Group 1 - The analyst has 5 years of experience managing a technology fund and has a background in Mechanical Engineering from Brazil and France [1] - The focus of the analysis is on investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector, robotics, and energy, emphasizing companies in oligopolistic markets with high barriers to entry [1] - The investment strategy prioritizes growth at a reasonable price with a mid- to long-term investment horizon [1] Group 2 - The analyst has previously worked in the oil and gas sector before transitioning to global equities and semiconductor research [1] - The analyst has completed CFA Level II in 2024 and is licensed by the Brazilian Securities Commission as a portfolio manager and investment consultant [1] - The analyst aims to provide small investors with valuable investment ideas through published articles [1]

JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...

Group 1 - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares fell 18% on Wednesday, reaching $46.88, marking a total decline of 24% for the week, although the stock is still up 56% year-to-date [1][4] - The decline was triggered by disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $0.41 per share, missing the Wall Street estimate of $0.45, and down from $0.63 a year ago. Revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $5.8 billion but fell short of the expected $6 billion [4] - The adjusted gross margin decreased to 9.6%, below the anticipated 10%, raising concerns among analysts [4] Group 2 - CEO Charles Liang mentioned production scaling challenges due to limited working capital, which the company is addressing through a $2.3 billion convertible bond offering initiated in June, following a $700 million raise in February [5] - Super Micro provided weaker-than-expected guidance for its fiscal first-quarter revenue and earnings but projected a more optimistic long-term revenue of $33 billion for fiscal 2026, significantly higher than analysts' $20 billion estimate [6] Group 3 - Analysts have mixed views on SMCI stock; Bank of America maintained an 'Underperform' rating with a $37 price target, citing ongoing margin pressure and potential delays in customer purchases due to upcoming Nvidia GPUs [7] - Conversely, Needham maintained a 'Buy' rating and raised its price target from $39 to $60, highlighting potential for margin recovery and growth opportunities in new markets, particularly in Direct Liquid Cooling and Building Block Solutions [8]

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings of 41 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.8%, and reflecting a year-over-year decline of 34.9% [1][10] - The company's fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues were $5.76 billion, which also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.82%, although it showed an 8.5% year-over-year improvement and a 25.2% sequential increase [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from Server and storage systems, which constitute 97.6% of total revenues, increased by 10% year over year to $5.62 billion, while revenues from subsystems and accessories decreased by 48% to $139 million [3] - By geography, the United States accounted for 38% of total sales, down 33% year over year, while Asia represented 42% of revenues, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 91% [3] - Revenues from Europe accounted for 15% of total revenues, showing a year-over-year increase of 66%, and revenues from the Rest of the World accounted for 5%, increasing by 53% year over year [4] Customer Vertical Performance - Enterprise/Channel revenues totaled $2.1 billion, accounting for 36% of total sales, with a year-over-year increase of 7% and strong sequential growth of 6% [5] - OEM Appliance and Large Data Center verticals contributed $3.7 billion, representing 63% of total fourth-quarter revenues, while the Emerging 5G, Telco, Edge, and IoT verticals accounted for only 1% of total revenues [5] Operating Metrics - SMCI's non-GAAP gross margin was 9.6%, reflecting a decline of 70 basis points year over year and 10 basis points sequentially, primarily due to an unfavorable product and customer mix [6] - Non-GAAP operating expenses increased by 29% year over year to $239 million, although they declined by 11% sequentially, driven by heavy investments in next-generation AI systems and expansion of production capacity [7][8] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, total cash and cash equivalents were $5.17 billion, up from $2.54 billion in the previous quarter [9] - Operating and free cash flow for the reported quarter were $864 million and $841 million, respectively [9] Future Outlook - SMCI forecasts fiscal 2026 revenues of at least $33 billion, with first-quarter sales expected to be between $6 billion and $7 billion [10][11]

Super Micro Computer SMCI shares are trading lower on Wednesday after the company reported worse-than- expected fourth-quarter financial results. The semiconductor maker issued first-quarter EPS and adjusted EPS guidance below estimates, and cut its fiscal 2026 sales guidance on Tuesday. Wall Street analysts raised their price forecasts on the stock. Also Read: Can Super Micro's AI Demand Outpace Profit Margin Fears? Needham Bolton stated that Super Micro reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results that fel ...

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) aka "Supermicro" reported its fiscal Q4 '25 earnings yesterday evening, and the stock quickly saw a 20% slide . Going into earnings, shares were in the $58 range, and now inI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’ ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Major US stocks surged following strong earnings reports, with Shopify rising over 23%, Astera Labs increasing by over 34%, and Arista Networks climbing over 17% [1][4] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.33%, the Nasdaq by 0.83%, and the S&P 500 by 0.67% during the trading session [2] - Apple announced a commitment to invest $100 billion in domestic manufacturing, raising its total investment in the US to $600 billion [2] Group 2: Earnings Reports - Shopify's Q2 revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue growth of 25% to 29% for Q3 [4] - Astera Labs reported Q2 revenue of $191.9 million, a 150% year-over-year increase, and raised its Q3 guidance [4] - Arista Networks achieved Q2 revenue of $2.21 billion and earnings per share of $0.73, both surpassing market expectations [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that two rate cuts by the Fed this year are reasonable due to a cooling labor market [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has surged to 93.2% according to CME FedWatch [5][6] - Concerns about tariffs and their impact on inflation remain a significant uncertainty for the Fed's policy decisions [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley warned of potential market adjustments in Q3 due to tariff impacts and Fed policy shifts, predicting a 5% to 10% pullback [6] - Despite short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley believes the current bull market is not over, supported by expected earnings growth and resilient valuations [6][7]

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) is showing signs of a breakout ahead of its earnings report, with options activity indicating a potential inflection point [1] - The stock has experienced an upward movement, aligning with the anticipated breakout [1] Company Analysis - Leadership & Management: The company has a proven track record in scaling businesses, smart capital allocation, and insider ownership, which contribute to consistent revenue growth and credible guidance [1] - Financial Health: Super Micro Computer demonstrates sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a long-term survival runway while avoiding excessive dilution [1] Market Positioning - Competitive Advantage: The company possesses a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, along with network effects that drive exponential growth in high-growth industries [1] Investment Methodology - Valuation: The analysis includes revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling, ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential [1] - Portfolio Construction: The investment strategy includes core positions (50-70%), growth bets (20-40%), and speculative investments (5-10%) to balance risk and reward [1]

Super Micro Computer posted quarterly results that missed analysts' forecasts as the server maker said it faced higher costs from tariffs and changes required by a major customer. https://t.co/VoGd4reGr5 ...

Market Overview - On August 6, US stock indices opened higher, with significant gains in several stocks [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 13.10 points (0.03%) to 44,124.84, the Nasdaq increased by 85.95 points (0.41%) to 21,002.50, and the S&P 500 gained 14.98 points (0.24%) to 6,314.17 [2] Company Performance - Astera Labs, a Silicon Valley semiconductor company, saw its stock price surge over 35% following an upgrade from investment bank Stifel, which raised its target price from $110 to $145, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the company's future [4][5] - Shopify's stock rose nearly 20% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.68 billion, exceeding the expected $2.55 billion, with an EPS of $0.69 against an estimate of $0.21 [6][7] - Supermicro Computer's stock dropped over 19% after reporting Q4 revenue of $5.76 billion, which was below the analyst expectation of $6.01 billion, and significantly lowered its FY2026 revenue forecast from $40 billion to $33 billion [8] - Apple's stock increased over 3% after announcing a commitment to invest $100 billion in domestic manufacturing in the US, aiming to localize more supply chain components [9][10] - Tesla's stock rose over 2% as CEO Elon Musk announced the training of a new fully autonomous driving model, expected to be ready for public release by the end of next month [12][13][14]