair value reached $8,630.0 million, accounting for 84% of total investments, consistent with previous quarters[42] - Short-term investments rose to $631.1 million, a significant increase of 24% compared to $509.3 million in the previous quarter[42] - Equity securities at fair value increased to $266.5 million, up from $213.6 million, reflecting a growth of 24.7%[42] - The weighted average credit quality of fixed income and short-term investments remained stable at A+[42] - The company holds $134.5 million in U.S. government obligations, which is 2% of total fixed income investments[42] - Private equity funds have a remaining commitment of $322.6 million, indicating ongoing investment strategies[43] - Total fixed income investments at carry value amounted to $8,888.2 million, showing a consistent trend across reporting periods[42] - The number of alternative investment funds is 99, with a total market value of $783.6 million[43] - The company maintains a non-investment grade credit quality of 3% within its fixed income and short-term investments[42] Pricing and Business Growth - Direct new business written was $251.3 million for Q1 2025, compared to $232.0 million in Q4 2024, showing growth in new business acquisition[19] - Renewal pure price increases averaged 10.3% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 10.7% in Q4 2024, reflecting stable pricing trends[19] - Direct new business written was $172.2 million, showing an increase from $172.1 million in the same quarter last year[22] - Renewal pure price increases averaged 9.1%, up from 7.6% in the prior year quarter[22] - Net catastrophe losses for the quarter were $19.8 million, compared to $38.5 million in the same quarter last year[22] - Net catastrophe losses for the quarter were $16.4 million, compared to a gain of $2.9 million in the prior year[33]

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is currently experiencing a short-term bullish trend, trading above its 50-day simple moving average, despite a 17.2% decline from its 52-week high [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of April 11, 2025, SIGI's share price was $86.63, down from a 52-week high of $104.67 [1]. - SIGI has underperformed the industry with a year-to-date loss of 7.4% [5]. - The average target price from seven analysts is $93.57 per share, indicating a potential upside of 8.8% from the last closing price [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $7.43, reflecting a 127.2% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected to rise by 10.4% to $5.4 billion [14]. Valuation Metrics - SIGI shares are trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.8, which is higher than the industry average of 1.61 [9]. - Return on equity for SIGI was 7.3%, below the industry average of 8.3% [18]. - Return on invested capital was 3.7%, lagging behind the industry average of 6.4% [20]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to improve organic growth by appointing new distribution partners to achieve a 25% agent market share and expanding into new states [21]. - SIGI has successfully expanded its commercial lines presence to 27 states and plans further geographic expansion [22]. - The company estimates an after-tax net investment income of $405 million in 2025, supported by a growing invested asset base and higher book yields [23]. Market Position - SIGI's wealth distribution strategy includes regular dividend increases and share buybacks, with a dividend yield of 1.8%, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [25]. - Despite a favorable leverage position, increasing expenses have impacted margin expansion, leading to a cautious outlook on the stock [26].

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) is expected to grow due to rising premiums driven by solid renewal pure pricing, high retention, and new business growth in Commercial Lines and Excess and Supply Lines [1] Earnings History - SIGI has consistently underperformed, lagging earnings estimates in the last four quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 58.78% [2] - Over the past five years, earnings have declined by 4.3%, while the industry average growth was 19.3% [2] Factors Favoring SIGI - The company is focused on improving organic growth, with its Commercial Lines business increasing its share of distribution partners' overall premium to 12% and aiming for a 25% agent market share [3] - SIGI's overall premium is expected to benefit from improved pricing, new business growth, and a high retention ratio [3] Geographic Expansion - SIGI relies on geographic expansion for growth and diversification, successfully expanding in New Hampshire and the Southwest region, including Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Mexico [4] - The company now has a commercial lines presence in 27 states and plans to expand further [4] Investment Performance - Despite a low interest rate environment, SIGI has delivered impressive investment results, with net investment income expected to grow due to an increased invested asset base and higher book yields [5] - The company regularly raises dividends and buys back shares, offering a higher dividend yield compared to its industry, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [5] Concerns for SIGI - As a property and casualty insurer, SIGI is exposed to catastrophe losses from natural disasters, which can induce underwriting volatility and affect the combined ratio [6] - The company estimates a GAAP combined ratio of 96% to 97% in 2025, including net catastrophe losses of 6 points, with an underlying combined ratio expected in the 90-91% range [6] Financial Metrics - SIGI's debt levels have remained stable, with leverage comparing favorably to the industry average, but its times interest earned is unfavorable compared to the industry [7] - The company expects the expense ratio to increase to approximately 31.5% in 2025, driven by rising expenses primarily due to increasing loss and loss expense [7] Return on Capital - SIGI's trailing 12-month return on equity was 7.3%, below the industry average of 8.3%, indicating inefficiency in utilizing shareholders' funds [8] - The return on invested capital in the trailing 12 months was 3.7%, lagging the industry average of 6.3% [8] Key Industry Players - Other notable players in the insurance industry include The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Kingstone Companies (KINS), and Palomar Holdings (PLMR) [9]